And I read both of them today. It's that time of year.
For the college flavor, check out Wright Thompson's ESPN.com piece - aptly subtitled "A Love Letter to Southern Football" - that deals with the anticipation leading up to this very moment, the cusp of a new football season.
For NFL variety, Peter King's article from this week's Sports Illustrated, featuring the NFL Preview, Peyton Manning on the cover for the 9th time (don't get excited - the next time Michael Jordan is on the cover, it'll be #50), and a player rating system that ranks Manning as the single best player in the NFL. But you knew that already.
However, the interview between King and Manning really turns into simply Manning shooting straight for the bulk of the entire piece. It's exceptional, and lucky for you, you don't even have to be a subscriber.
Friday, August 31, 2007
The time is now.
The most exciting sports weekend in recent memory unfolds over the next four days...
For the Braves
While Atlanta was taking two of three from the Marlins, they got some bigtime help from the Fightin' Phillies, who swept a four game set with the division leading Mets. With 28 games to play, the last real sense of Atlanta controlling its own destiny will unfold over the next two weeks, but specifically in the next six days - the Braves begin a weekend series with the Mets tonight at Turner Field, then welcome the Phillies to Atlanta for three more starting Monday.
The Braves are 4.5 out in the NL East, with the Mets in the lead and the Phillies just two back. The Braves are also 4.5 out in the NL Wild Card, with the Padres in front and the Phillies and Dodgers also ahead of them. Atlanta will play two road series with the Mets and the Phillies later in September, but right now is their best chance to make a move for the division crown.
Atlanta is 8-4 against the Mets this year, winning each of the previous four series 2-1. NYM has lost five straight, including three heartbreakers in a row against the Phillies to close that series. And the Braves have restructured their rotation to send their three best pitchers to the hill this weekend. The Mets will counter with two of their best.
It starts tonight, with Tim Hudson (15-6, 3.23) going against John Maine (13-8, 3.68) which should be excellent baseball. On Saturday, if you can pull yourself away from the 3:30 college football games like Georgia Tech/Notre Dame and Boston College/Wake Forest, you can catch the Braves and Mets nationally on Fox, where Chuck James returns from the DL to face a Mets Triple A pitcher of the month. And Sunday afternoon, it's another showdown between John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
Winning the series would move Atlanta to within 3.5. And obviously, a sweep and then a series win against the Phillies might put them in first place by Wednesday. Or the Mets could wake up, beat Atlanta as they've been mostly unable to do this year, and knock the Braves out of the East race and in a big hole in the wild card. Between the Mets and Phillies, they can take Atlanta out. Or the Braves could answer the bell and take the lead. These are the most important six days of baseball so far.
For Alcoa High School
If you're in the East Tennessee area and you're looking for something to do tonight, I'd highly recommend the single best rivalry in Tennessee high school football, when Maryville and Alcoa lock up at AHS tonight. And this continues to be one of those extremely rare moments where both teams are unquestionably at the top of their games - Maryville has won three straight State Championships and seven of the last nine, Alcoa has won three straight State Championships and four this decade. Both schools have sent multiple players to major conference division 1 football. And the matchup tonight will be equal parts talent and emotion. There is simply nothing like it in Tennessee high school football. If you're going, I'd show up early.
Maryville has won six straight (for the uneducated, Maryville is a 4A school, Alcoa a 2A) and 13 of the last 15. But we're still getting behind the alma mater on this blog, and holding out some halfway legitimate hope that tonight is the night that Alcoa busts the streak. I'd be flying my torn Rebel flag outside my door right now, but someone might try and set my house on fire.
For the WWE
There's bad, and then there's bad, and then there's this:
The WWE has suspended 10 wrestlers for one month for violating the Wellness Policy (read: steroids). This comes at the same time as an SI.com report that names names of clients of Signature Pharmacy in Orlando who received shipments of steroids and other banned substances. On ESPN2's First Take this morning, the SI reporters who broke the story said that the suspensions came not as a result of positive drug tests, but in talks with investigators.
While there is room to talk about the potential effects it could have on other sports through a perceived steroid pipeline, and the sorry state of wrestling in general, the immediate problem for the WWE is if the names in the SI.com article are true, then you're looking at one month suspensions for the following competitors:
Charlie Haas, Chavo Guerrero, Edge, Funaki, Gregory Helms, John Morrison, Mr. Kennedy, Randy Orton, Umaga, William Regal
Just looking at it from a storyline standpoint, which is to look at it from a ratings standpoint, which makes it most important...good grief, who's going to be on television for the next month? I mean, maybe Triple H and John Cena can wrestle in every main event between now and then, if the suspensions are immediate...but at a time where wrestling was already in a low talent point and swimming in it from the Chris Benoit tragedy (whose name was also on the list, along with Eddie Guerrero and Brian Adams who both also passed away)...things have gone from bad to worse for Vince McMahon. How are they going to respond? How are they going to come out of it? Reaction must be as immediate as Monday night, with fresh direction. And you're running out of shots to take care of this overall problem.
For Erik Ainge's pinky
The power of Christ compells you! The power of Christ compells you! Be healed!
For the Braves
While Atlanta was taking two of three from the Marlins, they got some bigtime help from the Fightin' Phillies, who swept a four game set with the division leading Mets. With 28 games to play, the last real sense of Atlanta controlling its own destiny will unfold over the next two weeks, but specifically in the next six days - the Braves begin a weekend series with the Mets tonight at Turner Field, then welcome the Phillies to Atlanta for three more starting Monday.
The Braves are 4.5 out in the NL East, with the Mets in the lead and the Phillies just two back. The Braves are also 4.5 out in the NL Wild Card, with the Padres in front and the Phillies and Dodgers also ahead of them. Atlanta will play two road series with the Mets and the Phillies later in September, but right now is their best chance to make a move for the division crown.
Atlanta is 8-4 against the Mets this year, winning each of the previous four series 2-1. NYM has lost five straight, including three heartbreakers in a row against the Phillies to close that series. And the Braves have restructured their rotation to send their three best pitchers to the hill this weekend. The Mets will counter with two of their best.
It starts tonight, with Tim Hudson (15-6, 3.23) going against John Maine (13-8, 3.68) which should be excellent baseball. On Saturday, if you can pull yourself away from the 3:30 college football games like Georgia Tech/Notre Dame and Boston College/Wake Forest, you can catch the Braves and Mets nationally on Fox, where Chuck James returns from the DL to face a Mets Triple A pitcher of the month. And Sunday afternoon, it's another showdown between John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
Winning the series would move Atlanta to within 3.5. And obviously, a sweep and then a series win against the Phillies might put them in first place by Wednesday. Or the Mets could wake up, beat Atlanta as they've been mostly unable to do this year, and knock the Braves out of the East race and in a big hole in the wild card. Between the Mets and Phillies, they can take Atlanta out. Or the Braves could answer the bell and take the lead. These are the most important six days of baseball so far.
For Alcoa High School
If you're in the East Tennessee area and you're looking for something to do tonight, I'd highly recommend the single best rivalry in Tennessee high school football, when Maryville and Alcoa lock up at AHS tonight. And this continues to be one of those extremely rare moments where both teams are unquestionably at the top of their games - Maryville has won three straight State Championships and seven of the last nine, Alcoa has won three straight State Championships and four this decade. Both schools have sent multiple players to major conference division 1 football. And the matchup tonight will be equal parts talent and emotion. There is simply nothing like it in Tennessee high school football. If you're going, I'd show up early.
Maryville has won six straight (for the uneducated, Maryville is a 4A school, Alcoa a 2A) and 13 of the last 15. But we're still getting behind the alma mater on this blog, and holding out some halfway legitimate hope that tonight is the night that Alcoa busts the streak. I'd be flying my torn Rebel flag outside my door right now, but someone might try and set my house on fire.
For the WWE
There's bad, and then there's bad, and then there's this:
The WWE has suspended 10 wrestlers for one month for violating the Wellness Policy (read: steroids). This comes at the same time as an SI.com report that names names of clients of Signature Pharmacy in Orlando who received shipments of steroids and other banned substances. On ESPN2's First Take this morning, the SI reporters who broke the story said that the suspensions came not as a result of positive drug tests, but in talks with investigators.
While there is room to talk about the potential effects it could have on other sports through a perceived steroid pipeline, and the sorry state of wrestling in general, the immediate problem for the WWE is if the names in the SI.com article are true, then you're looking at one month suspensions for the following competitors:
Charlie Haas, Chavo Guerrero, Edge, Funaki, Gregory Helms, John Morrison, Mr. Kennedy, Randy Orton, Umaga, William Regal
Just looking at it from a storyline standpoint, which is to look at it from a ratings standpoint, which makes it most important...good grief, who's going to be on television for the next month? I mean, maybe Triple H and John Cena can wrestle in every main event between now and then, if the suspensions are immediate...but at a time where wrestling was already in a low talent point and swimming in it from the Chris Benoit tragedy (whose name was also on the list, along with Eddie Guerrero and Brian Adams who both also passed away)...things have gone from bad to worse for Vince McMahon. How are they going to respond? How are they going to come out of it? Reaction must be as immediate as Monday night, with fresh direction. And you're running out of shots to take care of this overall problem.
For Erik Ainge's pinky
The power of Christ compells you! The power of Christ compells you! Be healed!
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
College Football Picks - Opening Weekend
If I had a vote in the AP Top 25...
1. Southern Cal
They'll probably be hanging out up here until someone beats them. No doubt the best.
2. Texas
Look at the schedule - by far the easiest road to New Orleans
3. Michigan
Best offense in college football? Can they beat Ohio State?
4. West Virginia
We know they can play offense...can they play enough defense and avoid the upset?
5. Louisville
And why are we all so convinved that West Virginia is so much better than them?
6. LSU
Top five talent no doubt and great defense, but tough to escape the SEC alive...
7. Virginia Tech
May not stay America's Team long with Sept. 8 date in Baton Rouge
8. Florida
Defending champs have a brand new defense and a QB ready to prove himself
9. Wisconsin
Experienced Badgers may still make it three straight trips to Orlando...
10. Oklahoma
I'm not so sold on the idea that it's just that easy to replace Paul Thompson & A-Pete
11. Ohio State
Chris Wells must carry the offense...OSU is always a factor in the Big 10
12. Boise State
Alright, so maybe I will rank them higher than 24...
13. Penn State
Darkhorse candidates to make the BCS, lots of experience on both sides of the ball
14. Tennessee
It's make or break right away for the Vols; could be Top 5 or out of the poll by Oct.
15. Georgia
Offensive line and defensive questions must be answered quickly for title run
16. California
Once again, big opportunity right away to prove they're worth it
17. Arkansas
Marcus Monk m-u-s-t get healthy for this offense to work right
18. UCLA
No team in the country returns more starters than the upstart Bruins
19. Rutgers
Last year was special, now's the time to prove they belong with an NYC pull behind them
20. Auburn
The forgotten player in the SEC race
21. Nebraska
Big Red Nation won't settle for average; Callahan must keep improving
22. TCU
We'll see how long this lasts (at Texas, September 8)
23. Boston College
Gritty, experienced team with ACC Player of the Year Matt Ryan back at QB
24. Hawaii
If they don't go 12-0, something went really wrong...if they do, Brennan can win the Heisman
25. South Carolina
I believe in Steve Spurrier the same way I believe in the devil
Will's Top 10 Players
1. Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
2. Brian Brohm QB Louisville
3. Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
4. Mario Manningham WR Michigan
5. Vince Hall LB Virginia Tech
6. Steve Slaton RB West Virginia
7. John David Booty QB Southern Cal
8. Colt McCoy QB Texas
9. Mike Hart RB Michigan
10. Dan Connor LB Penn State
Thursday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Tulsa - 7:00 PM - ESPN2
Probably not what you were expecting, but believe it or not this marquee matchup kicks off the 2007 season, so we're picking it. But there's more here to like than you think. The matchup of two of the best nicknames in college football - the ULM Warhawks, last seen as the Indians and taking a 70-7 beating at the hands of the Vols in 2000, and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane is guaranteed to be more exciting than the Boston College-Central Michigan kickoff last year. Both teams score points - ULM lost to Kentucky 42-40 last year, and Tulsa is installing the spread offense. Steve Kragthorpe was hired away by Louisville when Bobby Petrino headed south to the Falcons - wonder if he regrets that one now - so Tulsa picked up Todd Graham from Rice, who spent only one year there after serving as the defensive coordinator in Tulsa from 03-05. But in that one year, he got Rice in a bowl game, so he should be able to keep up the small run that the Golden Hurricane have been on and make it three straight bowls. Helping with the new spread offense is Gus Malzahn, who landed in Tulsa after one turbulant season in Fayetteville. The points should be on the scoreboard in this one. ULM should be better than last year. That's the best I can do.
Tulsa 38 - Louisiana-Monroe 17
Mississippi State vs. #2 LSU - 8:00 PM - ESPN
And now, for what you'll actually be watching. First, you'll be watching to see if Mississippi State has any chance. Then, you'll be watching so see how good LSU actually is. Does MSU have a chance? All of their offensive weapons from last year - Michael Henig, Anthony Dixon, all the receivers and four offensive linemen - but that ain't saying much for a team that averaged 18.4 points per game in 2006. Five starters back on defense, including potential All-SEC Derek Pegues at free safety. Eh.
Okay, so they're not going to win...but I submit for your approval the following: one, Mississippi State closed well, relatively speaking, in 2006 - after get blown out by West Virginia, they beat 1AA Jacksonville State, lost to Georgia and Kentucky by three points, beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, lost to Arkansas by only two touchdowns and to Ole Miss by three. Two, LSU does not play well in at the start of the year. In 2004, LSU needed a missed extra point to beat Oregon State. In 2005, LSU needed special teams miracles to beat Arizona State, then lost to Tennessee in the Ralley at Death Valley. Last year, the Tigers lost to Auburn in a 7-3 struggle. These guys don't know anything about starting strong. Three, any team, but especially an SEC team, doesn't care about LSU's mystique and talent and the like, and will come out ready to play. In Starkville...I think this game is going to be much, much, much closer than people think. I'm still picking LSU...but you'll be watching in the 4th quarter.
