Turning the page towards November

In the SEC...
For many who are still in the hunt in the East, which is everyone, it's a down week - Georgia has Troy, Kentucky is off, the Vols get the Cajuns, and yes, Florida plays Vanderbilt. But while the most important game in the East is a season-on-the-line duel between South Carolina and Arkansas in Fayetteville, and the eyes of the nation will be on the Oregon/Arizona State top five showdown, all eyes in the conference will be set towards Tuscaloosa for the potential SEC West Championship between the Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers. If Old Saban wins, LSU can essentially punch their ticket to Atlanta - they'd have to lose both of their final two games (at Ole Miss, vs Arkansas) to go anywhere but. But if New Saban wins, it'll put Auburn back in the race, and Alabama will control its own destiny. Given that the core of LSU's roster are Les Miles born and bred and not old Saban recruits, and given that Saban is given credit for being a genius and Miles is given credit for being lucky, I wouldn't be totally surprised if a superior LSU team went down to T-Town and wrecked the place. But I also wouldn't be surprised by anything this year.

Meanwhile, if you're a bowl representative, you might as well send a scout to every game from this point on: eleven SEC teams have five wins - sorry Coach O, your Rebels are 2-7 and won't be going anywhere - and you can make an argument that all eleven will get to six and become bowl eligible.

Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU and Auburn are already there with six wins (LSU is 7-1). You have to assume that Florida (Florida Atlantic) and Tennessee (LA-Lafayette) will get there with non-conference wins. That's eight in, with Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt all needing just one conference win (or Vandy can beat Wake Forest). Mississippi State can get theirs by winning the Egg Bowl, Arkansas can get theirs by beating Mississippi State, and if Vandy gets an upset or beats Wake, all eleven could get in without any major shakeups.

The SEC has only eight guaranteed bowl slots: the conference champion to the Sugar Bowl if not ranked 1 or 2 in the BCS, and then the Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A, Music City, Independence, and Liberty Bowls. If an SEC team earns a BCS at-large bid - which at this point only appears likely if LSU is 11-1 and then gets upset in the SEC Championship Game, but you never know - that makes nine spots. So you'd still have to find two or three at-large bids to potentially fit all eleven teams in. Only the Poinsettia Bowl has a designated at-large bid, and so otherwise you would need a conference to not have enough teams with six wins to fulfill their bowl contracts. The rule about allowing 6-6 teams in may be challenged in the future to change it to 7-5. This also means that a team like Tennessee can't afford to finish 6-6 - or possibly even 7-5 - and then just assume they'll find their way to a bowl game. More than one someone could be left behind.

The current SEC bowl projections from CollegeFootballNews.com:
- Sugar: LSU
- Capital One: Georgia
- Cotton: Alabama
- Outback: Auburn
- Chick-Fil-A: Tennessee
- Music City: South Carolina
- Independence: Mississippi State
- Liberty: Florida
- Armed Forces: Kentucky (no Pac-10 team available)

In the NFL...
When I was in middle and high school, growing up in East Tennessee, you really had two options: you were a Cowboys fan, or you were a 49ers fan. With the Titans still the Houston Oilers and Peyton Manning still thinking about who to take to the prom, you gravitate towards the national powerhouses. And in the early 90s, between Joe Montana and Brett Favre, you had four years of Cowboys/Niners warfare from 1992-1995.

During this span, Dallas won three Super Bowls and the Niners won the other one. The two teams would square off in three straight NFC Championship Games in 92-94, with the Cowboys winning the first two and the Niners the third. But they also annually squared off about this time of year in the annual regular season game of the year. There was no comparison.

I fell on the Cowboys side of the fence, which I'm sure started with my Dad talking about Bill Bates and was helped along when they drafted Alvin Harper. Given the choice between the two, the Cowboys had cooler uniforms and better attitude. Adult Will would've gone for the Niners, but Junior High Will wasn't so mature and informed and didn't see things that way. So the flash of Dallas won over the more recent tradition and determination of the 49ers.

The Cowboys had arguably the greatest offense of all time - Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Daryl Johnston, Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and a great offensive line. Regularly, I would get into arguments with my friends at school about Emmitt Smith vs. Barry Sanders, and they'd always make the very solid point that if Barry had Emmitt's talent around him, he would've won three Super Bowls too. On defense, the Cowboys lined up names like Russell Maryland, Charles Haley, Ken Norton Jr., and others. Several players, including Deion Sanders, would play for both teams during the rivalry's run.

The 49ers moved past the Joe Montana generation but didn't suffer much, as Steve Young took over the reigns. Ricky Waters was the new Roger Craig. Jerry Rice was the old Jerry Rice. The Niners would add guys like William Floyd and rotated veterans on defense to keep pace from their end. It was always one or the other, and no one else in the NFL was close for those four years. Everything and everyone else was an afterthought.

These days, East Tennessee folks are either Titans fans, or they'll love the Colts until Peyton Manning retires. Folks here in Virginia are tied to the Redskins. But in neutral cities and among the general populace, I wonder if it's not the same thing again today. As the Colts and Patriots get set for what Chris Berman refers to as Super Bowl 41.5, it seems like there's nothing else on the NFL landscape at all.

Like the early 90s, one conference is definitively better than the other, though in this case it's now the AFC that's in charge. And like the early 90s NFC, there are several quality teams in the AFC - Tennessee (the ugliest 5-2 you'll ever hear on the radio), Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and maybe even San Diego after all - who are simply lost in the shuffle behind the two giants. But just like those old Cowboys/Niners wars, this Sunday's unbeaten showdown between the two best teams and biggest rivals of this decade has become the most anticipated sporting event of 2007 since...the last time they played each other.

Once again, you've got All Pros on both sides. The Patriots, surprisingly, will be playing the role of the flashy favorite, with the sexiest quarterback alive, Randy Moss being Randy Moss, Wes Welker continuing to give hope to white kids everywhere, a star studded defense, and a coach who will definitively run up the score. And now it's the Colts who seem like old news instead of the high powered offense, with Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison feeling like old hat. Nevermind the fact that they're the undefeated defending champs, the Pats are the favorites, the Pats - three titles in their own right this decade - are the new thing.

I'm still a Titans fan 100%, and so if I'm being totally honest, I'll tell you that a Colts loss helps the Titans in the division race. But I'll also tell you that I don't like Belichick and I do like Peyton Manning, of course, so I'll be watching with interest and would rather have the Colts lose somewhere else. Dallas showed that it's not impossible to play with New England, and I'm sure the Colts will be ready and have - gasp! - had their number of late. Should be very entertaining and will be must-see-TV.

In the World Series...
It's over. So much for a competitive series.

In the NBA...
The regular season tips off tomorrow, though you'll have to wait until Friday to see YOUR Boston Celtics - on national TV, thank God, for the first of many this season - in an already interesting game with the Washington Wizards and Gilbert "Halo 3" Arenas, who's on record as saying they're going to run Boston to death. Tangible excitement for Vols and Celtics basketball? I don't know what to do with myself.

In the WWE...
Last night, for the first time since WrestleMania, I threw down the money for a WWE pay per view, because Cyber Sunday looked good on paper coming in and offered the tease of Chris Jericho's return. And the event was okay - though for my $39.95 I'd like more than okay - but we got no Jericho, got a cheap DQ finish in the Randy Orton vs. Shawn Michaels WWE Championship Match (though the slow motion replay of Orton ducking the superkick and hitting Michaels low for the DQ might be the smoothest thing I've seen in wrestling this year), and somehow saw the fans vote for a streetfight instead of a cage or first blood match in the Triple H/Umaga match. I will give credit to Batista and The Undertaker, who - and I never would've thought this - have now put on four great matches this year. They got the main event last night, and Batista got a clean pinfall victory over The Undertaker, which evens the rivalry now at 1-1-2, and was a great decision by the writers. We also got to see Stone Cold Steve Austin as the voted in referee, and another good call by having Batista and Taker be the show, and not have Austin stunner both of them, as I was expecting.

So with no Jericho at Cyber Sunday, the focus now turns to RAW tonight, as all the ad campaigns have been pointing towards tonight. Jericho is in Philadelphia - where RAW is tonight - for a book signing this afternoon. When Jericho first came to WWE, it was one of the biggest live RAW moments ever. Tonight could be another one of those big, must-see TiVo moments.

The setup is also in place for a DX return - Michaels and H haven't been on screen at the same time since HBK's return a few weeks ago - but the announced main event for tonight is a handicap match between Triple H and Randy Orton/Umaga. So we should see DX unfold there - will Jericho also interject himself into that main event, or will he fall somewhere else? With Edge returning at Survivor Series in four weeks, and with the always fun 10th Anniversary of The Montreal Screwjob upon us, this should continue to be a surprisingly exciting time in the WWE, and credit them for rebounding from death, scandal and injury as well as possible. Let's just hope the payoff at Survivor Series is bigger than it was last night.

Because only God knows what'll happen next

Ladies and gentlemen, your SEC East Division leaders.

Outscored 145-68 in three losses. Outgained 1535-1042 in those same games. Sporting a 5-3 record with a coach with one foot in the frying pan and one foot in Atlanta. Ranked a pedestrian 24th in the AP poll. And a fanbase that can't wait to talk basketball.

Not only that, but a team that found a way to capitalize on every mistake in the first half last night against South Carolina, and then found a way to blow the largest lead a Tennessee team has blown since Auburn, circa 1990 (which ultimately ended in a tie, which set the table for this to be yet another 2007 historic performance to forget had the Vols lost). A team that gave up over 300 yards in the second half to a South Carolina offense that managed six points against Vanderbilt the week before, while the offense played three and out for most of the same time period. A team whose head coach made what could've been his most idiotic move of all time in wasting a time out in a freeze attempt on Ryan Succop, a time out the Vols could've used to try and win the game in regulation instead of having to spike the ball and kick, after Erik Ainge inexplicably did the one thing he couldn't do by taking a sack and fumbling the football on the final offensive play of regulation. This after Arian Foster was headed back towards counseling for another fumble at the absolute worst time, which was recovered by a hustling Jacques McClendon, which became our best offensive play of the second half. Then decided Daniel Lincoln should kick from 48 yards instead of 43, which is good because he duck hooked that attempt after it was blown dead for a false start. Then decided it wasn't stressful enough, we had to play the most tense situation in college football - a first possession field goal in overtime, meaning the game can end either side on any play with a turnover or a touchdown.

And then suddenly, after all that...South Carolina missed a field goal, and it was over. The roller coaster came to a sudden stop...and inexplicably, you looked around and saw the ride was over, and we were still on top. And not just on the scoreboard...in your newspaper on Sunday morning in the SEC East standings. Again. Blew our chances by losing at Florida, got back in it. Blew our chances by losing at Alabama, got back in it. And appeared to have blown our chances by choking away a 21-0 halftime lead, and once again the Vols found their way back to the top.

Hook and crook, the Vols are in first place.

I had told friends of mine earlier in the week that the word that best described my feelings about Saturday's game was "curious". I was curious to see how we would respond after Alabama. I was curious to see how Carolina would respond after Vanderbilt. I was curious to see our offense against the best defense it had seen all year, and I was curious to see our defense against the worst offense it had seen all year. I was curious to see if this season could be saved, or if we were going in the tank again. Curious.

And "curious" should never be the dominant emotion in regards to Tennessee Football. We should be talking about "excited" or "ready". Or even "nervous" or "angry". The opposite of love isn't hate, it's indifference. And curious leans in that direction.

Curious is the same word I would use to describe my feelings about Florida and Georgia in the Cocktail Party before kickoff, only with the word "mildly" in front of it. I'd already sat here and watched Auburn pull of the improbable major SEC upset of the year last month in Gainesville. We'd already been rewarded with a second Florida loss in Baton Rouge. And when Kentucky couldn't stop them last week, you figured that we weren't good enough to be in the conversation anyway after the Alabama debacle, and if Florida was going to lose again, it would be to South Carolina. Because in the SEC in my lifetime, it's death, taxes, and Florida beats Georgia. On Monday on this blog:

Florida is at the Cocktail Party this week, and if there's anyway for this college football season to get any more insane, it would be Georgia winning this weekend, in a series that's seen Florida win 15 of the last 17. Which is really the best reasoning I can give you for having hope that the Gators will lose this weekend. I'm just saying.

Because we'd seen Georgia. And we'd also seen Florida, along with Cal and Alabama do things to our defense that defy words or past experience. And if you were a betting man, you'd say that if they did that to us, we did that to Georgia, and then Georgia verified it by struggling mightily with Vanderbilt the following week...combined with the history, there was nothing to suggest a Georgia victory. Nothing.

But as it turns out, what started with a quote from Mark Richt - "If we don't get a celebration penalty on our first touchdown, I'll be disappointed." - turned the curiousity from mild to growing. As I was driving in from Virginia and waiting for updates from the Vol Network (bonus points for the woman who called in one of the pregame shows and said "I want to see defense, I want to see some busted knees, I want to see concussions...") and ESPN Radio, you kept thinking "It's Georgia, and it's Florida, and all those shenanigans earlier did was piss them off, and this won't last." And so they held the lead at halftime. And then they kept the lead into the third quarter. And everytime Florida scored (behind a very gutsy, if ineffective effort from Tim Tebow) and you thougt it was over, Georgia scored again. And again. And again. And suddenly, you went from being curious to be something entirely different.

Because all of a sudden, the South Carolina game went from a "meaningless" possible season-salvager but not season-saver, to the in-the-moment SEC East Division Championship Game. And you thought that, and you even read it now, that it can't be right. That Tennessee didn't have any business associating themselves with a championship of any kind. The intensity in Knoxville went from about a six to an eleven just before kickoff. All of a sudden, this became the most important game of the year.

And then, even more improbably and in more ways than one, Tennessee came out and matched that intensity. My friends and I said at halftime that we weren't even playing that well, but UT used two turnovers from Eric "Freshman All-America" Berry and one really good drive, and bang bang bang, the Vols were up 21-0 at halftime. And now your Georgia Dome reservations were becoming less Bruce Pearl and more Phillip Fulmer.

