Right.

The pessimist says, "Florida beat us by 39, Auburn beat Florida, and Auburn can't even beat Mississippi State?! We suck!"

The optimst says, "Only seven more days until we're in first place in the SEC East!"

The realist says, "We'd better beat Georgia."

But I, at least for tonight, will simply say War Eagle.

The times, they are a changing...

If there's any truth to the statement "too much of a good thing", ESPN GamePlan might be it. It allows you to indulge in the full gluttony of college football, with its only possible downfall being that, on afternoons like this one, the trusty viewer tries to watch a little bit of six games at once and ends up seeing no real quality portion of any of them.

So on today's 3:30ish slate, you've got no real must-see matchup or SEC battle, but several four star games, which leaves me to pursue carpal tunnel by watching, psuedo-simultaneously, Cal at Oregon, Kansas State at Texas, Michigan State at Wisconsin, Maryland at Rutgers, Clemson at Georgia Tech, and the ongoing defensive you-say-epic/I-say-struggle between Alabama and Florida State. And all of them go deep into the 4th quarter. But on the other side - coupled with some early afternoon upsets - you find a college football landscape that looks much different than it has in years past.

At 7:20 PM on Saturday, September 29, here are the remaining undefeated teams in college football:

ACC - Boston College
Big East - Cincinnati, UConn, South Florida
Big 10 - Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 - Kansas, Missouri
Pac-10 - Arizona State, California, Southern Cal
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, LSU
non-BCS - Hawaii

(Cincy is at San Diego State, Ohio State at Minnesota, Arizona State at Stanford and Florida home to Auburn, all later tonight)

Even giving all four of those games tonight to the undefeated teams, that means that as the calendar turns to October, only 16 undefeated teams remain. This week - so far - six of the top 13 teams in the AP poll have lost, and only one of them - Oregon, to Cal on the definition of heartbreak, as they re-enacted Tennessee/Alabama 2005 at Autzen Stadium - lost to a Top 15 team. West Virginia's weapons disappeared in the South Florida night on Friday. Oklahoma stopped playing mistake-free football long enough to give Colorado the win Dan Hawkins needed. Texas got housed by Kansas State 41-21, and they were playing at home in what was supposed to be a revenge game, where Colt McCoy was booed off the field before the training staff could get him in the locker room. Rutgers got beat at home by Maryland by ten. Clemson scored all of three points at Georgia Tech. The only survivor of the afternoon was Wisconsin, in a "are you sure this is the Big 10?" game against Michigan State, 37-34.

So if you look at the landscape right now, with the Gators set to kickoff in around 30 minutes, you've got three "dominant" teams, and that's it. And two of them play each other next week, and might meet again in December. Is this going to turn into Southern Cal vs. whoever survives LSU and Florida, and all the drama is already gone?

See, I don't think so. Because based on what you've seen so far, if so many teams can lose on any given week - and so many "good" teams have already lost twice this year - what makes anyone think that USC and LSU/Florida are so much better than everyone else? The art that Florida mastered last year - winning games - will need to be on full display by whoever wins this thing. And maybe I'm wrong, and maybe this will be a replay of 2005, where Southern Cal and Texas were clear cut 1 and 2 all year. But right now, this may turn into one of those years where no one is undefeated. And that hasn't happened at the end of a regular season since the early 90s.

The gap is closing, not just in the SEC, but everywhere. No longer are 2-3 programs dominant in every conference - notice who's still undefeated (and who's not) in all the conferences except the Pac-10 and SEC - and LSU and Southern Cal may simply be the last two to fall instead of the two that rise above because they're so much better - because I just don't think they are.

And so it makes you feel a little better as we prepare to play the "every play counts" game when needing a Florida loss every week between now and Christmas. It makes you want to believe, even though your head knows better, that Auburn has a real chance tonight.

And if this does turn into a year where there are no undefeated teams but five teams with one loss - the true nightmare of the BCS system, which they haven't had to deal with yet - it should make fans of all major powerhouses calm down a bit, and adjust to the changing, uber-competitive climate of the FBS. But of course, it won't. And that spells trouble for more than just the Phillip Fulmers of the world. Going undefeated, while still the goal on the majority of campuses in the major conferences, may be becoming less the rule and more the exception. For teams like Tennessee, who face a big game against Georgia next Saturday, the fanbase is trying to reconcile the term "big game" with a 2-2 record in the first weekend of October. But it's true. And this is also why it's continually stupid to say "so and so is going 9-3 this year" in August, because this game is becoming more and more week to week. If you looked at Texas' schedule, you would've only circled one or two games that might get in their way between Austin and New Orleans. Instead, they just proved they could not only be beaten, but be blown away at home by a team that was thought to be a sure victory. And the Longhorns aren't alone. It's everybody. All that coachspeak about taking them one at a time has never been more true.

And with that, lets hope that this one and this time belong to Auburn tonight. Because if everyone is so even after all, then Florida should just go ahead and lose one to prove my point, right? Right?

College Football Picks - September 29

I've had a busy week so far, and there's not even a Tennessee game to make it better. So here are some abbreviated thoughts on Saturday's games...

The noon games once again, on paper, offer little in the way of drama - Purdue over Notre Dame, LSU over Tulane, among others, appear to offer little drama. Some teams needing solid performances against decent competition include Virginia Tech against North Carolina, Michigan at Northwestern, and the potentially upset friendly Penn State at Illinois. I'll take the favorites in all three there, cautiously.

In the SEC early games, Georgia hosts Ole Miss and South Carolina hosts Mississippi State. Both home teams should win, though both are coming off huge games last week and may be looking back or looking ahead - Georgia's in Knoxville next week, while South Carolina plays Kentucky in what's suddenly a huge game next Thursday night. Still, UGA and USC should emerge victorious.

A trio of afternoon Big 12 games should go to the ranked teams - Nebraska over Iowa State, Oklahoma at Colorado, and Texas avenging last year's loss against Kansas State. The ACC showdowns are more interesting, including some out-of-conference games for Maryland (at Rutgers) and NC State (vs. a reeling Louisville team). The Cards are on life support already, losing in Raleigh would finish off their year. I'll cautiously take Rutgers and Louisville in both contests - Steve Kragthorpe is in desperate need. And it usually always goes wrong when I pick a Clemson game, but I'll take the Tigers on the road against a Yellow Jacket team that's lost two straight and their only "marquee" win is over Notre Dame. Oops. And Wisconsin can earn a little more respect by beating Michigan State at home, which they should, but not much. They need a big win.

GameDay is in Eugene, where now that Cal has proven they can win a big game, they'll get to prove they can do so in a hostile environment. With two explosive offenses - and I'm thinking that Oregon's is at least as good as the Vols' and their 31 at Berkeley - it's a situation where the team that capitalizes and makes the fewest mistakes will get it done. I'm probably too attached to the idea of Cal being really really good - which is why I'm going with the Bears - but either teams that wins becomes a legitimiate National Championship contender. Like I said, I want it to be Cal more than I think it'll be, but we'll go with the Bears either way.

Most interesting game of the day - Alabama and Florida State in Jacksonville. A few months ago, I wrote that I could picture an Alabama blowout here. And thus far, there's evidence to support that claim. Florida State has struggled each of the last two seasons, and doesn't have a recent history of being able to all of a sudden turn it on in a game like this. If Saban has the Tide ready to go after the heartbreak last week, look out. Alabama is good now and is only going to get better, while the sun may be setting in Tallahassee. Alabama - big.

An upset I will commit to this week: Oregon State at home over UCLA, who's too erratic to win two straight big games with Ben Olsen having issues with headaches. Rounding out the weekend, I'm going Virginia over Pittsburgh, Southern Cal in a tough spot on the road at Washington in a game that's close in the second half, Florida big at home against Auburn, Ohio State big on the road at Minnesota (watch out for the Buckeyes), Arizona State at home over Stanford, and Washington State in a coin-flip game at Arizona.

College Football Picks - September 27 & 28

Last Week: 17-6
This Season: 57-19

Thursday, September 27
Arkansas State vs. Memphis - 7:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
Behold the power of the Sun Belt. Arkansas State showed some weaponry on offense against the Vols, and are a tough 1-2 with competitive performances against Texas and Tennessee. As for Memphis...well, it's been better. The 56-20 blowout at the hands of Central Florida, coupled with the opening weekend loss to Ole Miss and a throwaway win over Jacksonville State, the Tigers are 1-2 and Tommy West has a long season in front of him. The schedule will offer some opportunities for easier wins down the road, but right now Memphis has no offense, and Arkansas State has players in Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold. The misery continues for Memphis.
Arkansas State 38 - Memphis 17

Boise State vs. Southern Miss - 7:30 PM - ESPN
An interesting and tough call here...it's usually disastrous to pick against Boise on the blue turf, but the question for 07 is are these the same Boise State Broncos? After the loss at UDub, the Broncs got it done in a tough 24-14 home win over a fairly decent Wyoming team. But the offense isn't the machine it used to be, apparently - 10 points at Washington, who just gave up 44 to UCLA, who scored 6 against Utah. The 24 against Wyoming also isn't overly impressive. It's hard to blame it all on new QB Taylor Tharp, but that's what inquiring minds are going to do. Washington and Wyoming had some success jamming up against Ian Johnson - 44 carries, 144 yards in the two games combined, for 3.7 yards per carry which is way south of what he's used to - but we've seen that Southern Miss isn't the world's greatest at stopping the run.

More importantly, can the Eagles score enough points on the road against an underrated defense? The Boise offense and coaching staff got all the praise and recognition over this most recent run, but it's been the defense that's kept them alive so far this year. Can USM exploit them enough to get/stay in front of the Broncos? I like the USM weapons in a mid-major showdown like this, but I think Boise's defense shows up big again, and protects the Blue Turf. Southern Miss was the mid-major team of the 90s, but Boise will show here that they've taken that mantle this decade, whatever that's worth.
Boise State 20 - Southern Miss 16

Friday, September 28
#18 South Florida vs. #5 West Virginia - 8:00 PM - ESPN2
Forget Louisville, at this point. This may end up being the game that decides the Big East Championship. And there's none of that "South Florida doesn't have what it takes to win" talk - the Bulls beat West Virginia in Morgantown last year, then turned around and won at Auburn this year. This team is good, experienced, and will be ready to trade blows with the Mountaineers on Friday night.

Nobody's played with West Virginia for the duration so far this year - they've had one sleepy half against Marshall and another to a lesser degree with Maryland, but over the course of sixty minutes they've had way too much offense for everyone they've played so far. But there's the rub - South Florida beat them with defensive excellence last year, in a 24-19 game that featured bending but not breaking. You'll need more of the same, but again, it's nothing they haven't already done before. This to me is an even matchup - if you pick West Virginia, it has to be because you simply think they're better, not because USF hasn't proven something or can't do this or that.

The Bulls came back from the Auburn win to smoke UNC 37-10 last week. Matt Grothe may not be a superstar at QB, but he is efficient, and once again he won't be facing the best defense in the world in the Mountaineers. One potential problem is that no consistent credible running threat has been established in the USF backfield to this point - the Bulls are yet to have a 100 yard rusher this year - and so even with their limitations, West Virginia may not have to overcommit to the run, and thus can force Grothe to beat them. He'll need and Auburn-esque performance, with no turnovers. South Florida will need to Delbert Alvarado not to miss multiple field goals, especially if this turns into a shootout.