LSU 24 - Mississippi State 21
Oregon State vs. Utah - 10:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
This one's going to be good too, and both of these teams are better than you think. Oregon State won 10 games last year and return 17 starters, including RB Yvenson Bernard, both starting receivers, and four linemen on offense. QB Sean Canfield saw time in 10 of 14 games last year, and the job now belongs to him. The defense returns eight, and OSU's got a chip on their shoulder - last year in the second game, they went to Boise State on a Thursday night and got absolutely hammered 42-14. Their national respect didn't come back after that, even when they beat Southern Cal. This team could be a Top 25 group by the end of the year, but they need to win this one first. And Utah could be in the same boat - after getting equally smacked by Boise last year (36-3), they return almost their entire offense and five on defense. In a game like this with a hostile environment involved, you go with the home team. Should still be quality footba ll either way.
Oregon State 30 - Utah 24
Friday, August 31
Syracuse vs. Washington - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bet this one looked a lot better when they signed the contract a few years ago. UDub started 4-1 last year, then lost six straight before "salvaging" the year by winning the Apple Cup. New QB Jake Locker is supposed to be the future of the program, but you wonder about that future: here's UDub's opening schedule - at Syracuse, Boise State, Ohio State, at UCLA, Southern Cal, at Arizona State, Oregon. If they win one of those games, it'll be an upset. And actually, you can argue that the easiest one to win will be this one, in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome, where the Orange faithful are longing for their program to be relevant again as well. SU was even worse last year, 4-8, and the two coaches, Greg Robinson and Ty Willingham, are 12-34 combined in their first two seasons at these once-important programs. Either team that wins will pick up a huge W here. Syracuse will also be breaking in a new quarterback. You ca n argue that Washington is the better team here, even though both are bad. But you don't pick against the 'Cuse in the Carrier Dome...at least not against UDub.
Syracuse 24 - Washington 23
Saturday, September 1
#9 Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina - 12:00 PM - ESPN
Skip Holtz' boys get to be the guinea pigs in the "how will VaTech respond?" game. Actually, all seriousness of the tragedy aside, I think it's going to be totally irrelevant once the ball is kicked, or at least in this game. Should VT be in it in the 4th quarter next week in Baton Rouge, maybe then it will kick in. But there should be no extra motivation needed against the Pirates, who of course, aren't terrible as usual, but are replacing all of their offensive weapons and doing so against one of the three best defenses in all of college football. ECU has a solid defense with seven back, and the biggest question mark here is how efficiently Sean Glennon can lead the Hokies. Don't expect a sparkling performance here - when VT wins they win ugly, and defense and special teams will once again be the theme of the day and the year. Hokies win easy, but still not sharp enough on offense to make fans feel great about next week. Too soon for Mike Vick jokes?
Virginia Tech 27 - East Carolina 7
Colorado vs. Colorado State (at Denver) - 12:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
The Rocky Mountain showdown features ex-Boise State head coach Dan Hawkins, who I'm sure wept a tear or two last January while watching the Fiesta Bowl, in his second year with the Buffaloes after a disastrous 2-10 season in 2006 that included only a win over Iowa State and a stunning 30-6 win over Texas Tech when they were 0-6. The whole offense is back except the QB position, where Cody Hawkins - yep, that's Dan's son - will take the reigns as a redshirt freshman. The defense wasn't terrible last year and should be better this year, to make CU more than competitive again and hopefully pick up more than two wins.
The Rams, meanwhile, get RB Kyle Bell back after he missed all of last year with an ACL tear, and are trying to get the program back on MWC championship-level. They too were terrible last year - started 4-1, finished 4-8. 19 starters return from a team that beat Colorado 14-10 last year. This one too is key for both teams, who real ly need to get off to a great start. Colorado probably has more talent, CSU has more senior experience both need a win in a big way...I'll take the seniors at CSU to steal the win in an ugly football game. Much like Syracuse/Washington, these are two sub-par teams who desperately need a win to start 2007.
Colorado State 21 - Colorado 20
#6 Florida vs. Western Kentucky - 12:30 PM - LF Sports
In the first D1 game in the history of the program, Western Kentucky faces the defending National Champions in The Swamp. Florida will be playing the "don't get anybody hurt" game once again for two weeks, facing WKU and Troy in Gainesville to open things up. Even with the 9 new starters on defense, shouldn't be much to worry about here, and all eyes will be on Tim Tebow with expectations at a fever pitch. Since they're the newcomers, it might not be a stretch to suggest that WKU is the worst team in D1 football...against the defending National Champions...this one might go beyond "name it."
Florida 56 - Western Kentucky 0
#7 Wisconsin vs. Washington State - 3:30 PM - ABC
Here's another matchup that probably looked better a few years ago. Wisconsin is a very legitimate national championship contender, while Washington State might be the worst team in the Pac-10. Fortunately for those of us on the eastern half of the US, we'll be seeing the one below this...because this one shouldn't be close.
Wisconsin 30 - Washington State 9
Boston College vs. Wake Forest - 3:30 PM - ABC
Come December, we could be looking back at this matchup as the game that determined the ACC Atlantic Division. Last year, Wake shocked the world in winning the conference, including a 21-14 win over BC along the way. This year, in the division that includes these two teams along with Florida State and Clemson, the winners of these two opening weekend games will have a huge leg up on the competition. And even though neither of these teams are ranked, they both arguably could/should be.
Wake brings back all the important pieces from its offense, but will need to retool their secondary. That could be easy pickings for Matt Ryan and the Boston College offense, who also return most of their weapons, plus a much more experienced defense. I expect this one to be very close and competitive...there are a bunch of people, including me, who think Wake Forest was a one year wonder and won't be relevant in the ACC title race come November. ; ; ; ; ; Winning at Chesnut Hill right away would shut all those voices up. However, I think Boston College is the better team, and playing at home...there's just too many reasons to pick the Eagles. Good football game.
Boston College 28 - Wake Forest 23
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech - 3:30 PM - NBC
This one, for me, is the toughest call of the opening weekend. I've gone back and forth on this one all summer - Georgia Tech has two holes to fill on offense, one good and one bad. The bad news is, there's no replacing Calvin Johnson. The good news is, Reggie Ball is already a distant memory. Taylor Bennett did that by throwing for 326 yards and 3 TDs in the Gator Bowl. Granted, that was West Virginia's defense, but are we really suggesting that Notre Dame's is any better? And the focus of the offense will now shift to Tashard Choice, who (surprisingly) led the ACC in rushing last year with almost 1500 yards. The Ramblin Wreck defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed only 18.4 points per game last year - these guys are good.
For the Irish...well, at least it's at home right? ND squeaked by GT 14-10 in Atlanta last year, and of all the big name programs in college football, Notre Dame returns the least - 3 st arters on offense, 5 on defense. The names are all new on offense, as the returning starters are the tight end and two linemen. Charlie Weis is keeping his mouth shut on who the starting QB will be, though Jimmy Clausen's trip to the liquor store probably didn't help his chances. Evan Sharpley and Demetrius Jones may/will also see action. On defense...well, Tom Zbikowski is still punching away back there, but is there anything else around him? Notre Dame will need a whole heap of that Irish mystique early and often, and an 0-3 start isn't at all out of the question with trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor following this one. So how much do you believe in Notre Dame at home?
Georgia Tech 24 - Notre Dame 21
Missouri vs. Illinois (at St. Louis) - 3:30 PM - ESPN2
A new rivalry potentially emerging here, and these are two very interesting teams. Missou started hot last year, winning their first six before landsliding to an 8-5 finish. However, the Tigers return all of their offensive weapons - QB Chase Daniel, RB Tony Temple, and all the pass catchers - from a team that averaged 425 yards per game last year. With their '07 schedule void of Texas, the Tigers are legitimate threats to win the Big 12 North. Meanwhile, Illinois has the most exciting player on a bad team - QB Juice Williams - but they'll have to find a new running back. Otherwise, all the offensive pieces return here as well, but the Illini were 2-10 last year. The defense returns 9 starters, and it's Ron Zook's team, so they've recruited well...but are they good enough to come in right away to a neutral site game and upset Missouri? Illinois should definitely improve this year and may even get to a bowl for the first time since winn ing the Big 10 in 2001, but Missouri is good right now, and definitely good enough to hold off the Zookers.
Missouri 34 - Illinois 20
Memphis vs. Mississippi - 3:30 PM - CSS
It's farewell, Brent Schaeffer at QB, as the ex-Vol stud will be playing wide receiver, maybe. The job falls to Seth Adams, who saw work in Ole Miss' last two games in 2006 and has a Rick Clausen quality about him, take that for what you will. BenJarvus Green-Ellis does return, and against Tiger High the Rebels may simply give it to him about 40 times and stand back. The Rebs won a shootout 28-25 in this game last year, but as the scene shifts to the Liberty Bowl, is Memphis the better team? Martin Hankins returns under center with Joe Doss behind him at tailback to give the offense plenty of experience. The defense returns seven and may not be overly challenged by the Rebels in the opener. This is big for two coaches in Ed Orgeron and Tommy West who will find the seat a little warm if they don't perform in 2007. The Rebels especially, in a year where the SEC rotation deals them both Florida and Georgia on the schedule, need to win thi s one desperately. I refuse to pick Memphis against an SEC school, but the Tigers, playing at home, might be the more logical choice.
Mississippi 20 - Memphis 17
#13 Georgia vs. Oklahoma State - 6:45 PM - ESPN2
Why Oklahoma State could win: the Cowboys have an explosive offense in QB Bobby Reid, RB Dantrell Savage, and preseason All-American WR Adarius Bowman. The Cowboys were 7th in the nation in scoring last year at 35.2 points per game, and all the major pieces are back. Six of the back seven return on defense, including all three linebackers. This is a team that lost to Texas A&M in overtime, hung 41 points on Nebraska in a win, took Oklahoma to the wire and beat Alabama in the Independence Bowl last year. OSU won't be intimidated by The Hedges the way Boise State was two years ago.
Why Oklahoma State won't win: the Cowboys are replacing their entire defensive line, which means if Georgia's retooled offensive line comes together, Kregg Lumpkin and company will run all day. If that happens, Matthew Stafford and Mohammed Massaquoi will hook up in the passing game, and Georgia's defense, which will get baptized by fire here, should be just good enough to win at home. This one might be even more dangerous for UGA than Cal is for Tennessee, because at least the Vols know what they're getting into. Don't be fooled into thinking this is anything resembling an easy win for Georgia - I think Okie State will take them to the wire. But it's a win nonetheless.
Georgia 27 - Oklahoma State 24
#18 Auburn vs. Kansas State - 7:45 PM - ESPN
Why Kansas State could win: reasons are harder to come by here, though KSU QB Josh Freeman has the potential to be a star after leading the Wildcats down the stretch last year, including the upset win over Texas. The defense is adequate, the running game is experienced but needs improvement, but Kansas State lacks the same raw talent and explosiveness that Oklahoma State has, and Auburn's defense is better than Georgia's. So, in the final hurrah for Brandon Cox and Carl Stewart, Auburn should be able to get off to a good start here. It's not a gimmie, but Auburn, at home, should have more than enough for the Wildcats. It's the one next week with South Florida that you've got to worry about more.
Auburn 28 - Kansas State 14
#12 California vs. #15 Tennessee - 8:00 PM - ABC
It's interesting to try and project how last year's 35-18 drubbing in Knoxville will affect both teams. I'm sure Cal has been pointing to this one all offseason, but some of that is negated by the fact that the Bears are six point favorites, which will serve to motivate Tennessee in similar fashion. I do think that if Tennessee can jump on Cal early, the Bears will fall right back into panic mode - none of Cal's big victories, including the big bowl win over Texas A&M, have fallen into that elite category that will give them the "been there done that" confidence to effectively bounce back against the Vols if they get behind.
So while a lot of this will be between the ears stuff, between the lines you've got a Cal team that's experienced and explosive, especially on offense. Nate Longshore, Justin Forsett, and DeSean Jackson - even though none of them played particularly well against Tennessee - are all all-conference candidates. Jackson especially has the look and the sound of a future NFL star, but until he proves it on the field against a team like Tennessee, he hasn't earned the right to talk the way he does. The problem there may be Tennessee's secondary - Jackson won't be facing Jonathan Wade, Inky Johnson, Demetrice Morley, Antwan Stewart or even Roshaun Fellows. Instead, Antonio Gaines, Marsalous Johnson, and the young stud Eric Berry will get a look at stopping Jackson. Berry has absolutely lived up to his billing as the best incoming defensive back in college football all throughout fall practice, but once again, until you see it on the field, you question it . The lone bright spot in the secondary is preseason All-American Jonathan Hefney at free safety, who needs to make plays.
The rest of the defense must stop the run - the LB corps appears solid, and I believe in at least the potential of Antonio Reynolds, Demonte Bolden, JT Mapu and Xavier Mitchell on the line. Forsett isn't a bruiser at 5'8" 185, so the Vols need to bruise him. Tennessee defenses have a tendency to not disappoint, no matter the personel. So until proven otherwise, I'll take my chances with our defense.
Cal's biggest question mark is its defensive front seven, which lost DT Brandon Mebane and LB Desmond Bishop, and returns only two starters. The Vols m-u-s-t exploit this and run the football effectively to win. They've preached it and practiced it, they've got the horses in the backfield, and the offensive line should be ready. If Tennessee can control the line of scrimmage and not turn it over, we'll all breathe easier. Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty need to have big days and wear this defense out.
When the Vols do have to go to the air, you trust David Cutcliffe and you probably trust Erik Ainge at this point, but my question is this: if the Vols are down four with 2:00 to play and 80 yards in front of them, do they have the playmakers to make it happen? Regardless of what I've said about him before, I think Austin Rogers will end up being just fine, in a Craig Faulkner mold, but someone else has to emerge or the Vols will go nowhere all year. We keep hearing about Lucas Taylor, now it's time to see it. We keep hearing about these freshmen - and the reality may be that 2008 is the real year to expect something from these guys - but any positive contributions would be welcome.