Which brings us back to the whole hook and crook thing. Because when the lead had faded and the Vols had squandered, and South Carolina had every ounce of momentum left in Neyland Stadium on their side - no joke, an observeable number of fans left the game when Erik Ainge threw his 4th quarter interception in a tie game - Tennessee still won the game. When Daniel Lincoln lined up to kick at the end of regulation, I said "We deserve to lose." And I'm the most positive and optimistic Vol fan I know - it wasn't negativity, it was honesty. But sure enough, Lincoln keeps making his case as the best kicker in the conference, and we were off to overtime. And if there's one true fact about Tennessee football, it's that you don't want any part of us in overtime.

5-1 all time in the pressure packed extra sessions, the Vols got more Daniel Lincoln for the lead, then got more good fortune when Blake Mitchell mishandled the snap to open SC's possession. Even so, on 3rd down, with the action unfolding on the opposite end of the stadium, we had a perfect vantage point to see a Carolina receiver break open and the ball leave Mitchell's hands, and as soon as it did I said "touchdown"...

...but Mitchell misfired. And we lived to play another play. And Succop, ice cold from 48 yards just minutes earlier, lined up in Collins Cooper territory. And I wonder if Steve Spurrier was thinking about that just before the kick sailed wide right.

Tennessee won the game. Tennessee is in first place. Tennessee controls its own destiny. When the folks in my churches this morning asked how I managed to stay awake on the drive home, I told them it's because I was trying to make sense of those three facts. And whether you like it or not, whatever your opinion of this season or the coaching staff, be you optimist or pessismist, facts they remain.

The Carolina game itself...I have no idea how to place or qualify it. It'll find its way to the 50 Best Vol Games list, but I don't know where you put it - it's probably the best worst played game I've ever seen. The drama was high, but the quality was low. But at the very least, it's nice to know you can still see something you feel like you've never seen before, between the blown lead, and the way the Vols seemed to have everything going against them...and they still won. Usually, that works the other way around. Usually, the other team blows the lead. And usually, Tennessee is on the losing end of games like that, where you leave thinking "we should've won" and we didn't. But regardless of anything else...Tennessee found a way and got the win, which is more important than anything else.

You can pick apart the performance - which is what they'll do in the film room, no doubt - for as long as you like. I hit the fast forward button on my TiVo for the entire 3rd quarter watching it again today because it's almost irredemable. You'd have to be blind to not have questions about our defense. You'd have to be some sort of robot from the future to not have nerves about facing Darren McFadden and Andre Woodson down the stretch. And I don't know what will happen next. But even if 5-3 is below expectations, the circumstances of the moment mean that 5-3 is good enough for first place. So the Vols continue to be more than relevant. And also in the good news department, it's the Rajun Cajuns next week in Knoxville - which means the Vols can get beat 100-0 and it won't mean a thing.

(Of course, it would mean a thing, but you get the idea.)

In this crazy season, take a look at the SEC East race, in increasing order of difficulty to win the division and make it to Atlanta:

Tennessee - win out (vs ARK, vs VAN, at UK)

Georgia - win out (vs AUB, vs UK) + 1 TN loss

Vanderbilt - win out (at FLA, vs UK, at TN) + 1 UGA loss

Kentucky - win out (at VAN, at UGA, vs TN) + eventual winner of SC/FLA loses this week

South Carolina - win out (at ARK, vs FLA) + 1 UGA loss + 2 TN losses

Florida - win out (vs VAN, at SC) + 1 TN loss + 2 UGA losses

And so as crazy as it sounds as the calendar turns towards November, nobody is realistically out of it yet. Because all of those scenarios - well, okay, except Vanderbilt winning out - could happen.

But only Tennessee controls its own destiny. So no matter where you stand on all the issues we've seen this season, the present moment dictates that the Vols are in first place. And I say any season that ends in Atlanta is a good one. If you complain about the conference being too even or being down, I'll tell you to quit whining and start enjoying things. We're not in first place - and in such dramatic fashion - every day or every year come November. It is, without question, a unique year.

The Vols have to keep getting better. Marsalous Johnson didn't play last night and is probably done for the year. Erik Young is definitely done for the year. Saturday is one of those "don't get anybody hurt" games that the Vols need to win in impressive fashion to make us all feel better and feel more confident coming home. So let's not even talk about Atlanta or even Arkansas just yet. This week, it's the Cajuns. And this week, the Vols are in first place.

Stay tuned.

Preseason College Basketball Coaches Poll

In what might be a first in school history, the Vols are ranked higher in a preseason basketball poll (7) than they were in the preseason football poll (15) in the same year. North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis are in the top three and separated by only eight votes. Tennessee Basketball tips off two weeks from tonight, against a schedule that includes the regular SEC foes (with only Arkansas and Kentucky in the preseason poll, and defending champion Florida depleted and absent), plus dates with #3 Memphis, #14 Gonzaga, and potentially #16 Texas in the Legends Classic. The other participant in last year's title game, Ohio State, is also unranked and comes to Knoxville as well.

Preseason College Basketball Coaches Poll
1. North Carolina
2. UCLA
3. Memphis
4. Kansas
5. Georgetown
6. Louisville
7. Tennessee
8. Michigan State
9. Indiana
10. Washington State
11. Duke
12. Marquette
13. Oregon
14. Gonzaga
15. Texas A&M
16. Texas
17. Arizona
18. Southern Cal
19. Arkansas
20. Pittsburgh
21. Stanford
22. Kentucky
23. Southern Illinois
24. NC State
25. Villanova

Virginia Tech gets the video game treatment

I play a healthy amount of NCAA08 online on my XBOX360 - right now I'm 41-33 and ranked somewhere in the Top 3000 in the world, which is impressive only if you know how many people play the game online, which I'm not looking up. I've been playing the EA Sports incarnation of this game since its beginnings as Bill Walsh College Football back in 1993 on the Sega Genesis, and playing it online for the last four years. I'm highly competitive, both with my friends when I was in Knoxville, playing in tournaments or leagues, or playing online. Highly.

I can also tell you that new XBOX360 controllers cost as much as an actual game, which is another subject. But I know this because I've jettisoned two of them into the wall to my immediate right, leaving the battery pack in pieces and the analog control sticks bent at weird angles. And both times, it felt really good right up until I walked into GameStop and threw down $49.99 for a new one (or just $19.99 for a new battery pack when I was lucky on the angle of impact).

And I play a lot of video games that can be frustrating. Little kids cheating at Halo. Getting your party killed just before a save point in Final Fantasy. Unneccesary jumps in Ninja Gaiden. But other than my sister cheating at Mario Party 3 back on the N64 several years ago, which earned her a controller to the face, nothing has forced my hand the way that kids who are of no skill nor football knowledge, but can run around in circles with an athletic quarterback in NCAA or Madden do. I lost a PS2 controller to Vince Young in his Texas days. I've lost two up here to Pat White. It won't be the last time.

See, usually when I run into these kids online, I run an actual football offense and defense, and the guys and gals at EA Sports have finally gotten state-of-the-art enough that the game rewards you for doing so, so when they go for it on 4th and 10 in their own territory in the first quarter, I take advantage and run them. When they line up and kick onside kicks out of the gate, I house them.

(Distracting Sidenote: Hey look, Boyz II Men in the 7th Inning Stretch at Fenway! They're still around?! And they seem to have misplaced that tall guy...)

When kids run hail mary every play, I blow them out. And when I mix pass and run and disguise blitzes and all that stuff, and they keep calling the same play, the game rewards me and I win. So while little kids can still frustratingly win the day by cheating at Halo, you've actually got to be intelligent to be good at NCAA or Madden these days...

Unless you play with an athletic quarterback.

In fairness, it's gotten better than it used to be. It's not Bo Jackson in Tecmo Super Bowl:




And it's not like the early versions of NCAA Football, where you could effecitvely run the triple option with Danny Wuerffel, and every game was 56-49 and whoever had the ball last won. But still, you can take Pat White, Dennis Dixon, Juice Williams or any other fast quarterback on NCAA, or play Madden and take Mike Vick...er...Vince Young, and you can just run around in the pocket for days. And unless you compromise yourself and blitz DBs who might be fast enough to catch him, but probably won't be, little kids can run the same pass plays out of shotgun all game, and it can be maddening. Usually games like this do end 56-49, because the kids are never any good at anything else and that includes defense. And usually you can find a cover 2 scheme that'll work against this anyway, and it's only a minor frustration combined with a thankfulness that it's gotten better than it used to be.

But every so often, you run into kids that execute this "offense" perfectly, and you yourself turn it over multiple times, usually to fumbles that occur with no real rhyme or reason, and you end up losing. Painfully, at the end of the game. When you try and rush Pat White on the final drive, he waits until the last second and then makes an athletic move that your defensive lineman or linebacker can't possibly recreate on the video game, and you're left grasping at air and waiting for the inevitable: that a wide receiver, or more likely a stray back or tight end, will eventually bust your coverage, and you'll give up six and lose. This is when the controller meets the wall.

It never works that way in real life. Not with any consistency, never. Maybe in high school, maybe. But never in college or the NFL, because everyone is too fast and no QB can evade that well all the time. Never happens.

It especially doesn't happen on a rainy Thursday night in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech hasn't lost on Thursday night since 1995, and that's the only time they've lost. It doesn't happen against the lunchpail defense of Bud Foster and BeamerBall. It doesn't happen when said defense has turned Heisman candidate/northeast regional frontrunner Matt Ryan into a below average quarterback all night, and shut out the #2 team in the country for 58 minutes. And it doesn't happen when Matt Ryan definitely would not fall under the "athletic quarterback" banner. And besides, this is Virginia Tech's year.

(Distracting Sidenote 2: The World Series keeps getting better - it's the Season 7 trailer for 24 during a commercial break! And Tony Almeida is apparently alive...and...evil?...24trailer.com)

So, when Matt Ryan starts dodging VT defenders left and right in leading the Eagles downfield 91 yards for a touchdown on a picture perfect spot ball to make it 10-7, it's almost comical but you're still not worried. Then when Boston College gets the onside kick - take that, BeamerBall - you start watching with interest. And then a tired VT defense remembers its playing in the rain, and loses its legs, because on every subsequent play, Ryan is running circles around the Hokie front seven. Literally. And on several occasions, two defenders will come at him, and Ryan does the definitive athletic QB video game move - a full stop, followed by a quick speed burst and a change of direction that no lineman has an answer for on the video game, and on this final drive, no one on VT's defense does either. Ryan is just freezing them and then running away, only to either safely throw it away or find the inevitable open man. And you can feel the frustration rising from Lane Stadium.

And he saves the best for last: after a holding call when he couldn't get away on his own, on 3rd and 20 Ryan brings out another defender-dodging run forcing VT's secondary to cover far too long, ending with a teardrop to a wide open Eagle in the corner of the end zone: Andre Callender, the inevitable running back left open behind the coverage. And Virginia Tech's defense, which was the aggressor for 58 minutes, finds itself helpless and looking for something else to throw into the wall in the final two. Especially when you watch Ryan and BC head coach Jeff Icantspellyourlastname celebrate in the immediate aftermath like kids after a backyard drawn up touchdown - which, all pardons to my southwest Virginia bretheren, I loved seeing because you usually don't see genuine on-field player/coach interactions like that. Especially when you're driving home right now wondering how that got away, still hoarse from yelling "SACK HIM!!!" every play for the last two minutes to no avail.

Ryan didn't even have a good night until the end - 25 of 52, 285 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs - but he went from the next victim against the VT defense to the second coming of Michael Vick at Lane Stadium in two drives. And so just like those little kids, you leave knowing that you were better and by all rights, you should've won. But they just kept getting away from you, and waited to break your heart and your back at the same time with 0:11 left on 3rd and 20. So I feel your pain, Hokie Nation. I feel your pain. Yours is probably a little more real, but I feel your pain. Next time someone comes over and brings up the game and the inexplicable loss, I'll show them the marks on my wall and the band-aid that failed to hold together my last good 360 controller.

At least Virginia Tech might get another chance in December.

Highlights and Analysis from ESPN:

2007 SEC Basketball Media Days

You know the times are changing when you have to qualify which media days you're talking about to a Tennessee fanbase.

Bruce Pearl, Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith will go before the press tomorrow, but the annual media predictions came out today, and the continued attempt by many in the fanbase to temper expectations continues to be fruitless: the Vols are picked to win the SEC, and it's almost unanimous. 28 of 30 voters picked Pearl's squad, with the other two votes going to Mississippi State. The full voting breakdown:

2007 SEC Media Days Predictions
Eastern Division
1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky
3. Florida
4. Vanderbilt
5. Georiga
6. South Carolina

Western Division
1. Arkansas
2. Mississippi State
3. Alabama
4. Auburn
5. LSU
6. Ole Miss

First Team All-SEC
Shan Foster, Vanderbilt
Chris Lofton, Tennessee
Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State
Patrick Beverly, Arkansas
Richard Hendrix, Alabama

Second Team All-SEC
Steven Hill, Arkansas
Charles Rhodes, Mississippi State
Tasmin Mitchell, LSU
Dwayne Curtis, Ole Miss
Tyler Smith, Tennessee

Random Thoughts - Monday October 22

Vol Football - Picking Up the Pieces
The Vols had a rare Sunday practice to try and address what need be addressed about Alabama and hopefully move on to South Carolina. The practice was, as reported by the News-Sentinel's GoVols.com, sans Montario Hardesty, who saw no action in Tuscaloosa despite being fully healthy, and this was reportedly by Hardesty's own choosing. I, like everyone, assumed Hardesty wasn't 100% when Lennon Creer got the carry on 3rd and 1, and what you heard postgame from Fulmer and Kurt Roper was less than encouraging, being that it seemed like they simply lost track of #2 and never made the effort to get him in the game. Not that Hardesty would've made the difference between winning and losing, and not that we don't have other capable backs, but it's an unsettling sort of situation in more ways than one.

Meanwhile in Vegas, the Vols have opened as three point favorites on Saturday night when #15 South Carolina comes calling. The Gamecocks and Florida are the only two teams left who control their own SEC East destiny, with the Vols in relative third place, needing only the Florida loss to control their own fate and having lost only once, to the Gators, against divisional opponents. Florida is at the Cocktail Party this week, and if there's anyway for this college football season to get any more insane, it would be Georgia winning this weekend, in a series that's seen Florida win 15 of the last 17. Which is really the best reasoning I can give you for having hope that the Gators will lose this weekend. I'm just saying.