On the other side, Pat White has been throwing the ball better than we've ever seen, which is the compliment needed to go with Steve Slaton and the rest of the horses in the WV attack. South Florida is once again likely to challenge that and try to gear up to stop Slaton first, but running the spread option forces a defense to be accountable for everything all at once, and should open up holes for White, Slaton, or Devine.

If both teams play their best football, West Virginia will win because they've got more talent, plain and simple. I think West Virginia's great offense will have an easier time scoring on South Florida's great defense than South Florida's average offense will have scoring on West Virginia's average defense. I think Rich Rodriguez will have them in revenge mode, and especially now that there's not an Armageddon game with Louisville out there lurking on the horizon, there's no need to focus anywhere else than this one. South Florida is good, but West Virginia is special. And championship teams get it done on the road - if West Virginia wants to be in that USC-LSU-OU-UF conversation, this is the game that can get them in it.
West Virginia 27 - South Florida 24

Random Thoughts - Tuesday September 25

The Titans are for real
Playing on national television for the first time since 2004, the Titans put the hammer down on the Saints in New Orleans, 31-14 on Monday Night Football. And while much of the nation may have wanted to see Reggie Bush and Vince Young trade highlights, once you realized that this is the NFL and not the Rose Bowl, you may have liked what you saw from VY even more. And the best part about that is, it wasn't just his win - this was a definitive team win.

For Young, he played with poise and efficiency. He, of course, still has the wheels to get away from pressure, and being that it was the first time I'd actually seen him play in a Titans uniform, I felt like a little kid when he tucked and turned on the afterburners to make what looked like 3rd and short on the next play turn into a first down with a step or two to spare. He was 14 of 22, 164 yards with 2 TDs and a pick - not a Peyton Manning effort, but that may not be needed. He completed passes to seven different players. He stayed in the pocket when it was there. He made a few lasers, putting the ball in the only hole he could at exactly the right time for a first down. You could tell from his pregame and postgame comments, it's like he was tired of hearing about Michael Vick and Vince Young in the same sentence. And he's right - at least thru roughly one season of starting games, Young appears both more intelligent with his decision making, and just a flat out better passer than Vick. And VY understands he doesn't have to do it all.

The Titans got workmanlike days from their workmanlike players on offense - Chris Brown, LenDale White, Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Eric Moulds, Bo Scaife - none of those guys are going to the Pro Bowl. But together, they get it done. And when you're efficient and you've got a defense like this one, you can go a long way.

The defense was the most encouraging factor of the night. The line looked absolutely dominant at times - Al Haynesworth is twice the player when the team is good and he feels like he has something to play for - and Kyle Vanden Bosch continues to be more than solid off the end. And Keith Bulluck - 3 INTs - continues to give weight to that "most underrated LB in the NFL" banner he's been carrying around since he came into the league. And if the wins keep piling up, he'll shed that one too. And again, outside of Bulluck, who's the name player on this defense? Even Haynesworth, right now, is more known for behavioral issues than great, consistent football. Superstars are few and far between, which makes it easier for everyone to fall all over Vince Young. But that performance was incredible in all facets. Now the Titans get a week off, which they'll use to realize that the Colts are 3-0 in the AFC South, and everyone else is 2-1. So it's a long season. But right now, it's a good season.

And yeah, I'll say it - they look like the 98 Vols, don't they? The athletic quarterback, the no-superstarts mantra, the steady hand at head coach, the LB who becomes a superstar, the amount of times you can use "workmanlike" to describe them...like I said, right now, it's good.

The Braves won't die...at least not yet...
With six games to play, the Braves are five back of the Mets in the NL East...which means Atlanta's elimination number is 2 in that race. So that's clearly next to impossible.

But the once-hot Padres have lost three straight and 2/3 of their outfield, and so if the Braves do make the playoffs, they can thank Milton Bradley and his argument-induced torn ACL. San Diego's third straight loss yesterday ties them with the mighty Phillies atop the Wild Card. Colorado is a game back...and there's Atlanta, three games back and heading to Philly for three games. So once more, the Braves can take care of the Phillies on their own. What they'll need is for the Padres (and Rockies) to keep losing. So while Atlanta restructured its rotation to throw Chuck James, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz in the next three days in Philly (before heading to Houston to close), the Padres are at San Francisco and at Milwaukee, while the Rockies play the Dodgers and D-Backs.

And again, yeah, they could really be out of it tomorrow. But right now they're here, relevant in the last week of the regular season. It's playoff baseball in Philadelphia this week for the next three nights. And we'll go from there. At least today, it's still possible.

It's Christmas in September
Halo 3, which might be the most anticipated video game of all time, hits stores today. I'm attempting to take the day off. If you're into the Halo saga, you can check out one of the best marketing websites for any new release - video game or otherwise - I've ever seen at halo3.com/believe. So after I'm done finishing the fight today, I'll be online in multiplayer for the forseeable future. Come after me! I'm a man! I'm 25!

Random Thoughts - Saturday September 22

10:13 AM
Like I said, as soon as I start talking about the Braves, they'll lose, and the Mets will win. So now we're 5.5 back with 8 to play, even though Tim Hudson was on fire thru 7 and change last night, but the bats and the bullpen couldn't back him in an eventual 5-1 loss. And yet again, they're challenging my college football passion by playing at 3:55 in the afternoon today. But maybe LSU will already be up 2 touchdowns by then.

GameDay's in Tuscaloosa, where it's already been pointed out that the Tide lose everytime that happens (0-4). Early favorites for signs today: "SABAN DIED FOR YOUR SINS" from Alabama, and "KNO LIMIT SOLDIER" from Georgia. Ah, SEC football.

10:21 AM
They just ran a feature on Boston College, and that's the first time I've seen Matt Ryan with his helmet off. He looks 12. He also dresses and smiles like he should be on staff at a church. But at least those road whites looked good last week for the Eagles.

10:39 AM
Randy Sanders is getting love now on a GameDay piece on Andre Woodson. And good for him - no matter what anyone else says unintelligently, Tennessee fans should be pulling for Sanders. Then Corso turned around and said Arkansas will win tonight by at least two touchdowns.

And people must be tired or slow or whatever in Tuscaloosa, because it's unnervingly quiet there when the guys aren't talking about Alabama.

2:53 PM
Everytime you have one of those weeks like this one, where you look at the schedule and think that nothing good's going to happen until 3:30, the morning always proves you wrong.

In the false hope department, Ole Miss trails Florida 21-9 midway thru the 4th quarter, though they've probably missed too many opportunities in the red zone already to even think they've got a real chance. In the holy crap department, Syracuse - earlier described as the worst BCS conference team in college football, which I would've stood by going into today - continues to do anything they want to Louisville, MTSU style, leading 31-21 in the 4th quarter and currently driving for more, which is stunning. Steve Kragthorpe is on the list of people I wouldn't want to be right now. I mean, Syracuse is terrible, especially on offense. And they're looking at the short end of 40 right now.

The 3:30 battle for my remote control will go to LSU and South Carolina, as long as the Cocks are in the game. If that gets ugly, I'll check on Michigan/Penn State and Notre Dame/Michigan State, but I'm also looking forward to Oklahoma State/Texas Tech for instant offense.

Bruce Pearl's orange-painted man chest keeps showing up, including in one of those Mike & Mike commercials on the pages of an ESPN The Magazine. We're one more loss away from Knoxville turning its attention to men's basketball. Seriously.

False hope indeed: Florida scores again. But at least they missed the extra point.

4:08 PM
Florida wins 30-24 over Ole Miss, which will make some Vol fans glad to see that the Gators appear vulnerable, but most continue to shake their heads that the team that beat the Vols by 39 struggled with the "worst team in the SEC" today, and the Gators didn't even play all that terribly.

South Carolina has first and goal against LSU in the first quarter, and absolutely has to score a touchdown. If the Cocks can keep it close and be in it late, that's all Spurrier wants...and they do score on second down with a toss sweep. 7-0 Carolina on a 13 play drive, including a key 3rd and 16 conversion and a helpful 15 yard facemask penalty. Impressive, though it's still too early to tell if Carolina can go step for step with what everyone assumes is a far superior LSU team. We'll see.

We're two for two on upset picks this week already, getting Miami over A&M (don't go back and read the unconvincing reasons why from Thursday), and then Virginia at home over Georgia Tech earlier today.

Hey look, a new Peyton Manning commercial. That means I'll be buying a Sony HDTV soon.

And oh man, the music of Nirvana on the Cold Case season premier? It's going to be a good year. (Seriously) The Office comes back Thursday, so all is well.

Notre Dame scored a touchdown, though I'm waiting for verification that it was of the offensive variety in a 7-7 ballgame with the Spartans. Michigan leads early as well, and if they do beat Penn State, I'll still say that anyone who votes for a team that lost to a FCS team and lost by 32 at home to Oregon should have their privileges revoked. Again, we'll see.

4:18 PM
And one quick note: I want to take Trindon Holliday home with me, put him in my room and raise him as my own. Giving new meaning to the phrase "midget football", the 5'5" Holliday just went one up on West Virginia's Devine, going about 50 yards in two plays thru the South Carolina defense like a jackrabbit. What's really funny about this is that when the LSU players come up to congratulate him after both runs, they almost knock him over because he's so wee. 7-7, and Gary Danielson - who was really great last year, and I'll give him a pass last week because the Vols were getting smoked - says "South Carolina's still in the game." You think so, in a tie game in the first quarter, really?

5:18 PM
Halftime at all the 3:30s, except in Stillwater, where it's been as advertised - 28-28 between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, with the Red Raiders looking for more on what'll be the last drive of the half. Fox Sports Net tells me that Texas Tech scores on 2/3 of its possessions. Those who'll call for Fulmer's job and scream for Mike Leach are sure to love that.

Now that the Gators have been tested, and since there's halftime all over the place, let's toss around the "will Florida lose twice?" question. For the uninformed, now that the Gators have beaten Tennessee, the Vols would need the Gators to lose twice against SEC foes in order to pass them in the SEC East standings. The Gators' win today makes them 2-0 in the SEC with six conference games to play...so you tell me, are there two losses in these six games?

FLORIDA'S REMAINING SEC SCHEDULE
09/29 - vs Auburn
10/06 - at LSU
10/13 - off week
10/20 - at Kentucky
10/27 - vs Georgia (at Jacksonville)
11/03 - vs Vanderbilt
11/10 - at South Carolina

Couple things here...the LSU game is a night affair, which is big advantage Tigers. The fact that LSU always self-destructs against Florida is, of course, big advantage Gators. Kentucky and Vanderbilt haven't beaten Florida in recent memory, Georgia has beaten them twice since the divisional format was instituted 15 years ago...but there's always Spurrier's Gamecocks. So again, it's a week by week contest, and as soon as Florida actually loses a game, you can use that "marathon not a sprint" analogy with more effectiveness. As for the Vols...they need to start winning.