At the end of the day, as usual, it's going to take a solid effort on both sides of the ball to win this one. This may turn into one of those "the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win" games, though I don't anticipate Tennessee's offense being too risky in that department, and we've seen firsthand that Longshore can be rattled. If we have to do it old school, with 45 rushing attempts and south of 200 passing yards and eat up the clock, that's just fine with me. I don't believe for a second that Cal's talent is six points better than us, I'd call it an even matchup. And even if I was completely unbiased, I'd say that until you see that Cal is capable of winning a game like this, you don't pick them, even at home, against a team that's proven time and again that they can get it done. Since I am biased, I'll throw in that the last time the Vols played on ABC was 2003 at Miami, and the last time the Vols opened on the road at 1998 at Syracuse. And those turned out alright.
Tennessee 24 - California 21
#1 Southern Cal vs. Idaho - 10:15 PM - Fox Sports Net
The obligatory #1 team in the nation pick, giving you all a chance to pick the upset...Idaho lost Dennis Erickson, return 14 starters from a 4-8 team last year that finished 6th in the mighty WAC, and it's too bad they aren't playing this game at home in the 16,000 capacity Kibbie Dome, where the rocking atmosphere might be enough to make you think upset. Instead, it's in LA, and Southern Cal will get to feel all good about themselves. The only real bad news for the Trojans here is that this one probably won't be an adequate tune-up before they take next week off, then head to Nebraska on the 15th. We'll see...
Southern Cal 63 - Idaho 7
Monday, September 3 - Labor Day
Clemson vs. #19 Florida State - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bowden Bowl IX will feature the Tigers going for their third straight in the series and fourth in the last five years. So there will be no intimidation factor when the Noles come rolling into Death Valley, SC. Clemson has a terrible habit of doing the exact opposite of what I pick them to do, so read on and then don't take my advice. James Davis and CJ Spiller are back in the Tiger backfield, and new QB Cullen Harper is the new face under center. The Tigers were very one dimensional last year - 5th nationally in rush offense, 67th in pass offense - and without Chansi Stuckey the receiving game may be in even worse shape this year. The Tigers are also breaking in four new starters on the offensive line. The news is a little better on defense, even though Gaines Adams is playing in the NFL now. Six starters return, two in each unit. And Jad Dean finally graduated after a dozen years at Clemson, so they'll be breaking in a new kicker.
And then there's Florida State. The Noles are ranked because they're Florida State, much like the Vols slipping in the preseason poll last year. And because they're Florida State, they do have talent - De'Cody Fagg and Greg Carr (6'6") are solid WR options, and there's a lot of potential in RB Antone Smith. But the offense will once again come down to the Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee question, which has gone on for way too long and may continue to haunt FSU. The defense is a Florida State defense, which will be as good and as fast as you'd expect. Eight starters return, including the entire defensive line, which is trouble for Davis and Spiller. And Chuck Amato is back on staff, bringing his mafia tactics to the LB corps once more.
Remember the Labor Day game last year between the Noles and Miami, and how ugly it was? Better get used to it - FSU's defense will be tough to score on all year, and their offense will probably continue to struggle. Clemson is the home dog in this case, but I like their atmosphere and their talent to pull them through. Florida State has been too uncertain for me in the last two years, so I'm not picking them to go on the road in the opener and beat a team that none of the current players have handled well in the past. Clemson, ugly but effective.
Clemson 20 - Florida State 17
1. Southern Cal
They'll probably be hanging out up here until someone beats them. No doubt the best.
2. Texas
Look at the schedule - by far the easiest road to New Orleans
3. Michigan
Best offense in college football? Can they beat Ohio State?
4. West Virginia
We know they can play offense...can they play enough defense and avoid the upset?
5. Louisville
And why are we all so convinved that West Virginia is so much better than them?
6. LSU
Top five talent no doubt and great defense, but tough to escape the SEC alive...
7. Virginia Tech
May not stay America's Team long with Sept. 8 date in Baton Rouge
8. Florida
Defending champs have a brand new defense and a QB ready to prove himself
9. Wisconsin
Experienced Badgers may still make it three straight trips to Orlando...
10. Oklahoma
I'm not so sold on the idea that it's just that easy to replace Paul Thompson & A-Pete
11. Ohio State
Chris Wells must carry the offense...OSU is always a factor in the Big 10
12. Boise State
Alright, so maybe I will rank them higher than 24...
13. Penn State
Darkhorse candidates to make the BCS, lots of experience on both sides of the ball
14. Tennessee
It's make or break right away for the Vols; could be Top 5 or out of the poll by Oct.
15. Georgia
Offensive line and defensive questions must be answered quickly for title run
16. California
Once again, big opportunity right away to prove they're worth it
17. Arkansas
Marcus Monk m-u-s-t get healthy for this offense to work right
18. UCLA
No team in the country returns more starters than the upstart Bruins
19. Rutgers
Last year was special, now's the time to prove they belong with an NYC pull behind them
20. Auburn
The forgotten player in the SEC race
21. Nebraska
Big Red Nation won't settle for average; Callahan must keep improving
22. TCU
We'll see how long this lasts (at Texas, September 8)
23. Boston College
Gritty, experienced team with ACC Player of the Year Matt Ryan back at QB
24. Hawaii
If they don't go 12-0, something went really wrong...if they do, Brennan can win the Heisman
25. South Carolina
I believe in Steve Spurrier the same way I believe in the devil
Will's Top 10 Players
1. Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
2. Brian Brohm QB Louisville
3. Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
4. Mario Manningham WR Michigan
5. Vince Hall LB Virginia Tech
6. Steve Slaton RB West Virginia
7. John David Booty QB Southern Cal
8. Colt McCoy QB Texas
9. Mike Hart RB Michigan
10. Dan Connor LB Penn State
Thursday, August 30
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Tulsa - 7:00 PM - ESPN2
Probably not what you were expecting, but believe it or not this marquee matchup kicks off the 2007 season, so we're picking it. But there's more here to like than you think. The matchup of two of the best nicknames in college football - the ULM Warhawks, last seen as the Indians and taking a 70-7 beating at the hands of the Vols in 2000, and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane is guaranteed to be more exciting than the Boston College-Central Michigan kickoff last year. Both teams score points - ULM lost to Kentucky 42-40 last year, and Tulsa is installing the spread offense. Steve Kragthorpe was hired away by Louisville when Bobby Petrino headed south to the Falcons - wonder if he regrets that one now - so Tulsa picked up Todd Graham from Rice, who spent only one year there after serving as the defensive coordinator in Tulsa from 03-05. But in that one year, he got Rice in a bowl game, so he should be able to keep up the small run that the Golden Hurricane have been on and make it three straight bowls. Helping with the new spread offense is Gus Malzahn, who landed in Tulsa after one turbulant season in Fayetteville. The points should be on the scoreboard in this one. ULM should be better than last year. That's the best I can do.
Tulsa 38 - Louisiana-Monroe 17
Mississippi State vs. #2 LSU - 8:00 PM - ESPN
And now, for what you'll actually be watching. First, you'll be watching to see if Mississippi State has any chance. Then, you'll be watching so see how good LSU actually is. Does MSU have a chance? All of their offensive weapons from last year - Michael Henig, Anthony Dixon, all the receivers and four offensive linemen - but that ain't saying much for a team that averaged 18.4 points per game in 2006. Five starters back on defense, including potential All-SEC Derek Pegues at free safety. Eh.
Okay, so they're not going to win...but I submit for your approval the following: one, Mississippi State closed well, relatively speaking, in 2006 - after get blown out by West Virginia, they beat 1AA Jacksonville State, lost to Georgia and Kentucky by three points, beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, lost to Arkansas by only two touchdowns and to Ole Miss by three. Two, LSU does not play well in at the start of the year. In 2004, LSU needed a missed extra point to beat Oregon State. In 2005, LSU needed special teams miracles to beat Arizona State, then lost to Tennessee in the Ralley at Death Valley. Last year, the Tigers lost to Auburn in a 7-3 struggle. These guys don't know anything about starting strong. Three, any team, but especially an SEC team, doesn't care about LSU's mystique and talent and the like, and will come out ready to play. In Starkville...I think this game is going to be much, much, much closer than people think. I'm still picking LSU...but you'll be watching in the 4th quarter.
LSU 24 - Mississippi State 21
Oregon State vs. Utah - 10:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
This one's going to be good too, and both of these teams are better than you think. Oregon State won 10 games last year and return 17 starters, including RB Yvenson Bernard, both starting receivers, and four linemen on offense. QB Sean Canfield saw time in 10 of 14 games last year, and the job now belongs to him. The defense returns eight, and OSU's got a chip on their shoulder - last year in the second game, they went to Boise State on a Thursday night and got absolutely hammered 42-14. Their national respect didn't come back after that, even when they beat Southern Cal. This team could be a Top 25 group by the end of the year, but they need to win this one first. And Utah could be in the same boat - after getting equally smacked by Boise last year (36-3), they return almost their entire offense and five on defense. In a game like this with a hostile environment involved, you go with the home team. Should still be quality footba ll either way.
Oregon State 30 - Utah 24
Friday, August 31
Syracuse vs. Washington - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bet this one looked a lot better when they signed the contract a few years ago. UDub started 4-1 last year, then lost six straight before "salvaging" the year by winning the Apple Cup. New QB Jake Locker is supposed to be the future of the program, but you wonder about that future: here's UDub's opening schedule - at Syracuse, Boise State, Ohio State, at UCLA, Southern Cal, at Arizona State, Oregon. If they win one of those games, it'll be an upset. And actually, you can argue that the easiest one to win will be this one, in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome, where the Orange faithful are longing for their program to be relevant again as well. SU was even worse last year, 4-8, and the two coaches, Greg Robinson and Ty Willingham, are 12-34 combined in their first two seasons at these once-important programs. Either team that wins will pick up a huge W here. Syracuse will also be breaking in a new quarterback. You ca n argue that Washington is the better team here, even though both are bad. But you don't pick against the 'Cuse in the Carrier Dome...at least not against UDub.
Syracuse 24 - Washington 23
Saturday, September 1
#9 Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina - 12:00 PM - ESPN
Skip Holtz' boys get to be the guinea pigs in the "how will VaTech respond?" game. Actually, all seriousness of the tragedy aside, I think it's going to be totally irrelevant once the ball is kicked, or at least in this game. Should VT be in it in the 4th quarter next week in Baton Rouge, maybe then it will kick in. But there should be no extra motivation needed against the Pirates, who of course, aren't terrible as usual, but are replacing all of their offensive weapons and doing so against one of the three best defenses in all of college football. ECU has a solid defense with seven back, and the biggest question mark here is how efficiently Sean Glennon can lead the Hokies. Don't expect a sparkling performance here - when VT wins they win ugly, and defense and special teams will once again be the theme of the day and the year. Hokies win easy, but still not sharp enough on offense to make fans feel great about next week. Too soon for Mike Vick jokes?
Virginia Tech 27 - East Carolina 7
Colorado vs. Colorado State (at Denver) - 12:00 PM - Fox Sports Net
The Rocky Mountain showdown features ex-Boise State head coach Dan Hawkins, who I'm sure wept a tear or two last January while watching the Fiesta Bowl, in his second year with the Buffaloes after a disastrous 2-10 season in 2006 that included only a win over Iowa State and a stunning 30-6 win over Texas Tech when they were 0-6. The whole offense is back except the QB position, where Cody Hawkins - yep, that's Dan's son - will take the reigns as a redshirt freshman. The defense wasn't terrible last year and should be better this year, to make CU more than competitive again and hopefully pick up more than two wins.
The Rams, meanwhile, get RB Kyle Bell back after he missed all of last year with an ACL tear, and are trying to get the program back on MWC championship-level. They too were terrible last year - started 4-1, finished 4-8. 19 starters return from a team that beat Colorado 14-10 last year. This one too is key for both teams, who real ly need to get off to a great start. Colorado probably has more talent, CSU has more senior experience both need a win in a big way...I'll take the seniors at CSU to steal the win in an ugly football game. Much like Syracuse/Washington, these are two sub-par teams who desperately need a win to start 2007.
Colorado State 21 - Colorado 20
#6 Florida vs. Western Kentucky - 12:30 PM - LF Sports
In the first D1 game in the history of the program, Western Kentucky faces the defending National Champions in The Swamp. Florida will be playing the "don't get anybody hurt" game once again for two weeks, facing WKU and Troy in Gainesville to open things up. Even with the 9 new starters on defense, shouldn't be much to worry about here, and all eyes will be on Tim Tebow with expectations at a fever pitch. Since they're the newcomers, it might not be a stretch to suggest that WKU is the worst team in D1 football...against the defending National Champions...this one might go beyond "name it."
Florida 56 - Western Kentucky 0
#7 Wisconsin vs. Washington State - 3:30 PM - ABC
Here's another matchup that probably looked better a few years ago. Wisconsin is a very legitimate national championship contender, while Washington State might be the worst team in the Pac-10. Fortunately for those of us on the eastern half of the US, we'll be seeing the one below this...because this one shouldn't be close.
Wisconsin 30 - Washington State 9
Boston College vs. Wake Forest - 3:30 PM - ABC
Come December, we could be looking back at this matchup as the game that determined the ACC Atlantic Division. Last year, Wake shocked the world in winning the conference, including a 21-14 win over BC along the way. This year, in the division that includes these two teams along with Florida State and Clemson, the winners of these two opening weekend games will have a huge leg up on the competition. And even though neither of these teams are ranked, they both arguably could/should be.
Wake brings back all the important pieces from its offense, but will need to retool their secondary. That could be easy pickings for Matt Ryan and the Boston College offense, who also return most of their weapons, plus a much more experienced defense. I expect this one to be very close and competitive...there are a bunch of people, including me, who think Wake Forest was a one year wonder and won't be relevant in the ACC title race come November. ; ; ; ; ; Winning at Chesnut Hill right away would shut all those voices up. However, I think Boston College is the better team, and playing at home...there's just too many reasons to pick the Eagles. Good football game.