NFL Football - Dear CBS...
How come, after you make me sit through Baltimore vs. Buffalo on my local southwest Virginia feed, instead of cutting to live action of the eventful 4th quarter of Houston/Tennessee, you make me awkwardly watch the studio crew while they watch the game, and then can only show me each play right after it happens? I'm sure there's a contract issue in here somewhere, either with the Sunday Ticket folks or somewhere else, but it was very unsettling to have to watch everything from the onside kick to Bironas' eighth and final field goal thru the eyes and mouths of James Brown, Dan Marino, Boomer Esaiason, Shannon Sharpe, and Bill Cowher, to hear and see their reactions to the play while it happens, and then getting to actually see it a play late. This is what I have to deal with instead of the live feed? It's not like the game was on Fox, it was on CBS, but we still can't cut over, really?

And I had abandoned Mike Keith because the Titans were up 22-7 at halftime when I left for a hayride with the youth up here, and I didn't see the "vaunted" Titans defense giving up 29 points in the second half, and didn't have time to fire the internet radio feed back up as the events of the last two minutes were unfolding. Lost in the shuffle of a wild and crazy game might be the performance of Kerry Collins - because the sentences "the Titans won without Vince Young" and "the Titans won with Kerry Collins" are equally impressive in their own right - but Collins was 25 of 42 for 280, no TDs but no interceptions. Even if VY can't go again next week, it's the Raiders at home, and at the very least you're not thinking "instant loss" with Collins under center guiding the rest of this no-stars offense now that this one's in the win column. Credit Collins for being especially sharp on the last drive, and Roydell Williams for making a sensational catch to set up Bironas for the NFL record. It's just that no one plays defense in this state, at least this week.

May we also take this time to thank Wes Welker for personally salvaging my fantasy season, and after giving us every chance to win last week, he turns in a huge performance again this week in doing most of the work in ending my five game losing streak. Welker is currently the 13th highest scoring player in my league, and is giving hope to white kids everywhere that yes, you too can play wide receiver. Let's also say that Tom Brady is currently almost 100 points better than the second highest scoring player (Tony Romo) in my league. Insane. We won't talk abou the Colts' chances against them until they get past their usual nemesis tonight in Jacksonville. Don't tell anyone that I won't be that upset if Jacksonville pulls the upset, just to pull the Titans closer in the AFC South race.

The World Series - A Prayer for Competitiveness
Thanks to the Boston Red Sox, we now at least have a nationally relevant World Series, and combined with the Rockies' run of insanity over the last month, you should have a good series here. For Vol fans, don't fall into the national trap of pulling for the Red Sox again, get behind Todd Helton. I know you can name Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wakefield, Papi, Manny and about a dozen other Red Sox, and all you know from Colorado is Helton and maybe Matt Holliday if you follow baseball. But the Rockies are one of those stories that you don't want to see end, and while I have no animosity towards the Red Sox, they had their turn a few years ago.

What I'd really like to see - much like in the NBA - is something interesting. And while the problem isn't as bad as it is over in the association, where you haven't had a real nationally relevant, competitive NBA Finals since the 80s, the last World Series to fall in the same category was in 2001. I realize the Angels/Giants series went seven games the following year, but that's what we call West Coast bias, so I didn't watch it and neither did you. This one will attract people from both sides of the nation, and unless the Rockies keep up the blitz or the Red Sox talent simply overwhelms, this one should be good. I promise, we're not as delusional in saying that as we were when we picked the Cavs in seven. This one gets rolling Wednesday night in Boston.

(Crowd: LET'S GO ROCKIES!)

In the Moment - Tennessee/Alabama Postgame

Alabama 41 - Tennessee 17
Some thoughts...first, credit Alabama. You dream about playing like that against your rivals, and I know the Tide folks will enjoy it, and they earned it. Congratulations.

Now that we've got that out of the way...

Tennessee's loss today, coupled with South Carolina's loss to Vanderbilt, means that only Kentucky has one loss in the SEC East. If the Gators - eight point favorites and currently tied 7-7 with the Cats - win, everyone in the SEC East will have at least two losses. And if Kentucky wins, the Vols will once again be right back in control of their own destiny.

So we say that to make a couple points...that it's a crazy year, and that it's not over.

Now, let's talk about everything else.

If you're going to get beat 59-20 and 41-17, you absolutely do not do so against Florida and Alabama if you're the University of Tennessee. You have three performances on the road that make you question everything about this team, and one performance at home to put some potentially false hope in. If you're even more optimistic than me, you could reason that the next four are in Knoxville. But the reality is, no matter how good the offense has played the majority of the time, this team as a whole has been subpar to this point. And the defense has been so unbelieveably bad, in big games like this one you feel like the offense has to score everytime they touch the ball. Alabama didn't punt today until the game was out of hand, and John Parker Wilson and DJ Hall set several Alabama records. Unacceptable.

So the circumstances of the year leave room for hope - and a tangible hope at that if Kentucky wins - but the reality of the on-field product leaves room for speculation and great disappointment. So even if UK wins today, and before you even deal with questions of if the Vols are good enough to beat them, or Arkansas, or anyone other than South Carolina next week...even if Tennessee is in control of its own destiny, all is not well in Knoxville.

The balance of these two things must be remembered - and that is why I will again say how fruitless and damaging it is to judge the future of a head coach in the present moment of a season, and that everyone should just shut their mouths until 2007 is over - but the Vols have to get better, and at this point, seven games in, you have to seriously consider if they will on defense. Can Tennessee play well enough to win these still-meaningful games down the stretch?

Our defensive line is a non-factor. We haven't been gashed by a major running back, which makes one question them less and put the blame on our young secondary. But the reality is, when Alabama is playing at the last minute without two OL starters, and you can't get a legitimate sack or any real pressure at all, all game, and all year...the defensive line is the biggest problem. Can we really expect them to get better from this point?

The linebackers can hit, but they don't wrap up and finish tackles as much as they should. And as stated, the secondary is brutally young. Seeing the other team's punter is the exception and no longer the expectation. You're asking an offense that has its moments, no doubt, to be perfect. And then you're digging holes that allow a running back like Arian Foster, who's having a sensational day, to finish with only 13 carries because we have to throw. How did they play so well against Georgia? I don't know. How did it get so bad so fast on defense? I don't know.

So as we watch Florida take a 14-7 lead, the fragile balance between having something to play for and hoping the Gators lose rears its head again after a welcome two week absence. There will be questions, and they are warranted. And Phillip Fulmer will be accountable - even he would tell you that - though he is accountable for the entire season, so his fate need not be decided until it's over. And I hope Mike Hamilton would tell you that.

Winning, of course would make everything better. And a championship season is still on the table today, even if Florida wins in Lexington. But what's also on the table - and right now appears more realistic - are more losses and more of this. So in keeping with the week to week thing, Tennessee has to wise up, and better be better at rebounding than South Carolina, who had an equally deflating loss today. Both of those teams will be looking at themselves in the mirror and thinking "we're not as good as we thought we were." And one of them will be thinking that next Saturday night as well. The Vols have to do whatever it takes to make sure that's not them again next week. There is still good here that can be saved. But there is much work to be done, and if there is any way to get better on defense, the Vols better find it, and the offense needs to continue to execute against what will be the best defense they've seen all year next week. This sucks today, no other way to put it, and it's embarassing for all involved with the Vol program. I still believe Tennessee can be good enough to get it fixed. But the hour is extremely nigh, and it's becoming, quite literally, now or never. And we're going to find out which one it's going to be very, very soon.

Go Vols.

BEAT BAMA

Counting down the hours til the early morning kickoff (11:30 AM local time if you're live from Tuscaloosa, 12:30 on the East Coast) of the most important game of this and every year...

First, in a belated answer to Amy's question about my favorite Tennessee/Alabama game, the 1996 game still stands at the top of my personal list. There have been others that were more defining, like 41-14 in 1995 to finally break the streak. And there have been some that were more dramatic, like the five overtimes in 2003 we were all there for. But everything about the 96 game - the first time I'd ever seen us beat Alabama in person, the first win in Knoxville in 12 years, and especially the way that Alabama built a 13-0 lead into the third quarter, and then the Vols finally did to them what they'd been doing to us for as long as I'd known the rivalry: make every play, get all the breaks, and somehow find a way. The tape of that game is absolutely brutal to watch until Peyton hits Joey Kent for a score late in the third to make it 13-6, and from that point on it's brilliant. The two interceptions late, Jay Graham getting a TD from the official when he was really down at about the 3 yard line, Jay Graham turning "we're playing for overtime" into a 79 yard touchdown run, and then Alabama inexplicably moving the football when they hadn't all day to get in the red zone with under a minute to play, only to be stopped on 4th down to seal it. It was the first time that beating Alabama seemed real, and when we'd pulled it off - and how we'd pulled it off - broke the curse that I'd known my entire life, and became one of its own for Alabama that would last five more years after that. 20-13 in 1996 - the last nationally relevant Tennessee/Alabama game in Knoxville - is my favorite of them all...so far...but it'll be hard to beat.

What's interesting too, when you look back on the streak from 1995-2001, is that after that 96 game, the attitude changed dramatically. I bought a shirt the very next year, after winning 38-23 in Birmingham, that said "WE OWN ALABAMA", which was a preposterous statement to make in Knoxville, but somehow appropriate since Fernando Bryant had said the same thing about the Vols just three years before. After the 1996 game, the Vols and their fans expected to win. And none of the games were really that close or dramatic from that point on in the streak. Even in 1999 - the last nationally relevant Tennessee/Alabama game period - with "Shaun Alexander for Heisman" everywhere in Tuscaloosa, the site of the game for the first time ever instead of Birmingham, and both teams with only one loss and ranked in the Top 10...Tennessee did what Tennessee did to Alabama at that point in time, and really dominated the game in a 21-7 win that could've been closer if the aforementioned Alexander showed signs of what he'd later do on my fantasy team this year by dropping a sure touchdown, but really at the end wasn't even that narrow. Look at the margin of victory for Tennessee during the streak:

1995: Tennessee 41 - Alabama 14
1996: Tennessee 20 - Alabama 13
1997: Tennessee 38 - Alabama 23
1998: Tennessee 35 - Alabama 18
1999: Tennessee 21 - Alabama 7
2000: Tennessee 20 - Alabama 10
2001: Tennessee 35 - Alabama 24

There's no blowouts after the first one, but there's no sweating after the second one. One of my favorite quarters in Tennessee football history is the 4th quarter of the 2001 game, the last in the streak, when Alabama went in with a 24-21 lead. Tennessee dominated those 15 minutes and that 4th quarter against a solid opponent better than at any point I could ever remember until the Georgia game last year. Alabama went in up 24-21, the Vols scored on a lengthy touchdown drive, Alabama went three and out, the Vols scored on a lengthy touchdown drive, Alabama went three and out. Brutal, efficient, painful if you're wearing crimson. They thought they had us, and then Tennessee did what Tennessee did. And it was over in a heartbeat.

Now, let's look at more recent history. Since Alabama broke our streak in 2002 with a 34-14 win in Knoxville, check out the last four meetings:

2003: Tennessee 51 - Alabama 43 (5 OT)
2004: Tennessee 17 - Alabama 13
2005: Alabama 6 - Tennessee 3
2006: Tennessee 16 - Alabama 13

The games are closer, and the offenses are non-existent (the 03 game was 17-17 going to overtime). In their last five meetings with the Tide, Tennessee has won three of them by averaging 13.4 points per game in regulation. So the times have to be changing, because 13.4 points on Saturday gets us beat. Badly.

This year's contest opened in Vegas as pick'em, and that's about right. Tennessee probably has more talent, no doubt, while Alabama has a terrible habit of playing exactly to the level of their competion in every game this season outside of Western Carolina. So while it's fun to think about blowouts - especially when you have to figure that Nick Saban teams are going to get better, not worse, and this may be our best chance to beat Alabama for the forseeable future - you'd be crazy to look at the history and the circumstances and not forsee a close game.

It's interesting - with no undefeated teams in SEC play, the slate is basically wiped clean for most one loss teams. That means that even if Alabama loses on Saturday, they will still control their own destiny to Atlanta. And it means that even if Tennessee loses, they can be right back in control of their fate if Florida falls in Lexington three hours later. Which, by the way, you'd all be picking Kentucky in that game if they weren't "Kentucky" and playing against "Florida". If you took the names out of the equation, the Cats should clearly be the favorites and not the eight point underdogs.

But while Nick Saban will be forgiven if he loses to Tennessee his first time around, we'll get back on the merry-go-round with Fulmer should the Vols lose here, swinging back over towards "fire him!" instead of the happier place we're in this week. They're all important anyway, but especially this one, and especially this year, the Vols need it.

You can break it down all you want, but at the end of the day, like I said, you're crazy if you don't think this one's going down to the wire. Which is fine, because that's what this rivalry is supposed to do. It just needs to be the Vols who come out on top. I will say that it greatly, greatly benefits the road team to have an early kickoff like this, and I'll also say that if the Vols win Erik Ainge will be 3-0 as a starter against Alabama in his career (Rick Clausen started in 2005). Both teams have weapons, both teams have holes, and all those game maxims about not making mistakes and play for and making breaks and scoring off them will be very true on Saturday. So forget the angles, forget the predictions, forget the rest of the season, forget everything else with this one - can the Vols, for the 11th time in 13 years, be the ones to make it happen on Saturday? Because by God, this one is still at the top of the list.

Will's Pick: Tennessee 28 - Alabama 27

Bama Week - YouTube

Getting rolling here on the most nostalgic week of the year, thanks to our friends at YouTube:

From Decade of Dominance...

1995


1996


1998


For our friends in Tuscaloosa, the highlights from their last two wins:

2002 via ESPN


2005 via Eli Gold


And finally, last year's highlights...

2006 via CBS


Saturday's game will be shown regionally and on ESPN GamePlan via Lincoln Financial Sports. It's the first time since 1988 - when the Vols were 0-5 coming in - that the Third Saturday in October game isn't on national television. It's also the first time I can ever remember thinking "big game" and associating it with JP/LF Sports. So it'll be new. But it'll still be the Third Saturday.