Texas Tech used a fake spike and a terrible pass that was still caught to score at the end of the first half. Graham Harrell's first half numbers: 28 of 35, 388 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs. That's a nice day at the office, don't you think? Red Raiders lead 35-28 in a game that's currently scheduled to end around 8:00 PM.

The rains continue to fall in Baton Rouge, where the Ballcoach talked about pulling Blake Mitchell for Chris Smelley in the second half. South Carolina almost can't afford to give up any more points, even field goals, if they want a chance to win, currently trailing 21-7. And hey, with Hootie doing this week's Moment of Character, I'm sure the Gamecocks will be ready to roll in the second half. Hootie & The Blowfish are almost as good as Huey Lewis & The News. That's not a joke - Huey Lewis took my concert virginity.

Michigan's only TD drive came off a fumble in their 7-3 lead over Penn State, but the defense appears to play well when not faced with the spread offense (so there's hope for the Vols, eh?!) But Penn State just got a big stand on the opening drive of the second half, and Brad Nessler tells me Michigan has had 3rd and more than 10 six times already today. That's not how you win games.

Back to the television...

5:46 PM
All those - including me - who scream "run it up the middle" on third/fourth and short just got visual evidence why sometimes teams do spread it out: facing 3rd and 1, South Carolina tried Cory Boyd up the middle twice, and got absolutely stuffed by seven man fronts twice. Glenn Dorsey is a man.

We talked about it earlier, but let's not underestimate the importance of the 38-35 win Syracuse picked up at Louisville today. Bobby Petrino may not have Michael Vick, and may be trying to figure it out between Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich, but he's gotta be happier in the ATL than he'd be in the Bluegrass State right now, where the Cards have now lost two straight, will be out of the Top 25, and have given up around 40 a game the last three weeks. And for Syracuse, this is a huge win - ESPN.com tells me that their numbers at halftime for points and total yards were season highs, and maybe the Orange can take this one and spring for some Big East momentum in an attempt to move forward under Greg Robinson. Well done.

As LSU drives into field goal range, you begin to see once more that if you give up more than 21 points against this team, you're pretty much done. If you get behind more than one possession, you're on life support. If LSU doesn't beat themselves, I'm not sure who else will. Even when they're not spectacular, they're so brutally efficient on both sides of the ball - plus a fake FG for a touchdown in the first half that will probably have the word "backbreaking" attached to it in the postgame AP story - you simply have to make everything else go your way just to have a chance. See, there's a touchdown, it'll be 28-7 pending the PAT, and South Carolina is done. Brutal. Maybe Tulane will catch them looking ahead next week.

Michigan State is up 24-14 in the third quarter. It's smiles all around. And Maryland is looking to give me my first loss in the picks today, up 24-3 on Wake Forest in the third quarter. You'd hate to see a story like Jim Grobe and Wake be of the one year variety, but the two tough early losses plus the injury to Riley Skinner may be too much for the Deamon Deacs to overcome the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, Penn State's got first and goal at the end of the third quarter in a swift-moving ballgame, and still trails 7-3. A touchdown is a must. Maybe Russell Crowe isn't in attendance today - off fightin' round the world, I'm sure - so the Nittany Lions have a chance. 3:10 to Yuma is really good, by the way. And then here's another example of why it's stupid to call a toss sweep on 3rd and goal - not only does Penn State not get it, they get called for holding. Kicking field goals is not the way to win this one. Lloyd Carr did have an interesting call on the penalty - if you take the holding call, it's 3rd and goal at the 12. If you decline it, it's 4th and goal at the 2. Carr took 3rd and goal at the 12...and Penn State throws an incomplete pass that wouldn't have scored a TD even if he caught it. (sigh) So now it's 7-6, and Michigan still lives...

6:44 PM
The final look before the Vols go at 7:00...

Chris Smelley has played pretty well for a redshirt freshman, and credit South Carolina for not quitting, but Spurrier elected to kick a field goal with under eight to play, and now LSU leads 28-10. I doubt the potential TD would've made much difference. Michigan State leads Notre Dame 31-14 courtesy of 4 TD passes from Hoyer, and I wonder how many weeks we can talk about Notre Dame's struggles? They're just bad, period. The next four: at Purdue, at UCLA, vs Boston College, vs Southern Cal. Can you say 0-8?

Michigan is going to survive, and watching these players you feel like they're all reborn. Penn State simply had no offense, which was the question mark on their radar going in. That's nine straight wins for Michigan over Penn State, and I'm happy for Mike Hart, who is going down in the history books as one of the greatest RBs in Big 10 history. No matter what the obstacle, you can come back from anything, and winning always makes it better. Cue all the "Michigan for BCS" talk, but let me restate - if you vote for Michigan in either poll right now, you're an idiot.

Meanwhile, Arkansas was up 10-7 on Kentucky before I even remembered the game had started, and just as I typed that Felix Jones pulled out some 360 moves on the Kentucky defense in a 60+ yard run down inside the 10. And that fact about the Texas Tech offense having a tendency to disappear has come true - after scoring 35 in the first half, the Red Raiders got nothing in the 3rd quarter and now trail 42-35. The mascot for Okie State looks like he's going to show up on To Catch a Predator anyday now. And before I was finished with this update, the offense woke up - the Red Raiders score, and a WR named Amendola now has 14 catches for 233 yards (and his first touchdown), and Harrell is at 537 and 5 TDs. 42-42, 11:50 to play...good stuff.

For the Vols, it's time to see improvement, on both sides of the ball. Arkansas State can play, and the Vols need to respect that and bring the A game, lest we be sweating. Regardless, we're tired of excuses, and even if we can't make it all better until the Georgia game in two weeks, winning tonight would certainly help. Get it done.

7:15 PM
Opening drive, and you already feel better.

Ainge goes 3 of 3 on the drive, the Vols catch a nice break on the pass interference call, and you like Lucas Taylor more and more every time you see him. 7-0 after one drive, and now it's time for the defense to respond.

Meanwhile, Darren McFadden has 120 yards in the first half, plus Felix Jones' work, and the Razorbacks have built a 20-7 lead.

7:23 PM
Eight minutes later, and that didn't take long to come back to earth did it?

7-7, and Arkansas State made it look easy against the secondary. Add on the fact that we still regularly give the opposition the ball at the 35-40 on kick returns, and this isn't making anyone feel better. The defense has to stand up for itself. Period.

Texas Tech has gone back in front 45-42 in the 4th.

7:36 PM
That's what Tennessee teams used to do when they were at their best - make the other team pay for mistakes. So when Fulmer makes an aggressive nod in taking the field goal off the board, and then throws for the end zone on the next play, you like what you see. So again the offense does its job, and again the defense gets a chance to be accountable.

Arkansas leads 20-14 at halftime, and it should be much worse. Texas Tech had a wide receiver drop an open ball in the end zone on 4th down, and the Cowboys win it 49-45. That kid needs a hug.

8:10 PM
Things are rolling right along at 17-7 and driving, and then Ainge has his first incredibly bad play of the year...mine and Pat Ryan's best guess is that the defender was hidden behind Lennon Creer, who then stepped out on the ball intended for Luke Stocker and runs it back to the house. So now it feels like we're still stuck in neutral, 17-14, and Arkansas State certainly feels like they're in it. The defense has been okay since the opening drive. Are the Vols rotating tailbacks on every drive, running four deep with Foster, Coker, Hardesty and Creer?

Elsewhere, Georgia came up huge on their first drive to take a 7-0 lead, and Arkansas' settling for field goals has come back to haunt them, as Kentucky has come back with two TDs to lead 21-20.

8:46 PM
The defense and kick coverage giving up the field goal at the end of the half leaves a little worse taste in your mouth, but the Vols still lead by 14. The first half stats show that Erik Ainge is currently on pace to come close to breaking several Tennessee records tonight: Ainge is 19 of 30 for 272 yards with 3 TDs and the one pick. He completed passes to eight different receivers in the first half. The Vols picked up 349 yards of total offense to 184 for ASU, which is still too much for the defense to be giving up. And as long as the Indians are in the game, Ainge will probably keep throwing. Nice to see LaMarcus Coker make positive contributions, nice to see Brent Vinson use his 6'2" frame for good in the secondary, making a pick. Robert Ayers has stepped up big, and Nevin McKenzie has become a human missle on the corner blitz. The kick coverage continues to be mostly horrible. But it's 31-17. If this keeps up, the Vols will be fine. At least for tonight.

Georgia has been taking what they can get in a crowd-quieting 10-0 lead. Arkansas, I think, picked up a safety somewhere, and then had Felix Jones take a punt to the house, and suddenly it's the Pigs back in front 29-21. Currently, McFadden has 161 (6.4 per) and Jones has 133 (only 11.1 per), plus Jones' punt return. Man, I'm glad we don't play these guys til November.

And while the USC-Wazzou game is on the radar at a 7-7 tie, flying under the radar currently is Auburn 21 - New Mexico State 20 at halftime. See, it can always be worse.

9:33 PM
Tennessee gets another pick and another score, and now at 38-20 you're breathing easier. Hope Xavier Mitchell is okay from his cup check moment earlier tonight.

I'll tell you this - the third most impressive team in the SEC so far this year has been Kentucky. If LSU and Florida are at the top, Kentucky right now is the best team on the next level. When they went down 29-21, and the Pigs had been running wild, you thought they were dead. When they scored but missed the 2 point conversion to make it 29-27 Arkansas, you thought they were dead. Instead, UK finishes the game on a 21-0 run in the last eleven minutes of the game. And so despite giving up over 300 yards rushing, the Cats get the win. Arkansas can't do anything but run, and now you've given up over 40 the last two weeks. Once again - it can always be worse.

And October 6 is shaping up to be a monumental weekend in the SEC. In conference, there's nothing really big going on next week, relatively speaking - Auburn at Florida, Ole Miss at Georgia, Miss. State at Carolina. But the following weekend, there are three critical games - Kentucky at South Carolina on Thursday night, then the Vols and Georgia in a survivor game on Saturday afternoon, followed by the potential game of the year in Death Valley between the Gators and LSU Tigers. UK plays Florida Atlantic next week, then plays South Carolina, LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks. So there will crtainly be plenty of chances to prove they're worth it.

And if the Vols don't start tackling better, good grief...

10:35 PM
Tennessee wins 48-27 in a game that, as predicted, is going to make you feel better in the way that winning does, but nothing so much to make you feel super great about things as a whole. Those answers can come in two weeks, and an off week inbetween will be/should be great for an ailing defense that can't seem to make a tackle, but is getting close to finding the best 11 players to put on the field. The more playing time a guy like DeAngelo Willingham gets, the better he's going to get. So the defense can still improve.

The Vols win the total offense battle tonight 527-377, with Ainge going for a career high in yards at 27 of 39, 334 and 4 TDs (with the one pick). The Vols got 183 on the ground, including 104 on only 15 carries from a welcome sight in LaMarcus Coker, and another 49 from Arian Foster. Bob Kesling tells me that Daniel Lincoln's 8 for 8 start is the best in Tennessee history.