Boston College 28 - Wake Forest 23
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech - 3:30 PM - NBC
This one, for me, is the toughest call of the opening weekend. I've gone back and forth on this one all summer - Georgia Tech has two holes to fill on offense, one good and one bad. The bad news is, there's no replacing Calvin Johnson. The good news is, Reggie Ball is already a distant memory. Taylor Bennett did that by throwing for 326 yards and 3 TDs in the Gator Bowl. Granted, that was West Virginia's defense, but are we really suggesting that Notre Dame's is any better? And the focus of the offense will now shift to Tashard Choice, who (surprisingly) led the ACC in rushing last year with almost 1500 yards. The Ramblin Wreck defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed only 18.4 points per game last year - these guys are good.
For the Irish...well, at least it's at home right? ND squeaked by GT 14-10 in Atlanta last year, and of all the big name programs in college football, Notre Dame returns the least - 3 st arters on offense, 5 on defense. The names are all new on offense, as the returning starters are the tight end and two linemen. Charlie Weis is keeping his mouth shut on who the starting QB will be, though Jimmy Clausen's trip to the liquor store probably didn't help his chances. Evan Sharpley and Demetrius Jones may/will also see action. On defense...well, Tom Zbikowski is still punching away back there, but is there anything else around him? Notre Dame will need a whole heap of that Irish mystique early and often, and an 0-3 start isn't at all out of the question with trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor following this one. So how much do you believe in Notre Dame at home?
Georgia Tech 24 - Notre Dame 21
Missouri vs. Illinois (at St. Louis) - 3:30 PM - ESPN2
A new rivalry potentially emerging here, and these are two very interesting teams. Missou started hot last year, winning their first six before landsliding to an 8-5 finish. However, the Tigers return all of their offensive weapons - QB Chase Daniel, RB Tony Temple, and all the pass catchers - from a team that averaged 425 yards per game last year. With their '07 schedule void of Texas, the Tigers are legitimate threats to win the Big 12 North. Meanwhile, Illinois has the most exciting player on a bad team - QB Juice Williams - but they'll have to find a new running back. Otherwise, all the offensive pieces return here as well, but the Illini were 2-10 last year. The defense returns 9 starters, and it's Ron Zook's team, so they've recruited well...but are they good enough to come in right away to a neutral site game and upset Missouri? Illinois should definitely improve this year and may even get to a bowl for the first time since winn ing the Big 10 in 2001, but Missouri is good right now, and definitely good enough to hold off the Zookers.
Missouri 34 - Illinois 20
Memphis vs. Mississippi - 3:30 PM - CSS
It's farewell, Brent Schaeffer at QB, as the ex-Vol stud will be playing wide receiver, maybe. The job falls to Seth Adams, who saw work in Ole Miss' last two games in 2006 and has a Rick Clausen quality about him, take that for what you will. BenJarvus Green-Ellis does return, and against Tiger High the Rebels may simply give it to him about 40 times and stand back. The Rebs won a shootout 28-25 in this game last year, but as the scene shifts to the Liberty Bowl, is Memphis the better team? Martin Hankins returns under center with Joe Doss behind him at tailback to give the offense plenty of experience. The defense returns seven and may not be overly challenged by the Rebels in the opener. This is big for two coaches in Ed Orgeron and Tommy West who will find the seat a little warm if they don't perform in 2007. The Rebels especially, in a year where the SEC rotation deals them both Florida and Georgia on the schedule, need to win thi s one desperately. I refuse to pick Memphis against an SEC school, but the Tigers, playing at home, might be the more logical choice.
Mississippi 20 - Memphis 17
#13 Georgia vs. Oklahoma State - 6:45 PM - ESPN2
Why Oklahoma State could win: the Cowboys have an explosive offense in QB Bobby Reid, RB Dantrell Savage, and preseason All-American WR Adarius Bowman. The Cowboys were 7th in the nation in scoring last year at 35.2 points per game, and all the major pieces are back. Six of the back seven return on defense, including all three linebackers. This is a team that lost to Texas A&M in overtime, hung 41 points on Nebraska in a win, took Oklahoma to the wire and beat Alabama in the Independence Bowl last year. OSU won't be intimidated by The Hedges the way Boise State was two years ago.
Why Oklahoma State won't win: the Cowboys are replacing their entire defensive line, which means if Georgia's retooled offensive line comes together, Kregg Lumpkin and company will run all day. If that happens, Matthew Stafford and Mohammed Massaquoi will hook up in the passing game, and Georgia's defense, which will get baptized by fire here, should be just good enough to win at home. This one might be even more dangerous for UGA than Cal is for Tennessee, because at least the Vols know what they're getting into. Don't be fooled into thinking this is anything resembling an easy win for Georgia - I think Okie State will take them to the wire. But it's a win nonetheless.
Georgia 27 - Oklahoma State 24
#18 Auburn vs. Kansas State - 7:45 PM - ESPN
Why Kansas State could win: reasons are harder to come by here, though KSU QB Josh Freeman has the potential to be a star after leading the Wildcats down the stretch last year, including the upset win over Texas. The defense is adequate, the running game is experienced but needs improvement, but Kansas State lacks the same raw talent and explosiveness that Oklahoma State has, and Auburn's defense is better than Georgia's. So, in the final hurrah for Brandon Cox and Carl Stewart, Auburn should be able to get off to a good start here. It's not a gimmie, but Auburn, at home, should have more than enough for the Wildcats. It's the one next week with South Florida that you've got to worry about more.
Auburn 28 - Kansas State 14
#12 California vs. #15 Tennessee - 8:00 PM - ABC
It's interesting to try and project how last year's 35-18 drubbing in Knoxville will affect both teams. I'm sure Cal has been pointing to this one all offseason, but some of that is negated by the fact that the Bears are six point favorites, which will serve to motivate Tennessee in similar fashion. I do think that if Tennessee can jump on Cal early, the Bears will fall right back into panic mode - none of Cal's big victories, including the big bowl win over Texas A&M, have fallen into that elite category that will give them the "been there done that" confidence to effectively bounce back against the Vols if they get behind.
So while a lot of this will be between the ears stuff, between the lines you've got a Cal team that's experienced and explosive, especially on offense. Nate Longshore, Justin Forsett, and DeSean Jackson - even though none of them played particularly well against Tennessee - are all all-conference candidates. Jackson especially has the look and the sound of a future NFL star, but until he proves it on the field against a team like Tennessee, he hasn't earned the right to talk the way he does. The problem there may be Tennessee's secondary - Jackson won't be facing Jonathan Wade, Inky Johnson, Demetrice Morley, Antwan Stewart or even Roshaun Fellows. Instead, Antonio Gaines, Marsalous Johnson, and the young stud Eric Berry will get a look at stopping Jackson. Berry has absolutely lived up to his billing as the best incoming defensive back in college football all throughout fall practice, but once again, until you see it on the field, you question it . The lone bright spot in the secondary is preseason All-American Jonathan Hefney at free safety, who needs to make plays.
The rest of the defense must stop the run - the LB corps appears solid, and I believe in at least the potential of Antonio Reynolds, Demonte Bolden, JT Mapu and Xavier Mitchell on the line. Forsett isn't a bruiser at 5'8" 185, so the Vols need to bruise him. Tennessee defenses have a tendency to not disappoint, no matter the personel. So until proven otherwise, I'll take my chances with our defense.
Cal's biggest question mark is its defensive front seven, which lost DT Brandon Mebane and LB Desmond Bishop, and returns only two starters. The Vols m-u-s-t exploit this and run the football effectively to win. They've preached it and practiced it, they've got the horses in the backfield, and the offensive line should be ready. If Tennessee can control the line of scrimmage and not turn it over, we'll all breathe easier. Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty need to have big days and wear this defense out.
When the Vols do have to go to the air, you trust David Cutcliffe and you probably trust Erik Ainge at this point, but my question is this: if the Vols are down four with 2:00 to play and 80 yards in front of them, do they have the playmakers to make it happen? Regardless of what I've said about him before, I think Austin Rogers will end up being just fine, in a Craig Faulkner mold, but someone else has to emerge or the Vols will go nowhere all year. We keep hearing about Lucas Taylor, now it's time to see it. We keep hearing about these freshmen - and the reality may be that 2008 is the real year to expect something from these guys - but any positive contributions would be welcome.
At the end of the day, as usual, it's going to take a solid effort on both sides of the ball to win this one. This may turn into one of those "the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win" games, though I don't anticipate Tennessee's offense being too risky in that department, and we've seen firsthand that Longshore can be rattled. If we have to do it old school, with 45 rushing attempts and south of 200 passing yards and eat up the clock, that's just fine with me. I don't believe for a second that Cal's talent is six points better than us, I'd call it an even matchup. And even if I was completely unbiased, I'd say that until you see that Cal is capable of winning a game like this, you don't pick them, even at home, against a team that's proven time and again that they can get it done. Since I am biased, I'll throw in that the last time the Vols played on ABC was 2003 at Miami, and the last time the Vols opened on the road at 1998 at Syracuse. And those turned out alright.
Tennessee 24 - California 21
#1 Southern Cal vs. Idaho - 10:15 PM - Fox Sports Net
The obligatory #1 team in the nation pick, giving you all a chance to pick the upset...Idaho lost Dennis Erickson, return 14 starters from a 4-8 team last year that finished 6th in the mighty WAC, and it's too bad they aren't playing this game at home in the 16,000 capacity Kibbie Dome, where the rocking atmosphere might be enough to make you think upset. Instead, it's in LA, and Southern Cal will get to feel all good about themselves. The only real bad news for the Trojans here is that this one probably won't be an adequate tune-up before they take next week off, then head to Nebraska on the 15th. We'll see...
Southern Cal 63 - Idaho 7
Monday, September 3 - Labor Day
Clemson vs. #19 Florida State - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bowden Bowl IX will feature the Tigers going for their third straight in the series and fourth in the last five years. So there will be no intimidation factor when the Noles come rolling into Death Valley, SC. Clemson has a terrible habit of doing the exact opposite of what I pick them to do, so read on and then don't take my advice. James Davis and CJ Spiller are back in the Tiger backfield, and new QB Cullen Harper is the new face under center. The Tigers were very one dimensional last year - 5th nationally in rush offense, 67th in pass offense - and without Chansi Stuckey the receiving game may be in even worse shape this year. The Tigers are also breaking in four new starters on the offensive line. The news is a little better on defense, even though Gaines Adams is playing in the NFL now. Six starters return, two in each unit. And Jad Dean finally graduated after a dozen years at Clemson, so they'll be breaking in a new kicker.
And then there's Florida State. The Noles are ranked because they're Florida State, much like the Vols slipping in the preseason poll last year. And because they're Florida State, they do have talent - De'Cody Fagg and Greg Carr (6'6") are solid WR options, and there's a lot of potential in RB Antone Smith. But the offense will once again come down to the Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee question, which has gone on for way too long and may continue to haunt FSU. The defense is a Florida State defense, which will be as good and as fast as you'd expect. Eight starters return, including the entire defensive line, which is trouble for Davis and Spiller. And Chuck Amato is back on staff, bringing his mafia tactics to the LB corps once more.
Remember the Labor Day game last year between the Noles and Miami, and how ugly it was? Better get used to it - FSU's defense will be tough to score on all year, and their offense will probably continue to struggle. Clemson is the home dog in this case, but I like their atmosphere and their talent to pull them through. Florida State has been too uncertain for me in the last two years, so I'm not picking them to go on the road in the opener and beat a team that none of the current players have handled well in the past. Clemson, ugly but effective.
Clemson 20 - Florida State 17
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 1. Tennessee
1. TennesseeWell, we've maxed this thing out - here on the day before the college football season kicks off, when I'm most likely to tell you with a straight face that the Vols will win the National Championship, we reach the end of our countdown. From the beginning, we've said that these rankings are not an indication of who's the most talented in the college football world (see the "If I had a vote in the AP Top 25" portion of the next post), but a best-guess on how I think/hope things will turn out in the final poll in January. So here we are.
It's interesting just to look at that up there - "1. Tennessee" - and then to wonder if it's actually, really possible. During this week last year, I discussed the ways the 2005 season had potentially cracked even the thickest orange-tinted glasses, only to have Bruce Pearl come along and repair our optimism. And so today, it remains fact that there's no one - and I mean no one - on the 2007 schedule that the Vols aren't capable of beating. Six point underdogs at California and whatever the Vegas oddsmakers set the line at in three weeks in Gainesville...while it is certainly more optimistic than realistic to think the Vols will go undefeated, it is still quite realistic to say that at this university, we still expect championships, and we still expect to win everytime out. And the talent in Knoxville is still good enough to make it happen.
In Phillip Fulmer's tenure, he's 137-41 (.769). Of those 41 losses as he begins his 16th year, I can think of four of them where, when the game was over, you left shaking your head and thinking "those guys were just better than us." The 94 Florida game with Jerry Colquitt hurt and Todd Helton running the offense when the Gators were #1 (31-0 Florida), the Nebraska Orange Bowl at the end of the 97 season, where the Vols learned the lessons needed to win it all the next year (42-17 Nebraska), the 02 Miami game, with the Vols decimated by injuries and the Canes ranked #1 (26-3 Miami), and the first 04 Auburn game, where the true freshmen in orange were rudely awakened in the first half by the eventual SEC Champions, though Tennessee went play-for-play with them, for the most part, three months later (34-10 Auburn). You can talk about what's acceptable and what's not at the end of the season, but you can't judge that very well in August - 10-2 with losses to Cal and an upset that turns into an SEC Championship looks much different than 10-2 with losses to Florida and Alabama. And I've always said that any year that ends in Atlanta is successful, and even not finishing there doesn't mean it wasn't a good year. But no matter how you slice it, optimistic or pessimistic, Tennessee is really capable of beating everyone they play.
Having a senior quarterback is always helpful in the SEC. Having one who's never had his hands on a championship - Ainge was hurt when the Vols played Auburn in the 04 SEC Championship, and still hurt in the big Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M - might be even better. The legacy of
Erik Ainge will be finished this year. Right now it's still full of potential, and if things go north this year, he could finish among the five most memorable quarterbacks in Tennessee history. If things go south, he'll take a lot of the blame the way quarterbacks do, and he won't even be remembered as fondly as Casey Clausen, who's already the most underrated Vol of my lifetime. Ainge has the tools and showed last year he has the poise. Now, he'll have to do it without Meachem, Swain and Smith.