The SESB Midseason/Pre-BCS Top 25

My friends and I have been running a college football picks contest every year this decade, and I'm the one who's chosen the list of games each week for the last eight years. And it used to be easy - you stray towards the big games each week, and you don't bother with things like Stanford at Southern Cal or Oregon State at California, because everyone's going to pick the #1 or #2 team in the nation anyway, as they should. You only deal with the interesting, the debate worthy, the ones where the outcome is in question.

This year, they're all in question.

Not just in the SEC, where this has been the case since Steve Spurrier left Florida. Every team, every game, every week, everything counts. There are no more circled W's. Looking ahead is pure disaster and foolishness. Trying to make sense of it all is pure insanity. But at least it's never boring...and I would argue that it's never been more interesting.

At the halfway point of the 2007 college football season, everyone ranked in the preseason AP Top 10 has at least one loss, and only six undefeated teams remain (including zero in the SEC, where each of the 12 teams has at least one conference loss). Of these unbeaten teams left standing, only one is a recent traditional powerhouse, and it was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Columbus. And in fact, maybe it still is, and Ohio State just hasn't played anyone of merit yet. Meanwhile, the folks running the BCS are scared to death of a South Florida vs. Boston College national championship game, which is, at this point, as good of an option as anything else out there.

With the first BCS standings slated to be released later today, here's an honest attempt at ranking the Top 25. Ohio State is ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches polls this morning, but that's because they're Ohio State and they were ranked #3 in a week where the top two teams lost. So we're trying taking a fresh look at the entire thing, and see where it shakes out on October 14:

SESB MIDSEASON TOP 25
1. South Florida
Logic offers no other choice. South Florida's quality wins - at Auburn, vs West Virginia - are better than any of the other undefeated teams by far. And they're still undefeated - you'll note that LSU got a first place vote in this week's AP poll, which I'm sure is one of those "LSU is still the best team in the nation" voters - but as long as there are undefeated teams from the major conferences, and especially ones who have won at Jordan-Hare and beat West Virginia, LSU and the voters have lost the ability to make that argument. This team is legitimately good - ask Central Florida - and is the only logical choice for #1 right now.

2. Ohio State
It's a much more difficult argument to figure out who's number two between the Buckeyes and Boston College. Ohio State has looked better against a weaker schedule. The wins at Washington and at Purdue can't be fully understood until we figure out how good both of those teams really are, and really the same can be said for BC's wins over Wake Forest an Georgia Tech. If you lined them up against each other, you'd like Ohio State, and since both OSU and BC are still unbeaten, you can use that argument to help decide. So the Buckeyes get the narrow selection for #2.

3. Boston College
Not as untested as Kansas, Arizona State and Hawaii, but not as impressive as USF or Ohio State, so the Eagles find themselves here at #3. Matt Ryan is a good leader and this team is good on both sides of the ball, and as long as they keep winning, they'll stay in the top 3.

4. LSU
Not only are the Tigers probably still the best team in college football - which few will argue - they lost in triple overtime on the road in the SEC. They have bigger and better quality wins than everyone else, and the SEC schedule will allow them to stay in the National Championship hunt if they don't lose again. Among the one loss teams, LSU not only has the most talent, they have the biggest wins and the most forgiveable loss. "How can you rank one loss LSU ahead of one loss Kentucky?" Good question, since it's the primary argument I'll use elsewhere in the poll. The answer: South Carolina.

5. California
Now here, first of all, anyone ranking Oregon ahead of California is an idiot (Ducks three spots ahead in both polls this afternoon) and should have their voting rights removed. There's not a "three way tie" scenario like LSU/Kentucky/South Carolina that can be used to further the argument. Cal beat Oregon at Autzen, Cal hung 45 on the Vols, and Cal lost by three points because, one will argue, Nate Longshore was hurt. And since Longshore's sprained ankle won't keep him off the field all year, a fully healthy Cal team is every bit the second best team in the nation right now as they were last week.

6. Oklahoma
It's a tough call here between Oklahoma and Oregon. OU has wins over Texas and a blowout over Miami, with the big upset loss to Colorado; Oregon has the heartbreaker against Cal combined with the 39-7 thumping of Michigan that keeps looking better, and you can't penalize Oregon just because Michigan quit in that game after the first series. And even if you lined them up and played - and wouldn't that be fun after last year - you'd have a coin flip. Oregon's loss is significantly better, but Oklahoma's wins are slightly more impressive. So I'm going with the Sooners at #6, with a better defense and a relatively even offense.

7. Oregon
The Ducks really control their own fate in the polls, since they're ranked higher than Cal in both of them. In terms of talent, there seems to be a significant gap between these seven teams and the teams to follow; I'd bet on any of these seven to win against any of the teams ranked 8-25 here.

8. West Virginia
South Florida proved you can stop these guys, but when your only loss is to the team ranked #1 in this poll and you haven't really been challenged since, you're in good shape. The loss to USF means the Mountaineers may have to hope for a BCS at-large bid, and the health of Pat White may continue to be in question, along with their defense when they play Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati later this year. But right now, this is a top ten team.

9. Arizona State
The second tier of undefeated teams begin here, with the one who's been tested the most of the three. Arizona State did what they had to do last night - put up a good and convincing score in a game most of the nation was asleep for, a 44-20 second half heavy win over Washington. And you don't have to fret long about this ranking: the Sun Devils are off this week, then play Cal, at Oregon, at UCLA and at Southern Cal in succession. So just be patient, and the answers will present themselves.

10. South Carolina
You can tell the SEC has some pull nationally: LSU, South Carolina and Kentucky are all in the Top 8 in the AP poll. The Gamecocks played LSU relatively close and took advantage of every Kentucky mistake in beating them, so even if it's questionable that they've got Top 10 talent, they've got Spurrier and SEC name recognition, so for now they're here in the national eyes. They beat Kentucky, and they've played better over the whole than anyone else you could put here. And like Arizona State, late October and all of November will tell you all you need to know about them: at Tennessee, at Arkansas, Florida and Clemson to close.

11. Kentucky
You can say it's unfair to rank a team that's beaten Louisville, Arkansas and LSU this low. And maybe you have a point. And here again I'd advise patience: the game with Florida this week can move them into the Top 10 to stay, and if I actually had a vote I wouldn't drop them much further than this for losing it. The UK defense did a nice job of answering questions, and Andre Woodson did a nice job of getting back in the Heisman conversation. If this is truly a championship team, they've gotta beat Florida. And again, even if they lose, they're still a Top 15 team easily.

12. Kansas
Once again giving more weight to an undefeated team and ranking them ahead of teams I think would beat them if they lined up and played, but that's the nature of being undefeated. I've seen exactly zero seconds of Kansas football this year, but the schedule tells the story: a quality win over Kansas State, and sound beatings of all the other lesser foes they've faced. They don't play Texas or Oklahoma, and while the competition will get stiffer as they move more into North Division competition, until they lose, you can't rank them much lower than this. We'll see.

13. Missouri
Yes, they did give up 41 to Oklahoma. But they've also beat Illinois and embarassed Nebraska, and there's no question they've been more impressive than other one loss teams you could put here. The Tigers should be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 12 North - and they'll have to go through Kansas to get there - but there's no reason to rank them much lower than this just because they're Missouri and not a household name - on the field, they've been very solid this year.

14. Virginia Tech
Defense and heart continue to carry the Hokies, who are both familiar and content with playing BeamerBall. The big loss to LSU will always loom, and anyone who watches them will question their ability to play offense - Sean Glennon gets points for making a solid comeback this week, and loses points because it was against Duke - but VT will decide their own fate: in two Thursdays, they'll host Boston College.

15. Southern Cal
The last of the upper-tier one loss teams. And it's a shaky hold here on the Top 15, with the loss to Stanford and the poor performance again last week against Arizona. Some voters are clearly still in love with Pete Carroll - the coaches have USC ranked 9th, which is clearly a sign of some man-crushing. The scary part is, the Trojans haven't even remotely played the most difficult part of their schedule, so they'll either be exposed, or they'll get a chance to vault right back into the title hunt.

16. Auburn
You can debate this, but I say Auburn must be ranked ahead of Florida. The Tigers haven't done themselves any favors by losing to Mississippi State, but their other loss is to #1 (in this poll) USF, and even though they weren't really sexy about it, they did beat Arkansas at Arkansas last night. And again, patience, and you won't have to wait long - these Tigers are at the other Tigers in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

17. Florida
If you rank another two loss team ahead of Florida that's not Auburn, once again, you're really not thinking this through. Florida still has St. Tebow and they're still the defending National Champions, with plenty of meaningful games left to be played. The Gators have Top 10 talent, which will probably be where they end up before the season is over. Surely they can't lose three straight, against Kentucky this week...

18. Hawaii
I would've ranked Hawaii higher, then I watched them play on Friday night. Colt Brennan's 5 TDs aren't anything noteworthy when they're paired with 4 INTs. And they weren't playing someone great, it was San Jose State. They still won and they're still undefeated, but that sort of performance on national television with no other games to watch isn't what's going to help you slide into the BCS.

19. Texas Tech
A dropped ball away from being undefeated, the Red Raiders are rolling once more, and Graham Harrell is the latest TTU QB to be mentioned in the mid-October Heisman conversation. They busted up Texas A&M using both sides of the ball, and it'll be the contests with Texas and Oklahoma down the line that'll fully determine where they finish.

20. Virginia
Very very quietly since losing the opener at Wyoming, the Cavs are undefeated, bowl eligible, and rolling. Other than the win over Pittsburgh, none of them have been impressive, but they've all been Ws. They don't play Boston College and they don't play VT until the season finale, so it'll be a winable game every week between now and then. We'll see how long Al Groh can make this last.

21. Kansas State
If you're ranking Texas ahead of Kansas State, please tell me why. The Wildcats took Auburn to the wire, and its only loss is to undefeated Kansas. Meanwhile, K-State just beat Colorado and, remember, BLASTED Texas in Austin. This team is under the radar but very good, and could still easily win the Big 12 North.

22. Tennessee
I've actually got the Vols two spots lower than the AP poll, but if you could please tell me why Texas is ranked ahead of us (or at all), I'd appreciate it. The losses were big, but so was the win over Georgia - who did the Vols a huge favor by squeaking past Vanderbilt so I can make that very point - and Tennessee simply has to keep winning. Right now they're right about where they should be in the polls, and they're still in control of their own destiny in the SEC. So while being in the 20s in the polls is never good in Knoxville, being in control of their fate always is.

23. Cincinnati
Losing to Louisville ain't what it used to be, but the Bearcats are still very solid, have beaten Rutgers and blown out Oregon State, and still control their own Big East fate. This is not a team just to be written off with one close loss to a team everyone thought was a national title contender; Ben Mauk is really solid, and I think they'll be in the poll for the duration.

24. Michigan
Hey, it's Michigan! And yep, they've finally earned it - blasting Purdue and putting the ghosts of September behind them have the Wolverines firmly in control of their own Big 10 fate. If Mike Hart is legitimately hurt, then they're in huge trouble...but if not, you may see the Wolverines continue to roll towards the top.

25. Illinois
"What about Penn State?" Illinois beat them, end of conversation. So even though Penn State looked really good while Illinois looked really bad on Saturday, the Illini close loss to Missouri looks better every week, and the Fighting Zookers get to hang on in the poll. But they've got to play better than they did on Saturday at Iowa, though I'm pretty sure it'll be hard to play much worse.

Tennessee fans, among others, have learned that what you think in August will be different than what you think in September will be different than what you think in October. And so it goes from here. So everyone should both calm down and wait for the whole thing to play out, and stop worrying about the whole thing so much, and deal with the present week. And for Tennessee, there's no better week to do that than this one. Stop worrying about Spurrier or Kentucky or if we're good enough or whether it'll still be LSU we face in the SEC Championship. Stop trying to figure out what the final outcome will be and if it'll continue to be enough to save Fulmer. Start focusing on this week - not only because of what it'll mean towards Atlanta, but for what it means right now. Every win is, as Bruce Pearl likes to say, precious. Beating Mississippi State by 12 suddenly feels satisfying. And it's not just to focus week to week so we can survive and then move on to fretting about the next one. When the wins are so precious, they need to all be not just endured, but enjoyed. And like I said, no better time to start enjoying one than the Third Saturday in October.

College Football Picks - October 13

Happy Birthday to me...

Last week: 12-10 (ugh)
This season: 85-39

We're off to a good start this week, picking up Wake Forest on Thursday night. In the early games today, you've got some compelling television with survival games in the ACC and Big 10, and another chance for everyone to see if Illinois is for real. Vol fans will want to check out the Lincoln Financial games to get another glimpse of Alabama before next week.

Early game predictions:
- Miami over Georgia Tech
- Illinois keeps rolling on the road at a punchless Iowa team
- South Florida over Central Florida
- Michigan over Purdue (should be fun to watch)
- Alabama wins at Ole Miss
- Nebraska holds serve against Oklahoma State, Texas wins at Iowa State

The Vols kick at 2:30, and since I'm not sure if the correct representation of the 2007 Vols was found at Cal and Florida, or last week at Neyland Stadium. So today, expect something of both. Mississippi State, believe it or not, is 4-2 and has pulled big upsets before. Their defense is better than you think, and they'll want to give the Vols a healthy dose of Anthony Dixon (thus the "nine in the box" comments from Sly Croom early in the week). Survive and advance continues to be the theme...I'll take the Vols in a light sweat in the 4th quarter, 27-20.

3:30 game predictions
- LSU wins at Kentucky. Don't get your hopes up, Lexington
- Boston College rolls Notre Dame in South Bend
- South Carolina wins a dangerous new rivalry game at North Carolina
- Penn State holds serve against Wisconsin (playing without Austin Scott)
- Oregon and Southern Cal both win at home (over Wash. State and Arizona)
- Texas Tech over Texas A&M
- Virginia knocks off undefeated UConn

And later on tonight...
- Georgia wins at Vanderbilt, because they're Vanderbilt
- Cal holds serve at home over Oregon State by continuing to not look ahead
- Cincy stays undefeated by continuing to ruin Louisville's season
- Arkansas saves their season by squeaking by Auburn at home
- Oklahoma shows why Missouri should've saved their best game for this week
- Kansas State knocks off Colorado
- The UDub/Ty Willingham special on the road over undefeated Arizona State
- And finally, the in-state special: MTSU "upsets" Memphis at the Liberty Bowl

College Football Picks - Thursday October 11

Thursday, October 11
Wake Forest vs. #21 Florida State - 7:30 PM - ESPN
How good is Wake Forest? The Demon Deacons were on point in both of their losses, 38-28 to Boston College and then to overtime against Nebraska. Then they may have saved their season by coming from behind to beat a good Maryland team in overtime. But frustrations remain - the Duke game last week was way too close (41-36) and the defense that carried them at times in 06 has been missing in action in critical spurts. Riley Skinner is back, and led them against Maryland and Duke with efficiency, but he may need something more spectacular than the 440 yards combined he passed for in those two games against the Florida State defense.

