SESB Preseason Top 25 - 14. West Virginia

14. West Virginia

You can essentially start copying and pasting "these rankings represent where I think teams will finish, not how talented they are" at the top of each new entry from this point on. Without question, West Virginia is one of the five most talented college football teams, and one of the three most talented on offense. They play in the Big East, which is getting more competitive, but the league is projected to still come down to Louisville - who we've already seen in this countdown at 17 - and West Virginia, and that game is played in Morgantown this year. Advantage: Mountaineers.

So why isn't West Virginia ranked in the top five? That answer starts with defense and ends with inevitability. Last year, the Mountaineers finished 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in rushing offense (a sick 303 yards per game), and 5th in total offense. However, they finished 49th in scoring defense, 62nd in total defense, and while they were tough against the run (13th at 93.3 yards allowed per game), they ranked 109th against the pass. Their 3-3-5 defense does return every piece of that secondary, which will help, but they must replace four of the six starters up front. To play for the National Championship, West Virginia must finish undefeated, period. And even if they beat Louisville - which I think they will - I don't see this team and this defense running the entire table.

There is, of course, good news. Rich Rodriguez said no to Alabama to stay at West Virginia, which is not something you would've guessed as a possible outcome around three years ago. And yeah, you've got two Heisman candidates in your backfield in Pat White and Steve Slaton - plus bruising fullback Owen Schmitt - behind three returning starters on the offensive line. This team will score points with no doubts and no exceptions; even the very best defenses, who would make White beat them throwing the ball, which he didn't really have to do last year, would struggle to stop this unit. There's no one on the schedule who can shut them down - they scored 34 in the loss to Louisville, and were a little handcuffed by South Florida in scoring only 19 points. But once again, the non-conference schedule is highlighted by a trip to Maryland and a home date with Mississippi State, two of the least-feared teams in their respective power conferences. So West Virginia will again be shooting for around 35 points per game, which could be enough with the defense to keep them at the top of the Big East heap and in the National Championship conversation.

2007 West Virginia Schedule

09/01 - vs Western Michigan

09/08 - at Marshall

09/13 - at Maryland (Thurs)

09/22 - vs East Carolina

09/28 - at South Florida (Fri)

10/06 - at Syracuse

10/13 - off week

10/20 - vs Mississippi State

10/27 - at Rutgers

11/03 - off week

11/08 - vs Louisville (Thurs)

11/17 - at Cincinnati

11/24 - vs Connecticut

12/01 - vs Pittsburgh

Final Analysis

As stated, I'm giving them the win over Louisville, and I think Rutgers was more fantasy than reality, so I'm picking West Virginia to win the Big East and therefore make it to the BCS. However, I don't think they'll go undefeated. Somewhere in there, even if it's not against Louisville, the Mountaineers are going to falter. It happened with South Florida last year, and almost happened with Rutgers and Georgia Tech - don't be mistaken by thinking that West Virginia is invincible and unbeatable unless they're playing U of L. So I'm picking an upset along the way to knock them out of the National Championship picture. With the Big East title comes a trip to the Orange Bowl and a date with the ACC Champion - which, if that's Virginia Tech, would make fans of both programs incredibly happy - and I'm taking another West Virginia loss in the bowl. The Mountaineers don't command the same sort of respect from the polls as other more household-name teams, so even with two losses, you could see them drop this far if they lose their bowl game. And that's what I'm projecting - a Big East Championship, an upset that keeps them out of the BCS Championship Game, and an Orange Bowl loss. Still, a very good year for a very good team that will still potentially have all the talent, pieces, and schedule in place to run the table and go undefeated if they can avoid any landmines along the way. They can, I just don't think they will.

Risk/Reward

I was to and from Knoxville in the span of about 26 hours between yesterday and today, spending around seven of those hours on the road and all of them away from the internet. So when I get settled back in at home tonight and start checking email, it's amazing how much can happen when you turn away for just a moment.

The Atlanta Braves have completed a deal to pick up all-star first baseman Mark Teixeira, pending medical records and physicals of players to be named later. The Boston Celtics have completed a deal to pick up all-star forward Kevin Garnett, pending the language of the contract extension. Be still, my heart.

Now, let's deal with the easier one first: Teixeira is a major upgrade at first base for Atlanta, who dealt Adam LaRoche in the offseason and haven't gotten what they needed out of Scott Thorman. And all Julio Franco love aside, Teixeira gives Atlanta one of those household name batting orders that will now include five all-stars plus Jeff Francouer and Kelly Johnson. Atlanta - who is currently 4.5 out in the NL East and 2.5 out in the NL Wild Card - once again is getting agressive in July so they can make plans for October. And while offense will continue to be less of a problem and more of an answer, it's the pitching - from top to bottom - that will still be the difference between playoffs and heartbreak.

Mike Gonzalez is out for the year, and the best word of choice for closer Bob Wickman is currently "acceptable". Rafael Soriano started hot but has been very shaky in the last month. Now Ron Mahay (2.77 ERA) is slated to come over from Texas in the trade, so we'll see. But the Braves also need help at the top - John Smoltz is money, and Tim Hudson is now 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA. Chuck James will do. Buddy Carlyle has potential, but neither James nor Carlyle has pitched an October inning in Atlanta. And the fifth starter spot has been a gigantic black hole - Atlanta pitchers after those four are a combined 4-18 this year. There's rumor of a deadline day deal of Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel going down tomorrow, which would help things, but there's just not going to be anything remotely close to certainty in the rotation or the bullpen going down the stretch, or in the playoffs.

