Will: Alright, so right away I'm in need of the opinion of someone who's capable of being more objective than me...because for me, last season had everything. The most competitive playoff race in professional sports history in the Western Conference, where all eight teams won 50 or more games. The most interesting MVP race in recent memory, featuring two of the best to ever play the game in their prime (and the guy who should've won it down in New Orleans). An insane trade deadline. And some classic playoff moments, from the opening Spurs/Suns game, to the Pierce/LeBron Game 7 duel, to the ultimate Celtics/Lakers Finals payoff. And as a Celtics fan, winning Banner 17 with the new big three means I'm reluctant to even start talking about a new season because I'm still enjoying the last one.
Factor in the Olympic gold medal, and it's been an incredibly good year for professional basketball. It seems like an in credibly healthy moment for the league, and with good timing to overshadow the dark clouds of Tim Donaghy and the Sonics. So having said all that, what do you think about the overall health of the league, and what are you looking forward to this season?
Jeff: Whoa. Not given to hyperbole are we? "The most competitive playoff race in professional sports history in the Western Conference…" – that, my friend, is a big statement. In all honesty though I really don't disagree with anything you've written. I'm as excited about professional basketball today as I have been at any point in my life (yes, that includes the heyday of Michael, Magic, and Larry).
I spent the preseason last year telling everyone who would listen that the league had reached a talent level on par with the early 90s. It is no secret that the league hemorrhaged fans just after Jordan, the middle class just unable to connect with Iversonian players. However, I think the league would have been able to maintain much of the profile built by Jordan even with the generational gap if the talent level would have remained high. Alas, just as Iverson's generation became the face of the NBA the talent level dropped precipitously (remember the year when Kenyon Martin, Mike Miller, and Stromile Swift were the first three picks?). The combination of gangstas and mediocrity became a poisonous cocktail for the NBA.
The good news is that now not only is the talent back but the players themselves seem to be cut from the same material as the luminaries of the early 90's. It is now safe to like the NBA's biggest stars again.
This was clearest during this year's Olympic Games. The players carried themselves with class and played with passion. If you don't think that can win fans you didn't see me cheering for Kobe Bryant even though I mortally oppose everything that he is. You can be cynical – and perhaps correct – and say that it is merely marketing awareness that is behind the change in how players approach the fanbase. Whatever the reason, it is great for the league, great for basketball as a sport, and great for me as a fan.
So to answer what I'm looking forward to I'm going to cop out and just say the NBA being back on. I love basketball, professional basketball, the way fat kids love candy – there are simply too many elements to pick just one as the thing to look forward to. I can, however, give a few quick-hits on what I am intrigued by:
- The further exploits of Lebron James and Dwight Howard. I will argue to the death that these
two young men represent the pinnacle of physical basketball ability and maybe even the potential of the human body. There has simply never been a physical specimen comparable to Lebron. Add in his skill level and if you aren't watching him you are intentionally missing athletic history. Dwight Howard is perhaps comparable to a young Shaq but only in the in the way Windows 98 is comparable to Windows XP – and that is no insult to Shaq. He and Shaq are in the same genre but the execution with Dwight is simply more advanced at comparable stages.
- We have this year the rare season which sees two number-1-overall picks make their debut at the same time. I'm a sucker for potential and adding Greg Oden to the Derrick Rose/Michael Beasley/OJ Majo rookie class offers almost more than I can take.
- Finally, welcome to the return of parity. As was previously noted, the West is so evenly matched and loaded with talent that the addition of Shaq and Jason Kidd actually hurt their respective team's chances. The East is no longer the ugly secret of the NBA (although the league should still change their playoff format to get the best teams in, regardless of conference). The defending champs probably have one more elite run in them, the Pistons continue to find ways to stay young and thus extend their window, the Sixers have Elton Brand now, the Raptors continue to grow, and the Heat added Michael Beasley to a roster which welcomes a newly healthy Dwayne Wade back after he put on a show against the world's best talent. I'm not afraid of run-on sentences because it takes a lot of commas to express how radically the East has improved in a very short time.