Xavier Lee has become the next big thing, for now, in Tallahassee - against Alabama he found a way to make the big plays and threw for 224 yards in the second half, then came back to go for 257 against NC State last week. FSU has won four in a row, and is a terrible first half against Clemson away from being undefeated. With the Tigers having gone down twice, the Noles can control their own path to Jacksonville.

Will the Noles be after revenge? Because they should be - the 30-0 beatdown Wake gave FSU last year in Tallahassee was the lowest point in the Bobby Bowden era, and was the moment everyone knew both that Wake was for real, and Florida State officially wasn't what it used to be. The Noles are a long way away from getting that aura back, and Wake has two losses and a third will make them nationally irrelevant for the rest of the year. So both teams really need this one.

We've discussed earlier Wake's lack of real home field advantage, so you can throw that out. If Florida State is going to make a run for the ACC title this year, they need to prove it by winning this one. The Noles defense is tough and Wake will struggle to score, but there's something about this one that makes me lean towards the Demon Deacons. Even if FSU is firing on all cylinders, they're not so much better than Wake that they can walk in and return the 30-0 favor. Florida State hasn't proven it over the last few years that they can win games like this on a regular basis, so I'm betting that Wake - riding high in confidence after the Maryland win two weeks ago - still has enough to put the Noles away.
Wake Forest 23 - Florida State 20

Bruce Pearl in Sports Illustrated

Hitting mailboxes tomorrow is a feature article on Bruce Pearl - his head's even in the upper right hand corner of the cover - but you can read the entire article right now for free at SI.com.

Bruce Pearl's got his shirt off

Tennessee Basketball: 30 Days and Counting

While we haven't crossed that threshold of "the football season's a wash, let's focus on basketball!" thanks to the Vols' big win over Georgia, Year Three of the Bruce Pearl Administration is now just 30 days away. And if the football team puts together a winning streak, you could have a fun little weekend in Knoxville on November 9-10, with the Vols' season opener against Temple on Friday night, and Tennessee vs. Arkansas on Saturday.

And while ridiculous optimism always lives on this blog, with the basketball team it's not just me: Lindy's preseason college basketball magazine has the Vols picked 3rd. In the nation. So much for trying to temper expectations.

In fact, now we're going to start playing the underrated card - also today, a feature on SI.com has the Vols' backcourt ranked 7th in the nation. And I'm saying, "7th? Only 7th? Chris Lofton and the Smith Boys, 7th?" See, it's starting already...

WWE: Shawn Michaels is back

Things change quickly in the sports entertainment world, and so a day after advertising leaked a Triple H vs. Randy Orton main event with three possible stipulations at Cyber Sunday on October 28, HHH was pushed towards a feud with Umaga, leaving Orton without a challenger for the PPV. At the top of the 11:00 hour on Raw, with everyone at ringside to congratulate the new champ, Vince McMahon ordered Triple H to come out and shake Orton's hand. When he didn't, Orton started to make his way to the back, when the familiar music hit and Shawn Michaels - last seen in April - made his return. Old school fans, mark out.

HBK decked Orton with Sweet Chin Music, and now the Cyber Sunday main event has changed, where you the fan can vote to see if Orton will face Jeff Hardy, Mr. Kennedy, or Shawn Michaels for the title in three weeks. And yet again, glad to see they're taking all the drama out of it, because if HBK doesn't win that vote I'd be stunned. Meanwhile, the Chris Jericho rumors continue to swirl, with Jericho giving a neither confirm nor deny statement to a London newspaper while promoting his book. It's amazing how, even when things are going so poorly for the WWE, you bring back a couple of old faces, and everything looks good again.

You should be reading...

Clay Travis, the author of Dixieland Delight, which has been recommended to me by several of my friends and is available in bookstores everywhere - except in Ceres, VA, where we don't have any - and online, available for delivery worldwide - except in Ceres, VA, where sometimes I get my mail, sometimes my neighbor does, and sometimes neither of us know for sure.

Anyway, Travis is a UT fan, and CBS Sportsline has a piece he wrote during the Georgia/UT weekend that's a very good read. As soon as I find civilization and his book, I'm sure it'll go on the mantle next to Dane Bradshaw's.

Random Thoughts - Monday October 8

Did you know that the backup QB who played for Stanford called his own play on the 4th and 20 conversion on the final Cardinal drive, because he couldn't hear Jim Harbaugh's call? God bless ESPN's College Football Live.

By the way, all this whining by the Michigan people about how come the Wolverines dropped out of the Top 25 when they lost at home to Appy State, and USC loses at home to Stanford and doesn't drop out of the Top 10? Stanford is FBS. Appy State is FCS. And in the subconscious mind of the voter, that combined with SC's recent run of dominance that Michigan hasn't enjoyed, makes all the difference. Silence, village idiots.

Looking at the SEC East race
With the season not even half over yet, there's obviously a long way to go between here and Atlanta. While everyone is asking themselves if they can beat LSU in the West Division, over in the East, at least four teams have a legitimate shot at winning this thing, and I'd argue that Georgia isn't quite dead yet either, though you may not hear much of that sentiment in Athens this week. So with seven weeks of regular season football left to play, and the Vols and South Carolina in control of their own destiny, here's a breakdown of where everyone stands in the SEC East, in a rough order of standing:

TENNESSEE (1-1)
Wins: Georgia
Losses: Florida
Remaining Schedule: at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs South Carolina, vs Arkansas, vs Vanderbilt, at Kentucky

The good news is that the Vols beat Georgia and control their own destiny. The bad news is the Florida loss will keep them on the losing end of any tiebreaker with the Gators, and the Vols still have six SEC games left to play. If Florida wins out, Tennessee must do the same to make it to Atlanta. If everyone else in the division continues to lose, one mantra will be true for everyone: it's much better to lose to a team from the Western Division than to a rival from the East. This means that the two most important games left on Tennessee's schedule are, in order, South Carolina and Kentucky. But really, they're all important when one loss puts your destiny back in Urban Meyer's hands. The Vols might be underdogs in Tuscaloosa next week, but should be favored in all the other contests, and shouldn't play anyone even remotely as good as California and Florida. It is worth noting that the Vols are yet to face a really great defense, which is what they'll see from South Carolina (and don't overlook Mississippi State's). So there will be no excuses, and while it will be a test every week, Tennessee is good enough to win out.

SOUTH CAROLINA (3-1)
Wins: Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Losses: LSU
Remaining Schedule: vs Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, vs Florida

Carolina has already scored two huge victories by knocking off East Division foes Georgia and Kentucky, and Spurrier will get a chance to do it himself against Tennessee and Florida. Their pressure situation is the opposite of Tennessee's: while the Vols have their most difficult games behind them and carry a feeling of trying to survive, South Carolina - despite having already played three huge games - still has the trip to Knoxville and the date with the Gators in front of them. And even if Carolina manages to win in Knoxville, that would then put Florida's destiny back in their own hands, and probably then turn the Carolina vs. Florida game into the SEC East Championship. So while everyone has pressure, Carolina will have a different sort of pressure, as their schedule gets progressively more difficult as the season goes on. Gamecock fans have seen their teams hit a late October/early November slide every year since Lou Holtz came to town, and they'll have to get over that hurdle if they want to get to Atlanta. Spurrier has been working to get this program here, and even though they've done so with an assist from Auburn and LSU in beating Florida, they're a Top 10 team in control of their own fate. And just two years ago, they won in Knoxville, then beat Florida in Columbia. Can they do it again, and then take the next step? Can they get to Atlanta for the first time in the history of the program?

KENTUCKY (1-1)
Wins: Arkansas
Losses: South Carolina
Remaining Schedule: vs LSU, vs Florida, vs Mississippi State, at Vanderbilt, at Georgia, vs Tennessee

Kentucky does not control its own destiny thanks to the loss to South Carolina, and so they'll need the Cocks to lose once in order to step back in front. But that will only be as long as they themselves keep winning, and no one has a more difficult October than the Cats, who'll have to rebound from the Thursday night loss to Carolina just in time to face LSU, then Florida. So one week after making it to the Top 10 for the first time in anyone's memory, the Cats will need back to back massive home upsets just to stay in the poll at all. Is Kentucky just an early feel good story (and how good, really, are Louisville and Arkansas?) or are they legitimate? As stated, Eastern Division wins are more important - if the Cats can forge a split over the next two weeks, the Florida game is much more important in terms of keeping their own fate in their hands. Then they'll have to beat Georgia and Tennessee in November...but at least Kentucky plays all of their biggest games in Lexington. UK is explosive enough on offense to beat anyone, but their defense isn't strong enough to overcome mistakes, which is what cost them on Thursday. Kentucky is either going to be a big story or a non-factor based on what happens over the next two weeks. We'll see.

FLORIDA (2-2)
Wins: Tennessee, Ole Miss
Losses: Auburn, LSU
Remaining Schedule: at Kentucky, vs Georgia (Jacksonville), vs Vanderbilt, at South Carolina


While the 59-20 win over Tennessee may still be fresh in the minds of Vol fans, Gator fans are thinking about the three weeks since: the escape over Ole Miss, the home loss to Auburn, and the loss to LSU. The blowout over the Vols has, at least so far, been proven as the exception and not the rule, and the Gators have gone back to their 2006 ways, playing everything to the final second, and while their defense has played over everyone's expectations, it hasn't been quite good enough to overcome the offense playing just below everyone's expectations (after the Tennessee game, of course). Florida needs only one Tennessee loss to get back in front and in control, and if you're a Gator fan, you look at the Vols' games with Alabama, Carolina, Arkansas and Kentucky and like your odds from a Gainesville perspective. But Florida also must play better in their own right, because the trips to Lexington and Columbia will not be easy. Can Florida rebound and improve, or will they drop another along the way?


GEORGIA (2-2)
Wins: Alabama, Ole Miss
Losses: South Carolina, Tennessee
Remaning Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs Florida (Jacksonville), vs Auburn, vs Kentucky


Bad news for Georgia: you've lost to both South Carolina and Tennessee, you're two in the hole in the East and you haven't played Florida yet, and you've lost six straight against the East going back thru last year. Georgia still has a shot, but not only will they have to win out with a difficult schedule and the Cocktail Party, which is the closest thing to a guaranteed loss in the SEC you can find, they need Carolina AND Tennessee to lose two games apiece. It's not impossible, but it's very improbable. And fans in Athens aren't worried about Atlanta, they're worried about righting the ship. You usually don't read about someone looking for revenge against Vanderbilt, but that's exactly what Georgia's doing this week. The Dawgs need to take them one at a time, get past Vanderbilt, and then focus on trying to knock off Florida - if you do that, even if you don't get the needed losses from Carolina and/or Tennessee, you've got a shot at having a good year and getting things back on the up and up. But right now, the most disgruntled fan base in the SEC resides in Athens.


VANDERBILT (1-2)
Wins: Ole Miss
Losses: Alabama, Auburn
Remaining Schedule: vs Georgia, at South Carolina, at Florida, vs Kentucky, at Tennessee


Believe it or not...Vanderbilt also still controls its own destiny, having played only Western Division teams at this point. So, you know, they need to win. And that's about all the space we're going to use entertaining the thought of the Dores in Atlanta. I will say that the Dores have three wins already and will probably get four against Miami (OH), so they'll either need to beat Wake Forest and win one, or they'll need to find two victories against the above SEC East schedule to make it to a bowl game. It's possible, and it's very possible that they catch Georgia with their pants down again, but then again, they're still Vanderbilt.


This thing will change from week to week, and as the aforementioned Stanford and Appy State have shown, every game counts and anyone can beat anyone, especially in the SEC. So it's critical, not just for the Vols but for everyone, to focus on the week and the task at hand, and simply win and move on; survive and advance. If form holds, the October 27 game between Tennessee and South Carolina could end up deciding the East race, but as stated, you can't look ahead even that far. The Vols got the help they needed, now it's up to them to get it done from here. It starts this week in Starkville - not looking ahead to the Third Saturday and Tuscaloosa, not thinking about any Spurrier Showdowns...focus on Mississippi State. One at a time. And the Good Lord willing, things will work out.



Feast or Famine in the NFL
Speaking of famine, let's start with my fantasy team, so I can use this blog to air my personal grievances. In the head-to-head league I run, I've come in 4th place (out of 10) each of the last three years - always just good enough to sneak into the playoffs, and then bad enough to go 0-6 in playoff games in that span. Playing with the same owners and ordering the draft based on the previous season's performance, finishing 4th means I've drafted 6th each of the last three years, which means I don't get a shot at Manning or LT or any supposedly definitive superstars. So my thought process has always been that drafting from there keeps feeding the cycle of being just good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to win it all.


But this year, I was happier with my team post-draft than I've ever been. Coming into Week 1, my starting lineup looked like this:


QB Marc Bulger
RB Shaun Alexander
RB Travis Henry
WR Donald Driver
WR Darrell Jackson
TE Kellen Winslow
K Nate Kaeding
DEF Baltimore


Bulger has been one of the five best fantasy QBs for the last four years. Alexander has been a touchdown machine when healthy. Henry was coming off a career reviving year in Tennessee and was now the feature back in the run-happy Denver offense. Donald Driver is Brett Favre's favorite target. Jackson - who was replaced after one week with Wes Welker - was supposed to be the primary threat the 49ers were waiting on. Kellen Winslow is a soldier. Nate Kaeding is the official kicker of LaDanian Tomlinson. And it's the Ravens defense man. I loved my team.


I won the first week. I lost the second week because I played Kaeding instead of New England's Stephen Ican'tspellyourlastnamebutitstartswithaG. Since then, everything has fallen apart.