The good news is, it's the same story in New York and Philadelphia. And, as Peter Gammons and others have said, it'll be the pitching much more than the hitting that determines the NL East. But as the calendar hits August, it becomes serious baseball time. And the Braves have once more put themselves in position to make it happen.

And yes, Jarod Saltalamacchia is going to be a great catcher very soon, and he'll probably join the long list of ex-Brave "prospects" who become all-stars in a different city. And good for him if he does. But because of Brian McCann - who's an all-star right now - the Braves could afford to make this move, and you could argue in a way they'd have been missing out in a big way if they hadn't put Salty out there.

The Braves are now officially in the hunt, and in any playoff series against any opponent if they get there, they're going to be very dangerous on paper and on field. The Renteria-Chipper-Teixeira-Andruw-McCann-Francouer part of the order makes me happy. Smoltz and Hudson make me happy. The pieces continue to be in place and the excuses will be in short order. Atlanta has the playoffs in front of them, and the next two months of baseball will tell the rest of the story.

Atlanta took a small risk by trading one player with a great future, in return for the hopes of a great reward right now. The Boston Celtics just traded five players and two first round draft picks for one player in the hopes of a great reward right now.

I mean, even if you're not a Celtic fan, you look at this and tell me if it doesn't make you feel uneasy...I mean, just looking at it makes you queasy...

Minnesota gets...

Al Jefferson

Gerald Green

Ryan Gomes

Sebastian Telfair

Theo Ratliff

Future First Round Draft Pick

Future First Round Draft Pick

Boston gets...

Kevin Garnett

One of those lists is much longer than the other one.

Now...it's nausea, but it's not definitively despair. It could be despair. It could be jubilation. And you're going to hear a lot of both in the next week, I'd wager.

Right now, the Boston Celtics will send all-stars Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett onto the floor every night. No other team in the East, with the questionable exception of Detroit, has three players of that quality. Boston also has a talented young point guard in Rajon Rondo. We'll stretch the bounds by finding something good to say about Tony Allen, though I'm not sure what it is. And uh, Kendrick Perkins will probably be the fifth starter. So you have the cup runneth over at the top of the depth chart, and the valley of the shadow of death pretty much everywhere else. Risk. Reward.

The risk is huge. One injury any night. Foul trouble every night. Pierce, Allen and Garnett are 30, 31, and 32 years old. Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers are still running this team.

The other part of the risk is this: you've got a team that just finished with the second worst record in the NBA, and now the climate will change - overnight - from "let's tank and get Oden/Durant!" to "NBA Finals!" And that spells ulcer. And more than one.

Seriously, what's success for this trio and the Celtics? Right away, if Boston isn't playing in the 2008 Conference Finals, it's going to be deemed a huge failure. And ultimately, even if the Celtics make the Finals two or three times before these players start thinking about retirement, if you don't get a ring, you haven't done anything. This isn't the Phoenix Suns. This is the Boston Celtics, who've won 16 rings. And even if the last one was more than 20 years ago, the fans have a long memory. I was 5 when Boston won its last championship, and even I'll tell you that just making the NBA Finals doesn't mean ultimate success in Boston.

Now, if Boston gets a ring - just one - all this is worth it. And sure, if they make the Finals with this trio, no matter how bad the East and talented the West, they'll have at least a punchers chance and anything can happen. But the pressure to win, and win now, and win every night, is going to be tangible in sports-crazy Boston. And so while you at least don't have to worry about having the irrelevancy fears for the Celtics anymore, it's going to be a pressure cooked roller coaster every night. And again, with all the eggs in three 30 year old baskets...well, as we say, at least it won't be boring.

Days like today are why sports are what they are, and why they provide the joy they do. Atlanta put themselves out there to give themselves what they believe to be the best possible chance to win it all, and now the fans and the media have raised their expectations, and we watch and see over the next two months. Boston put themselves way, way out there with nothing much to fall back on if this doesn't work to give themselves what they believe to be the best possible chance to win it all (now), and now the fans and the media will skyrocket their expectations, and we'll watch and see over the next year. If Teixeira doesn't get Atlanta to the playoffs and Saltalamacchia becomes the best catcher in baseball, Braves fans will go back to finding something to be mad at the front office about. If the 30 year olds decline and Boston doesn't advance towards an NBA Championship, Celtic fans will blow up the front office. Or maybe the Braves and the Celtics will be playing for titles this October and next June. And both seem equally possible at this point. And that's the beauty, and the madness of it. Pass the tums and say a prayer.

UPDATE: Unparalleled optimism still lives on this blog, even if it doesn't always come from me: Bill Simmons' take on the Kevin Garnett deal.

Top 10 Things I'd like to see...

One of my friends was talking a few weeks ago about going to Lexington for the Tennessee-Kentucky game this year. And I've been weighing my options about joining him - Lexington is an easy trip from Knoxville, I've been there three times before. And I was also thinking about how it can sometimes carry that special extra weight, being that Kentucky hasn't beaten Tennessee in 23 years, and that if Andre Woodson and company get some upsets, it could actually become an important game.