I like what I read about Austin Rogers, but you can see the problems with that. I also know that I saw him in person twice while broadcasting Alcoa High School's football games when he was at David Lipscomb, and I couldn't believe Tennessee was actually recruiting him, which says a lot about a lot of things, including my judgement and the fickle world of recruiting. But outside of Rogers, you've got players who've never stepped up, and a bunch of young kids. We've all read the hype about Kenny O'Neal, Brent Vinson, Gerald Jones, Ahmad Paige, and Denarius Moore. But hype must become reality, and will it become reality in 2007 is a key question. It's dangerous to assume greatness for players you've never seen, but they'll have the blessing and the curse of the opportunity of instant playing time. We'll see.
We do know about Arian Foster, Montario Hardesty, and LaMarcus Coker when he's on the field. The Vols can run, and they'll get the chance to do it more this year. The offensive line appears to have come together, and has some award candidates in Eric Young and Josh McNeil. Most of the unit is experienced, and it should run about eight deep. The offense may not become one of the all-time greats at Tennessee, but it can and should be sufficient.
The defense is full of even more mystery. Antonio Reynolds and Xavier Mitchell appear to be solid ends, but it's questionable in the middle with JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden. That could be good questionable or bad questionable, and against some quality running backs the Vols will need to live up to their "you will not run on us" standards of years past. The linebackers are there, with Rico McCoy, Jerod Mayo, and Ryan Karl. Jonathan Hefney has been great for four years now all over the secondary. Eric Berry might be the second coming. Other than that, you've got guys who've never played under the lights before as starters in Antonio Gaines, Marsalous Johnson, and Jarrod Parrish. They must produce, and must be effective early against DeSean Jackson and Percy Harvin. John Chavis defenses typically overachieve and do not disappoint. I expect more of the same in 2007, and as the young guys grow up and the inexperienced become less so, I think you'll find that this defense has a chance to be really good.
And though this isn't a year where we'll say "he's the best player on our team" which probably happened twice with his brother, Britton Colquitt - sans quad injury - is a weapon. And whether it's him or Daniel Lincoln that's kicking field goals, every point counts.
It'll be these men against this test:
2007 Tennessee Schedule
09/01 - at California
09/08 - vs Southern Miss
09/15 - at Florida
09/22 - vs Arkansas State
09/29 - off week
10/06 - vs Georgia
10/13 - at Mississippi State
10/20 - at Alabama
10/27 - vs South Carolina
11/03 - vs Louisiana-Lafayette
11/10 - vs Arkansas
11/17 - vs Vanderbilt
11/24 - at Kentucky
Final Analysis
Once again, this is Tennessee - we're good enough to get the job done. The Cal breakdown is coming in the next post. Southern Miss cannot be taken lightly and has tested the Vols and beaten others in years past. This is a great year to catch Florida early, while they're breaking in nine new defensive starters. Georgia has won in Knoxville three straight and everytime this decade, which the Vols must do something about. Nick Saban is 2-1 against Fulmer, and the last thing the Vols need is to give Alabama some breathing room or an idea that we don't own them (Vols 10 of 12 since 1995 against the Tide). You know about Steve Spurrier, but this year he's bringing a defense with him. And you know about Arkansas and Darren McFadden, who took the Vols' manhood last year in Fayetteville, and the return match could have championship implications in mid-November. Vanderbilt is better. Kentucky is better. Both would rather beat us than anyone else. Survive all that, and you'll likely get the best team in the conference in Atlanta seven days later, who could be thinking about their own title. Survive that, you'll have earned your way - if you can win the SEC, you can beat anybody. Ask Ohio State.
This, of course, could all go kaput in three days. A prediction like this isn't made so I can come back in January and say "I'm a genius!" if it actually happens, because if I did a piece like this every year I'd continue to put Tennessee at the top as long as the Vols continue to field talent capable of winning every game they play. If things do go south, the perspective that's lacking here needs to be remembered quickly. Losing to Cal will hurt in more ways than one, but if that happens, it's very important to remember that Cal doesn't play in the SEC, and that slate will still be clean. Losing an SEC game along the way doesn't eliminate you from contention - this year more than ever, the most important games for Tennessee are Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina - you run the table in your own division, you're in great shape.
I've made this point a million times on this blog, made it last year a bunch...but I'll close with it again for this year. The SEC is the best conference in the country for a reason. When you look at a schedule that doesn't even include LSU or Auburn, there are five teams on Tennessee's talent level among SEC foes. There are plenty of people picking Kentucky to upset the Vols to make six. And oh yeah, California would make seven. There's no such thing as a sure win anymore. But there's also no such thing as sure dominance in this conference. LSU could lose five or six games the same way the Vols could. The SEC is good enough to beat you every single week. But Tennessee is still good enough to beat it back every single Saturday, one at a time. That's what makes it so difficult, and so special. Every game counts, every play counts. What happens next is all the fun.
Go Vols.
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 2. Texas
2. TexasI read yesterday that Mack Brown had signed a contract extension thru something like 2017. And after years of saying otherwise, here in 2007 we can say that's a very good thing for Texas.
The Longhorns have been in the hunt almost every year this decade, and did pickup the elusive National Championship in 2005. They've also played in and won BCS bowls in 2004 and 2005. Keep in mind, however, that their neighbors in Oklahoma have won four conference titles this decade, while Texas only has one. So even though Texas has beaten OU the last two seasons in the Red River game, the Longhorns have to try and establish themselves as the decade's dominant Big 12 team before there's any talk about them being the nation's dominant team.
You can forgive the Ohio State loss last year because they were relatively young at critical positions. You can't forgive the late-season tailspin, losing to Kansas State and Texas A&M in games that first cost them a potential shot at the National Championship, and then cost them the Big 12 South Division. You can also argue that the Longhorns were headed for another loss to Iowa, until Drew Tate mocked the "Hook 'em Horns" symbol after throwing a TD pass, and woke up the Horns in what became a 26-24 victory.
Fast forward to 2007. The Horns are a year older and have all the weapons you could ask for on offense - QB Colt McCoy is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and RB Jamaal Charles and WR
Limas Sweed could easily earn All-Big 12. The offensive line, which will replace its entire interior, needs to come together to make the whole package run. But there's little doubt that Texas will again put up big numbers - the Horns were 6th nationally in scoring offense last year at 35.9 PPG, and should see similar numbers in 2007.
On defense, it's a mixed bag. The defensive line, especially the tackles, should be great with Frank Okam and Derek Lokey anchoring the middle. The linebackers should also be set, with Robert Killebrew and Rashad Bobino returning. The secondary sent Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin to the first round of the NFL Draft, so there's work to be done there. Surprisingly, the Longhorns were 99th nationally against the pass last year. That's bad news.
But it's not an abundance of talent or experience that's landed the Longhorns at #2 on this poll. It's the schedule:
2007 Texas Schedule
09/01 - vs Arkansas State
09/08 - vs TCU
09/15 - at Central Florida
09/22 - vs Rice
09/29 - vs Kansas State
10/06 - vs Oklahoma (at Dallas)
10/13 - at Iowa State
10/20 - at Baylor
10/27 - vs Nebraska
11/03 - at Oklahoma State
11/10 - vs Texas Tech
11/17 - off week
11/23 - at Texas A&M (Friday)
Final Analysis
Of all the potential National Championship contenders, Texas has the easiest road to an undefeated season, and it's not even close. They'll try and tell you to watch out for TCU, but I'm not buying that. The upsets that dogged this team last year won't happen in 2007 because the players are still more talented and a year more experienced. Even their most difficult opposite division game, Nebraska, is in Austin.
So once more, it's a one game season in the making: if Texas beats Oklahoma, they'll be in great shape. And after half a decade of picking Oklahoma and being right, things have swung the other way. If you like offense, you pick Texas. If you like defense, you pick Oklahoma. When the two are about even, as they appear to be this year, you give the edge to Texas to make it three in a row.
If the Horns win that one, it should be all the incentive they need to finish 12-0. That would send them to the Big 12 Championship Game with the North Team of the Moment, probably Nebraska, where the Horns would again be massively favored. I'm taking Texas to win the Big 12, and to be sitting pretty at 13-0 when the bowls are selected. With only two projected undefeate teams, that'll be more than enough to get them to New Orleans and a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. No team has an easier road to glory, and no team will be better at capitalizing on it.
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 3. LSU
3. LSULife is tough for Les Miles - and he certainly doesn't make it easy on himself with some of the things he says. In two seasons at LSU, Miles is 22-4 as the head coach, yet the shadow of Nick Saban still looms large because the Tigers keep losing the big ones. Not all the big ones, mind you, but just enough of them to keep them out of the National Championship picture. And in those two seasons, LSU has one division title and two dominant bowl performances. Which is really good, but it's not good enough. Not yet. And now that Saban's back in the SEC, Miles finds himself with the warmest 22-4 seat in college football history. Saban's players have graduated or left for the NFL, for the most part. This is Miles team now in year three. And they're expected to be the best non-USC team in the nation, playing in the nation's most difficult conference. And oh yeah, they'll be the bad guys across from Virginia Tech in two weeks. Good luck, boys.
The four losses the Tigers have taken in the last two years have all seemed preventable. The first was The Rally at Death Valley, where Tennessee came from down 21-0 to win 30-27 in OT. The second is the most inexplicable, the 2005 SEC Championship Game against Georgia, where the Dawgs routed the favored Tigers 34-14. Last year, LSU lost to Auburn 7-3 in an ugly affair, then self-destructed in The Swamp for a 23-10 loss. Surrounding those heartbreakers have been big wins - they beat Florida, Auburn, and undefeated Alabama in 2005, hammered Miami in the Chick-fil-A Bowl 40-3, and then last year erased those 4th quarter demons in a 28-24 win in Knoxville, ended Arkansas' national title hopes in Little Rock, and busted Notre Dame 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl. You take the good with the bad.
Some of that good is QB Matt Flynn, who was the MVP of the aforementioned 40-3 spanking of Miami two years ago. With JaMarcus Russell holding out in Oakland and Ryan Perrilloux in the doghouse, the team is Flynn's for the moment, and the moment is good. Even with the departure of RB Alley Broussard, Keiland Williams and Charles Scott are capable ballcarriers, and Early Doucet is a go-to receiver. Both tackles and the center return on the offensive line, as does guard Will Arnold, who missed most of last year with injury.
LSU's defense was 4th in scoring and 3rd in total defense in 2006, and even without LaRon Landry in the secondary, the Tigers should be full speed ahead in 200. It starts with Tyson 
Jackson and Glenn Dorsey on the defensive line, who's over there in one of the best pictures I've found. Dorsey is NFL-ready right now, but chose to stick around for his senior season. The linebackers are experienced as well, led by Ali Highsmith. And Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon return as shutdown corners to bolster the secondary. This defense is big, fast, and will be tough to score on like Bo Pelini defenses usually run.
Colt David returns to handle the kicking duties, and don't forget about the 5'5", 159 lbs. Trindon Holliday as the specialist kick returner. Lindy's says he doesn't play more for fear of getting hurt, and I'd say that's about right. But he broke Arkansas' back last year with a 92 yard kick return for a TD, and with the new kickoff rules will have more chances to do the same in 2007.
2007 LSU Schedule
08/30 - at Mississippi State (Thursday)
09/08 - vs Virginia Tech
09/15 - vs MTSU
09/22 - vs South Carolina
09/29 - at Tulane
10/06 - vs Florida
10/13 - at Kentucky
10/20 - vs Auburn
10/27 - off week
11/03 - at Alabama
11/10 - vs Louisiana Tech
11/17 - at Ole Miss
11/23 - vs Arkansas (Friday)
Final Analysis
When you look at LSU's offense, it really doesn't look as threatening as Florida's or even Arkansas', and it makes you question if this is really such a clear-cut choice for the second best team in the nation. The defense will fill the gap, as will as favorable of a schedule as the SEC can deal out - the Tigers miss Tennessee and Georgia from the East, and play all their big games at home, with the exception of the Les Miles vs. Nick Saban game in Tuscaloosa, which comes favorably after an off week.
LSU is the first of three teams I'm picking to run the regular season table. As stated, I think they're too much for Virginia Tech to handle in Baton Rouge. The South Carolina game could be a big trap game, but I still think they win that one. Again at home, they'll get Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas. And even though Saban's still the better coach until proven otherwise, they'll beat Alabama because they'll be charged and ready to do so. There's just not that one road landmine for them to trip up on. So the Tigers will be 12-0 and heading to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, and probably ranked #1 when they get there. Won't that be fun...
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 4. Virginia Tech
4. Virginia TechThe Hokies will be America's Team early, no doubt. But the rise and fall of their season will still probably come down to the second week, under the lights at Baton Rouge. If VT wins there, no matter the mystique or talent of this team, they'll be capable of beating anybody. And if they lose there, no matter the mystique or the talent of this team, they're still not going to get the national elite respect that the fanbase here in southwestern Virginia so desperately want. It's as simple as that.
When VT had its most successful season in 2000, the face of that story was Michael Vick. Oops. Now that the Hokies would just as soon disassociate with #7 (and, in a twisted way, the shootings story will prevent GameDay and others from speaking heavily of Vick's influence and star power in Blacksburg and the surrounding area, which was/is very heavy), they'll have to answer the questions and play with the strength and pressure the presumed magical season everyone expects them to deliver.
And for the Hokies, it starts with QB Sean Glennon. No single player in America on an elite team will have more to do with that team's success or failure than Glennon. And what I mean by that is this: if you took the starting quarterback from any of the other Top 15 teams on this blog and put him under center in Blacksburg, the Hokies would be a preseason Top 5 team in both polls. VT has the running back in Branden Ore. They have the receivers in Josh Morgan and Eddie Royal. They return three starters on the offensive line.
