2008-09 Tennessee Basketball Preview

In the early months of 2006, somewhere along the initial joy ride that Bruce Pearl took the Vols on, he made the comment on one of his postgame shows that "this basketball team carried us through the winter."

And he was right. A fanbase starved for success after the 5-6 debacle of the 2005 football season turned mere curiosity towards the basketball team and their new coach. Expectations were low, Pearl was an unknown quantity, and a team that underachieved with Buzz Peterson lost its two best players in Scooter McFadgon and Brandon Crump. The Vols weren't expected to do anything, and so that winter was especially depressing with no bowl game, a bleak outlook in football and a fanbase who needed a reason to care about basketball.

We were bought into the multi-year rebuilding process. But instead, Bruce Pearl gave us the world overnight.

Pearl changed everything. He woke a sleeping giant fanbase at a university that was excelling at every other sport they played. He took average players and made them key contributors like Dane Bradshaw, and made good players NBA ready: CJ Watson currently averages 7 points and 24 minutes a night out in Golden State.

Pearl changed the perception and the reality the way Kevin Garnett did in Boston. And he shot down the idea of a multi-year rebuilding project, something that may not pay dividends for our next football coach...especially after the '06 football Vols responded to Pearl's hope by blasting Cal right out of the gate. He's created a landscape and a culture of instant success.

Because that first team got us through the winter.

And now, in his fourth season, we need him to get us through again.

The football team is inexplicably even worse than it was back then. And make no mistake that the two are connected on major college campuses; in Gainesville, Columbus, Austin and many other places, there's always a connection, even if it's small.

And so a starved fanbase in Knoxville turns once more to Pearl to save us.

Only this time, we're not expecting a multi-year rebuilding project.

This time, the Vols are ranked #13 in the preseason poll. This time, the Vols are the defending SEC Champions. This time, we're coming off back-to-back appearances in the Sweet 16. And this time, there's a clearly established culture of winning, and one that's ready to take the next step in basketball.

And keep in mind that all of this has been done and created, all these expectations in place for 2009, all without the services of Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, Jordan Howell, Ramar Smith, and Duke Crews.

Tennessee graduated one of the very best to ever put on a jersey in Knoxville, his partner in crime, 95% of the point guard minutes between Howell's graduation and Ramar's dismissal, and a firecracker in Duke Crews. That's all kinds of multi-year production that just left the still-growing program.

Most would catch their breath and rebuild. The Vols? Preseason #13 and SEC favorites.

Because of Pearl.

Because Pearl brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation. Because Pearl convinced Tyler Smith to stay in school one more year. Because Bruce Pearl has changed everything. Everything.

And now, with a new cast of characters in a more experienced SEC that the Vols are still expected to win...now we'll see just how far this change can take us.

Because we need it to make it through the winter one more time.

Point Guard
Well...there are more encouraging places to start.

Bobby Maze steps in from the unknown in an attempt to provide both spark and stability to a position that really hurt the Vols last season. Ramar Smith's lack of productivity and Jordan Howell's ice cold shooting touch gave way to JP Prince earning some minutes there, but none of it worked the way the Vols needed it to in March. The news today that Daniel West is academically ineligible puts a dent in expectations and even more weight on Maze's shoulders, because he is now the only "pure" point guard on this roster.

Two years ago, Maze overcame a broken foot to average 5.6 points per game for Oklahoma. Landing at Hutchinson Community College last season, Maze was a first-team junior college All-American with 20.7 points and 6.8 assists per game. There will be some growing pains here and we won't know fully what we've got in Maze until SEC play gets underway. But the Vols need him to be good. Prince should continue to provide the backup minutes now that West is out, with Josh Tabb another possibility.

Shooting Guard
Without Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith bombing threes, it's going to feel different.

But thanks to the gem of the recruiting class, 6'7" Scotty Hopson, that might be good different.

Hopson - ranked as the 5th overall player in the 2008 class nationally - can shoot the three, but will give a whole new dimension to the Vols offense from the wing. The Hopkinsville, KY native looks to follow in Lofton's footsteps in more ways than one, while establishing his own legacy in Knoxville. The fact that Hopson finished third in the McDonald's All-America dunk contest should give you an idea that we're dealing with a different animal here.

Hopson is still a freshman, so we'll try and keep expectations hovering below the stratosphere. There is experience at the position: defensive specialist Josh Tabb returns, though as stated he'll see some point guard minutes potentially. And then there's Cameron Tatum, back from a redshirt season but ready to contribute. The Vols need Tabb and Tatum to display some stroke from behind the arc to compliment Hopson here.

Small Forward
At the most versatile position we start with JP Prince, who might be the Vols' most versatile player. On a more crowded team last season as the new guy, Prince showed flahses of brilliance - carrying the Vols to a win at Xavier with 23 points, and coming up huge in the showdown game at Memphis with 13 points and 8 rebounds. His productivity will again be hampered by injury and playing out of position with his PG minutes, but he's clearly a factor no matter where he plays. When Prince moves to point guard, it opens up an opportunity for freshman Renaldo Woolridge, a California grab who was a Top 50 recruit, another young face the Vols need to contribute right away.

Power Forward
Tyler Smith proved he was the real deal last year, both in terms of versaltility, dependability, and the ability to hit the big shot and make the big play. In what's widely believed to be his last season in Knoxville, the junior picked up not only first team preseason All-SEC honors, but received some votes for preseason All-America. With Lofton gone, Smith becomes the Vols' definitive go-to player, and outside of the three ball jacking with many of the shooters gone, his numbers should go higher this season. Tyler Smith has a chance to really shine on this team.