ASU's Reggie Arnold made the Vols hurt with 130 yards only 16 carries. When you look at the numbers as a whole, it helps put everything in perspective:

TENNESSEE vs. OPPONENTS TOTAL YARDAGE 2007
at CALIFORNIA (L 45-31)
Tennessee 382 (271 pass - 111 rush)
California 471 (241 pass - 230 rush)

vs SOUTHERN MISS (W 39-19)
Tennessee 469 (276 pass - 193 rush)
Southern Miss 354 (264 pass - 90 rush)

at FLORIDA (L 59-20)
Tennessee 298 (261 pass - 37 rush)
Florida 554 (299 pass - 255 rush)

vs ARKANSAS STATE (W 48-27)
Tennessee 523 (340 pass - 183 rush)
Arkansas State 377 (200 pass - 177 rush)

Tennessee Average to date: 418 (287 pass - 131 rush) - 34.5 PPG
Opponent Average to date: 439 (251 pass - 188 rush) - 37.5 PPG allowed

So yeah, there's room to improve. One of the questions as we go along will be how much of an exception or a rule the Cal and Florida performances were. Georgia's currently trying to hold off Alabama in the 4th quarter and hosts Ole Miss next week while the Vols are off, but they've got an offense capable of putting up points, and a defense that'll be better than what the Vols saw tonight and probably better than everything the Vols have seen except Florida, and maybe even better than them. It's 20-13 in Tuscaloosa right now, and the Dawgs have looked good.

For now, we'll take the W. From here, the Vols have to use the off week to simply get better. We'll talk about Georgia after they deal with the Tide and the Rebels. But for tonight, even if it's just a little bit, winning makes it better.

11:15 PM
SEC Football is great.

Georgia misses a 48 yard field goal after Alabama drives 80 yards to tie it, and we're off to overtime in Tuscaloosa. And these are two teams who are living and dying out there, and both want and need this game badly. Good, good stuff.

11:21 PM
And they're crying in Alabama. Literally.

After the Tide are held to a three and out field goal on their first OT possession, Georgia takes a play out of Tennessee's playbook and went for the throat on the opening OT play, and Matt Stafford went right to Mikey Henderson for a touchdown, and the ballgame. The Bama DB never saw the football. Richt credits OC Mike Bobo for the call...so now, after four weeks of football, we're down to three undefeated SEC teams, and one of them is Kentucky. Unreal.

So Nick Saban goes -1 on the divinity scale, and Mark Richt shows some of that old savior magic. It's a good thing these two schools, like the Vols and LSU, don't play each other every year, because it would be too violent.

And to cap off the day, we've got Ric Flair saying "Gentlemen, start your engines, WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!" from some race to open SportsCenter. Life is good.

So you're saying there's a chance...

As soon as I go any further than the "just the facts" version the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and others have been saying, this will all probably go away anyway. And it's still quite the longshot. But what the hey.

The Atlanta Braves fell 8.5 back in the NL East two weeks ago, and all hope for saving the season and making the playoffs turned to the wild card. Since then, Atlanta has won six of seven and five in a row. Jo-Jo Reyes got his first win of the season. Last night, Jeff Bennett struck out eight and won in his first career start. The Braves are as close to fully healthy as they've been all year, and they've been playing really well on this win streak.

However, the only team that's been hotter than the Braves the last two weeks has been San Diego, who's won seven in a row. And that's a problem, because the Padres are the wild card leader. So the Braves this morning, despite the hot streak, find themselves 5.5 out of the wild card with only 9 to play, and still have Philadelphia and Colorado between them and San Diego. The wild card is about to become an impossibility. And so it looked like this late season surge was only going to be used as mythical motivation for 2008.

Then the Mets started losing.

Since taking 2 of 3 from the Braves last week, the Mets are 1-6. And while their division lead has fallen to only 1.5 games over the Phillies...the Braves are now closer to the NL East lead than the wild card. With 9 games to play, Atlanta is 4.5 games back of the Mets. Which is still a ton of ground to makeup, and normally you'd write them off...but as the Braves keep winning, and the Mets keep losing...

And the other good part is, with the wild card you have to scoreboard watch three different teams and hope the Padres, Phillies and Rockies all lose each night to makeup ground. Then you'd have to start hoping the D-Backs lose if the Padres pass them. There's too much traffic.

But with the NL East, you only need the Mets to keep losing, and here's why: the Braves are in Philadelphia next week for three games. And three games is currently all that separates those two teams. If this keeps up, the Braves will have their own opportunity to knock the Phillies out of the race. So you only need one team to keep winning, and one team to keep losing.

Look, yeah, you need a lot of work and a lot of things to go right. Any Braves loss in their next nine games would be devastating, and asking a team to win 14 straight to make the playoffs is a bit out of the ordinary. And the Mets don't even play difficult competition between now and the end of the year: they've got three more in Florida this weekend, then a seven game homestand to finish the year against Washington, one rain makeup with St. Louis, and then Florida again. Meanwhile, the Braves have to continue to makeup ground against contenders, with three more against Milwaukee this weekend, then a midweeker at Philly before finishing the year with three at Houston. So of course, it doesn't look good.

But at least, from the Braves perspective, you've won five straight, and now you're back at the top of the rotation and will send Tim Hudson up tonight, and John Smoltz tomorrow afternoon. And all the Braves can do is keep winning and let the rest sort itself out. So it's still quite improbable...but we're not quite at impossible yet. And at least you can see this weekend's games all on national TV, going ESPN tonight, Fox on Saturday, and the Turner Field TBS finale on Sunday. And again, at least they're more relevant than last year. Every day they're still alive is a good thing.

College Football Picks - September 22

Last Week: 13-7
This Season: 40-13

Thursday, September 20
Miami vs. #20 Texas A&M - 7:45 PM - ESPN
I'll tell you right away, I came here wanting to pick against A&M and now I'm looking for reasons to justify it. I don't like Fran, the Aggies never upset anyone when you need them to and typically lose all big games anyway (sans Texas 06), and anyone who thinks they've been any good under the Fran Administration need only go back and watch bowl games against Tennessee and California.

Having covered all that, Miami is a shaky pick against anybody right now. Aside from the 51-13 spanking in Norman that everybody saw, the Canes did beat Marshall 31-3, and beat Florida International, fisticuffs not included, 23-9. See, you're just really "eh" about this team right now, and may be all year. Kyle Wright returned with the ones on offense, and had a decent day (17 of 33, 289 yards and 2 TDs), but FIU now has the longest losing streak in FBS (it'll stick, I promise), so that's not overly encouraging.

They're Miami...they've got athletes, they can line it up and run, they've got speed on defense. So does Tennessee, and both have been torched this year by good teams. So back to the Aggies...are they a good team?

The triple overtime encounter with Fresno State makes you want to think not. They've rolled lesser opponents inbetween, 38-7 over Montana State, 52-14 over Louisiana-Monroe last week. And they've got talent, with Stephen McGee and Jorvorskie Lane. Their experienced players beat Texas and had Oklahoma in 2006. They're supposedly the next biggest threat in the Big 12 after those two. It's the logical choice, right?

Well, if I can't find a reason on the stat sheet, trust me, I can find it someone else. How about Randy Shannon's first big home game? No hostile crowds in Miami? How about the athletic Miami defense? No, we already covered that one with Oklahoma? How about...well screw it, how about just because I want to pick against them. This is where I type "I've got a feeling about this one", and that instantly makes it alright.
Miami 23 - Texas A&M 20

Saturday, September 22
#5 West Virginia vs. East Carolina - 12:00 PM - ESPN
East Carolina held their own against C-USA favorite Southern Miss last week, but came up short 28-21. QB Pat Pinkney continues to be impressive and will become one of the conference's best quarterbacks, but right now East Carolina simply has no running game. And even against West Virginia, that's going to create big problems. The Mountaineers looked even more dangerous last week against Maryland, as the 2007 version of this offense appears to be even better, though the fact that you haven't seen them against a great defense yet is a bit of the catch 22. ECU has a decent defense, but WVA makes even the best defenses grab air more often than not. Mountaineers keep rolling, as long as they show up ready to play.
West Virginia 34 - East Carolina 20

#23 South Florida vs. North Carolina - 12:00 PM - ESPN2
The Bulls - cue Chris Farley - had the week off after the biggest win in program history at Auburn, while UNC got another dose of reality, getting too far behind and utimately losing to the field goal kicking machine that is Virginia, 22-20, at home. And so while better days are probably still ahead for the Tar Heels, USF is a right-now story that still appears to have a legitimate shot at competing for the Big East title and thus the BCS. If the Bulls choke here, they'll just be another upset story in a year that's been full of them thus far. If they want to prove that they're a legitimately good team, they need to win games like this one. And I think they will. Barely, against an on-the-rise UNC team.
South Florida 27 - North Carolina 24

Virginia vs. Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM - ESPNU
Alright, now it's time to engage in the dangerous art of flip-flopping. After picking the Cavs to be the cinderella story of the year in the preseason, then watching them get embarassed at Wyoming in the opener, they found a way to get it done last week via their kicker to beat North Carolina on the road, after I picked against them. So now, returning home to face a Georgia Tech team that was exposed last week, at home, as a unit that's done nothing but beat Notre Dame like everyone else in the free world...and to face a Georgia Tech team that may be without Tashard Choice...Virginia still has talent, and have played both Lalich and Sewell at QB at times. If they can manage the QB position with some degree of efficiency, they've got a shot. And there's little about Georgia Tech - see the performance under the national spotlight at Clemson last year - that makes you want to pick them on the road, or that makes you firmly believe they'll do a solid bounce -back after a deflating home loss to Boston College. It's the nervous home upset special...and when UVA loses, I'll be unstable enough to pick against them next week (vs. Pitt), and end up being wrong again, and so on and so forth for the forseeable future...
Virginia 20 - Georgia Tech 17

NC State vs. #15 Clemson - 12:00 PM - LF Sports (ACC)
Well, the best thing you can say about NC State so far this year is that they beat Wofford last week. Then you realize that Wofford ran for 211 yards against the Wolfpack defense, and that spells huge trouble when facing Davis and Spiller - even though they haven't been burning it up so far. Clemson can be shaky on the road, but there's really nothing about this one that makes you want to pick NC State. Which sounds a lot like what I said about Iowa State last week, but still...
Clemson 27 - NC State 14

Ole Miss vs. #3 Florida - 12:30 PM - LF Sports (SEC)
For the first time in my lifetime, the unquestionably worst team in the SEC isn't Vanderbilt or Kentucky. And since Sly Croom's boys from Starkville just beat Auburn at Auburn, congratulations Ed Orgeron, you're - at least right now - officially the worst coach on the worst team in the SEC. And one week after getting beat by two touchdowns by the Dores, you get to play Florida. Congratulations. Here comes ugly. Then I typed the predicted score down there and once again was reminded how bad you have to beat someone to do so by 39 points.
Florida 42 - Ole Miss 13

#2 LSU vs. #12 South Carolina - 3:30 PM - CBS
Two best defenses in the SEC. South Carolina is ranked #12 because a ton of teams in front of them lost last week, and - as Spurrier joked - no one's seen them play except against Georgia. So no one saw Blake Mitchell throw 3 INTs against South Carolina State last week.