And then I always have to remember that I can't say the same thing about Vanderbilt anymore - until 2005, I had never seen the Vols lose to either UK or Vandy (I was 1 when Vanderbilt won in 1982 and 3 when Kentucky did it in 1984). And it always seemed like something that would never happen, until 2005. And even that one is fuzzy for me - that day, I was at a church event (in Nashville, ironically) and so because I wasn't there when it happened and didn't see any of it on TV, it doesn't seem real to me, and so I always have to remember that yes, Vanderbilt did beat us, and no, we don't have a two-decade-plus streak on them anymore. But Kentucky's is still there. And I can say that I've never seen the Vols lose to them.

So all this got me thinking about what else I've never seen. And while I do remember how much fun it used to be to say "Memphis State's never beaten Tennessee and never will" until 1996, I started thinking about not the negative, but the positive - what have I never seen that I'd love to see more than anything else?

We're hovering in the realistic here, believe it or not. The fact that the Vols won a National Championship nine years ago opens up the top spot for lots of options. And in trying to think of things that I've never seen or that have never happened - which eliminates things like "The Celtics become relevant" - it was harder to come up with ten than I thought it would be. But alas, I persevere, and so for this Saturday - five weeks from kickoff, though these aren't all college football related - here are 10 things I've never seen in sports that I'd most want to see:

10. A Tennessee player wins the Heisman Trophy
As we approach the 10th anniversary of "From Michigan...Charles Woodson!" and the simultaneous birth of the "QB hurry" and "passes defended" statistics, I realize it's blasphemy for many Vol fans to include this on the list, which is why it's at the bottom. But I really tried to come up with something else that I'd like to see more after the first nine, but nothing seemed genuine.

At the very least, if the Vols developed a genuine Heisman candidate, it would be interesting. For whatever reason, Travis Stephens didn't fully become one in 2001, but he definitely should've been. And the Vols have had a few preseason hype machines since Peyton Manning finished second in 1997: Jamal Lewis in 1999, and Kelley "The Future" Washington in 2002. But a genuine, into-November candidate - whether it was Erik Ainge this year or another Vol somewhere down the road - would, even if it's 50 years from now, stir up the old emotions from 1997. One of these days, I'll dig up the article I wrote for my high school newspaper when Woodson won, because I still can't say it any better today. But this post isn't about why Woodson won - it's about what would happen if another Vol made it to New York, and whether or not you'd want to see them win.

Now...would it be awesome if Erik Ainge had a monster season, the Vols went undefeated, and then Ainge got invited to New York and said "No thanks" in honor of Peyton? Yes. Is that going to happen? No. Would that be what's best for Tennessee's program and image? Probably not. So if we're dealing with the real...you can bet that if Michigan fans held up signs that said "Woodson: Better then, better now." in January 2002 at the Citrus Bowl, it would still come up today. The wounds are still real. And I would like to see that sign today.

And regardless of any of that bad feelings or the quotes or whatever would happen if a Vol made it to the final cut, if the award fell into Big Orange hands - which has never happened, with Johnny Majors getting screwed and Heath Shuler having the misfortune of playing the same year as Charlie Ward - how would you feel?

And no matter how you'd answer that question right now, ultimately the answer is going to be that you'd feel good. Ultimately, it would be a good thing if a player from the University of Tennessee won the Heisman Trophy - and yes, it's ridiculous that I even have to make that statement. What happened in 1997 was very real and is like the loss that's never grieved; it'll take a legitimate Heisman candidate in orange, deep into the season, to bring up those wounds and make the Vols deal with them. Even when the Colts won the Super Bowl, my first thoughts were of the Heisman Trophy and its proclaimed irrelevancy for all in orange. But whether or not it's relevant, and no matter how long you wear your "And you can keep your stupid trophy" t-shirt...it would be good. And, before I die, I'd like to see one come to Knoxville. And so would you, even if you won't admit it.

09. The Cubs win the World Series
As a Braves fan, of course I want Atlanta to win it every single year. But I have a small hole in my heart for the Cubbies - one of my best friends in life, who died a few years ago, was a huge Cubs fan. And so I still track them in the standings every morning and pull for them as long as they're not playing Atlanta. And one of these days, I'd still like to see it happen like 99% of America.

In case you forgot, the Cubs last won a World Series in 1908, and last played in the World Series in 1945. They live a different breed of heartbreak than the Red Sox did, who kept making it and coming up short until 2004. And it should also be mentioned that if Steve Bartman and Grady Little did what they should've done, Jesus would've already come back, because there's no way a Cubs/Red Sox World Series in 2003 would've ended in anything other than armageddon.

One of these days, one of these years - maybe this one, who knows - the Cubs are going to get there. And when they do, one of these years they're going to win it. And when they do - hopefully not by beating the Braves in the NLCS along the way - me and the rest of America will smile.

08. Tiger Woods & Phil Mickelson playing together in the final pairing, atop the leaderboard on Sunday at a major
The window on this one won't last forever. And I'm not talking about Phil playing with Tiger when Tiger is six shots up on the field. I'm talking about the mythical showdown, where they go to Sunday in first and second at a major, separated by no more than two strokes. And if it comes down to 18, all the better.