Marc Bulger has a rib injury and wasn't getting anything done before that, thanks in part to a devastated offensive line with three starters out with injury. Travis Henry, when he's not getting high or fathering illegitimate children, leads the NFL in rushing yards...and has one touchdown in five games. Shaun Alexander has disappeared with the rest of Seattle's offense (which makes me feel great about trading Winslow for Matt Hasselbeck and Bo Scaife, who VY refuses to throw to). Donald Driver continues to be Favre's favorite target, until they get in the red zone. And the Ravens' defense waited until last week to play a good game. Result: I'm 1-4 and in last place, by far, in my own league. And it's not going to get any better.


Alright, now that that's done...


It's strange, because as college football is getting closer and closer in terms of teams being even and fewer and fewer dominant teams, the NFL - which is designed to work exactly that way - has never been further apart from top to bottom after five weeks.


New England has been more dominant thru five weeks than any team I can ever remember. Along with the Patriots, the Colts and Cowboys (who play Buffalo on MNF tonight) - and I would put the 4-1 Steelers in that group - the top of the league appears to be very, very good. New England and Dallas play each other next week, and the Pats and Colts will hook it up later this year. But the cream of the crop is very, very good.

Then there are a number of teams, and many of them surprising - Green Bay, Tennessee, Washington, Jacksonville - that have kept the pace in the standings thru five weeks, but don't appear to have the same explosiveness and firepower. The only thing that keeps Green Bay from winning as brutally ugly as the Titans, Redskins and Jaguars is Brett Favre. The Titans - who again disappear into the great television void, and I'm left with Mike Keith and StatTracker to base my opinions on - continue to find ways to win, and have a telling game at Tampa (3-2) this Sunday. None of these four teams are going to find their way to the top of anyone's Power Rankings, but they are also all well coached and all good enough to beat anyone they play. These are the teams you don't want to come across in the playoffs.

But at the bottom, it's been just as bad as it's been good at the top. Some of that is unfulfilled expectations: the Saints are 0-4, the Rams are 0-5 and starting the guy who replaced Heath Shuler at quarterback, the Eagles and Bengals are 1-3. And you've got teams like the Dolphins, who are 0-5 and make Nick Saban look smarter every week. The difference in divisions is jarring too: the AFC East is the Patriots and three nobodies - even the Jets are 1-4 - while the AFC South features the 5-0 Colts, the 3-1 Titans and Jaguars, and the 3-2 Texans in last place. The Bucs and Panthers are 3-2 and tied for first in the NFC South.

The NFL, more than any other sport, is overanalyzed, and those who were writing teams like the Chargers and the Bears off last week because they needed to something to say to fill the countless hours of television we devote to America's Game, may turn around and be talking about those teams in January. So even saying that the good teams are great and the bad teams are terrible has to be taken with a grain of salt. But this, so far, is shaping up to be a great year at the top and into the playoffs in the NFL. And the Titans, so far, picked a tough year to try and get in.


Finding a reason to care about the MLB Playoffs...
Braves not playing in October for the second year in a row? Cubs' dreams shattered before I even had a chance to write about them? Tired of the Red Sox and Yankees?

I give you, Vol fans, Todd Helton.

The Rockies alone are a good story, and have now won an absolutely absurd 17 of their last 18 games, which would be on the cover of Sports Illustrated if they didn't play in the NL West. The break the Philly hearts almost as fast as Arizona did to Chicago, only the Cubs are a little more used to it by now. And there's nothing about Arizona that makes you think they'll have a definitive advantage over the Rockies in the NLCS that no one will care about.

But Helton's been plugging away faithfully in Denver for 11 years, getting called up the year after the Rockies last made the playoffs and were wiped out by the Braves in the first round. And so with trade rumors swirling, the grizzly (literally) vet finally got surrounded by other hot bats and just enough pitching to carry them this far. So now - especially if you dislike the Red Sox/Yankees stuff, though NYY may be done as early as tonight - you've got a reason to care, and a reason to care about someone other than the East Coast teams that you pretend to favor in October. The Rockies and Helton are a good story, and I'm excited about seeing if they can continue to get it done in the NLCS.


WWE Championship changes hands 3 times in 1 night
Fans in Memphis who had tickets to the No Mercy PPV, and those who paid for it on PPV, had to be disappointed when John Cena went down with his torn pec. But WWE gave them their money's worth last night: Cena's title was awarded to Randy Orton at the open of the broadcast, who was scheduled to face Cena in a Last Man Standing Match later that night before Cena's injury. Triple H - who if you're a fan and you wanted to see anybody else face Orton for the gold, it's him - challenged Orton to a match, which HHH won to take the title away from Orton, and secure his 11th World Championship (look out, Ric Flair). HHH then had to defend in his regularly scheduled match with Umaga, which he won. Then, they announced that Orton's Last Man Standing match would go on as promised, against Triple H, forcing him to defend the title again. Orton won the title back with an RKO through the announce table with Triple H unable to answer the 10 count.

The more exciting news is that Cyber Sunday, the next PPV, is only three weeks away, which will make the wheels turn faster. Triple H will face Randy Orton again, and you can log on to WWE.com to vote for the match stipulation (Hell in a Cell, No DQ, or Falls Count Anywhere...that's an obvious way for the WWE to say they're ready for another Hell in a Cell match, because given the option no one's going to vote for the other two). You can also log on to vote for the special guest referee in the Fatal Fourway for the World Heavyweight Championship between Batista, Khali, Rey Mysterio and Finaly, with Mick Foley, JBL, and Steve Austin as options. Again, let's try not to make it so obvious next time.

Finally, a new video package appeared at No Mercy in the "saveus_222" stream - already you can tell they're doing a good job of generating excitement. This one featured "rev_22_12" ("Behold, I am coming soon..." in your biblical translation of choice) and the phrase "second coming" spliced in. That's gotta be Chris Jericho...though both Shawn Michaels and Edge have been confirmed to reappear before Survivor Series, with Jim Ross plugging HBK's return as just "weeks away" in his blog last week. Business is picking up.

A New Day

Three weeks after Florida did what it used to do to Tennessee, Tennessee did what it used to do to Georgia.

The 35-14 win over Georgia wasn't that close. The 28-0 halftime lead could've been worse. There was a certain point where the Vols had 14 first downs and Georgia had 2. The Vols ran at will. Erik Ainge passed efficiently. And Tennessee's defense, so maligned all week and all year, stopped the run, stopped the pass, and stopped Georgia. The run started with the return of Britton Colquitt kicking off into the end zone, and carried over to every player. After the game, you could tell that Phillip Fulmer was fired up and had had enough of a lot of conversations. And those conversations, I'm sure, aren't completely over - the first caller on the Vol Network's Football Finals made two inflamatory comments towards Fulmer and his weight before being cut off (and rightfully so) - but at least for one day, the Vols did it right. And did it well.

So Georgia takes the long sad drive back down I-75, where Mark Richt is now 0-6 in his last six against the SEC East. And don't think that fans in Knoxville are the only ones around this part of the world who are unhappy with their football coach. But the day was already good for the Vols when LSU and Florida kicked off after 8:00 PM.

And all the drama that was missing from the Vols and Dawgs found its way to Baton Rouge, where the day found a way to get even better. It took some doing - including an ulcer-inducing five-for-five night on 4th down for LSU - but as Tim Tebow's hail mary was incomplete and as the clock struck midnight...the Vols are now in first place in the SEC East.

(May I also add that the LSU-Florida game was even more stressful when forced to listen to it in its fullness on the LSU Sports Radio Network while driving home from Knoxville. But at least it was entertaining listening to the LSU announcers: verbal abuse of referees? Check. Automatic disagreement with every pass interference call? Check. Play by play announcer getting so excited that he repeatedly says things like "He's to the 20, he's to the 15, he's down to the 10, he's knocked out of bounds at the 13!"? Check. Play by play announcer carrying that "this is the biggest game in program history, don't screw up, don't screw up...." tone in his voice all night? Check. Color commentator referencing the Bluegrass Miracle as "the most improbable completion in the history of football"? Check. Same commentator calling the game "one of the greatest in the history of football" at its conclusion? Check. Good times. Bonus points for Kingfish Restaurant in New Orleans - thanks 870 AM - for their tagline: eat like a king, drink like a fish.)

So now, on Sunday October 7, Florida and Georgia both have two SEC losses, while Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky - with only the Vols and Cocks controlling their own destiny - sit atop the leaderboard in the division. And nobody's booking reservations for Atlanta just yet, because this is likely to turn into Survivor...but right now, the ball has found its way back into orange hands. And on the same day, the Vols showed they were, at their best, capable of taking it the distance. It's a long road from here, and goes to a dangerous place in Starkville next week. But on this morning, the Vols see it with Florida and Georgia in the rearview, and their own destiny in front of them. All. Things. New.

Go Vols.

WWE: If it can go wrong...

Having been through arguably the most difficult summer in WWE history, between Chris Benoit's murder/suicide, the string of injuries to top level performers, and steriod suspensions that have called congress to look into the WWE, just when you thought nothing worse could happen, Monday night it did.



John Cena was injured Monday night on RAW against Mr. Kennedy, on a harmless looking hip toss that turned into a torn pectoral muscle. The result: Cena is out for 6-8 months, will miss his main event Last Man Standing match with Randy Orton at Sunday's No Mercy PPV for the WWE title, and the injury will even keep him out of WrestleMania in the spring. Cena has been the WWE champ for more than a year...but his reign is now effectively over. WWE.com is promising that there will be a title match and a new champion on Sunday night's pay per view.



Lots of fans do not like Cena, and I'm one of them. But not only do you have to respect him, as a performer and as someone who, if he's being honest, has been so positive and forthcoming about the negatives of steroid use, and as someone who is always a positive voice for the WWE...he was the main event. And even if he wasn't Rock, Hogan or Austin...Cena was the moneymaker. Now he'll disappear until sometime before SummerSlam 2008, and a company that's already facing ratings issues will have no singular face to put in front.



The good news? Well, anytime you have a vacant title, I think it creates more interest...the problem is, WWE is going to solve that problem Sunday night on pay per view, so it won't drag out and it won't be seen by everyone. They could put someone less interesting up against Randy Orton and put the belt on him, or they could swerve it and pull something else out. Perhaps a superstar returning from injury that we haven't seen yet - a Bobby Lashley, or Edge - will take home the gold.



What's really interesting, and was so even before Cena's injury, is a video WWE's been running on RAW with "saveus_222" embedded in it. While there is much speculation over what this means, it's centered on two names: the return from injury of Shawn Michaels, which was supposed to take place next month anyway...or the resigning and return of Chris Jericho, which would be exactly what the WWE needs right now. Jericho's got a new book out that I'm sure he's looking to promote anyway, but no matter what kind of schedule he was on, the return of Y2J would be overwhelmingly positive. So despite the bad news, there are a few rays of hope...but they've got a narrow opportunity to take advantage of them. Cena's loss, love him or hate him, will be tangible, and yet again WWE is going to have to pick up the pieces and move forward.

College Football Picks - October 6

Thursday, October 4
#11 South Carolina vs. #8 Kentucky - 7:30 PM - ESPN
Take a picture...you haven't seen these two teams with those two rankings before, ever. Kentucky keeps playing these "biggest game in the history of the program" things every week they stay undefeated - and yes, Louisville was big, and Arkansas on the road was bigger, but beating Carolina in Columbia on a hostile Thursday night, with all eyes on you, would not only give the Cats more attention and momentum, it would keep them in first place in the SEC East. And you read that right - it's keep them, not put them; UK is already the only undefeated team left in the SEC East. Meanwhile, Carolina didn't fall too far in the polls with the 12 point loss in Baton Rouge, then catapaulted back towards the top ten with the rash of upsets on Saturday. So the winner here will exit the week as a top ten team, and will maintain control of their own destiny in a loaded SEC East race, with both teams trying to get to Atlanta for the very first time. This is g ood football.

And you'll also get the offense/defense piece here, even as Carolina plays the rest of the year without Jasper Brinkley. The Cocks gave up only 258 to Mississippi State last week and contained LSU relatively well. But UK will be the most explosive offense they faced so far, and nobody's stopped the Cats yet - the 40 points Kentucky hung on Louisville has been their lowest scoring output all year. So this is the test that will show both how good UK's offense and SC's defense are. Really, this is the most excited I've been about watching a Thursday night game that didn't involve the Vols.

South Carolina found some fun 'n gun last week - though don't we all prefer cock 'n fire - in Chris Smelley, who torched the Mississippi State defense for 279 yards. And Carolina has balance on offense when you combine him with Mike Davis and Cory Boyd. Kentucky's defense hasn't shown the ability to be more of a positive than a negative in a game like this, so Carolina will need to take full advantage.

Meanwhile, you'll hear all over the ESPN telecast that it's all eyes on Andre Woodson - this is his best chance so far to make his Heisman candidacy legit, because you won't be watching anything else on Thursday night, and they're playing The Ballcoach. Thus far, Woodson has thrown for 1309 yards with a 16 to 1 TD/INT ratio in his first five games. He's got the weapons around him to help carry the load. Kentucky has already been impressive on two occasions. Will they make it three?

See, I feel bad saying something along the lines of "until they beat..." because they've proven so much already over the last two years. This appears to be an even matchup. But I do know three things: Carolina's at home, a good defense beats a good offense, and these are not the sort of games that Steve Spurrier loses. Because I am especially faithful to the third one, I'm taking South Carolina to hold serve at home. An SC win allows Carolina to stay in control of their own SEC East destiny, and come December whoever comes out of this one with the head-to-head tiebreaker may be very relevant. I just can't pick against a Spurrier team in a game like this, not against Kentucky, not yet. Good football.
South Carolina 27 - Kentucky 24

Friday, October 5
Louisville vs. Utah - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Louisville might've found some defense last week, but granted they were playing NC State in a 29-10 win. Now considered an afterthought in the Big East - though they shouldn't be, considering I seriously doubt Syracuse makes a run, and thus U of L still controls its own destiny - they'll get another tough out of conference test. Credit the Cards for continually scheduling mid or upper level nonconference matchups. Utah has been one of the most deceptive teams in 2007 - they lost to Oregon State and look helpless against Air Force, then demolish UCLA, then get shutout at UNLV, and got back to their winning ways against Utah State last week. These two teams are incredibly difficult to predict, and you appear to get different teams every week. Louisville is better and they're playing at home, so I'm taking the Cards, but this is one where I really wouldn't be totally surprised no matter what the final outcome.
Louisville 35 - Utah 28

Saturday, October 6
Illinois vs. #5 Wisconsin - 12:00 PM - ESPN
When Juice Williams finds Arrelious Benn, good things happen - Benn had six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown to go with his kickoff return in the 27-20 win over Penn State that gives the Zooker some credibility at Illinois. When Juice Williams goes anywhere else, disaster ensues: take away his completions to Benn, and Williams was 5 of 19 for 36 yards and 2 INTs. However, if they can be productive enough against Penn State's defense, they should have no trouble being that and more against Wisconsin's. The Badgers are 5-0, but Washington State, Michigan State, and even The Citadel have had great success against their supposedly-stingy D. Luckily, their offense has been equal to the task, including a huge day from PJ Hill (34 carries, 155 yards, 2 TDs) in the 37-34 win over Michigan State last week. The Illini will have more weapons than anything Wisconsin has seen so far.