I have questions I’m more interested in seeing you answer (Example: can the Celtics' old legs survive another year of Doc Rivers' rotations?) but I'm going to start off on a less personal subject: tell me about the rookies. Specifically, who will be the ROY and who from the lottery will be the biggest bust?
WILL: Dodging that personal jab at the C’s – well, not completely dodging it, because I’ll say that despite all the NBA Finals love he got last season, Rivers will be the first one to get blamed if the Celtics don’t make it back there this season – I’ll also say that I’m officially on the Michael Beasley bandwagon. I think the kid is a production machine and you haven’t seen anything in preseason yet to dispute it, his body and his role are more NBA-friendly than what Kevin Durant saw last season, and as I’m sure we’ll get to, even though they only won 15 games last year, a healthy Miami team should be a competitive Miami team. I think Beasley has a shot to both make the AM SportsCenter highlights on a regular basis, and actually be a good player too.
When dealing with the rookies, I tend to swing back to my collegiate emotions with nothing else to go on, which instantly makes me against guys I didn’t like in March, like the Lopez thugs (the sort of guys I’d enjoy if they were on the Celtics, but since they’re not I can’t help but hate them). In talking about busts, I was thinking about OJ Mayo because I’m just not sure he’s in the same class as Rose and Beasley (and because it’s not very professional to type “Rose, because he went to Memphis and I hate those guys”)…but then Mayo hit six threes the other night, so we’ll back off.
But what about Eric Gordon? Doesn’t he seem to be the perfect scenario for disaster? He comes out of one of the more tumultuous college situations in recent memory at Indiana. He plays for the Clippers, which would be bad enough, but they unintentionally reshuffled their deck this offseason, and while they might be good…they’re the Clippers, so I’m still gonna lean towards not-so-much. And Gordon is the fabled “combo guard”…and in a league where the word combo is best used today to describe 6’10” guys who can shoot the three, I’m not sure a 6’3” guy who won’t run point on a team with Baron Davis is gonna find his role real well. He seems to be the highest pick I’m least sure about…not counting guys from Italy that I haven’t seen.
What about you – who do you like and dislike among the rookies? And do you agree about Miami being potentially dangerous in the East, or do you see someone else rising from the ashes?
Jeff: Your Beasley comments are spot on in terms of what he could (and most likely will do) on the court. I do have reservations about how mentally ready he is to live in South Beach. If you 
are hooking fellow players up with weed at the NBA Rookie Transition meetings what will you get into when you live in Vegas South? When the character concerns were raised before the draft I thought they were unfounded. After the stuff with Chalmers and Diogo I'm not so sure. However, just as his potential for self-destruction in Miami is limitless, so is his opportunity for success on the court. This really could be the perfect storm of intrigue around a young player. He could absolutely go either way just as easily. If he was woken up by the meeting incident and dedicates himself to ball he might not only win the ROY but also make an All-Star debut as a rookie. At this point I would label him my pick for ROY as well but I have to acknowledge that he could possibly end up being Michael Ray Richardson 2.0. I'd add Russell Westbrook in as a dark horse. He earned his ticket into the NBA surpassing expectations and I think he'll have all kinds of opportunity alongside Kevin Durant.
Your commentary on Gordon does indeed read like 10 minutes before basketball apocalypse. Still, I'm going to hold out hope for Gordon. As you mentioned, he played in one of the most challenging college basketball environments in recent memory and played well when healthy, even developing as a player. No, the Clippers didn't do enough to replace Brand and no, I wouldn't want Baron Davis mentoring my young combo guard. Even so I just don't want to jettison hope for Gordon yet.