The only thing Tiger is missing is a rival. Which isn't necessary - Michael Jordan is the "most now" athlete of all time, and he was never equaled in his time. But it would be fun. Because, as Rick Reilly wrote a few years ago, you can't like both of these guys. If it came down to them on Sunday, you'd find America choosing sides. I know right now it seems like you can pull for them both, but trust me, as the holes wore on down the stretch on Sunday, you'd find out who you really pulled for.

It wouldn't even matter who won - they've both won majors, their legacies are certainly safe. But just for once, I want to see Tiger square off with someone - and right now Phil is the best and only choice - on Sunday and have it be competitive. The story is always Woods' greatness, which is tremendous - but I want to see him go shot for shot with a rival on Sunday when it counts. And the ratings would never be the same.

07. A Tennessee basketball home-and-home series with Duke
The list of legendary arenas in college basketball starts and ends with Cameron Indoor. Maybe you could include Rupp Arena, but the Vols see that place every year. And the list of teams that you'd love to see at Thompson-Boling Arena is short too - dynasties in college basketball are a rare thing, and if it wasn't Duke you were clamoring for, it's probably North Carolina. Those are really the only two names that would make even the semi-casual basketball fan want to get a ticket in Knoxville, as the Vols already play Kentucky and Florida. But Duke carries a much, much greater appeal than Carolina for one reason: Cameron. Can you name North Carolina's arena off the top of your head? I'm sure Dean Smith's name is in there somewhere, but you see the point.

The scary part about this one is that it could be close to reality. The Lady Vols have built a strong exisiting relationship with Duke in a game, especially in the new absence of the Tennessee-UConn series (a great tragedy in my opinion), that has become one of the biggest in women's college basketball. Bruce Pearl is a smart man, who is only equaled by Mike Hamilton in terms of knowing what's best from a marketing and business standpoint.

A series like this was impossible three years ago. But now, if Pearl and the Vols keep this up, then Tennessee will become a team that gets in that elite group of 15-20 teams that seem to always play each other in the non-conference portion of the schedule. And I don't want Duke in the Preseason NIT or something like that. I want them to come to Knoxville, and then I want to try and get the hardest ticket of my life at Cameron. There's not a name in college basketball that you'd rather see Bruce Pearl's Vols face.

06. Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech in football
In fairness, this has happened - the 1994 Gator Bowl, which the Vols won by three touchdowns when Peyton Manning was a freshman. But it wasn't nearly as meaningful as it would be today - back then the Vols were at the tail end of a four-loss season, and Virginia Tech wasn't Virginia Tech yet. Since the days of Michael "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named" Vick, VT has become, and more importantly, maintained its status as a national powerhouse.

I live less than an hour from Blacksburg, in, as I'm often reminded, "the heart of Hokie country". And you can see why - there's not a professional team in sight, the closest being in other states (Charlotte) or in DC. There's not a lot of nightlife in these parts...on fall Saturdays, there's nothing to distract you from Hokie Football. The head coach, Frank Beamer, is one of their own, from the mountains of Southwest Virginia. And now the product they love so much has become, Vick Family aside, something to be very proud of. And something that can bite as well as it barks.

But living here for more than a year, with my allegiance and loyalty to the Vols on constant display, you can still sense a fear; it's not as tangible as I'm guessing it once was, but it's a fear that, should Virginia Tech ever go back to being an average program, the fringe Hokie fans will turn their attention, affection and dollars towards Knoxville, and a Tennessee program that's presumed to be always good. That Virginia Tech is still one step on the outside looking in - though a win at LSU on September 8 would change all of that.

They've talked Bristol for years. Virginia Tech fans say the Vols are scared. Doug Dickey always said he'd never give up a home game for something like that (six figure crowd, eight figure dollars). They've talked a home-and-home, but the Vols will be less apt to come to Blacksburg and her small house (though the new addition helps). And nothing ever happens - and the Vols scheduled an SEC-ACC series with NC State instead.

It can be a bowl game. Preferably, of course, it's a BCS bowl - and while it's probably bad for my personal job security if it was for the National Championship, and nobody wants to be on the other side of that story playing Virginia Tech for the title this year - the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl would do just fine. But it can even be the Chick-fil-A Bowl, which was flirted with last year before the Vols landed in Tampa. But sooner or later, the Vols and the Hokies need to go to war with each other. And if they ever do, Tennessee fans, coaches and players had better respect, and respect quickly, how badly the Hokies would want to beat the Vols. And then, of course, the Vols would have to win, because I'd never live that down.

05. Tennessee vs. Texas in football
The Horns are the only team left standing on my personal hate list in college football. The Vols crossed Michigan off that list in the Citrus Bowl '02, and while I'd love to see the Vols get another shot at Nebraska (coming home-and-home next decade) and Penn State, nothing good has happened so far against those teams, and they have more of my respect and less of my wrath.

But Texas stands alone, thanks to a combination of Chris Simms and that "the real UT" nonsense. Let me ask you a question: right now, if someone told you the Vols were going to play in the BCS National Championship Game in January, and you could pick the opponent, who's the first team you'd want to see the Vols face? Exactly.

Tennessee took care of them in basketball twice in two years, but that's not enough. What's more, this seems to be the most logical opponent for Tennessee to schedule a home-and-home football series with, but it hasn't happened yet. Tennessee is contracted with Oklahoma and Nebraska in the next decade, but still no Texas.