The defense last year? First in scoring (11.0 points per game allowed). First in pass defense
So it all comes back to Glennon. Last year, he single-handedly gave the Chick-fil-A Bowl to Georgia in the second half when Tech was cruising. He's the poster boy for "don't get us beat!" And once again, you'll find out right away - if Glennon can survive Death Valley, he can carry the Hokies to the promised land. As America's Team, winning the ACC or winning it all wouldn't be a cinderella story, it would be a quarterback becoming the leader his team needs to become the final piece of the puzzle.
2007 Virginia Tech Schedule
09/01 - vs East Carolina
09/08 - at LSU
09/15 - vs Ohio
09/22 - vs William & Mary
09/29 - vs North Carolina
10/06 - at Clemson
10/13 - at Duke
10/20 - off week
10/25 - vs Boston College (Thursday)
11/01 - at Georgia Tech (Thursday)
11/10 - vs Florida State
11/17 - vs Miami
11/24 - at Virginia
Final Analysis
The schedule is in two parts, before and after the off week. Beforehand the emphasis will be on Death Valley early, and then a trip to Clemson, who the Hokies ruined last year in Blacksburg. Of course, Hokie Nation wants to win them all, but if they make it to later October having only lost to LSU, they'll be in great shape. After the off week, it's the gauntlet - the Hokies are capable of getting beat all five games, including the don't-sleep-on-it in-state battle with Virginia in Charlottesville to close the regular season. If they win their division, they'd make it a six game gauntlet in the ACC Championship Game.
The pieces are in place if Glennon grows up. And as I've told people up here and wrote above, beat LSU, get all the respect you want. But it's not going to happen. Death Valley is hard to win for SEC foes; for Virginia Tech, who, bless their hearts, don't know much about playing in front of 90plusthousand on a Saturday night. You can't imitate what you see in the SEC on the road. VT can't duplicate it because they lack the manpower in Blacksburg. And playing with the weight of the world usually doesn't work out - LSU blew a 21 point lead over the Vols post-Katrina, the Yankees lost Game Seven of the World Series post-9/11, and the Hokies simply aren't good enough or expereinced enough to walk into Baton Rouge and win, in what will probably be a 14-13 game.
But they're going to win the rest of them. Glennon will be just fine eventually, and there's no one in the ACC that's going to have enough to take out this Hokie team. The experience and the emotional push will help them avoid the upset, and even taking all emotion out of the equation, they're the best team in the ACC. The Hokies will win their division, then beat Clemson again to finish 12-1 and win the ACC. That'll earn them a spot in the Orange Bowl and a chance to meet their old friends West Virginia. And they'll win again.
Virginia Tech is capable of winning them all, LSU included, even though I don't think they will. Either way, it should be a special season in Blacksburg.
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 5. California
5. CaliforniaThe Bears serve a lot of purposes here at #5, four days before kickoff. So you could call this a scouting report, or you could call this proof that, no matter what I say during the emotionally-charged gameweek, I'm not underestimating Cal. And I promise you I'm not the only Vol fan or expert on board that ship.
Talent is unquestioned with the Golden Bears, especially with RB Justin Forsett and WR DeSean Jackson. It's the ability to win the big game that's haunted them (see today's column from John Adams in the Knoxville News-Sentinel). Last year, ranked 9th in the preseason AP poll and picked by Lee Corso to win the National Championship, on a team that was more talented than this one and featured Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Mebane, Desmond Bishop and Daymeion Hughes, the Bears rolled into Knoxville and were down 35-0 midway through the third quarter. One big play turned into four - the Vols scored 4 TDs in a span of 7 offensive snaps - and Cal had nothing left to stop the bleeding. The Bears rebounded well, as a well coached team will do, and were rolling through the Pac-10 into November. They beat Arizona State by 28, beat Oregon
Then two things happened. First they looked ahead to Southern Cal, and lost at Arizona 24-20. Then they actually played Southern Cal, and once again forgot how to play football against the Trojans: a team that was averaging 35 points a game scored 9 at Southern Cal, and lost all hopes of making the BCS. The Bears rebounded again in the Holiday Bowl, destroying Texas A&M 45-10 to finish 10-3.
So that brings us to 2007. Nate Longshore is a year older, Justin Forsett becomes the feature back, and DeSean Jackson is showing up on Heisman lists. The defense is more questionable, without the 06 anchors at all three position units, though still pretty solid in the secondary. And the schedule will once more afford them an opportunity to make noise right away:
2007 California Schedule
09/01 - vs Tennessee
09/08 - at Colorado State
09/15 - vs Louisiana Tech
09/22 - vs Arizona
09/29 - at Oregon
10/06 - off week
10/13 - vs Oregon State
10/20 - at UCLA
10/27 - at Arizona State
11/03 - vs Washington State
11/10 - vs Southern Cal
11/17 - at Washington
11/24 - off week
12/01 - at Stanford
Final Analysis
Alright, so you've figured out by now that I'm not picking Cal to beat the Vols. I don't understand, all due respect, why a team that lost as much as Cal did and lost the way they did to the Vols last year, is such a sure-thing six point favorite - I've seen one "expert", Mark May, pick the Vols to beat Cal.
From there, you already know they can pick up the pieces. And this time around, even with less raw talent, I don't think they'll make the same mistakes. That doesn't mean they'll necessarily go 11-1. They still could slip up against a rising Pac-10 schedule. But I do think they'll beat Southern Cal this year, playing at home. And I think the game with UCLA will actually be the one that ends up deciding the Pac-10, which the Bears will also win. So even the early loss to the Vols or one additional stumble along the way, I'm taking Cal to win the Pac-10.
The Penn State vs. California projected Rose Bowl matchup you probably won't find anywhere else - though both Corso and Herbstreit also picked PSU to win the Big 10 - but I like the Golden Bears in that contest as well. By January, this will be one of the five best teams in America, and this should be the year that Jeff Tedford takes the program to the next level, and brings home a conference championship and a BCS win. It's just that their ascent to the top will have to wait until after September 1.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Random Thoughts - Monday August 27
Let's talk about something besides Michael Vick, hooray!
Five Days to Kickoff
Or three days if you like your football LSU/Mississippi State style. Or four days if you'd like to see Alcoa and Maryville in Tennessee's best high school football rivalry (though AHS kicked off in a rain-shortened 21-0 win at Spring Hill last Friday).
The Vols have reinstated LaMarcus Coker, but he won't be making the trip to Cal. The Vols will be looking for, and hopefully finding some, answers at wide receiver, but there's really no point in writing anything more about those guys until we actually see them. Britton Colquitt's leg keeps healing. Eric Berry keeps pressing the first string depth chart. And this is the week, my friends, when I will fully convince myself that the Vols will win the National Championship (as you'll see when we finish the SESB Preseason Top 25 over the next three days). In college, they used to tell us that we could make an argument that the sky was green, as long as the argument was solid. The week before the season starts, my delusions of grandeur are about as solid as they'll ever be.
Meanwhile, lost in the football shuffle...
The Braves are on life support
And the first victim is Bob Wickman, who got the guillotine after picking up an extra innings loss on the road trip that continues tonight, as a three game set begins in Florida. When the Braves score 7 runs, they give up 9. When the pitching is solid, they can't hit. And instead of closing on the Mets while the schedule was in Atlanta's favor, the Braves woke up this morning and checked the paper to find themselves seven games back in the NL East, and four games back in the NL Wild Card race that's suddenly being dominated by San Diego.
It's not over - the Braves do play at Florida (the worst team in the NL) for three this week while the Mets and Phillies play each other in Philadelphia. So if Atlanta takes care of business in Miami, they're going to gain ground on somebody. Then the real test comes over the weekend, when New York comes to Atlanta for three, followed by the Phillies and Nationals in ATL for three, followed by three more at Shea. But we've run out of room for error.
The pitching staff, outside of Smoltz and Hudson, has regressed over the course of the year - it hasn't been just Wickman. Mike Gonzalez is hurt, Rafael Soriano has gone from potential all-star to huge liability, Chuck James is currently on the DL, there's no timetable for Octavio Dotel's return, and when the starting rotation currently includes Jo-Jo Reyes (0-2, 8.31) and Lance Cormier (0-4, 9.00), you can see why we've got a problem.
But it's not over yet. With 31 games to play, the time continues to be now.
John Cena is still the champ
And I'm still not paying to watch that.
Five Days to Kickoff
Or three days if you like your football LSU/Mississippi State style. Or four days if you'd like to see Alcoa and Maryville in Tennessee's best high school football rivalry (though AHS kicked off in a rain-shortened 21-0 win at Spring Hill last Friday).
The Vols have reinstated LaMarcus Coker, but he won't be making the trip to Cal. The Vols will be looking for, and hopefully finding some, answers at wide receiver, but there's really no point in writing anything more about those guys until we actually see them. Britton Colquitt's leg keeps healing. Eric Berry keeps pressing the first string depth chart. And this is the week, my friends, when I will fully convince myself that the Vols will win the National Championship (as you'll see when we finish the SESB Preseason Top 25 over the next three days). In college, they used to tell us that we could make an argument that the sky was green, as long as the argument was solid. The week before the season starts, my delusions of grandeur are about as solid as they'll ever be.
Meanwhile, lost in the football shuffle...
The Braves are on life support
And the first victim is Bob Wickman, who got the guillotine after picking up an extra innings loss on the road trip that continues tonight, as a three game set begins in Florida. When the Braves score 7 runs, they give up 9. When the pitching is solid, they can't hit. And instead of closing on the Mets while the schedule was in Atlanta's favor, the Braves woke up this morning and checked the paper to find themselves seven games back in the NL East, and four games back in the NL Wild Card race that's suddenly being dominated by San Diego.
It's not over - the Braves do play at Florida (the worst team in the NL) for three this week while the Mets and Phillies play each other in Philadelphia. So if Atlanta takes care of business in Miami, they're going to gain ground on somebody. Then the real test comes over the weekend, when New York comes to Atlanta for three, followed by the Phillies and Nationals in ATL for three, followed by three more at Shea. But we've run out of room for error.
The pitching staff, outside of Smoltz and Hudson, has regressed over the course of the year - it hasn't been just Wickman. Mike Gonzalez is hurt, Rafael Soriano has gone from potential all-star to huge liability, Chuck James is currently on the DL, there's no timetable for Octavio Dotel's return, and when the starting rotation currently includes Jo-Jo Reyes (0-2, 8.31) and Lance Cormier (0-4, 9.00), you can see why we've got a problem.
But it's not over yet. With 31 games to play, the time continues to be now.
John Cena is still the champ
And I'm still not paying to watch that.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 6. Florida
6. FloridaThe defending National Champions are a tale of two cities here in August 2007, where it's the best of times on offense - at least that's what they want you think about Tim Tebow - and it's the worst of times on defense - and at least that's what they want you think by underestimating them. One thing's for sure - there will be no more questions about Urban Meyer's ability to win a big game or two, and there are plenty of faces in Gainesville who know what it's like to make the right plays at the right time to stay on that championship drive. With three straight major national championships in two sports at Florida, it would be unwise to lower your defenses and expectations when it comes to the 07 Gators.
One thing, however, is for sure - and it's a testament to the strength of the SEC: Florida didn't win it all last year because they were so much more talented than everybody else. They were simply better at the right time, and better at the right time more often than anyone else. The Gators beat Tennessee in Knoxville by one point where an intentional grounding penalty helped seal it, trailed at home against Alabama in the 4th quarter before ultimately winning, watched LSU completely self-destruct the way they tend to do against the Gators, lost at Auburn, beat Georgia by seven and Vanderbilt by six, beat South Carolina by blocking a last second field goal that would've won it, and beat Florida State by seven. The Gators, to their credit, saved the best for last: a 38 point effort in the SEC Championship Game over Arkansas by 10, and the total annihilation (after the opening kickoff) of the Buckeyes for the crystal football. The Gators were and are a deserving National Champion, but they were two points away from being the third best team in the SEC East.
You make some of your own breaks and your own luck, but some of it simply falls your way. Florida got more than enough of it last year, and deservedly so against the nation's most difficult schedule. But you can't count on it this or any year, and Florida's schedule is once again deadly. So Florida will again be capable of winning the SEC and competing for the whole thing. And Florida will again be capable of losing four or five games. But that's really no different than how it was last year, or how it is for the rest of the top tier of the SEC.
What is different starts with the full reigns being given to Tim Tebow, who, as it's been said, is a better Heisman candidate than quarterback right now. Tebow's got the sizzle, now he needs the
steak - the initial test with the Vols will be huge in mid-September as the first shot to see if he can lead this high-powered offense to victory. Tebow's got the look and feel of a bigtime college football player, and I think he ultimately will be - but remember, the kid's only a sophomore and has lots of football in front of him; if it doesn't all come together immediately, it shouldn't necessarily be a total surprise.
But he will have weapons. Kestahn Moore is experienced, and he'll find his niche in the spread option. The real threats are again the deadly wide receivers, with Percy Harvin and Andre Caldwell leading the way and a wealth of other experience behind them. Florida's scheme may be easier to stop for fast SEC defenses - in the regular season against SEC foes, the most the Gators ever scored was 28 points - but it's very capable of scoring in the blink of an eye as well. Tebow is groomed for this system, and more naturally adept to it than Chris Leak was. The four returning starters on the offensive line may be the real glue that holds this whole thing together; I'd wager the Gators average more than the 22 points per game they scored against SEC regular season competition, and look more like the offense that scored 38 on Arkansas and 41 on Ohio State.
The flip side of that coin is the Gator defense, 6th in the nation last year in scoring and total defense, but breaking in nine new starters. It's a Florida defense, coached up by Charlie Strong and recruited well by Meyer, so by the end of the year I expect them to be more than adequate, with lots of young faces stepping up and Meyer unafraid to play freshmen. However, this is one of those years that it's going to be much better for a team like the Vols to catch Florida early.
Two places where there are no question marks are at one end, with Derrick Harvey, who almost stopped Ohio State's offense by himself, and at one safety, where Tony Joiner roams the field. Seven of the other nine projected starters on the depth chart are freshmen or sophomores. Those holes must be filled quickly, and Florida may not get much of a tune-up playing Western Kentucky and Troy before starting the SEC grind with the Vols and Auburn bookending a trip to Oxford in September. The talent and the speed are there. But this is a defense that can be exploited early.