Carolina isn't the 12th best team in the country right now, but they are good - Cory Boyd is solid, and needed only 11 carries to get 132 yards last week. And the defense, as mentioned, is very good - they haven't given up a touchdown since the opener. To beat LSU, they'll have to be near-perfect, keep them out of the end zone as much as possible as they did to Georgia, and keep making/getting the same sort of breaks that allowed them to beat the Dawgs. The hostile environment will be a non-factor - it's not at night, and they just won in Athens. What will be a factor is LSU's talent - how is South Carolina going to score on this defense? Even if LSU's offense struggles against the Carolina defense - and I don't see how it's that much better than Virginia Tech's - and even if this doesn't turn into a blowout, it's just really hard to go with Carolina here. I think, under Spurrier, the Cocks are in it in the 4th quarter. But LSU is ulti mately too much, and one way or another they'll find a way, which is the mark of championship teams. If that's what LSU is going to ultimately become, I want to see them win a close game. So maybe they'll win in another blowout. But if it's close late, I still think this team has that x-factor to pull it off.
LSU 17 - South Carolina 14

Michigan vs. #10 Penn State - 3:30 PM - ABC
The psyche of Michigan is still going to work against them here: they're feeling much better about life because they destroyed Notre Dame. Problem is, Notre Dame is terrible. And Penn State is not. Now, that whole "still undefeated in the Big 10" thing is going to go right out the window, and even if it doesn't feel like it, if Michigan loses this one at home, it'll be the most damaging of them all.

If Michigan is actually any good, you'll find out this week. Penn State isn't the most explosive offense in the world, but they're certainly better than Notre Dame, and if the hole in Big Blue's defense are still out there, Penn State will exploit them. Meanwhile, again, the true test is this week - so you'll find out if Michigan's offense more closesly resembles the 7 points against Oregon, or the 38 points last week. Penn State's defense will be better than anything Michigan has seen so far this year.

If Lloyd Carr has any hope at all in Ann Arbor, he has to win this one. Period, the end. Mike Hart is going to get his yards, though he'll really earn them this week. And this is a big opportunity for Anthony Morelli and friends, for a Penn State team that's been talking National Championship since the Outback Bowl, and Kirk Herbstreit has in his top five.

The bottom line for me is, you can't logically pick Michigan yet. It's not that they're not talented...maybe...but you just can't do it yet. Notre Dame is nothing. Based on Appy State and Oregon, you can't pick them to beat a top ten team, even at home, because it's all been at home thus far. If the Wolverines win this week, they'll be back in the conversation, and I'll feel free to pick them against anyone. But right now, I just can't make it make sense in any way. Michigan hasn't earned the right to be picked. So it's the Nittany Lions on the road, continuing towards that dark horse National Championship dream.
Penn State 27 - Michigan 21

Notre Dame vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM - NBC
Same argument with Notre Dame - how can you pick them against anybody at this point? Michigan State may not be a worldbeater, but they're 3-0 under Mark Dantonio and did what needed to be done to get a 17-13 win over Pitt last week. They're on the road for the first time here, and Notre Dame has certainly gotten the better of them before...but Michigan State is going to try and control the clock, pound the ball, and their defense would be good enough to win even if Notre Dame's offense wasn't totally nonexistent. I'm not saying Notre Dame is going 0-12, but Michigan State qualifies as a team that, right now, you can't with any real logic pick the Irish against right now.
Michigan State 21 - Notre Dame 10

Wake Forest vs. Maryland - 3:30 PM - ESPNU
The toughest task for Jim Grobe comes in this part of the season, as Wake Forest hasn't been able to make the breaks that enabled them to win the ACC last year in a dream season. The current reality is that they're 1-2, though they've lost to good teams in Boston College and Nebraska and both games were close. So this is still a good football team, and if BC slips up they can still win the division. Their schedule is once again kind - of their nine remaining games, only one is against a team that's currently in the Top 25 (at Clemson), and that's not until November 10. So if the Demon Deacons can pull it together, they can get rolling again very quickly. The sleepy 21-10 win over Army, with offense, defense, and special teams each scoring a touchdown (which is bad news if your offense scores one touchdown against Army's defense), can be forgiven as a letdown sandwich game if the Deacons win this week.

Maryland is decent with a chance to become good, and they won't be chasing West Virginia's speed around this week, so I think everyone is expecting this to be a good ballgame. As long as Brett Hodges is playing QB for Wake, he has to not get them beat and let the running game and the defense try and win it. I think Wake still has enough going for it to pick up a tough home win here, and get their season back on what should end up being a very successful track. It's a dangerous game, but they're not defending ACC Champions for nothing. They'll find a way this week.
Wake Forest 23 - Maryland 17

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech - 3:30 PM - Fox Sports Net
Two teams in two very different places right now. Oklahoma State couldn't pull the upset in Athens, then saw QB Bobby Reid get banged up in the second game, a 42-6 washout of Florida Atlantic. But last week against Troy, with Zac Robinson leading the way at QB, the Cowboys lost and lost big, 41-23. So while it's not Redi nor Robinson's fault for the defense giving up 41 to Troy - including 371 in the air - you've got QB controversy + shoddy defense + unhappy fanbase + Texas Tech = big trouble. Even the home crowd may not help them here.

Texas Tech has been doing what Texas Tech does: 49-9 at SMU, 45-31 vs. UTEP, 59-24 at Rice. The Graham Harrell for Heisman Watch: 3 games, 1317 yards (439 YPG avg), 14 TDs to 2 INTs. Granted, Texas Tech's offense has had a bad habit of disappearing in some games over the last two years, but I really don't see this being one of them. The Red Raiders won't be underdogs until October 13 (Texas A&M in Lubbock), and have a chance to once again be in the Top 25 late into the year with a real shot to win the division. The train may not go that far, but I doubt it slows down this week, even on the road against a team with some talent but too many problems at this moment. No matter who plays quarterback, you should see offense on both sides, but ultimately Texas Tech wins it. The most exciting of the 3:30 games.
Texas Tech 31 - Oklahoma State 30

Central Florida vs. Memphis - 3:30 PM - ESPN GamePlan
So far, UCF has won at NC State and had Texas right where they wanted them in Orlando before losing by three points. So far, Memphis has lost to the worst team in the SEC, and beat Jacksonville State. Not looking good for Tiger High.
Central Florida 31 - Memphis 17

#6 California vs. Arizona - 6:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
If Cal hasn't learned its lesson about not looking ahead by now, they never will. So let's put aside the big trip to Eugene next week, and deal with the Wildcats. Hey, remember the 90s? When Arizona was good enough at football for Keanu Reeves to mention it in Speed? When Ortege Jenkins and Trung Candidate ran the deadliest offensive attack on NCAA 2000 on your PSOne in the dorm room? And then in real life they played Penn State in the 99 season opener, got absolutely wrecked and were never heard from again?

Eight years later, they're 1-2 with losses to BYU and New Mexico. And sure, BYU and New Mexico aren't terrible, but the fact that we're having to use that sentence means that nothing good is happening for Mike Stoops, who needs more than the happenstance big upset every now and then. They've got Willie Tuitama, who did throw for 446 last week in the loss. But methinks they've got no defensive answers for Cal's offense. Justin Forsett has continued to impress all year, and should pickup big yards again here. Cal, I hope, has learned its lesson, and we'll deal with Oregon next week after they continue to make life miserable for Arizona. Man, Speed was a good movie.
California 38 - Arizona 17

Arkansas vs. #21 Kentucky - 6:00 PM - ESPN2
Beating Arkansas on the road will be more impressive than beating Louisville at home. Kentucky got the big program defining victory, the next step is to go on the road in the SEC and win on a consistent basis.

And Arkansas is hard to read. Anybody who had the over last week with the Pigs and the Tide is much brighter than me, because I didn't see 41-38 coming, nor did I see Arkansas coming back from two 21-point holes to take the lead in the 4th quarter in the plans. And we'll talk about what Alabama did a couple paragraphs down...but where are the Pigs right now? The defense has to be alarmed - Alabama wasn't and isn't believed to be one of the best offenses around, but they walked all over the Razorback defense and came within four yards from Terry Grant of having the 300 yard passer/100 yard rusher day that all SEC teams dream of in conference competition.

And of course, that's the beauty and the curse of Arkansas' offense: Casey Dick was 11 of 23, 145 yards, and the Pigs still scored 38 points and almost won. Darren McFadden and Felix Jones make you feel like you've got to score every time you have the ball just to keep up, and that's about right - McFadden led the way with 195 last week on 33 carries.

Kentucky is a team that can score every time they touch it, and I think this'll be a really good matchup. Both defenses have big holes that can be exploited, and you can bet the farm that the Pigs are going to do everything they can to never have to throw a pass, and keep UK's playmakers on the bench. The Cats may still be thinking about last week...but then again, so may Arkansas. So I think the team that jumps ahead first has a huge advantage in this one. You can split hairs with this one all day, and ultimately if you like running and smashmouth football, you're picking Arkansas, and if you like passing and athleticism you're picking Kentucky. Since I lean towards the first one more and more these days so I can use the words "old school" correctly, we're going with Arkansas here...and seriously, Arkansas is too good and Kentucky too inexperienced at winning for UK to walk in and win this one on the road.& amp; nbsp; And as stated, if the Cats do get the win I'll be much more impressed than I was last week. But I don't think so - not this time. UK will get somebody else in the SEC before they're done, but not Saturday.
Arkansas 30 - Kentucky 28

Tennessee vs. Arkansas State - 7:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
Odds are you know about Tennessee, so let's talk about Arkansas State. The Indians, un-PC or no, took Texas to the limit 21-13 in a game where they outgained the Longhorns 397-340. Then they took a week off, came back, and destroyed SMU 45-28. In that one, QB Corey Leonard was 22 of 34, 266 with 2 TDs and a pick, and RB Reggie Arnold went for 156 on only 19 carries. So they've got some offensive weapons...

Which is just what a Tennessee defense that's currently giving up 40 points per game wants to hear. They may not be Cal or Florida, but at this point everyone is a threat. Jarrod Parrish will return to the bench this week, with Eric Berry returning to SS and one of several possibilities emerging at corner with Marsalous Johnson, which will be one of the juco transfers, or maybe even Brent Vinson. And while you may not feel better about the whole no matter what the final score, you'd like to see improvement that can carry over into the off week and then carry forward to the SEC grind.

Tennessee still has issues finishing drives, and no matter what anyone tells you, the single greatest factor in the 2005 team's downfall was an inability to make things happen inside the opponent's 35 yard line, combined with a propensity for turning the ball over or doing something stupid on special teams inside our own 35. You can look for reasons all you want, but if the execution isn't there, especially in scoring range, you're going to lose more than you win. We've already done plenty stupid on special teams this year, Daniel Lincoln and his perfect streak aside. Tennessee can't afford to be good to anybody, including ASU, while the offense continues to try and find itself (and oh, how I hate using that language to describe our offense yet again).