When realistically looking at making future schedules, the list of teams you really want to face is relatively small. There's always the Big 10-Big Stadium triumvirate of Michigan-Ohio State-Penn State, but the reality is the Vols always have a good shot of playing one of them in the BCS, Capital One or Outback Bowl, so you're not going to see Tennessee schedule a Big 10 opponent in the regular season (last time that happened: not counting playing Iowa in the 1987 Kickoff Classic - remember those? - Penn State, 1971-72). Outside of scheduling Virginia Tech for reasons outlined above, the only other "let's go out and do this at all costs" opponent that's out there is Texas. The Vols have done Miami and beat Florida State for the National Championship, won't schedule a Big 10 opponent, have Nebraska/Oklahoma coming down the pipe, should always continue their relationships with UCLA on the West Coast (coming next year) and Notre Dame...Texas is the only one left. And Texas is at the top of the list.

Still, I'd say VT is more likely to actually happen. And something makes me doubt that you'd better hope for a bowl game if you ever want to really see them.

04. The Braves beat the Yankees or Red Sox to win the World Series
Atlanta has been involved in some memorable World Series moments - the epic 91 affair with Minnesota, the victory over Cleveland in 95, Andruw Jones' breakout and Atlanta's subsequent collapse against the Yankees in 96. And Cleveland was a big deal when the 95 World Series unfolded, where both cities desperately needed that ring.

And of course today, if the Braves beat the D-Rays to win the title, I'd still be happy. But as someone, maybe Bill Simmons, said about the Red Sox in 04...there's lots of chances to win the World Series. But you don't always get a chance to take out the Yankees along the way.

I group the Sox and Yanks together, because facing - and beating, which is the key word - either of them would be money, both for the Braves and for the television rights. Atlanta is still a big TV draw (as I watch them play Arizona on Fox Saturday Baseball as we speak), and you could argue that after the Cubs, they're going to be the best National League TV draw in a World Series. Meanwhile, network executives pray to the television gods every year for a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS, because the ratings will simply get no higher.

So in my best baseball fantasy, I'll take the Braves in the World Series against the winner of said Yanks/Sox ALCS. Preferably, it'd be the Yankees - because we all hate the Yankees. But either way, that's a memorable, money World Series, and it would be that much sweeter to get the ring that way.

03. Titans win the Super Bowl
We've been here before. The Super Bowl is unquestionably the biggest sporting event in the American world, so having your favorite team win it would give you a moment that would last forever. And in the ultra-competitive roller coaster of the NFL, you get windows that open and close rapidly.

After giving my young heart to the Tennessee Oilers when the Cowboys had broken it with a combination of strippers, guns, cocaine and Jerry Jones, I was rewarded in 1999 with a magical ride of cool uniforms, Steve McNair and Eddie George, the Music City Miracle, a win over Peyton in the divisional round, and a very satisfying triumph over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. In the Super Bowl against the St. Louis Rams, as it came down to the final drive, I felt a strange emotion - when the Vols are down to their last drive, I have this blind "we're going to do it!" confidence that bleeds through on this blog. But for the Titans, there was no such feeling present, and so every play I was scared to death. And if you go back and watch the tape, McNair made some incredible plays to the very end, when yes, the Titans came up one. yard. short.

(For the record, I also hate Kurt Warner. People used to come up to me all the time and say "wow, isn't Kurt Warner a great Christian example?" And I say no, he's not. As soon as the Rams won and they handed him the microphone, he said something like "First and foremost, I'd like to thank my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for giving us the victory!" And I don't know much, but I can assure you that he wasn't praying to the same God as me. Because my God certainly couldn't ordain coming up a yard short. Of this I am sure.)

The Titans had a couple more shots - losing with their best team to the Ravens in the divisionals the following year in a heartbreaking game, losing at New England and at Oakland in subsequent years in the playoffs. It's been four years since they've had serious title thoughts. But when you picture Vince Young, maybe not right away, but you start thinking about him holding up that Lombardi Trophy one day...

As stated, it's the Super Bowl. So I want my team to get it done. And then, much more than I fondly remember blindly cheering for the Cowboys as a kid, I'll always have something to say "That one. That Super Bowl. That year. That title."

02. Tennessee Basketball wins the SEC Tournament/makes the Final Four
Since we're going for realism, I won't write "wins the National Championship" up there. Yet. One thing at a time. But I'm grouping both of these together under the "postseason success" banner. And we'll only have to wait about eight months for both of these, right?

The SEC Tournament has rapidly become one of my favorite events in sports. But it's also cost me lots of heartbreak and about $500.00 over the last two years. But it's so unique, with fans from all 12 teams coming out and the promise of four days of good basketball, and it is, on all levels, the greatest risk/reward sporting event to personally attend that I know of.

And Tennessee plays terrible in the SEC Tournament, historically speaking. But should the Vols ever breakthrough to Saturday, and then actually make it to Sunday, and then win it...it will be awesome.

From there, it goes to March Madness, where now it's no longer instant-success to make it to the Sweet 16. I would argue that even making the Elite Eight will no longer be instant-success. And my thoughts on the Vols' chances this year - which really, really are too close to being factual to call them delusions - will come out as we get closer to winter. But either way, the Final Four is uncharted territory. And it's the next step, as Bruce Pearl would say. Is it really so hard to believe that of everything on this list, this one is the most probable?

01. Tennessee vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game
This one's so far at the top, it's not even close.