The schedule is what you'd expect, which isn't good news for the young defense:
2007 Florida Schedule
09/01 - vs Western Kentucky
09/08 - vs Troy
09/15 - vs Tennessee
09/22 - at Ole Miss
09/29 - vs Auburn
10/06 - at LSU
10/13 - off week
10/20 - at Kentucky
10/27 - vs Georgia (at Jacksonville)
11/03 - vs Vanderbilt
11/10 - at South Carolina
11/17 - vs Florida Atlantic
11/24 - vs Florida State
Final Analysis
I think those who are predicting a total collapse for the Gators and their young defense are way off base - I don't think this is a team that takes a dive in games they normally win (Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt) and if they're beaten, it'll be by a top tier team with equal talent. I think Florida will handle Florida State, I think they'll take care of Spurrier's boys in Columbia, and I don't think Auburn's got what it takes to beat them in Gainesville. The two games I'd circle for them to be most vulnerable in are Tennessee and LSU. If you're looking at this from a Florida perspective, you like their chances against the Vols because it's in Gainesville, and you like their chances against LSU because the Tigers save their worst and most self-destructive football for the Gators every year - you can make the argument that Florida should've won the last three against LSU, the Tigers have played so poorly against them.
Those two, however, are the only two games I think the Gators will lose. I'm picking the Vols because that's what I do, but also because it'll be the first true test for that brand new defense, facing a senior quarterback with a loaded backfield and a solid offensive line, and Tennessee's defense has handled Meyer's spread option well, for the most part, and would've won three in a row in The Swamp if not for special teams disasters in 2005. And I'm picking LSU because I simply think they're too talented and playing at home, and Florida's defense may still not quite be up to speed by the first week in October.
A 10-2 (6-2) regular season will be very solid, though it won't be enough to get Florida back to Atlanta, and if the Vols and Tigers both have solid years, it won't be enough to get Florida in the BCS under the "only two teams per conference" rule. But if the Gators do land in Orlando, they'd be the better team there regardless of opponent, and so I'm picking an 11-2 finish and a spot just outside the Top 5. That's still a solid year, though it may not feel like it coming off a National Championship. However, this team is young - barring NFL defections, it would lose three starters on the offensive line, but aside from that, only Andre Caldwell and Tony Joiner among players with significant experience at this point. The Vols, Dawgs, and Gators should all be monstrous in 2008, which is what makes 2007 so hard to figure out along the way.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Worst. SummerSlam. Ever?
It's been ten years now that I've been following sports entertainment - my friends got me started on it after WrestleMania 13 in the spring of 1997, and while I liked it right away, it wasn't until SummerSlam 97, which is supposedly the second biggest wrestling night of the year, that I was really hooked. On that night ten years ago was the first time I saw something that I felt was truly quality product, and when you go back and look at that card - where the opening match was Triple H vs. Mick Foley (as Mankind) in a steel cage - it still stands the test of time. The Hart Foundation was in full effect, with Brian Pillman competing in his last major PPV match with Goldust, British Bulldog and Ken Shamrock colliding for the European Championship, and the night's two most famous events are still among the most important in wrestling history: the Owen Hart piledriver that almost killed Steve Austin, and the Bret Hart vs. Undertaker main event that saw Shawn Michaels (as the special guest referee) accidentally clock Taker with a chair, allowing Hart to get the pin and the win for his fifth WWE/F Championship, set up the feud between HBK and Taker that would lead to the first ever Hell in a Cell match, the formation of DX, and ultimately lead to the injury that would sideline Michaels for five years at the Royal Rumble the following January...and began the slow burn towards The Montreal Screwjob, which will be ten years old in November.
SummerSlam is important. Not just the 97 edition has shone bright through wrestling history: before my time, there was the return bout in a ladder match between Shawn Michaels and Razor Ramon, the Boiler Room Brawl between Undertaker and Mankind, and lots of Bret Hart highlights. Even the first SummerSlam had an epic main event of Hulk Hogan and Randy Savage against Andre the Giant and Ted DiBiase. The road exiting WrestleMania leads directly to SummerSlam, which usually sets the table for greatness.
Since 97, I've seen more greatness at SummerSlam. The Rock and Triple H in a ladder match for the IC belt in 98 (the infamous "Highway to Hell" SummerSlam that makes every WWE fan hate that song now). Shane McMahon taking the leap of death against Test in 99, the same night where Gov. Jesse Ventura would officiate an Austin/HHH/Foley main event. In 2000, we saw the first ever Tables, Ladders & Chairs match, the first of three classics between the Hardys, Dudleys and Edge & Christian. That same night saw another triple threat match with names that would become legends, as The Rock defeated Triple H and Kurt Angle.
SummerSlam in 2001 is known less for what happened that night and more for what happened in the weeks before, when WWE bought WCW, making SummerSlam the first time that many former WCW superstars competed in a WWE ring. And while the big guns wouldn't come WWE's way until the following years, SummerSlam '01 featured The Rock vs. Booker T, Edge vs. Lance Storm, and Undertaker/Kane vs. DDP/Kanyon, matchups that had never been seen before.
If there's one SummerSlam that I remember more fondly than 1997, it's 2002. The undercard was loaded - Kurt Angle vs. Rey Mysterio, Ric Flair vs. Chris Jericho, Edge vs. Eddie Guerrero, Rob Van Dam vs. Chris Benoit - but it was the double main event that exceeded all expectations. Shawn Michaels stepped into a WWE ring for the first time since March 1997, and then lived up to his name in an epic and emotional streetfight with Triple H, proving with no doubt that he was back. Then The Rock competed as WWE Champion and a full-time performer for the last time, passing the torch to Brock Lesnar in the main event before heading off to Hollywood. 2002 was both important and good.
I missed SummerSlam and most of wrestling in general for the next three years, but when I go back and read about the double main event in 2003 - Kurt Angle vs. Brock Lesnar for one title, and an Elimination Chamber consisting of Triple H, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, Randy Orton, Chris Jericho, and Shawn Michaels for the other (won by HHH) - it makes me wish I did see it. Many have called 2003 wrestling's best all around year.
2004 I'm glad I missed. The card was void of star power, much like today, with Rock and Austin having retired and the younger guys yet to fully emerge. The main events saw JBL beat Undertaker, and Randy Orton beat Chris Benoit. Even so, I get the feeling that the 04 card will end up being better than 07.
The last PPV I paid for before this year's WrestleMania was SummerSlam 05, to watch Shawn Michaels face Hulk Hogan. And it was highly disappointing - Hogan wouldn't sell or lose, couldn't take bumps, and Michaels did his best to carry him before ultimately losing in an unsatisfying fashion. Last year saw some quality matches, as Edge defeated John Cena in the main event, the newly reformed DX beat Vince & Shane McMahon, and Hulk Hogan competed in what so far has been his last match, beating Randy Orton.
Which brings us to this year.
The main event - John Cena, who's been champion since a little after SummerSlam a year ago - against Randy Orton, has less heat than any major PPV main event I can remember. The fans are tired of Cena but not fully behind Orton; if Cena wins people will expect it and still be relatively bored, if Orton wins I doubt he can carry it for long. The other title match features Batista vs. The Great Khali. If you make it through this one without yawning, congratulations. Even if they let Khali win to try and drag the feud out, it's got no large upscale with the fans.
The biggest reason to get "excited" about it this year is the return from injury of Triple H and Rey Mysterio, plus the teased return of Undertaker. Those three constitute roughly half of the injured WWE main event talent - with Shawn Michaels, Edge, and Bobby Lashley still on the shelf - and they'll help things overall. When this roster is at full strength, it's really not that bad, though it lacks that Hogan/Austin/Rock figure that can carry the company and the ratings by themselves. Still, this lineup feels like one of those old In Your House PPVs, except they're not building towards anything bigger, because this is it. There aren't even really any matches that lack the charisma of the fanbase but you know will deliver from a wrestling standpoint.
So I'm passing on SummerSlam - though I do expect Randy Orton to finally end Cena's reign, and am happy to see Triple H again. Hopefully, for WWE, it's all looking up from here.
SummerSlam is important. Not just the 97 edition has shone bright through wrestling history: before my time, there was the return bout in a ladder match between Shawn Michaels and Razor Ramon, the Boiler Room Brawl between Undertaker and Mankind, and lots of Bret Hart highlights. Even the first SummerSlam had an epic main event of Hulk Hogan and Randy Savage against Andre the Giant and Ted DiBiase. The road exiting WrestleMania leads directly to SummerSlam, which usually sets the table for greatness.
Since 97, I've seen more greatness at SummerSlam. The Rock and Triple H in a ladder match for the IC belt in 98 (the infamous "Highway to Hell" SummerSlam that makes every WWE fan hate that song now). Shane McMahon taking the leap of death against Test in 99, the same night where Gov. Jesse Ventura would officiate an Austin/HHH/Foley main event. In 2000, we saw the first ever Tables, Ladders & Chairs match, the first of three classics between the Hardys, Dudleys and Edge & Christian. That same night saw another triple threat match with names that would become legends, as The Rock defeated Triple H and Kurt Angle.
SummerSlam in 2001 is known less for what happened that night and more for what happened in the weeks before, when WWE bought WCW, making SummerSlam the first time that many former WCW superstars competed in a WWE ring. And while the big guns wouldn't come WWE's way until the following years, SummerSlam '01 featured The Rock vs. Booker T, Edge vs. Lance Storm, and Undertaker/Kane vs. DDP/Kanyon, matchups that had never been seen before.
If there's one SummerSlam that I remember more fondly than 1997, it's 2002. The undercard was loaded - Kurt Angle vs. Rey Mysterio, Ric Flair vs. Chris Jericho, Edge vs. Eddie Guerrero, Rob Van Dam vs. Chris Benoit - but it was the double main event that exceeded all expectations. Shawn Michaels stepped into a WWE ring for the first time since March 1997, and then lived up to his name in an epic and emotional streetfight with Triple H, proving with no doubt that he was back. Then The Rock competed as WWE Champion and a full-time performer for the last time, passing the torch to Brock Lesnar in the main event before heading off to Hollywood. 2002 was both important and good.
I missed SummerSlam and most of wrestling in general for the next three years, but when I go back and read about the double main event in 2003 - Kurt Angle vs. Brock Lesnar for one title, and an Elimination Chamber consisting of Triple H, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, Randy Orton, Chris Jericho, and Shawn Michaels for the other (won by HHH) - it makes me wish I did see it. Many have called 2003 wrestling's best all around year.
2004 I'm glad I missed. The card was void of star power, much like today, with Rock and Austin having retired and the younger guys yet to fully emerge. The main events saw JBL beat Undertaker, and Randy Orton beat Chris Benoit. Even so, I get the feeling that the 04 card will end up being better than 07.
The last PPV I paid for before this year's WrestleMania was SummerSlam 05, to watch Shawn Michaels face Hulk Hogan. And it was highly disappointing - Hogan wouldn't sell or lose, couldn't take bumps, and Michaels did his best to carry him before ultimately losing in an unsatisfying fashion. Last year saw some quality matches, as Edge defeated John Cena in the main event, the newly reformed DX beat Vince & Shane McMahon, and Hulk Hogan competed in what so far has been his last match, beating Randy Orton.
Which brings us to this year.
The main event - John Cena, who's been champion since a little after SummerSlam a year ago - against Randy Orton, has less heat than any major PPV main event I can remember. The fans are tired of Cena but not fully behind Orton; if Cena wins people will expect it and still be relatively bored, if Orton wins I doubt he can carry it for long. The other title match features Batista vs. The Great Khali. If you make it through this one without yawning, congratulations. Even if they let Khali win to try and drag the feud out, it's got no large upscale with the fans.
The biggest reason to get "excited" about it this year is the return from injury of Triple H and Rey Mysterio, plus the teased return of Undertaker. Those three constitute roughly half of the injured WWE main event talent - with Shawn Michaels, Edge, and Bobby Lashley still on the shelf - and they'll help things overall. When this roster is at full strength, it's really not that bad, though it lacks that Hogan/Austin/Rock figure that can carry the company and the ratings by themselves. Still, this lineup feels like one of those old In Your House PPVs, except they're not building towards anything bigger, because this is it. There aren't even really any matches that lack the charisma of the fanbase but you know will deliver from a wrestling standpoint.
So I'm passing on SummerSlam - though I do expect Randy Orton to finally end Cena's reign, and am happy to see Triple H again. Hopefully, for WWE, it's all looking up from here.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 7. UCLA
7. UCLAThat bear's a little too happy, don't you think?
In the college football picks pool I've been running amongst my friends for the last eight years, there are three rules I've developed that are typically rock solid:
Rule One: Never pick Vanderbilt
Rule Two: Whatever I pick Clemson to do, they'll do the opposite.
Rule Three: Never, ever pick UCLA to win a big game.
Since 2002, the Bruins are 5-14 against ranked opponents. Since winning the Pac-10 last in 1998, the Bruins have finished the season ranked only once, finishing 16th in 2005. That year was the third of the Karl Dorrell administration, who is the same man who saved the season last year by leading the Bruins in upsetting Southern Cal on the final week of the regular season. And one year later, the Bruins return 10 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense. So putting past history aside and logic on the back burner as we tend to do on this blog, we're putting the underachieving Bruins in the Top 10, and putting them there ahead of the other team from Los Angeles.
The offense will again be under the control of Ben Olson, who beat out Patrick Cowan for the
starting job after handing it to him when injured last year. The starting left tackle from last year is gone, but everyone else is back, including senior RB Chris Markey who ran for 1100 yards last year and can be the spark that makes this offense go, as a threat both running and receiving. The offense will be good, and needs to be better than last year. The 06 potential needs to become 07 results.
The defense returns ten starters from a unit that was quietly among the nation's best last year, including 9th nationally against the run, and the main reason the Bruins took down Southern Cal. They have less improving to do than the offense, but in the Pac-10, every little bit will help. But with 20 starters returning, plus the punter, now is the time for the Bruins; it won't get any better than this any time soon.