Really, whether it's Arian Foster or Erik Ainge and the unsung WRs, the Vols should have enough to win this game. You may or may not buy into the "only bad things can happen in a game like this" philosophy, and sure, if it's close or we lose - no qualifier needed right now - then we're in more trouble. I want to see progress on both sides of the ball, and I'd love to see the wide receivers continue to develop. The offense needs to finish, and the defense needs to start. No better place to get going with those two things than at home against the Sun Belt. Arkansas State will be game, but ultimately too much Tennessee with a team that's still growing and won't write this one off.
Tennessee 30 - Arkansas State 20

#16 Alabama vs. #22 Georgia - 7:45 PM - ESPN
Don't look now, but if Georgia loses here, the Dawgs will be 2-6 in their last eight SEC games, and will have lost to Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina and Alabama during that span. The divinity of Mark Richt would certainly be in question. But not to worry, Nick Saban is ready to be elevated to the position Richt once held as the next big thing in the SEC. And it wouldn't be Saban's first time.

The win over Arkansas feels great because you pulled it off with :08 left and had offensive fireworks. Lost in the shuffle are both the defensive woes, even when you knew Arkansas was going to run it almost every play, and the fact that you blew two 21 point leads. So now, here comes Georgia, and it's going to be hard to keep this level up in Tuscaloosa - the new coach, the dramatic win, ESPN GameDay in town (and let me again say how disappointing it is to have GameDay, the flagship for college football in the media, be no more than the lapdog for ABC/ESPN these days - the marquee SEC and national matchup this week is LSU/South Carolina, and there was a time when GameDay went wherever the best game was, period. But now, you won't catch them anywhere except at an ABC/ESPN telecast - if they're in Baton Rouge when the Gators come calling in two weeks, I'd be stunned)...plus, the Tide has a "showdown" with Florida State next week in Jacksonville. There's a lot going on...can they maintain the level they need to beat Georgia?

This is a much bigger game for Georgia than Alabama. The Tide are unbeaten in the SEC, and losing a non-divisional game won't put them out of control of their own destiny. They'll have a chance to bounce right back next week, and Nick Saban is still waiting to say "It's a process" at a losing press conference. But Georiga is already one in the hole in the SEC East, and two will probably be way too much to overcome. It's a big game for Matthew Stafford, who needs to lead this team to a big win. And it'll be a chance for Knowshon Moreno to gash a weaker Alabama defense.

But right now, playing at home, I think Alabama's just got too much. The Tide have gotten hot a couple times this decade - 2002, 2005 - and put together streaks where they play like they simply can't lose. And I think it's too early for that to end. Georgia's good, but they're on the road and have been incredibly inconsistent the last year-plus. Tuscaloosa against a hot coach and an unbeaten team on the rise isn't the place for that to end. Should be exciting football, Bama pulls it out late again.
Alabama 27 - Georgia 24

#1 Southern Cal vs. Washington State - 8:00 PM - ABC
The Cougs have been flying under the radar since losing to Wisconsin in the opening week, but they've been pretty consistent all year - they lost 42-21 to the Badgers, then beat San Diego State 45-17 and Idaho 45-28. So you've got some defensive questions that USC is likely to exploit - they ran the ball much, much better against Nebraska than anyone was expecting - and you've got the fact that it's just USC, and they're really good. Wazzou has a chance, sure...but I don't think USC's going to be looking back now.
Southern Cal 30 - Washington State 10

#9 Wisconsin vs. Iowa - 8:00 PM - ABC
Iowa is in trouble, you might say. Once again, Iowa State jumped up and bit them when they had no business doing so. Albert Young only got 14 carries last week, Jake Christensen was average at best, and now they have to turn right around and go to Camp Randall. Wisconsin's defense has some holes that can be exploited, but will the Hawkeyes be ready to do so? If Iowa pulls the upset here, it'll make people have selective memory about last week, and like Michigan, they're unbeaten in Big 10 play going in. And yes, Wisconsin has been shaky. But playing at home here, Wisconsin is the smart pick until Iowa proves they're better than what they showed last week, no matter how inconsistent the Badgers can be. A big win for whoever gets it.
Wisconsin 23 - Iowa 20

Minnesota vs. Purdue - 9:00 PM - ESPN2
The Golden Gophers have lost to Bowling Green in OT, beat Miami (OH) in 3 OT, and then lost at Florida Atlantic (with 7 turnovers). Yikes. Meanwhile, this is a great chance to see Curtis Painter run the show at Purdue, where the Boilers are 3-0 and have only this one and mighty Notre Dame between them and a 5-0 date with Ohio State. Painter, doing his best Graham Harrell, has been going for 317 yards per game and 13 TDs, and is yet to throw a pick. And sure, the competition has been soft, but is Minnesota any better? As long as they're not looking ahead to the Irish - and who's doing that these days - Purdue rolls here.
Purdue 48 - Minnesota 23

Stanford vs. #13 Oregon - 10:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
Dangerous Pac-10 look ahead game #2. While Oregon is waiting for Cal to come calling, they travel to Palo Alto, where Stanford matched its win total from last year - 1 - by busting San Jose State 37-0 last week. Look out, Jim Harbaugh is on the prowl. However, the more telling game may have been the opener against UCLA, where the Bruins walked 45-17, the same team that was absolutely destroyed by Utah last week. Plain and simple, Stanford is at least a year away, and even though they may pull an upset before we're through, Oregon is too good for that right now.
Oregon 31 - Stanford 20

Arizona State vs. Oregon State - 10:00 PM - ESPN GamePlan
The Sun Devils haven't really been tested yet, including the 33-14 win over Colorado and two wins over the San States to get to 3-0. You had to like the "we're pissed and we're taking it out on you" performance from Oregon State last week, 61-10 over mighty Idaho State after the embarassing Thursday night performance at Cincy. Once again, not a conference loss, so it's still even money and this is a huge game for both teams to get off on the right foot in the Pac-10. Former Heisman candidate Yvenson Bernard, despite the big win, had another slow night, and that can't happen at Tempe if the Beavers have any chance. Rudy Carpenter has been effective but not great so far, but effective might be enough here to get ASU the win. Close toss up game, and ASU is untested...but I'll give the edge to the home team here. Yet another fun-to-watch game on paper.
Arizona State 31 - Oregon State 28

UNLV vs. Utah - 10:00 PM - The Mtn
Utah channeled Urban Meyer last week in a huge, dominant win over UCLA. Meanwhile, UNLV responded from their almost-upset over Wisconsin by scoring only 14 points against Hawaii, which was 35 points too short (another indicator of how bad the Gators beat us - 49-14 isn't as bad as 59-20). Anyway, enough of that...Utah is simply better, and even on the road in a game with two good coaching staffs, the Utes keep rolling. UNLV may have missed their chance for greatness this year.
Utah 30 - UNLV 21

UCLA vs. Washington - 10:15 PM - Fox Sports Net
"Do not pick UCLA in a big game" is the second most sacred rule of picking, after "Never pick Vanderbilt." So don't worry, we're doing UDub here. Seriously, how do you pick up the pieces after getting blasted 44-6 by Utah? Ben Olson may not play with a head issue, and even though Washington showed they're not there yet against Ohio State last week, it's still In Ty We Trust, and in a conference game here, Washington will be ready to go. Hopefully Jake Locker learned a thing or two last week, and won't throw 3 picks again. But it's all part of the process. Huskies send UCLA back to the drawing board.
Washington 20 - UCLA 14

Titans & Jeff Fisher agree to contract extension

Hooray for good news!

Jeff Fisher and the Tennessee Titans have agreed to a contract extension, reported to keep the NFL's longest tenured coach in Nashville thru 2011 to the tune of $5.5-6 million per year. And hey, no state income tax!

In my denomination, pastors are often moved around from place to place, and at least in the area I've served (North Georgia/East Tennessee/Southwest Virginia) it's very rare to find pastors who've been in the same place for 10+ years. Working this job has given me a new perspective on the coachspeak about needing time and building a process - when coaches today, on both the college and pro level, are terminated after two or three subpar seasons, it's not that it isn't always merited, it's just that I understand. And the Titans have been on that same roller coaster, going from new team in Nashville to annual Super Bowl contender to third pick in the NFL Draft, and now appear to be on their way back up. And it's rare that ownership, fan base, etc. have all come together to agree to let one person steer the ship the entire time. But Fisher has been that man, and though I don't have a real feel on the Titans fanbase as a whole not living in Nashville, this to me is very good news. And it would've been very good news even without Vince Young. Fisher gets the job done, period. You saw it yesterday...I hope you did anyway, because I sure didn't, not that the Carolina Panthers aren't exciting television...anyway, yesterday a team with significantly less star power than the defending Super Bowl Champions pushed them to the wire with, as best I could tell via Mike Keith, a lot of grit and determination. And even though they didn't get it done, you feel like now they can compete with everybody. And so you're eager about Monday Night, and it's not 100% Vince Young. Which is a great sign.

This is a good day for the Titans, but it's also a good day for head coaches everywhere. Jeff Fisher is one of the few and far between examples, on any level, of one guy being given the opportunity to see it through, and coming through on that opportunity. And so I for one am very appreciative, and very glad he's being rewarded for it.

So since the Vols are not in a good place right now, and I can actually see it on TV this week...is it Monday yet?

...oh wait, it is Monday. Alright, next Monday. Right.

The Worst Loss of My Lifetime

In 2002, Alabama came to Knoxville and broke a seven year winning streak with a 34-14 win. And standing there in Neyland Stadium, watching Alabama sing Rammer Jammer among the hoard of crimson shakers for the first time since 1994, I started having flashbacks. For some, maybe that was just another loss in a frustrating year. For me, it was like reliving a childhood nightmare that you'd worked really hard to repress. And I'd done a good job of it, so much so that in the seven years between, I'd forgotten what it was like to lose to Alabama, and to have to watch them celebrate.

Today, watching Florida run away, and over, and through, and anyway they wanted to against Tennessee in a 59-20 win, you started having flashbacks again. Back to the mid-90s, when Florida seemingly did anything they wanted to and always came away with the victory. Back to a time when Florida was one step ahead of the Vols.

And that's the way it was under Steve Spurrier, for five years between 1993-1997. No matter how good the Vols were (or weren't), it never mattered. Florida won, and in those years there weren't even any real nail-biters or 4th quarter heartbreaks. The Gators simply out-executed and out-did Tennessee every time. And it became tangible.

Since 1998, it's been an even playing field for the last nine years. In those games, Florida won five and the Vols won four, and each team had a double digit win in there, but every time you felt like, and saw, that the two teams were right there, and they almost always came down to the last few minutes.

Flash forward to today. And for the first time in a decade, we're not right there. For the first time in a decade, Florida is one step ahead. At least. Again.

The headline up there about the worst loss of my lifetime isn't a joke or some dramatization, and if you read here often you know it's definitely not negativity.

It's fact.

Today's loss wasn't the most heartbreaking, didn't cost us the most, and wasn't a blowout from start to finish. In fact, Eric Berry's interception return and the ensuing defensive stop gave the Vols the ball down 28-20 midway through the third quarter. So you feel like you had a chance. And much like last year, when the Vols ran for -11 yards, you feel like you were in the game because you really were, even though you maybe didn't have much business being there.

