The Final Week of the Regular Season

Games 30 and 31 will help determine the next piece of the Vols' 07-08 basketball puzzle, as we move from the final days of the regular season into the frenzy of Championship Week and then March Madness. Tennessee stands 26-3, 12-2 in SEC play, #4 in the polls and #1 in the RPI. It's been good so far, and that's an understatement. This week will answer the final questions of just how good the regular season can be, and lay the foundation for the more important postseason work.

Here's what we know: the Vols have clinched a share of the SEC Eastern Division and have clinched a first round bye in the SEC Tournament, which means I don't have to skip class next Thursday, hooray. The Vols have tied the all time school record for victories in a season with 26, set back in 2000 under Jerry Green. And even if the Vols somehow lose their final two regular season games this week and get bounced on Friday in the SEC Tournament, I still don't see them falling below a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and I still don't see the first two rounds for the Vols being played anywhere other than Birmingham, AL.

We also know that Vanderbilt and Mississippi State have put the deadbolt on their NCAA Tournament resumes, and that there are still four other SEC teams who still believe they are in the mix for an at-large bid, while Alabama and Auburn will spend the week trying to stay at or above .500 so as not to miss out on the NIT.

What's on the line this week for the Vols, who will play at Florida on Wednesday night (9:00 PM, ESPN Full Court and Raycom on local listings) and home for senior day against South Carolina on Sunday (2:00 PM, also ESPN Full Court and Raycom on local listings):

- It's easier to explain it this way: the only way Kentucky ties the Vols for the SEC East title is by winning BOTH of their final two games (at South Carolina, vs. Florida) AND having the Vols lose BOTH of their final two games (at Florida, vs. South Carolina). Any Kentucky loss OR any Tennessee win means the Vols will take the SEC East outright, which would be two division titles for Bruce Pearl in three years. It is worth noting that should the above apocalypse scenario happen, the Cats would get the #1 East seed in Atlanta based on a better division record.

- Tennessee has a one game lead on Mississippi State (and two on Kentucky) for the SEC Championship race. The Vols did beat the Bulldogs in Starkville, however, I think that ties are not broken when it comes to the regular season championship. Since divisional play began in 1992, there has yet to be a season where one team from the East and one from the West finished with identical records atop their divisions, so if it happened this year it'd be a new thing. However, I know that in 2000, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and LSU all finished 12-4, and all four were awarded a share of the SEC Championship. The fact that the Gators went 1-3 against Tennessee/Kentucky that season and yet still shared in the conference championship suggests to me that ties are not broken. But the Vols can win the title outright by staying a game ahead of Mississippi State, who plays at Vanderbilt Wednesday and home to LSU on Saturday. The Bulldogs, of course, could also win the title outright with two wins and two Tennessee losses. By the time the Vols and Gators tip off at 9:00 tomorrow night, Tennessee will know if both Kentucky and Mississippi State have won or lost, and if the Bulldogs lose in Nashville, the Vols can win the SEC Championship tomorrow night. If both win, the Vols can wrap it up on senior day. An SEC Championship of any kind would be the first since 2000, and an outright title would be the first since 1967.

- If the Vols finish first in the SEC East, it appears that one half of their potential opponent on Friday will be South Carolina, who is two games ahead of last place Georgia. The #1 East seed plays the winner of #4 West vs. #5 East on Thursday. The #4 West business is a lot more complicated - it would be LSU if the tournament was today, but it could still be any one of Alabama, Auburn, LSU or Ole Miss. If the Vols do finish first in the East, they'll play all of their SEC Tournament games at 1:00 PM, Friday-Saturday-Sunday if they kept winning.

- Going deeper to the NCAA Tournament picture, as stated I think at this point it's impossible that the Vols go anywhere else but Birmingham for their first two games. There are 8 sites for first and second round games throughout the country, which are no longer tied to specific regions further down the bracket. Starting with the one seeds, the first two rounds are placed based on proximity to the highest seeds; teams as low as a 4 seed could still play games relatively close to home, and the one and two seeds are virtually guaranteed a great opening draw.

The first and second round sites are as follows: Anaheim, Birmingham, Denver, Little Rock, Omaha, Raleigh, Tampa, and Washington DC.

Six games are played at each site; the first and second round being played there means that if a one seed is placed in Anaheim, whoever the 8/9 matchup is in the same bracket also goes to Anaheim. Likewise for a 2 seed in Birmingham and the 7/10 matchup, and on down the line. The breakup of the regional distinction a few years ago means that, for instance, in the East Region, you could have the 1/16 & 8/9 games being played in Raleigh, and the 4/13 & 5/12 games being played in Tampa - it doesn't have to matchup for the Sweet 16 anymore. I'm sure all of that is perfectly clear.