It's been 15 years since they created the East and West Divisions in the SEC and created the first Championship Game. And when they did, it seemed logical for everyone to think that the two most storied programs in the SEC would now get another chance to play each other, with the stakes higher than ever.

It's been 15 years. And it still hasn't happened.

Sometimes it's been our fault - in those 15 years, the one it should've happened in the most was the first one, where the Vols blew a two game SEC East lead in 1992 by losing three straight by a combined ten points. Florida got in the way from there, meeting Alabama for the title in 92 as well as 93, 94, and 96. And sometimes it's been their fault - really, the four years that Tennessee has made it - 97, 98, 01, 04 - Alabama really hasn't been on the radar. Alabama hasn't been in Atlanta since 1999, but that's another year where the Vols were a toss sweep against Florida away from facing them, and dropped the ball.

I've written on here multiple times about the SEC Championship Game being the best sporting environment I've ever been in - I've been to all four the Vols played in, and especially the 97 contest between the Vols and Auburn with a 50/50 split crowd and everything on the line, you just can't touch the atmosphere. And if it was ever the Vols and the Tide - bonus points, of course, if both were in the hunt for the national title - that's the only thing that could top what I've already seen. It would be the greatest Tennessee-Alabama game in history going in, and that's saying something.

The beauty of it in today's SEC is that who knows? Were you picking Arkansas this time last year? True Tennessee fans want Alabama to be good. True Tennessee fans cheer for the Tide for all four weeks in September and the first two in October. You can hate Florida and Georgia and hope they get beat every week - which is fine, cause they're in our division and we could always use the help. But for the Third Saturday to be the Third Saturday, you need both teams at elite status. And if you want the best SEC Championship Game possible, it's simple: you need Tennessee, and you need Alabama. And I don't think fans of either team fully realize how truly great that situation would be until they stop and think about it. So you think about it. Especially if you've been down to Atlanta for one of those games before, think about it. And believe it - there's nothing - nothing - I'd rather see than the Vols and our best rival playing in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

And one of these days, it's actually going to happen.

Random Thoughts - Friday July 27

If you're in your mid-20s and you want to feel older, go see The Simpsons Movie in a theater full of little kids who dragged their parents/grandparents to see it because it's a cartoon, and then watch them all look at you when you laugh by your lonesome at the parts that are actually funny.

SEC Media Days Update
You can check out secsports.com for a full Media Days rundown, with lots of quotes from all 12 head coaches. But on the matters of greatest importance, the media voted for their All-SEC team and for their picks for conference order of finish:

2007 PRESEASON ALL-SEC TEAM
QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky
RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt
WR Marcus Monk, Arkansas
TE Jacob Tamme, Kentucky
OL Will Arnold, LSU
OL Michael Oher, Ole Miss
OL Andre Smith, Alabama
OL Phil Trautwein, Florida
C Jonathan Luigs, Arkansas

DL Glenn Dorsey, LSU
DL Quentin Groves, Auburn
DL Derrick Harvey, Florida
LB Jasper Brinkley, South Carolina
LB Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt
LB Ali Highsmith, LSU
LB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee
DB Simeon Castille, Alabama
DB Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee
DB Chevis Jackson, LSU
DB Derek Pegues, Mississippi State

K Ryan Succop, South Carolina
P Britton Colquitt, Tennessee

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
Eastern Division
1. Florida
2. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. South Carolina
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt

Western Division
1. LSU
2. Auburn
3. Arkansas
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State

Votes for SEC Champion: LSU (54), Florida (7), Arkansas (5), Auburn (4), Alabama (3), South Carolina (3), Tennessee (2), Georgia (2)

Aaron Green joins the Tennessee Basketball Staff
Stuff's gettin' better. Stuff's gettin' better every day. Believe it or not, it's been almost ten years since Green wore the orange and white, graduating in 1999. Since then, Green has been coaching the Cleveland High School squad, but it was announced that he will now join Bruce Pearl's staff as a graduate manager. You can read the full press release here. If this good basketball news keeps up at this pace, you can expect Bruce Pearl to walk on water sometime next week.

"Hey, what's the most inappropriate thing we could do with this video game?"
According to Sports Illustrated - as I am loyal to EA Sports til death and do not own the flashy new All Pro Football 2K8, where you play as NFL legeneds from the last three decades - OJ Simpson is the starting running back for a team called the Assassins. Nice.

The Smell

A friend and I were discussing the other day about our favorite days of the year - the days that never disappoint and you look forward to them without fail. This entire conversation was sparked by the NCAA Football 08 release last week, which is always a day for me that simply does not disappoint. This year I took the day off last Tuesday just to play it all day, and I know I wasn't alone.

And there are other days, of course - Christmas, New Year's, fifth Sundays where I get to come home and see friends and family and speak in some old rooms...they're not all sports related, but for me obviously a bunch of them are. Like the night before the Tennessee-Florida game and its Christmas Eve-like lack of sleep. And there's the video game. But one of my favorite days, by far, is that mid-summer moment when I get The Smell.

Now, lots of people don't understand The Smell, and I'll agree that it's difficult to explain. But some of you know exactly what I'm talking about. The Smell is different for everyone. For me it's a combination of grass and smoke, laced with anticipation. To the point, The Smell is the almost-tangible moment where, for those of us who invest way too much of our lives and our emotions in college/Tennessee football, sometime around July or August, when there's nothing but the midseason lull of baseball to dominate the sports world, it's the exact moment when you realize that you're ready - really ready - for football. And yes, it's just as important as it sounds.