But regardless of anything else, the one stat that means more than anything start to finish - the scoreboard - reads Florida 59 - Tennessee 20. And while the Gators were scoring TDs on each of their final four drives, I started trying to think back to the last time it had been this bad.

When it got to a 32 point hole, that erased the 31-0 loss the Vols suffered to the Gators in 1994. Was it Florida in 95? Nope, that was 25 points. Surely Nebraska in the Orange Bowl? Nope, 25 again. Auburn the first go round in 2004? 24 points.

So I was still thinking when Florida scored again to make it 39 points, and I'm sure the CBS folks didn't run this graphic because it was either unfathomable, or they couldn't find it fast enough.

On September 5, 1981, Herschel Walker and Georgia beat Tennessee 44-0 in Athens. Five weeks later, I was born.

That makes today the worst loss I've ever seen Tennessee take. And it feels like Spurrier. And Urban Meyer made his point - he could've ran clock and won this thing 42-20. But he scored 17 more points because he could. And the point isn't that Meyer is a word of your choosing. The point is that they could.

Credit Florida, of course. They won it all last year by the skin of their teeth, and apparently they've had enough of that. We'll see how far they can take it this year. And it's my job as the most optimistic Vol fan I know to tell you that Tennessee, of course, can still win the SEC East...but we'll save the "will Florida lose twice?" question for another day when it seems more realistic to even ask.

Right now, it's going to be an uncomfortable 21 days to be Phillip Fulmer and John Chavis. Really, in the eyes of many, only negative can come against Arkansas State next week (who took Texas to the wire). Even if the Vols win 70-0, you're not going to really feel better about things unless/until they beat Georgia. And there's an off week between now and then.

I will say that this isn't the time to call for someone's head or job, though that day may come. Right now you've got to finish the season, and you've got to realize on the other side of the hangover that there's both a lot of football left to be played, and a lot still to play for. And then you've got to take a hard look at this team and figure out how we're going to improve. Which is a job for someone more qualified than me.

The worst loss of my lifetime is going to take some time to get over. And yeah, maybe Arkansas State will help. And so now we'll wait and watch, and see how this team and this staff responds. The work to be done is obvious, and the challenge ahead will never be free. So what will the Vols do now?

Tennessee/Florida Preview & Prediction

That which is always so highly anticipated has a different feel to it this year, as the Vols come into the showdown game with the Gators having already lost once. This marks only the second time Tennessee has lost in the September pre-Florida games (excluding 2001 when the game was moved to December post-9/11), the only other being the 1994 season opening loss to UCLA when Jerry Colquitt got hurt. The Gators have also only lost twice before playing the Vols, to Miami in 2002 and 2003.

The phrase that's being thrown around is "beating Florida will make it all better", and that's absolutely correct. If the Vols win Saturday afternoon, by one or one hundred, the average fan's outlook on 2007 will return to its optimistic roots, like the Cal game never even happened for many. However, if the Vols lose, the Cal loss becomes magnified because now you're 1-2. And even though the cold reality of the SEC is that the Vols could lose to Florida, beat Arkansas State, and then take an off week and enter the Georgia game on October 6 and 2-2, 0-1 in the SEC, they could leave October 6 ahead of Florida in the standings if the Gators were to fall to Auburn and LSU - and wow, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves, because the "who will Florida lose to?" talk is reserved for next week if things go south this one - but it'll be very hard for Vol fans to see the big picture, or that Tennessee would still be alive in the SEC East race, if the Vols lose to the Gators.

So yeah, it's important.

The interesting points of this year's contest, as I see them:

The Legacy of Erik Ainge
Let's play word association. If I say Peyton Manning, you'll tell me about the greatest player to ever wear the orange and white. If I say Heath Shuler, you'll tell me about the athleticism and raw talent. If I say Tony Robinson, you'll shake your head at what was in college what might've been in the pros (or at least your parents will).

Now, if I say Tee Martin, you'll instantly start telling me about the National Championship. If I say Andy Kelly, you'll tell me about back-to-back SEC Championships and an ability to win games. If I say Casey Clausen, you'll say something negative, and then I'll punch you in the face and tell you what a winner that kid was, how he made things happen, found a way to win (14-1 on the road, 2-0 in The Swamp), and is the most underrated and underappreciated Vol of my lifetime.

The first three, at a quick pass, are remembered for their incredible talent first and foremost. These are the guys, when Manning wins another Super Bowl or Shuler makes his way to Washington, you'll tell your kids that you saw play, and how incredible they were. The second three aren't remembered for their talent - which is true to the degree that none ever played well in the NFL - but they're even deeper in the Vol memory bank, you just don't realize it. You won't tell your kids you watched Andy Kelly play, but you will tell them about The Miracle at South Bend and the 4th quarter of the Sugar Bowl against Virginia. You won't tell your kids you watched Tee Martin, you'll tell them about the National Championship. And you won't tell your kids you saw Casey Clausen, but you will tell them about the night the Vols drained The Swamp in 2001. And those three guys were absolutely critical to all of those wins and championships - without them, they do not happen.

So Mike Keith comes on SportsTalk a couple weeks ago, and a caller asks if the Titans would look at Erik Ainge as a possible backup for Vince Young in next year's draft. And Keith responds by saying that he won't make it that far - somebody's going to draft Erik Ainge to be a starter. That Ainge reminded him of Phillip Rivers - no matter how successful or unsuccessful the college career ultimately ends up being, that's a guy from a good system with all the right physical tools, who could show up at the combine and go from being a first day pick to a first round pick. Where Andy Kelly and Casey Clausen didn't have the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, Erik Ainge does. That 6'5", 230 lbs laser-rocket arm thing? Ainge has that.

Ainge also has - to this point, and it's important to understand that his legacy won't be defined in total on Saturday, win or lose - but he's removed himself from 2005, with great distance inbetween. The vision of Ainge spinning round in Baton Rouge, and Ainge throwing strikes to unheralded wide receivers are two very different pictures, and right now it's the latter that'll be burned into your memory when he leaves.

So even if Tennessee finishes 2007 at 7-5, if Ainge goes to the NFL and then has some success there, he'll be remembered fondly and remembered well. Especially at the quarterback position, NFL success - which, for Tennessee, begins and ends with Peyton - bleeds through to the college fanbase. There are and have been a plethora of UT running backs and defensive players who've enjoyed success on Sundays. But you didn't really feel all the more good about things when Jamal Lewis won a Super Bowl, or when Cedrick Wilson got his. At quarterback, you're the face. Right now, Ainge is going to be remembered on talent, like Heath Shuler. And he may never play a meaningful down in the NFL.

But if Ainge can lead the Vols to victory on Saturday, and turn in an SEC Eastern Division title, he'll have a chance to be remembered deeper in the hearts of Vol faithful. I remember lots of great and wonderful things about Peyton, but none of them with the intensity that I can remember every single game from 1998. If I was older, I'd wager I'd say the same thing about Andy Kelly from 1989-90. Erik Ainge has a chance to write the legacy that Nebraska and Charles Woodson denied Peyton Manning (and it's unfair, but it's true - you remember Nebraska killing us and Woodson robbing us with greater intensity than you remember the SEC Championship Game against Auburn, don't tell me otherwise, and that plus Florida taints Manning's image in Knoxville as a winner, even though he, of course, unquestionably was one).

Erik Ainge has a chance to be an NFL quarterback who turned in a memorable championship performance on a team that you remember and treasure. The Vols teams that are truly treasured by this generation of fans are 1985, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1998. And what's happened is a progression, then a regression. Fans remember the 1990 season - where the Vols were 9-2-2 - more fondly than the 1989 season, where the Vols were 11-1 - because the 90 season ended in the Sugar Bowl. The 1995 season was the next step up the ladder, becase we finally beat Alabama and finished #2 in the nation in one poll. And of course, there's 1998. So years like 2001 get the shaft because they didn't end well (LSU), but also because there's a sense of dissatisfaction with things like a trip to Atlanta or the Capital One Bowl, because that was old news at the time. And the legacies of Clausen and Manning aren't remembered by 2001 and 1995, because they were both sophomores at the time and had two more years of memories to build. Andy Kelly is the man because he went out on top. And so now, not only does Ainge have a possible real NFL future in front of him...he's got a chance to go out on top, and be the "winner" in the eyes of the nation that Manning "never was" in college.

But to keep that chance, the Vols have to win on Saturday. And to do that, leaning heavily on Ainge may not be the best idea.

David Cutcliffe vs. Florida
This next statement isn't going to make you feel very good about tomorrow, but just stay with me here:

As the offensive coordinator at Tennessee, David Cutcliffe is 1-6 against Florida.

Now, why is that?

You may not remember this, and it's probably better if you don't, but the old philosophy for beating Florida was to outscore them. When you had Shuler and Manning, you tried to play to your supposed strengths, and so the Vols came out firing. And here's how that turned out under David Cutcliffe:

Cutcliffe Tennessee Offenses vs. Florida
1993: Florida 41 - Tennessee 34
1994: Florida 31 - Tennessee 0
1995: Florida 62 - Tennessee 37
1996: Florida 35 - Tennessee 29
1997: Florida 33 - Tennessee 20
1998: Tennessee 20 - Florida 17 (OT)
2006: Florida 21 - Tennessee 20

Let's throw 1994 out, when Todd Helton started at quarterback and the Gators were ranked #1. With some of the best offenses in school history, the Vols came out with their best punches and tried to knock Florida out. Problem was, Florida always took those punches, and then they hit back. Heath Shuler threw five touchdowns against Florida in 1993, and lost. The second-highest passing total in Tennessee history is 492 yards. Manning did that against Florida in 1996, and lost. In 96 and 97, Manning threw the ball 116 times, and lost twice.

The Vols won in 1998, in part, because they couldn't do the shootout option. Tee Martin couldn't run that offense yet, and so they had to control the ball and the clock. And they got a big play from Shawn Bryson, tough day at the office yards from Jamal Lewis, and kept Florida off the field as much as possible. If that team had tried to outscore Florida, we would've been murdered. And it ended up making all the difference. The problem this year is that the Vols feel like they can outscore Florida with Ainge and efficient receivers, and it's going to be tempting to try. But don't be fooled.

Now, you can look at the FireRonZook.com years, which we all enjoyed, and find some differences. But when Florida wielded a high-powered offense, as they did under Spurrier and as they (apparently) do this year, getting into a shootout hasn't worked. Ever. Didn't work at Cal too well either.

So, what's the solution here?

Run. The. Football.
You've heard the stat about the team that runs the football wins this game, and it's one of the more true statistics I know of with Tennessee Football. As stated, Cutcliffe never tried to run or run-first, and the Vols basically handed Florida the rushing advantage 93-97. The only real time that a team in this series ran the ball better and lost was 2000, where an AJ Suggs Tennessee team that had absolutely no business playing with Florida came within moments of beating them, when Travis Henry ran for 175 and the Vols lost by Jabar Gaffney's fingertips 27-23.