Okay, the real point - right now, with two games plus conference tournaments left to play, who are the contenders for #1 and #2 seeds?

Generally speaking, you're still looking at Duke, Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, Tennessee, and Texas in the running for #1 seeds. Just based on those teams, none of them are going to be competing with the Vols for the Birmingham spot - Duke and Carolina can both play opening games in Raleigh, Memphis would rather go to Little Rock, and everyone else is across the Mississippi. Even losing three straight between now and selection Sunday, I'd say it's a safe bet to pack those bags for Birmingham in the opening round.

The real pressing issue for the Vols is Sweet 16/Elite 8 location. Whether it's as a one seed or a two seed, you want the East Region. Your Regional Final choices are as follows: Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Phoenix. You don't need a map to figure that one out.

The biggest problem here is that the Vols could easily get stuck in the middle - playing good enough to earn a #1 seed, but not good enough to be the #1 overall seed. If the Vols are behind Duke or North Carolina in the selection committee's mind, but still good enough to be a #1 seed, the Tobacco Road winner is going to get the Charlotte region, and the Vols will be playing somewhere else. One could make the argument that it would be better to be a #2 seed and play in Charlotte than be a #1 seed and play in Detroit or Houston, but then you've also got to figure that if the Vols are in the East Region with either Duke or Carolina, those tickets are going to be hot anyway. This is getting about three light years ahead of ourselves, but if the Vols are matched up with Duke or Carolina in Charlotte, Vol fans need to ante up and get tickets muy rapido, or else those are going to turn into hostile environments regardless of who's the one seed. I think we'd come through.

That's all ridiculous speculation that I'm free to make for the first time in my life since the Vols can still earn the #1 overall seed. So here comes more ridiculous speculation: let's take a look at the road remaining for each of the #1 contenders before they each go to their conference tournaments:

Duke: at Virginia, vs. North Carolina
Kansas: at Texas A&M
Memphis: at SMU, vs. UAB
North Carolina: vs. Florida State, at Duke
UCLA: vs. Stanford, vs. California
Tennessee: at Florida, vs. South Carolina
Texas: vs. Nebraska, vs. Oklahoma State

So again, for the Vols, even though for some it may feel like we're just winding to the finish, these games this week are important. The outright division and conference titles are on the line. A #1 seed and the #1 overall seed are still on the line. And next week, which we'll discuss further then, a chance to do something in Atlanta and play on Saturday for the first time in the history of the divisional format. None of them are givens. All of them will count.

Plus, the Vols still carry the bullseye. Gator fans who are feeling nervous about their selection promise are pointing to Wednesday and Tennessee, not Sunday at Kentucky, as their best chance to make a statement and get the win that puts them in. That's weird, isn't it? But it's also very true. Tennessee can lock up some championships Wednesday night, but the Gators can lock up an NCAA bid. This game is huge, as they've all been for the last two weeks.

Bruce Pearl has said it, and I'm sure it's true: the Vols wouldn't face a tougher road from the Sweet 16 in than at Memphis, at Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky, at Florida. It's worn on us and you can see the scars. If I'm just a fan and I'm worn out, I can only imagine where the players and coaching staff are. But now is not the time to phone it in.

What's more interesting is the scoring potential tomorrow night. The Vols have put up 60s in their last three big games, and to their absolute credit they won two of them. Against the Gators the first time around, the Vols scored 104 in Knoxville. If Tennessee puts up 60s again on Wednesday at the O'Dome, then I'll start worrying. Pearl has said that outside of Lofton and JaJuan, the Vols don't have much confidence from the three point line right now. And that just sounds all wrong. How is it that a team that can put a lineup of Howell, Lofton, JaJuan, Childress and Chism on the floor is lacking confidence from the perimeter? Yet that's exactly where we are right now.

The cream has to rise to the top in this game for the Vols or anyone to have success at tournament time. I still feel like we haven't seen our best basketball, and we're 26-3 and #1 in the RPI. Through the fatigue and grind of the regular season, the Vols have to keep pushing. I'd love to see the scoring outburst tomorrow night and build some confidence. More than anything, I'd love to see another W. All this speculation is fun, but the most important game this time of year is the next one. Tennessee needs to go to Gainesville and lock it down. Winning on Wednesday puts us one step closer to the ultimate goal. Right now, beating Florida is the only step that matters.

Expect to win.