So, I want to pick Illinois here. In part because I think Wisconsin was overrated until last week, when everyone lost, and now they're a top five team simply by default. In part because I got burned picking against the Illini last week. And in part because they're exciting to watch, and you can almost see them running circles around the Wisconsin defense. But Juice Williams...I said it at the start of the year, he's best combination of frustration and excitement I've ever seen at quarterback. Cause the dude is an athlete, pure and simple. And he has his moments throwing the ball. But he also has his moments throwing to the other team. The establishment of Benn as a threat helps...and they're playing at home...but I'm just not comfortable enough, not yet, with Williams leading them to victory, especially two weeks in a row, especially against a Wisconsin team that maybe, just maybe, is waiting to show that they're for real. I hope it's this week.
Wisconsin 31 - Illinois 27

North Carolina vs. Miami - 12:00 PM - ESPN2
Butch Davis at home against his old team...Carolina played well on defense last week, but they were playing Virginia Tech's nonexistent offense. Miami rode the wave of the A&M win to a struggle with Duke, 24-14, where they again got solid play from their defense, and Kyle Wright was mildly frustrating - he was 19 of 23, but threw 2 INTs, just enough to make you wonder - so now the Canes, who've lost in Chapel Hill before, will try and move back towards the Top 25. The Canes are more talented, though UNC is capable...but I think it looks more and more like it's going to be another year before Davis has a real threat in North Carolina. Miami wins this round, but not without some drama.
Miami 20 - North Carolina 16

Maryland vs. Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM - LF Sports (ACC)
Two teams coming off huge wins last week - Maryland over Rutgers, Tech over Clemson. At least last week, Georgia Tech resigned itself to running Tashard Choice until he dies (32 for 145 against Clemson) and throwing only in emergency situations (Taylor Bennett 7 of 15) and hoping the defense can make up the difference. I didn't realize until I was looking up stuff for this that Clemson missed four field goals in the 13-3 loss. Nor did I realize that Clemson had 34 rushing yards.

Maryland will try and run as well, with Keon Lattimore coming off his own blue collar performance (34 for 124) against Rutgers. There may be some QB issues as Jordan Steffy had a concussion last week, though Chris Turner helped them win and was a solid 14 of 20 for 149. So look for another low scoring "the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win" game. Georgia Tech is streaky and has also already lost two ACC games this year, while Maryland is a late collapse against Wake Forest away from being undefeated in conference. But The Fridge got them over that and ready to roll in beating Rutgers by 10, and I've gotta think he'll have them ready to go again here. Georgia Tech is probably better, but Maryland, at home, is more consistent. So in a narrow, defensive game, I'll give the slimmest of edges to the Terps.
Maryland 16 - Georgia Tech 14

Auburn vs. Vanderbilt - 12:30 PM - LF Sports (SEC)
You know about Auburn, who is like all the other SEC West teams, and has circled the LSU game and knows they'll have to get past them to get to Atlanta. But that was a nice start last week, and credit Tommy Tuberville for taking a team that had more to feel bad about than anyone else in the SEC, and turning them into the first team to beat Urban Meyer in The Swamp. Don't tell anyone, but Auburn has Florida's number.

So, on to Vanderbilt. You know I'm not going to pick them, but I'm just trying to be fair with the word count. The Dores are 3-1, and - look at this - all three of their wins are by at least two touchdowns. Granted, they've beaten Richmond, Ole Miss, and Eastern Michigan, but in Nashville that's called progress. So the quest for six wins marches on, and includes two more non-conference games with Miami (OH) and Wake Forest. Still, they're going to need another SEC win in there somewhere, and while an often-sleepy Auburn team at Jordan-Hare may actually be their best bet left, I don't see it here. They're still Vanderbilt until proven otherwise.
Auburn 27 - Vanderbilt 20

#24 Kansas State vs. Kansas - 1:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
Since losing to Auburn, Kansas State has been on a tear - it was against nobodies for two weeks, then they unloaded on Texas in Austin to make everyone pay attention. So the Wildcats are in the poll for the first time under Ron Prince, and have reason for optimism down the stretch: they don't play Oklahoma, and get most of their tough Big 12 games at home, save Nebraska. QB Josh Freeman somehow completed 22 passes for only 177 yards (that's 8 per, kids), but it was certainly enough against Texas. The real story is the defense, who picked Colt McCoy 4 times, and will look for more...

...against undefeated Kansas! Nobody's talking about them, and you've gotta take it with a grain of salt, but here's what they've done so far: 52-7 vs. Central Michigan, 62-0 vs. SE Louisiana, 45-13 vs. Toledo, 55-3 vs. Florida International. It's hard to score that many points four weeks in a row against anybody. You've never heard of QB Todd Reesing or RBs Brandon McAnderson or Jake Sharp - and hey, neither had I until I looked them up just now - but they're the names behind the numbers. The Jayhawks were 6-6 last year, but they did blast KSU 39-20 after the Wildcats had beaten Texas. So, in a game where no one knows the players, if you like the team that's blown out nobodies, you take Kansas. If you like a proven Kansas State team...well, seems obvious doesn't it? Kansas needs to beat a team like KSU to get the respect they haven't earned yet. So until then, they'll have to settle for playing KSU closer than Texas did.
Kansas State 35 - Kansas 31

Alabama vs. Houston - 1:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
Older Alabama teams had a knack for losing games like this about once a year. I don't think Saban's bunch will fall here, but he'll need to pull them back together after three emotionally charged games in a row, and the Tide losing the last two. Alabama is another SEC West team with only one conference loss who's looking forward to LSU, and the Tide have Houston and Ole Miss before they play a big game again on the Third Saturday. Houston is fairly decent - they beat Tulane and Colorado State, scored 27 on Oregon in a loss, and missed two 4th quarter field goals last week in a loss to East Carolina. The offense will have a chance to score points here. But the difference between Saban and others should be on display here, as he'll have the Tide ready to go. At least that's what the Tide are hoping 4 million dollars is worth these days.
Alabama 34 - Houston 24

Washington State vs. #18 Arizona State - 3:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
In each of Wazzou's three losses, they've given up 40+ points: 42 at Wisconsin, 47 at Southern Cal, 48 at Arizona. So at least they're at home this week, when the undefeated Sun Devils come calling with another high powered offense. Rudy Carpenter and an underrated rushing attack should have no problem staying undefeated, as Washington State continues to look for answers. Anything can happen in the wacky Pac-10, but all signs point to ASU in this one.
Arizona State 30 - Washington State 20

Oregon State vs. Arizona - 3:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
The aforementioned Wildcats are riding high, and Willie Tuitama looked like a Heisman candidate against Wazzou (22 of 31, 346 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rushing TD). And Arizona can run too, with the young Nicholas Grigsby going for 186 on the ground. They get Oregon State, who looked impressive in the season opener against Utah, and have since gone the same direction as the Utes. And the Beavers don't just get beat, they get blown out - 34-3 at Cincy, 44-32 at Arizona State, 40-14 against UCLA. So even playing in Corvallis here, and even with Arizona's youth, the Wildcats are too hot and the Beavers are in too great a tailspin to go against Arizona here. Maybe the boys under Mike Stoops can make the program relevant again after all.
Arizona 38 - Oregon State 24

#10 Oklahoma vs. #19 Texas (at Dallas) - 3:30 PM - ABC
The Red River Fallout (thanks ESPN) still is of great significance in the Big 12, and could still end up making or breaking a BCS bid for both teams come December. But the difference here may be in how both teams lost last week. Colorado made Sam Bradford look like a freshman for the first time all year, and really stuffed the Sooners, holding them to a stunning 230 yards of total offense. But there was also a sense of everything simply going right for CU and wrong for OU in the 4th quarter, as despite the stats the Sooners had a big lead and simply let it slip away late. Oklahoma is young on offense, remember. So you had to figure, no matter how great they looked against Miami and others, there was going to be one of these games along the way.

Texas got blown out. At home. By Kansas State. Again. Colt McCoy had four picks and a concussion, and perhaps this was simply the full manifestation of what we've seen from Texas all year - the close wins over Arkansas State and Central Florida proved the Horns already weren't a Top 10 team, and both the poor performances and the blowout last week show the difference between the one loss Sooners at #10, and the one loss Horns at #19.

Only way I can see Texas in this one, both before last week and now, was if they get a lead and then OU starts to feel like the Horns have their number. But there's no Vince Young on the other side of the ball, and despite OU's offensive struggles last week, if Kansas State can hang 41 on them in Austin, the weapons for the Sooners, now that they've gotten their reality check, may go to work on Texas' defense. Things can fall apart very fast, and I think that's getting ready to be the case this year for Texas. It's happy days are here again in this rivalry, as Oklahoma resumes control.
Oklahoma 27 - Texas 20

Florida State vs. NC State - 3:30 PM - ABC
It's Xavier Lee week in Tallahassee, after helping lead the Noles to the "impressive" win over Alabama. Quietly, the Noles have only one loss and are trying to slip back into the Top 25, and in the ACC, it's still anybody's game. In other news, NC State is 1-4, and the 1 is Wofford. Trouble.
Florida State 24 - NC State 6

Penn State vs. Iowa - 3:30 PM - ABC
A "save the season" game for both teams, and one I'm sure ABC wishes they could have back. Penn State has gone from Kirk Herbstreit's top five to out of the polls, with two preventable losses to Michigan and Illinois. Despite the fact that the Nittany Lions could arguably be undefeated, they've gotta get more production out of Anthony Morelli. Iowa, meanwhile, has lost three straight to Iowa State, Wisconsin, and an 18 point loss to Indiana last week that flew under the radar with all the other upsets going on. The Hawkeyes don't appear, after this string of losses, to be a Big 10 threat, but they can still make some noise if they can pull the road upset here. But that's not likely - Penn State, even struggling, has more weapons on both sides of the ball, and the home field advantage will only push their edge.
Penn State 24 - Iowa 13

Tennessee vs. #12 Georgia - 3:30 PM - CBS
As stated, it's the crossroads for the Vols. If you win, you could be in control of your own SEC destiny on Sunday morning. If you lose, the for sale signs are going up in Phillip Fulmer's front yard. I cannot remember a more definitive risk/reward game.

Erik Ainge has become one of the finer quarterbacks in the nation, but the Vols have to get a quality win before anyone's going to talk about more than his broken pinky. Surprisingly, it was Auburn who showed the type of gameplan last week at Florida the Vols need to use to be effective: establish the run well enough to use your talents at QB and WR - who'd have thought we'd be 2-2 and calling our receivers "talented" - to pick apart the secondary. This Georgia defense was mopped up last year by Ainge, and most of those guys are playing on Sunday now. Ainge continues to play well, in part, because he's not threatened in the pocket. So the offensive line must again come to play.

And yet again, it's the defense that must rise to the challenge. Georgia will bring weapons in Matthew Stafford, Brown & Moreno, Massaquoi & Bailey. If you can say anything positive about the Vol D, it's that this won't be the first time they've seen talent like this. However, if that means the Dawgs are going to score somewhere between Cal's 45 and Florida's 59, Tennessee is looking at 2-3.

I hate that it's gotten to where you hold your breath and pray for a punt or a fluke turnover everytime we're on defense, but that's where we are. You feel like it's a huge victory when the punter trots on the field. And you feel pressed on offense to score everytime we touch the ball. And Saturday, it may turn into one of those 41-40 games, because both defenses have questions, and both offenses have answers. But preferably, the Vol defense will do more than improve - they'll be a positive instead of a prayer.

This is the last breath of hope for 2007, and for Fulmer. And we can go into the lament of his career and legacy if we lose this week, perhaps. But right now, a good season is still on the table and right in front of us. But if we lose, Saturday will probably be the last time you walk into Neyland Stadium this year with something real to play for. And that's frightening.

So I want to believe that this isn't the end. I want to believe that this Tennessee team can still play like a Tennessee team should. I want to believe that the Vols are better than they've showed. And yeah, I'm going to pick them every week between here and the end of time, playing Vanderbilt or the Patriots. But more than just winning - which yeah, would be enough on this day, be it 41-40 or 3-2 - I want to see something to help my unbelief. I still believe. I'd just like to taste some proof in my pudding.

But because I believe, even if it's for the last real time this year, then let's go ahead and believe that the Vols play like they're supposed to. Let's not hold back. If we're going out, let's go out with a bang. And if we're still alive...then let's kill em anyway. Because by God, only Smokey eats at the adult table.
Tennessee 45 - Georgia 23

#22 Clemson vs. #15 Virginia Tech - 6:00 PM - ESPN
Warning: Clemson tailspin approaching. I thought they'd last one more week, but it was all pretend, as the Tigers scored a mighty three points in Atlanta last week. Now they catch Virginia Tech, who traditionally drops the hammer on them. Last year in a Thursday night game I was in attendance for, Clemson came to Blacksburg thinking BCS and left on the business end of a 24-7 beatdown that started the 2006 dive. They're at home this time around, but the doubters will be out in full force. And you can count me among them.