Some history: my sophomore year of high school, when some of my friends had gotten their license and we were beginning to get free to be on our own, I remember going with several of them to the high school football jamboree that August. And I remember making the comment about being ready for football season, that I could literally smell it. And one of my friends, as I'm sure most people will do, said that was the dumbest thing he had ever heard of. But someone else instantly spoke up and said, "Dude, I know exactly what you mean." And The Smell was born.

It's grass and smoke for me because, well, football is played outside. But also, aside from a couple years in the student section, I've sat in the same seats at Neyland Stadium since 1985 - Z11, Row 48 on the aisle. And my entire life, the people sitting directly in front of me at the stadium have smoked. As a result, to this day I have a very weird affinity for the smell of cigarette smoke - the while-it's-being-smoked smell, not the aftereffects that stay on your clothes and the walls of your apartment when both of your roommates smoke and makes people look at you and say "where have you been?!" - even though I've never smoked a cigarette in my entire life. It's part of what I associate with Neyland Stadium. It's part of what I associate with what makes me happy. Unfortunately for me and the gentleman that sits in front of me, smoking is now illegal everywhere in Neyland Stadium.

But it's not just grass and smoke, for me, at any old time of the year. It's sometime around now, as baseball drags on but those numbers on the countdown to kickoff are getting lower and lower. And it's never the same day every year, and while there are lots of triggers - the video game, emails about signing up for fantasy football, lots of ESPN and websites - there's always a specific moment that sneaks up on me where I all of a sudden get "The Smell"...and then I'm officially ready for football.

And yes, I know how ridiculous all this sounds. But I also had the same conversation with my friend while she tried to explain to me the differences between shopping the day after Thanksgiving and the day after Christmas, and the way she looked forward to both. And I say good for her. You can't take my joy from The Smell, no matter how stupid it sounds. If you get it, you just get it.

So it was last Friday night, sitting in right field at Turner Field watching the Braves and Cardinals with my sister, while in Atlanta to help her move. At this point the Braves were already up big in a game they would go on to win 10-1, but there was something more going on: 48 year old Julio Franco had returned to the Braves after being cut by the Mets, and this was his first night back. And Julio, of course, was released because he wasn't performing, his average dipping to .200. If the Braves didn't pick him up, no one would. But fortunately for him, the Braves have a Scott Thorman-sized hole at first base.

So the old man comes to the plate and gets the standing ovation he deserves from the home crowd in Atlanta who're all glad to see him back. But after starting 0-1, reality sets in: Julio needs a hit. Not just because it would be nice for the storybook, but he really needs a hit - he's batting sub-Mendoza and needs to prove his worth and hold his place with the ballclub, to help his own psyche, whatever you want to call it - Julio needs a hit.

So in his second at-bat, even with Atlanta already up 5-0, the tension mounts. My sister had never heard of Julio Franco before, but after explaining the situation to her he instantly becomes her favorite player, and she's nervous too - Julio needs a hit.

And there in his second AB, with runners on and the tension rising, while sitting there feeling the personal emotional pull from a sporting event I haven't felt since watching Greg Oden block Ramar Smith's last chance shot in the Sweet 16 some four or five months ago, and everything focused towards home plate...The Smell hit me. And there, watching Julio Franco draw a walk in his second at bat, I was ready for Tennessee Football.

In his next at bat, Julio would smack an RBI single.

So now, it's like all my senses are tuned towards September, even though the calendar still reads late July. Because now you can say things like "Practice starts next week". And now you can look at that countdown and see numbers you can wrap your mind around. Now you can start planning weekends to be in Knoxville and what to say no to elsewhere. Now you know, for sure, that football is knocking on the door...and as I've said before, everything...everything is better in autumn.

37 days baby. 37 days.

07 SESB Preseason All-SEC Team

Live from Atlanta, where the Braves won 10-1 last night and ran my overall record at Braves games to a robust 12-2. Before looking forward to two hours of traffic en route to Turner for tonight's game - I could never live here - the coaches announced their preseason All-SEC teams today (check it out at SECsports.com), prepping for SEC Media Days which take place next week. As usual, I'll throw my two cents into the equation:

2007 SESB PRESEASON ALL-SEC TEAM
OFFENSE
QB - ERIK AINGE, TENNESSEE
In what could turn out to be the Year of the Quarterback in the SEC, there are familiar names like Stafford and Tebow, and there are players that are lesser known like Andre Woodson who may turn out to be the cream of the crop. But the best combination of tools and experience is found in Knoxville. Erik Ainge was believed to be a franchise player when he started as a freshman in 2004, and has always had the physical tools. He rebounded exceptionally well last year from a fragile 2005 season. Now charged with more of the responsibilitiy in the offense, the success or failure of the Vols' season will rise and fall, as it tends to do everywhere in the SEC, on the shoulders of the head coach, then the quarterback. Ainge has a chance to become a solid NFL first round draft pick, and the best quarterback in the SEC on a championship team. He also has a chance to struggle with new receivers and against solid defenses every week. There are no Heisman candidates among SEC quarterbacks, unless you count Ainge, so it's not an obvious pick either way. But Ainge has the best chance to excel.