Speaking of versatility, Ryan Childress doesn't get enough credit for his, having shown both a three ball stroke and more toughness than expected at both ends. He'll be fighting for minutes with newcomer Emmanuel Negedu, a Top 40 recruit who fell into the Vols' lap late in the process.

Center
With Ramar Smith and Duke Crews gone, Wayne Chism becomes the face of Pearl's first recruiting class, now in his third season. More of the offense should be run through the post this year, so there's pressure on Chism to step up and play to his full potential night in and night out. When he's doing so, he's one of the best big men in the SEC, and the Vols need that on a regular basis. We'll see if he's still jacking threes this season.

While freshman Philip Jurick progresses, the Vols will continue to turn to Brian Williams for minutes, who was impressive in spurts and usually very productive last season. The media guide puts BWill down at a svelt 267 lbs...might need to be seen to be believed, but he's a force either way.

The Schedule
Bruce Pearl does a better job of scheduling than just about anyone I've seen - the early "cupcakes" are always with in-state teams, which I like, and the Vols rarely play an out of state mid-major that isn't a favorite in their own conference. The tuneups this year start Saturday against UT-Chattanooga, followed by UT-Martin before giving the Murfresboro crowd something to cheer about in a trip to MTSU.

Then the Vols head to Orlando for the Old Spice Classic on the last weekend of the month, where they'll open with Siena (last seen destroying Vanderbilt in the opening round of the dance). The field includes Michigan State, Maryland, Georgetown and Gonzaga, who will also show up at Thompson-Boling Arena in January.

The big non-conference games are everywhere. There's the SEC/Big East Challenge in Nashville against Marquette. There are road trips to Temple and then to Kansas to play the defending champs on January 3. That begins the most loaded men's basketball month I can ever remember, which will go like this: at Kansas, vs Gonzaga, at Georgia in the SEC opener, vs Kentucky in the ill-scheduled SEC home opener, vs South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, vs Memphis, vs LSU, vs Florida. Five of the first seven SEC games will be played at TBA.

The schedule calms down a bit in February in terms of opponent quality, but a four-of-five road swing in late February/early March that includes trips to Lexington and Gainesville should make up for that. The Vols close the regular season on March 8 at home against Alabama, before heading to Tampa for the SEC Tournament.

And in case you're curious, the Final Four is in Detroit.

Final Thoughts
Chemistry is always a concern in college basketball, especially when you're shuffling out five key contributors from last season, replacing them with four freshmen and a juco expected to see minutes, and fitting those guys in with a solid group of returning players, including several potential all-conference stars. Rotations will be key, and the point guard issue must be resolved early lest it come back to bite the Vols in March again.

These things take time.

While the youth is growing, this team may take some bumps early. Tennessee hasn't won a tournament of any kind since Jerry Green was here, and there's plenty of talent in Orlando that will look to prevent that again this year. The Vols are guaranteed three games either way, but it would be great to just start with a win against Siena. Kansas and Memphis may be down but Gonzaga is up and Marquette is very good. I will say that Pearl has lost only one non-conference game he shouldn't have lost in three years, against Wichita State in the '06 NCAA second round.

Tennessee is picked to again be the best team in the SEC. Florida is the most likely challenger with plenty of options led by Nick Calathes. Kentucky has talent in Patrick Patterson but also must replace key losses, as does Vanderbilt with AJ Ogilvy but no Shan Foster. And the SEC West should continue to be an exercise in the dartboard, but Alabama and LSU are both receiving votes in preseason Top 25s. The conference will have its surprises and disappointments...but right now the Vols are the favorites, and as defending champs they've earned that right. Now they have to carry it forward.

It's hard to say how far this team should go because you just haven't seen the youth and the chemistry. We trust Pearl to take care of the latter, but you'll need to see them against the SEC and the big non-conference players before we know anything with greater certainty. The Sweet 16 still exists as the ceiling for this program; the Vols have never been to the Elite 8. As we celebrate 100 Years of Tennessee Basketball, Pearl will continue to try and write new traditions. In today's college basketball world it's hard to think to the future because so many players leave school early, and the Vols will probably see their share of that in the spring. But right now, Pearl has assembled a mix of talent and youth that, over the course of this season, could gel into something very dangerous by the time March rolls around, and are already in the conversation ranked 13th in the preseason. The journey is the fun part.

Above all else, we believe in Pearl. In three seasons he's done what no one, probably not even Bruce himself, thought he could do. The Vols have won the SEC East twice and are now the defending SEC Champions. They've cracked the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament two years in a row. They've recruited McDonald's All-Americans, put a player in the NBA and probably another in the rafters someday. They've developed talent to the point that the preseason All-SEC Player of the Year resides in Knoxville. And the Vols are the favorites in the conference itself. Again.

From no expectations to here, and what a ride...now, can the Vols take the next step?

All our hopes and all our rewards of the last three years have been wonderful. Tennessee Basketball has come to a new place. And now, with faces young and old, we turn to Pearl again to carry us forward, over the course of this season, to that next step. To take us from this place, through growth and teamwork, to the next step on this journey. Through the winter. Because he's already given us something to believe in. And beyond the winter, to March, where a team's ultimate success is determined.

Bruce Pearl has taken us this far and delivered the goods in greater quantity and quality than we ever thought possible in only three seasons. Our hope springs eternal, from the deathbed of a football season gone so wrong, to Pearl and the basketball Vols once more. And this time, there's a little more proof in our pudding.

Yes we can.