Now, let's be clear: to say that Virginia Tech struggles on offense is being nice about it. The Hokies haven't done anything against anyone all year. The defense has been solid, but not necessarily among the best in the nation as they were last year. However, if they shut down Davis & Spiller the way they did last year - and no reason to think they won't - do you think Cullen Harper's going to score points on them? Me neither. This is one where I'd almost play Sean Glennon, though if it's Taylor (and it will be) I'd tell him he gets a gold star for no interceptions. Virginia Tech can win this game 7-3. I'm sure it'll be more exciting than that...but not by much. These are, traditionally, the type of games Clemson loses and VT wins. No reason to go against tradition just yet - VT escapes with its anemic offense intact.
Virginia Tech 17 - Clemson 13

#2 Southern Cal vs. Stanford - 7:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
Think the Trojans are a little upset about being passed in the polls? Jim Harbaugh, duck and cover.
Southern Cal 55 - Stanford 13

#21 Rutgers vs. #20 Cincinnati - 7:00 PM - ESPN2
Toughest call of the week. This is the Kansas State/Kansas scenario playing out again, only with better teams. Cincy is 5-0 with five blowouts, combined score 232-53. The most "impressive" of the five was the 34-3 spanking of Oregon State, but everything else can be written off if they don't beat Rutgers. Ben Mauk continues to be a weapon at QB, and the defense has played well outside of giving up 23 to San Diego State last week. Can this team win on the road?

Rutgers is a mystery...the Scarlet Knights won three nobody games of their own, took a week off, then got run on for 239 by Maryland in a 34-24 loss. Rutgers got physically beaten in the game with the Terps - can Cincinnati do the same?

This is an uber-important Big East matchup, especially with the conference appearing so wide open. Rutgers worked the magic last year, and has enough offensive weapons to challenge Cincy's defense. But the Bearcats have been lying in wait for several years now, and 2007 might be their year in the Big East. And if Rutgers is still hungover from last week, Cincy's good enough to roll them at home. However, until Cincy proves it on the road in a big game like this one, I'm going to play it safe and stick with Rutgers to stay in front of the Big East race.
Rutgers 28 - Cincinnati 27

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State - 7:30 PM - Fox Sports Net
Oklahoma State has lost non-conference blowouts to Georgia and Troy, but the Mike Gundy special over Texas Tech has the Cowboys unbeaten in Big 12 play. From here, it's seven straight games, starting here on the road at College Station. And though the story is two weeks old, I'm betting that Gundy's "Come after me! I'm a man! I'm 40!" bit rallied his troops behind him, in a show that the coach will stick up for his boys.

A&M, meanwhile, "rebounded" from the Miami thrashing by beating mighty Baylor 34-10. But Farmer Fran has had more than plenty of time to get A&M in the title hunt, and the natives have to be getting restless. So, as we did with Miami, and let's hope it works again, my hatred for Fran and the Aggies will once again allow me to get reckless. But hey, I'd follow Mike Gundy through the fires of hell. Who's the kid here?
Oklahoma State 31 - Texas A&M 23

#1 LSU vs. #9 Florida - 8:00 PM - CBS
We're not even going to entertain it. Nevermind the fact that LSU always self-destructs against Florida. Nevermind the fact that Urban Meyer teams haven't lost two straight games in almost five years. Nevermind the fact that everyone is picking against Florida for the first time I can remember. After Tennessee wins, LSU is going to do the same. Not that it won't be exciting along the way. But if I'm delusional enough to pick Tennessee over Georgia by three touchdowns, don't think that I've given this one any logical thought either.
LSU 24 - Florida 20

#23 Purdue vs. #4 Ohio State - 8:00 PM - ABC
Alright...back to objective thought, in an equally difficult game to pick. Ohio State earned my respect in the performance at Washington, but it won't be free in West Lafayette. If Curtis Painter wants to entertain Heisman thoughts, he has to win this one. The Big 10 is going to be up in the air for awhile it seems, and Purdue can throw its hat in the race with a win here.

Ohio State, despite its #4 ranking, is largely under the radar with no real superstars outside of The Little Animal on defense. But the Buckeyes have had a way of getting it done in the regular season this decade, so you always pick against them at your own risk. Ohio State's defense gets put in the fire for the first real time this year, but I think their offense will have enough against Purdue's D to carry the way, if they can avoid turnovers. Painter is good, but I don't think he's Drew Brees good, and I don't think he can carry this team by himself to the next level. Ohio State narrowly gets it done on the road.
Ohio State 30 - Purdue 28

UCLA vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 PM - ABC
We're going to keep picking Notre Dame games this year, just so I can continue to enjoy picking against them every week. Nothing against Jimmy Clausen, but seeing Notre Dame lose is just good for the soul. UCLA is tricky and usually loses big games...but come on. Let's just keep the happy thoughts and the ND slide going.
UCLA 30 - Notre Dame 14

#17 Missouri vs. #25 Nebraska - 9:15 PM - ESPN
Here's another lying in the weeds undefeated team, in Missouri. Nebraska's defense is questionable and has been exploited more than once, but so has Missouri's - they struggled with Illinois and Ole Miss, and I don't think either of those teams are as good as Nebraska. This game may end up deciding the Big 12 North and a shot at the BCS...last year, Nebraska won this game by two touchdowns in Lincoln. It won't be that bad this year, but again, until I see it in a game like this from Missouri, I'm going to default to Nebraska. Playing it safe was a terrible idea last week...let's hope it balances out this week.
Nebraska 31 - Missouri 27

The Crossroads of Tennessee Football

Sometimes we/I want things to be bigger than they are. We want to feel like things are more special, or they're unique, or we're playing on a level or stage we've never been to before. Both Phillip Fulmer and every basketball coach since Wade Houston have scored several W's that were called "the most important win of their careers" in the days following. There have been several games where you can look at them in hindsight - for Fulmer, 1995 against Alabama or Ohio State, 1997 against Auburn, a multitude of games from 1998, 2001 at Florida - where they've become mythical, career-defining Ws. The early ones helped lay the foundation and progress his career, the latter ones helped cement it.

But the problem is, now the foundation has cracks that are becoming more apparent. The years have piled on since the last national championship (9), conference championship (9), or division title (3). The SEC is a here and now world, and the here and now for the Vols isn't where we want it to be.

And so we arrive at the crossroads, both for Fulmer and for Tennessee. And it will never be more glaringly apparent than it will Saturday afternoon, when the Georgia Bulldogs come to town.

The 2007 incarnation of the Vols and Dawgs won't be the biggest game in program history for either team. The Vols are unranked and Georgia's not undefeated. It won't become the biggest win in the legacies of Phil Fulmer or Mark Richt. But for the 2007 season, and for the career of Phillip Fulmer, this is the crossroads. And while this won't be anywhere near the biggest game in Fulmer's tenure, and hindsight will always be 20/20, five days beforehand, it clearly appears to be the most important game for Fulmer's career, right here, right now. The crossroads have never been more apparent.

Polls on the News-Sentinel's website have fan support for Phillip Fulmer at an alltime low, with around 70% against him at this point. Tennessee hasn't had a great year since 2004, had a low point in 2005, and then balanced the good memories from the fast start in 2006 with losses to LSU, Arkansas, and Penn State.

And here's the thing about the two losses this year, because part of you feels like it can't be the worst thing in the world. In 2002, the Vols finished 8-5...but that team was also decimated by injuries. They gave away 24 points in less than five minutes in an unbelieveably-freakish fashion in the rain against Florida. They started CJ Leak and played James Banks at Georgia. They lost Kelley Washington before the Alabama game. They had no answer for #1 Miami. Some fans didn't even really get mad at them until the Peach Bowl loss to Maryland. But either way, injuries took a lot of the blame in 02, and it was Fulmer's first real blemish.

In 2005 - where the Vols, just as they had in 2002, started in the Top 5 - all of the losses were close except one. The Vols lost by 9 at Florida, then beat LSU in The Rally at Death Valley for a memorable scrapbook piece, lost to Georgia by 13, lost to Alabama by 3 on a freak fumble, lost to South Carolina by 1, then got blasted by Notre Dame, and lost to Vanderbilt by 4. 2005 cost Randy Sanders his job...but again, you can make the argument that the Vols were right there all year.

This time around, there's no marquee (05 LSU) or memorable (02 Arkansas 6 OTs) win at this point. There are few injuries - really, I don't think we're going to blame the 2-2 start on Antonio Gaines or even Erik Ainge's pinky. And the losses haven't been close, even if it may have felt like it - 45-31 at Cal, 59-20 at Florida. The latter being the worst loss of the Fulmer administration. Both of them including an MIA defense. Both spelling trouble.

If Tennesee loses, they'll be 2-3. And while they won't be mathematically eliminated from the SEC East race, they'll have lost to Florida and Georgia, which are the two most important games of the year. And at 2-3, while a decent year could still be saved, all hopes of a season that's viewed as unanimously good will go out the window. In the minds of most, the season will be effectively over, and you'll hear something you never thought you'd hear: "Wait 'til basketball season."

If Tennessee loses, while Fulmer could probably save his job by winning out from that point, he may not be able to save his perception with the fanbase. And that alone may be too much for Mike Hamilton to ignore. And while I'm not a proponent of discussing a coach's fate during the season, I don't believe Hamilton lives in that world. Neither do the majority of Vol fans, most of whom are angry already. They already want Fulmer's head. If Tennessee loses on Saturday, it's going to become a roar. And for the first time in Fulmer's career, you look at a game, and you think that he might not survive this. Randy Sanders isn't around to take the fall in 2007. Fulmer's grace is gone. This is it.

In 1992, when all of this started for Fulmer, Johnny Majors returned to an undefeated team, won a couple games from there, then lost to Arkansas and Alabama in succession to go from National Championship contender to afterthought. Fulmer was a hot commodity, and the voices against Majors were louder and louder. And the Vols went to South Carolina...and you felt like, if Majors lost again, that Fulmer would become the man. 15 years later, the story may have come full circle.

But...

What's interesting about that 92 South Carolina game is that, despite the struggles and the unrest and all of that, if the Vols won, they'd control their own destiny in the SEC East. All they had to do was win, and they'd be fine. Instead, the Vols lost by one point, and down went Majors.

In 2007, the SEC East won't be decided on Saturday. This appears to be a fight to the finish, and the Vols' remaining SEC schedule offers nothing free, and will offer the beauty and the curse of a big game every week. This isn't about dominance anymore, it's about survival and being the last man standing. And right now, thanks to Auburn, Tennessee is still in that race.

If Tennessee loses, it'll be tangible glooom and doom. The program, and the career of Fulmer, will fall deeper into tailspin. Nothing good down that path.

But...

If Tennessee wins, they'll have put some forward momentum in a 2007 season that really needs it right now. The Vols are 2-2 and unranked, and the wins over Southern Miss and Arkansas State aren't making the Vol Nation feel any better. Beating Georgia is always fun - and the Dawgs haven't lost in Knoxville since...wait for it...1999. That's right - three games, three wins, and really it was three plays:

- The "Hobnailed Boot" pass at the end of David Greene's mythical drive in 2001 in a 26-24 Georgia win, that would've been arguably the most heartbreaking loss of all time in Knoxville, if something worse didn't happen later that year in Atlanta.

- The fumbled exchange from Casey Clausen on a handoff at the end of the first half in 2003, with the Vols trailing 13-7 but going in to score, which was then recovered by Georgia and returned 90+ yards for a touchdown. Instead of 14-13 Vols, it was 20-7 Dawgs. Floodgates, engage. Georgia goes on to win 41-14.

- A backbreaking 4th quarter punt return in 2005, once more turning a 13-7 game into a 20-7 hole that could not be overcome. Georgia went on to win 27-14, and the 05 season would only get worse.

While the Vols have silenced the Athens masses by winning between the hedges in each of their last two trips, not allowing Georgia to walk out of Neyland with a win again is big all by itself. Doing so might be enough to get the Vols back in the Top 25.

And again...Florida's loss offers real hope. Just as it's true that Fulmer's probably toast if the Vols lose, if the Vols win, they'll probably be in control of their own destiny if LSU beats Florida three hours later. And it'll take all year to bring it home...but the Vols can be right back in the front of the line on Saturday. That's not spin or false hope or dreams, that's fact - a Tennessee win and an LSU win - both of whom are favored - would put Tennessee ahead of Florida on the path to Atlanta. Believe it or not, optimist or pessimist, you can't argue fact.

And back in control and riding the momentum of a win over Georgia, I can promise you it'll feel like a new season on Sunday morning. No matter how bad September was, if the Vols and LSU win on Saturday, it'll all be made new. And if that happens, then we can talk about how it's going to be a nervous breakdown sort of ride towards Atlanta every week. But for now - and for the future if it happens - it's just about this week. I cannot remember a greater risk/reward game in the history of Tennessee Football.

Does Fulmer have what it takes to pull this one out? Will the Vols be up off the deck and executing at the necessary level to be #12 Georgia? The only comparison I can think of is the 5 OT game with Alabama in 2003, when the Vols had lost at Auburn, then got blown out at home against Georgia (the 41-14 game), then had an off week, and the natives were restless. And as those overtimes played on in Tuscaloosa, and there were several moments where it seemed like the Vols were beat, I sat in the upper deck that night and wondered if Randy Sanders would be fired right away if we lost, or if he'd survive the rest of the year and then get the axe. And as stated, there's no Randy Sanders in 2007.

But the Vols won. It took 5 OTs and some "unwatchable" football, but they won. And by hook or by crook, suddenly things were better. And then a few weeks later, the Vols went to Miami as double digit underdogs and won again, and would eventually vault to #6 in the polls before losing to Clemson in another Georgia Dome disaster. But the point remains - in this game, you can go from the gallows to glory in a heartbeat.

And so now, it's never been more clear for Fulmer. If you lose, you lose the season in the minds of many, and we start talking about how bad it can get. Or worse for the program, we start talking about basketball. That's not a joke, and that is what will happen. And it's also not a joke that if you lose, you're putting your job in someone else's hands.

But if you win, you can be back on the road to glory, even if Florida wins in Baton Rouge. Best and most realistic scenario - again, the Vols and Tigers are the favorites on Saturday - has Tennessee in control of its own destiny on Sunday morning. And all things will be new. It's a nightmare if you lose. It could be a championship if you win. There is no middle ground. For Phillip Fulmer, for 2007, and for the direction of Tennessee Football, Saturday at Neyland Stadium is the definitive crossroads.

All you have to do is win.