My pick for bust remains Kevin Love. I have serious reservations about his ability to compete athletically in the NBA and I do not understand how he fits in Minnesota with Al Jefferson. I have no doubt he'll be a serviceable NBA rotation player for years (12 points, 7 rebounds, and enough beautiful chest passes to give Bill Walton a coronary) but he was the 5th pick in the draft. If that is what you want why not trade back and get a Lopez brother at a cheaper price?
Also, as I mentioned, how do you play him with Jefferson? They both need to be PF and neither has given any reason to believe they can be productive playing up as a C. Love is just entirely out of place on that team. The rest of their rotation is built on athleticism (see: Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Rodney Carney, Rashad McCants); Love stands out like a sore thumb. Maybe they think he'll be the rebounding-passing initiator but playing him with your best player
compromises your interior defense. I don't know, maybe I'm reading the situation all wrong. Or maybe (and this might be more likely) Kevin McHale has fully embraced the T-Wolves as a Triple-A feeder program for the Celtics and is grooming Love to eventually play in Boston.
In the east I see 7 clear cut playoff teams: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Orlando, Toronto, and Miami. Then you are left with Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington competing for the final spot. Those final three have serious issues – Chicago: chemistry, Atlanta: being Atlanta + the loss of Childress, Washington: injuries (again!) – and I don't know which will rise. To answer your specific question, yes, I think Miami can rise in the east. D Wade was the guy who I couldn't take my eyes off of in the Olympics. Not only was his play startling after watching him play crippled last season but also because he seems to be more polished and motivated than ever. If he plays like he did in China you could probably stick him on a good D-league team and they'd make a run. We've already covered Beasley. Miami, however, is another team that confuses me and that's why I list them toward the bottom of the playoff teams. 3 of their best 4 players should be playing PF. Marion is a good SF, no doubt, but he's truly special when he can use his quickness to create match up problems as a PF. So not only do you have he, Beasley, and Haslem needing to play the 4 spot but if you play Marion at the three you are only getting 85% percent out of your second best player. I also don't know who plays in the back court with Wade. Chalmers? Wright? I have no idea. It probably doesn't matter because I have a feeling Wade is going Supernova this year but if I were Riley I'd be calling Chicago to see if Haslem (and possibly Wright or Chalmers) would get Heinrich.
To finish up this section let me switch conferences: last year Dallas and Phoenix did what fans wish their teams would do: pull off gutsy moves at the deadline to make a run at a title. Obviously, it worked out poorly for both squads. Neither team made radical changes in the off season, apparently thinking more time to gel will fix the problem. So which (or both, or neither) bounces back this year?
Will: Dallas hasn't gotten over Game 3 of the 2006 NBA Finals yet. What the Heat started on that night, Golden State finished off in 2007, and that desperation move for Kidd couldn't resurrect it. I think the worst thing for Kidd's career at this point was to put him on an Olympic team with Chris Paul and Deron Williams - glad he got the gold, but he's 35 and it's showing. I like Nowitzki but I don't think he's a guy who wins you a title without someone better around him than anyone currently on the Dallas roster. And I guess it shows the difference between fan and player perception, since I keep reading about how many Dallas players threatened to quit if Avery Johnson was retained as coach. The West is too tough; I think Dallas is a borderline playoff team.
Phoenix, on the other hand, can't get past San Antonio, which may not be a problem for either of them as they continue to age. Part of me just thinks that as Shaq knows in full that his career is winding to its close, he's got one more strong run in him. Part of me wonders what percentage of the Suns' massive regular season success was the product of Mike D'Antoni. But given the choice between the two, I think Phoenix has one more run in them, while the window in Dallas is closed (if only temporarily, because what Mark Cuban wants eventually I think he'll get).
Agree/disagree? Leave your picks for rookie of the year, lottery busts, and teams rising and falling in both conferences in the comments. We'll be back with more later on the MVP race, as well as our picks for the playoffs and the NBA Finals.
.png)
0 comments:
Post a Comment