What you saw in 1998 repeated itself last year. On the one, the Vols dominated the Gators, forced them into negative rushing yards, and it didn't matter about the rest, that was enough to win. That turned into a National Championship for Tennessee. In 2006, the Gators forced Tennessee to negative rushing yards, and it didn't matter about Meachem, Swain, Smith and the rest, that was enough to win, and it turned into a National Championship for Florida.

This is an interesting moment to be Arian Foster. Here's a kid with obvious talent, whose very best moments went largely unseen in the second half of the disastrous 2005 season, and whose worst moments led to Penn State winning the Outback Bowl. He's looked very good in the first two games. But Florida is where you get remembered. Your whole career can make you good, as it has been for many Vol running backs. But Florida can make you famous.

And we've been here before. In 2003 and 2004, Cedric Houston had strong starts, and looked really good coming into the Florida game. And in both cases, I thought he was getting ready to bust out. And in both cases, for different reasons, he didn't. So now here's Foster, with a wealth of talent behind him much like Houston, who is currently the first (if not the feature) back on an offense that desperately needs to shy away from the pass and focus on running the football right down Florida's throat. Foster can lead the way, if the offense will let him.

There is absolutely no reason for Tennessee to lose the rushing battle in this game. Tennessee has at least three guys on their depth chart who would start for Florida at RB right now. And even if Florida goes for their yards via the spread option, if Arian Foster, Montario Hardesty, and LaMarcus Coker (plus Lennon Creer if he sees the field again) get outrushed by a bunch of wide receivers, a big white quarterback and a lot of trickery, there will be no excuses. The running battle is ours to win.

Avoid the shootout at all costs - remember, even in 2001 when the final score was 34-32, the Vols weren't trying to get in a shootout. It's just that Florida couldn't tackle Travis Stephens, and instead of that offense being ball control like the first drive of the game, it turned into highlight reel...and it kept Rex Grossman's offense in the game until the very end. Randy Sanders has coached Florida better than David Cutcliffe has. That needs to change. The Vols have the horses to execute a ball control, keep-away, smashmouth gameplan. And the Vols also have a quarterback who'll make it mighty tempting to do otherwise. But I don't know how to make it any more obvious, or use any more stats that back it up - run. Run. Run the football, win the game.

Which, in doing so, would answer another important question:

Just how good is Tennessee's offensive line?
Erik Ainge has been sacked once. The holes have been big enough for talented Vol backs to take advantage of them. So far, so very good.

When you looked at this line coming into the season, you were unsure at best, and you didn't see it being one of the great, dominant Vol offensive lines of recent memory. Losing Arron Sears was a big part of that blow, and not having that name guy like Sears or Michael Munoz for the first time this decade made it seem like the cupboard was bare. And while Cal and Southern Miss aren't the two best defenses in the world, neither is Florida based on what we've seen so far and the depth chart.

Josh McNeil, Anthony Parker, Ramon Foster, Eric Young and Steven Jones have gotten the job done thus far, as well as solid play from the second unit. And the Vols, on paper, won't face a really great defense until they play South Carolina, which is miles down the road. The questions surrounding Florida's defense are great. So not only does this line have a chance to be adequate, they have a chance to be a huge x-factor if they can come through.

There have been Tennessee lines in the past that have absolutely dominated Florida - they did it consecutively in 2000 and 2001. And there have been times when the line, and not shoddy lines, but really good Tennessee o-lines got absolutely dominated out of nowhere - remember Alex Brown? - or when you saw it coming like last year.

But the type of x-factor I'm talking about is this: in the 2004 Florida game, down 7-0, with Brent Schaeffer playing quarterback, the Vols ran the ball with Cedric Houston and Gerald Riggs on seven consecutive plays. No long runs, no highlight reels, just good old fashioned "here it comes" football. They got a first down every other play, then they scored a touchdown. One of those drives where you're sitting up in the stands and somebody goes "Man, great time for play action" and you go "No. Run it again. Run it again."

Can this offensive line come out and hit Florida's defense in the mouth on Saturday afternoon? Can Erik Ainge continue to stay clean? This part is absolutely critical to any Tennessee victory scenario.

Tennessee Defensive Questions
Let's start with what you're comfortable with. Short list, eh?

I still believe Jonathan Hefney's worst day is behind him, and Eric Berry's best days are still in front of him. The corners haven't been bad all year, and this sounds cold, but you take the "Andre Caldwell for Antonio Gaines" trade every time. Jerod Mayo and Rico McCoy are very talented and seem to be improving. It's still a John Chavis defense, so you have faith (or you should). And the Vols have seen these athletes and this offense, to a degree, already this year.

The absolute worst feeling in the world as a Tennessee fan is a Florida quarterback with time. If you're old enough, you probably still have nightmares about Danny Wuerfful standing in the pocket and picking our poison. Chris Leak, with time, was highly effective. So if tomorrow afternoon, you see either Tim Tebow standing around looking for targets, or Tim Tebow tucking and running...that's very bad. And after two weeks of football, there's not a whole lot I can say to make you really believe that you won't see some of both.

Does this defense have what it takes to turn into a game-changer tomorrow afternoon against a scoring machine offense? Or will it be enough to ask for just not getting us beat? The best and most realistic scenario I can see for Tennessee victory includes the aforementioned running and ball control, and a defense that is going to bend, but doesn't break enough to get us outscored. I'd love to be underestimating this defense, and who knows, maybe I am. We'll certainly find out. The players and the talent are there, the execution needs to follow.

Florida Defensive Questions
But at least we're not alone.

Now, you've got Derrick Harvey, who'll be trying to do his best Alex Brown. And the rest of the defense is fast and raw, but right now that's all you can say about them. You may be saying more after Saturday that none of us know about yet, and that's half the point, but right now the Vols can exploit these guys, both running and passing. Right now, Tennessee's defense is no worse than Florida's, and everyone needs to remember that. Could go out the window in five minutes on Saturday, but right now that's a true statement. And while that statement about talent and players being there for Florida as well is true, the experience is not. And the Vols need to take advantage.

So when you have two offenses capable of exploiting both defenses, this is where you lay on that "The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win" things. That means 3rd and short, and touchdowns not field goals, and especially special teams become even more critical for both teams. Can anybody kick deep for the Vols, and when they don't can anybody cover Florida's speed? Can Denarius Moore, Dennis Rogan or whomever be a weapon returning kicks? What about Britton Colquitt? And can Daniel Lincoln continue to be $$$? Special teams, more than anything else, got us beat in The Swamp in 2005. This time around, let's try not to put the special in...well, you get the idea.

The Tim Tebow Factor
Among my friends and Knoxville Vol fans there seems to be a lot of "Tebow's never been in a big game, Tebow will lose it for them down the stretch." And while I'd be overjoyed if that happened, I don't see the logic. And I'm sure that's a line that gets used a lot with this blog, but still. Not only has Tebow played in big games, he's been THE guy on big plays - 4th down against Tennesee in Neyland, jump pass against LSU, nail in the coffin against Ohio State. The kid has a ring from a game he scored a meaningful touchdown in, so I doubt he'll be rattled. Now, if he gets the ball with 2:00 to play and 80 yards and 4 points down in front of him, we'll see, but my hunch is he'd thrive on that.

What you'll really see here is the true merits of a true spread option against a good team. You can't call Tennessee a good defense right now, but we'll see. However, the Vols still certainly qualify as a good team. Remember, last year Florida's offense averaged only 22 points per game in their SEC regular season games. Now that they're running the spread option instead of just the spread, will it make a significant difference? I can see how some are picking Florida to score 40 on Saturday, but I'm not sure that's the most realistic outcome because you just don't know for sure about it yet. Against Meyer, the Vols have given up 16 and 21 points, and lost twice. But without the great defense, if Florida gets either of those two numbers tomorrow, you have to love our chances...

But that's not to say that Tebow can't control the game in his own right, the same way the Vols can/should try to do with their running game. Somebody wrote in the off-season that Tebow was a better Heisman candidate than quarterback, but Saturday he'll have a chance to marry the two. And really, we just don't know what he'll do with the entire offense at his disposal. But we're gonna find out...and it could be very good for the Gators. If Tebow turns in one of those self-destructive old school visor-throwing performances, I'd be stunned - the odds of him becoming a campus legend are much greater than the odds of him "losing the game".

Phillip Fulmer and Urban Meyer
Say something bad about Meyer, I dare you. I'll wait.

Won the National Championship in his second year, pulling off that second year magic like everyone said. Fun stat for Saturday: Meyer is undefeated in The Swamp. And yeah, the man can recruit. He's not even fun to hate.

Here's the thing about stats: like history, they're dictated by the winners. In Knoxville, you and I still believe that we own Alabama, because we've won 10 of 12. In Tuscaloosa, if the Tide and Nick Saban beat Tennessee this year, then those stats will become "split the last six, Nick Saban is 3-1 against Phillip Fulmer and 1-0 at Alabama" even though 10 of 13 will still be impressive in Knoxville.

So, if Florida wins, here's the stat you'll hear: Phillip Fulmer was 2-1 against Ron Zook, but 3-7 against Steve Spurrier and 0-3 against Urban Meyer at Florida. The Gators have won 11 of 15 (and in Knoxville, we'll say "but it's only 4-3 over the last seven!").

Then they'll say that Fulmer can't deal with the new breed of SEC coaches - that Mark Richt, Nick Saban, and Urban Meyer are the new school and Fulmer can't hang with them. And that'll become a very real issue as the season wears on, you watch.

But for now, we're still dealing with just Florida. Thank God.

Final Thoughts
So, all that to say this...

Erik Ainge can lead this team to victory, but the Vols would be better off not leaning on him. Tennessee can control the clock and the game if they can run efficiently, which they should be able to do. We didn't even talk about the wide receivers, because they're not good enough (yet) to be difference makers, but they're not bad enough (so far) to be liabilities. The offensive line can dominate.

The defense has to step up. If we're reading Sunday morning about how we were gashed and gave up 500 yards of total offense, it's going to be a long year. Florida is going to score points...but I also do not believe that it has to be 35+ points. Everyone's picking a score in the 30s...but I don't see that. I think there will be enough mistakes on both sides to keep this thing in the under. If asked to win the game in the 4th quarter, can the defense pull it off? Which defense is going to show up? Which quarterback is going to play better?

And let's understand something too: Tennessee could win this game by three touchdowns. I'm not saying they will by any means. But let's not all buy into this "we're screwed" mentality at the cost of seeing how good our offense could be, how big the holes and light the experience on the other side of the ball for Florida, and simply knowing that we're fully capable of going down there and getting the W.

And sure, Florida could win this thing by three touchdowns too. That's the beauty of this rivalry, and why you'll probably, once again, be sweating and shaking profusely in the 4th quarter.

I think Tennessee controls the game. I think Ainge makes the smart plays and decisions at critical times to get points. I think the defense plays better than they did at Cal. I think Florida gets their points and trades blows with the Vols. But I think the experience of Tennessee on both sides and the strength up front on the offensive line make all the difference. Absolutely, this game could go either way. But the Vols have the experience where Florida has none on defense to play for and make the breaks, and when one comes our way score. Tennessee can win. But screw that. Tennessee should win.

Believe.

Will's Pick: Tennessee 27 - Florida 24