2007 UCLA Schedule
09/01 - at Stanford
09/08 - vs BYU
09/15 - at Utah
09/22 - vs Washington
09/29 - at Oregon State
10/06 - vs Notre Dame
10/13 - off week
10/20 - vs California
10/27 - at Washington State
11/03 - at Arizona
11/10 - vs Arizona State
11/17 - off week
11/24 - vs Oregon
12/01 - at Southern Cal
Final Analysis
The non-conference schedule isn't overly difficult but is still dangerous, with name opponents in BYU, at Utah, and Notre Dame. If you put the season ending Battle of LA aside - which I already picked UCLA to win - their toughest Pac-10 games (Cal, Arizona State, Oregon) are all at home, and all at favorable times on the schedule, with two of them coming after bye weeks. UCLA isn't going undefeated, and I don't think they'll win the Pac-10 (Cal). However, I think they've got the talent and the experience, and the coaching, to beat everyone else. If the Bruins make it to December 1 at 10-1, the game with Southern Cal will be for a BCS bid. And if the Bruins make it as an at-large and land, say, in the Fiesta Bowl, it'll be a nice cap to the season to win there too. No team in the country has more returning experience, that experience is talented, and playing in the Pac-10 they can get it done. The time is now.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
College Football Opening Weekend Lines
For entertainment purposes only, the week one Vegas betting lines for college football's marquee matchups:
LSU at Mississippi State - LSU by 17
Wake Forest at Boston College - Boston College by 7
Ole Miss at Memphis - Ole Miss by 3
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 3
Oklahoma State at Georgia - Georgia by 7
Kansas State at Auburn - Auburn by 14
Tennessee at California - California by 6
Florida State at Clemson - Florida State by 3
LSU at Mississippi State - LSU by 17
Wake Forest at Boston College - Boston College by 7
Ole Miss at Memphis - Ole Miss by 3
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 3
Oklahoma State at Georgia - Georgia by 7
Kansas State at Auburn - Auburn by 14
Tennessee at California - California by 6
Florida State at Clemson - Florida State by 3
Monday, August 20, 2007
This might be the saddest thing I've ever heard
From SI.com:
As if they needed any more reason to make noise, Cal will be passing out 50,000 mini-megaphones before the season opener against Tennessee at Memorial Stadium. "It's going to be loud," said DeSean Jackson. "Everyone's been waiting to play Tennessee. Just like Tupac said, it's going to be 'all eyes on me.' "
Alright, first of all...is that even legal? If they can't have cowbells at Mississippi State, why in the world are they allowed to have mini-megaphones at Cal? And second...if you need to give your fanbase megaphones to make the crowd a "factor"...let's just say I'm quite sure the Vols won't be using the words "loud" or "intimidating" when asked to describe the Memorial Stadium experience in comparison to the weekly SEC grind.
You can read more about the Bears in that SI feature. The Vols, meanwhile, will hold their final scrimmage tomorrow and look to set the depth chart and start prepping for gameweek.
12 days until we all get to stare at DeSean Jackson.
As if they needed any more reason to make noise, Cal will be passing out 50,000 mini-megaphones before the season opener against Tennessee at Memorial Stadium. "It's going to be loud," said DeSean Jackson. "Everyone's been waiting to play Tennessee. Just like Tupac said, it's going to be 'all eyes on me.' "
Alright, first of all...is that even legal? If they can't have cowbells at Mississippi State, why in the world are they allowed to have mini-megaphones at Cal? And second...if you need to give your fanbase megaphones to make the crowd a "factor"...let's just say I'm quite sure the Vols won't be using the words "loud" or "intimidating" when asked to describe the Memorial Stadium experience in comparison to the weekly SEC grind.
You can read more about the Bears in that SI feature. The Vols, meanwhile, will hold their final scrimmage tomorrow and look to set the depth chart and start prepping for gameweek.
12 days until we all get to stare at DeSean Jackson.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Preseason AP Top 25
Two weeks and counting.
Preseason AP Top 25
1. Southern Cal
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklahoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Ohio State
12. California
13. Georgia
14. UCLA
15. Tennessee
16. Rutgers
17. Penn State
18. Auburn
19. Florida State
20. Nebraska
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Hawaii
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M
Preseason AP Top 25
1. Southern Cal
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklahoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Ohio State
12. California
13. Georgia
14. UCLA
15. Tennessee
16. Rutgers
17. Penn State
18. Auburn
19. Florida State
20. Nebraska
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Hawaii
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M
Friday, August 17, 2007
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 8. Penn State
8. Penn StateThey'll talk about Michigan's talent, Wisconsin's experience, and the fact that Ohio State is THE Ohio State University...but I'm picking the fourth member of the Big 10's upper tier to win the conference title in 2007. Penn State returns just the right balance on both sides of the ball to be considered more than just an outside contender, and I think it's this returning experience, plus a schedule that brings both Wisconsin and Ohio State to Happy Valley, that will lead the way to the title.
Last year, the Nittany Lions were young, and a lot of people wrote them off when Notre Dame busted them 41-17 in week two. They got badly outplayed in the fourth quarter against Ohio State in a 28-6 loss, hung tough but loss to Michigan 17-10 and later fell to Wisconsin 13-3. But they also won the rest of them - all of the regular season games they were supposed to, plus the Outback Bowl on a momentum-changing fumble that carried over into the offseason. This team is talented, experienced, and poised to sneak up on the favorites and head for Pasadena.
Anthony Morelli is back under center, though apparently I like him more than lots of folks in Happy Valley do. The entire offense needs more pop than it carried in 2006, but you can make a solid argument that Morelli improved over the course of last year and should continue to do so. He won't have Tony Hunt to handoff to, but Austin Scott is experienced and will get the first crack with the ones.
The spark the offense is looking for should come from the wide receivers - Lindy's calls them arguably the best in Penn State history - with Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood. Throw in tight end Andrew Quarless, and you've got real weapons in a conference that usually doesn't see speed and talent at wideout like this outside of Ohio State and Michigan. The line returns its interior but will start two new tackles, but if they can hold up and Morelli can be efficient - he doesn't have to be great - Penn State will score more than the 22.3 points per game they averaged last year. Way more.
Seven starters return on offense, six on defense, including preseason All-America Dan Connor, who will move inside at linebacker to replace Paul Posluszny. The line must replace three 
starters, and in this conference the work starts up front, so the new faces plus returning end Josh Gaines will need to be strong by the end of September for the Big 10 grind. Connor and OLB Sean Lee both return, along with three solid starters in the secondary - CB Justin King, and both safeties in Anthony Scirrotto and Tony Davis. This unit was 9th in scoring defense and 15th in total defense nationally last year, and there's no reason to think they can't put up those kind of numbers again. Defense wins championships.
starters, and in this conference the work starts up front, so the new faces plus returning end Josh Gaines will need to be strong by the end of September for the Big 10 grind. Connor and OLB Sean Lee both return, along with three solid starters in the secondary - CB Justin King, and both safeties in Anthony Scirrotto and Tony Davis. This unit was 9th in scoring defense and 15th in total defense nationally last year, and there's no reason to think they can't put up those kind of numbers again. Defense wins championships.Kicker Kevin Kelly returns as well, and there's always the Joe Paterno factor...though I'm not really sure what that means or what it is. Maybe a successful year in Happy Valley in 2007 is one that keeps JoePa off the injury report.
2007 Penn State Schedule
09/01 - vs Florida International
09/08 - vs Notre Dame
09/15 - vs Buffalo
09/22 - at Michigan
09/29 - at Illinois
10/06 - vs Iowa
10/13 - vs Wisconsin
10/20 - at Indiana
10/27 - vs Ohio State
11/03 - vs Purdue
11/10 - at Temple
11/17 - at Michigan State
Final Analysis
Now, this team isn't going undefeated - there's a loss in there somewhere, at least one. But since I said previously that they catch Michigan at a good time, with two other big September games, I think they can walk into Ann Arbor and walk out winners. So even if they do fall to Ohio State, Wisconsin, or a player to be named later along the way, beating the best team in the Big 10 is a good way to win the tiebreaker. And that's exactly what I think's going to happen - this team is experienced enough to get through the regular landmines along the way (sidenote: have you seen Lou Holtz trying to make out with Notre Dame already this year? In the past week, he's called them a preseason top ten team, said that Michigan beating them would be a monumental upset, and has picked hard against Tennessee twice, against Cal and Florida. Mark May, on the other hand, picked the Vols in both contests. But that's later...point being, Penn State could/should/will crush Notre Dame in the return match in Happy Valley. Good luck, Jimmy Clausen.)
Penn State isn't ranked higher because I think they'll lose in the Rose Bowl to the Pac-10 Champion. But all in all, winning the conference title from the outside darkhorse position would be a great accomplishment for JoePa and the Nittany Lions this year. And this team is still ridiculously young - they start all seniors in the backfield, but other than that, it's only RG John Shaw and Dan Connor. Penn State could still be around for as long as JoePa can make it...
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Personal Shameless Plug - College Football Picks
Long before I started writing this blog, I've been running a college football picks pool amongst my friends for the last eight years. As I've moved to Virginia, I've lost contact with some people who used to take part in that pool but still read this blog. Or there may be other friends of mine who read the blog but have never played the college picks before, but are interested in doing so. So if you fall into either of those two categories and I haven't already sent you the information, and you'd like to pick this year, you can send me an email at WillVols7@comcast.net and I'll put you on the mailing list. The picks will not be posted on this blog since it remains a more personal and "members-only" situation. Sorry kids.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
SESB Preseason Top 25 - 9. Michigan
9. Michigan
How quickly things can change at a five-star program like Michigan. In 2005, the Wolverines came into the season with high expectations, then lost three of its first six. And it could've been worse - Michigan beat Michigan State and Iowa in overtime, and beat Penn State on the last play of the game. Just when it looked like things had turned about, Michigan lost to Ohio State (again) and lost to Nebraska in the Alamo Bowl. Lloyd Carr was on the hot seat, and I predicted the 2006 season would be his last.
Then Carr took the flames under his chair and turned them loose on the college football world. They dusted Top 5 Notre Dame 47-21 in South Bend (which is why Mike Hart looks so happy).
They handed Wisconsin what would become their only loss of the season 27-13. They busted Michigan State 31-13. They won at Happy Valley, and turned away Iowa. And by late October, ESPN was running an Armageddon graphic for the Michigan-Ohio State showdown, which would become a 1 vs. 2 epic.
Then things changed again. Michigan had played well on defense all year, then gave up 42 points to Ohio State in a three point loss. Then the Wolverines still went to the Rose Bowl, though feeling that somehow they deserved a rematch with Ohio State for the National Championship, and playing a Southern Cal team that, having lost two Pac-10 games and playing outside the National Championship conversation few gave a chance against Michigan, the Wolverines took a beating in a 32-18 game that wasn't as close as the score appears. And suddenly the 11-0 start and #2 ranking the Wolverines enjoyed in mid-November was a distant memory.
So turning the page to 2007, thanks to massive losses in Columbus and the fact that Wisconsin doesn't get the same level of national respect as the boys in maize and blue, Michigan finds itself the favorite to win the Big Ten. And when you look at it on paper, this is a Top 5 talent team - Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, and Jake Long all return on an offense that brings back 7 starters in all, and will field six seniors in the starting lineup. The defense returns only four, but Shawn Crable is capable, and the Wolverines picked up the National Junior College Defensive Player of the Year in LB Austin Panter (Lindy's tells me he's the first JuCo player in a decade for Michigan). Playing in the extremely top-heavy Big Ten, you've gotta like Michigan's chances as well as anyone.
The legacies of Henne and Hart will be written in stone this year. Both have been talented since they stepped on the field, and carried the promise of championships. But during their tenure, Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State and hasn't won a bowl game. CFN has an interesting sentence: "Michigan has become the Peyton Manning of college football (before his Super Bowl)."
Among the unanimously agreed National Championship contenders - USC, LSU, Michigan, Texas, Florida, West Virginia and Oklahoma - none will field a more effective offense (on paper) than Michigan. Henne-Hart-Manningham behind a line that returns four starters gives Michigan legitimate All-America candidates at all three skill positions, and a fourth in OT Jake Long. This offense will score points, period.
Will they score enough points? Well, it's still the Big Ten, so the defense doesn't have to be exceptional if things become a grind-it-out affair every week. But Michigan's defense is probably going to end up being better than you think in August - DT Terrance Taylor joins Crable and Morgan Trent and Jamar Adams in the secondary as returning starters. Especially by season's end, I think Michigan's defense will be fine...the problem is what's coming down the pipe in September:
2007 Michigan Schedule
09/01 - vs Appalachian State
09/08 - vs Oregon
09/15 - vs Notre Dame
09/22 - vs Penn State
09/29 - at Northwestern
10/06 - vs Eastern Michigan
10/13 - vs Purdue
10/20 - at Illinois
10/27 - vs Minnesota
11/03 - at Michigan State
11/10 - at Wisconsin
11/17 - vs Ohio State
Final Analysis
Well, I'll say this...if they do manage the table run, they'll make mid November interesting with the trip to Camp Randall followed by the home date with the hated Buckeyes. Michigan has the talent to do it, too...but that's a bit too much to ask in September with the defense coming together. They are all at home, but among the dates with Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State, I think Michigan will lose one of them (and it ain't the one in the middle). From there, I still think this team is experienced enough and talented enough to pull together...I think Michigan will win the rest of them. That includes at Wisconsin, who they're just better than. And that includes beating Ohio State for the first time since 2003.
That would leave Michigan at 11-1 and in the BCS for sure, though whether or not it's as Big 10 Champions would depend on who they lost to. That will also leave them as one of those teams that's hoping no one finishes the year undefeated. But since I think there will be a clean finish this year with two undefeated teams left standing, it leaves Michigan out in the cold for the national title, and relegated to another BCS bowl. I'm picking the team you'll see next to win the Big 10, so that puts Michigan at-large in the Fiesta Bowl. And given the long bowl losing streak and the dashed hopes of playing for it all, I'm picking another Michigan bowl loss for them to end the year down here around #9. I think they're very good and will be right there at the end of the year, but one loss along the way will cost them their shot at the big prize.
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