RB - DARREN MCFADDEN, ARKANSAS
RB - CORY BOYD, SOUTH CAROLINA
The first choice is exceptionally obvious - McFadden is the best player in the conference and arguably the nation. But from there, you have lots of talent and options, but not one name that truly stands out. You could argue for McFadden's counterpart in Felix Jones. You could argue for BenJarvus Green-Ellis at Ole Miss, who quietly put up better numbers than most last year. You could argue for Kentucky's Rafael Little, who combines his rushing abilities with pass catching and return skills. Or you could choose Arian Foster or LaMarcus Coker in Knoxville. But I'll go to Columbia and take Cory Boyd, simply because I believe he's the most valuable RB in the SEC behind McFadden - without him, South Carolina's offense is in real trouble. When Boyd is 100%, he's a load to bring down and can make everything work right for Steve Spurrier's offense, in which a solid running back has always been an overlooked but critical component (Rhett, Taylor, Graham, etc.) Cory Boyd has a chance to be that component for Carolina in 2007. He gets the nod.

WR - EARL BENNETT, VANDERBILT
WR - MARCUS MONK, ARKANSAS
Bennett, as stated on a previous blog, could become the SEC's all-time leading pass receiver by November. He's the obvious choice for one, even if he does play for Vanderbilt. The second option is once again up for debate, because there are some flash names out there like Early Doucet and Percy Harvin. But the 6'6" Marcus Monk is a gamechanger, not because he has Harvin's speed or playmaking ability, but because he's such a handful to defend on every single play on a team where you have to respect the run with everything you have. Others will have better numbers, but I believe Monk is the second best wide receiver in the SEC this season.

TE - JACOB TAMME, KENTUCKY
In a year where it seems like finally both Florida and Georgia don't have a proven NFL threat at tight end, the senior Tamme is the obvious choice. He puts up bigger numbers at this position than anyone else by far, and is yet another option in the exciting Kentucky attack that hasn't been seen this decade. For clarification, Jared Lorenzen was a different kind of exciting.

OL - WILL ARNOLD, LSU
OL - JONATHAN LUIGS, ARKANSAS
OL - ANTOINE CALDWELL, ALABAMA
OL - CHRIS WILLIAMS, VANDERBILT
OL - ROBERT FELTON, ARKANSAS
Check it out - Vanderbilt has more offensive selections here than anyone else in the Eastern Division, and Florida and Georgia have none. Caldwell and Luigs are juniors, the other three are seniors, and obviously will all play important roles in the offensive success of their teams.

DEFENSE
DE - QUENTIN GROVES, AUBURN
DE - DERRICK HARVEY, FLORIDA
Easy choices here - Groves is probably the better of the two players and might be the best overall defensive player in the SEC after Glenn Dorsey, but Harvey made a bigger name for himself in the BCS Championship Game, and is one of the only returning components on the Florida defense. Both can get after you in a hurry.

DT - GLENN DORSEY, LSU
DT - MARCUS HARRISON, ARKANSAS
Dorsey has been called the best player in college football by Kirk Herbstreit, and the senior may in fact be just that. He's got Top 10 draft pick written all over him. Harrison is another reason why you can't just write off Arkansas as a one year story or just a team with a great running back, though he'll carry more of the load by himself with Anderson now in the NFL. Remember when Tennessee was a staple crop to have a defensive lineman on the Preseason All-SEC team?

LB - ALI HIGHSMITH, LSU
LB - JASPER BRINKLEY, SOUTH CAROLINA
LB - WESLEY WOODYARD, KENTUCKY
It's a deep year at linebacker as well in the SEC, and there are other names that could go here, including Jerod Mayo. Brinkley is the best player on South Carolina's excellent defense, Highsmith bottles things up for LSU, and Woodyard continues to dominate at Kentucky while going relatively unnoticed.

DB - SIMEON CASTILLE, ALABAMA
DB - JONATHAN HEFNEY, TENNESSEE
DB - TONY JOINER, FLORIDA
DB - CHEVIS JACKSON, LSU
Castille seems like he's been around forever, and so does Hefney, who's been a starter for four years. Jackson is the next good defender in the secondary in Baton Rouge, while Joiner will be the only returning starter in Florida's secondary. All have NFL futures.

K - BRANDON COUTU, GEORGIA
P - BRITTON COLQUITT, TENNESSEE
Two guys who also feel like they've been aroud forever, Colquitt for his last name, Coutu because Georgia simply keeps turning out great kickers.

Random Thoughts - Wednesday July 18

Let's just say that this may not have been the most productive week in the history of the Kingdom of God in Ceres, Virginia. After taking a day off yesterday for NCAA Football 08, I'm heading to Atlanta tomorrow to help my sister move (read: Braves and Cardinals on Thursday and Friday). Those same Braves - who, bravo, picked up Julio Franco today - are currently playing the rare midweek day game, which was required viewing to watch John Smoltz return and strike out 11 in 7 shutout innings. And they're now playing in the 12th inning. And that evil Harry Potter will be waiting for me when I get back.

So before heading south for the weekend, some thoughts and links of interest:

First Impressions - NCAA Football 08 (360)
- Things I love: improved realism in QB play and DB AI means that, not only can you not scramble like a fiend with any remotely athletic quarterback, you also can't rollout right and throw back across your body like it's no big deal. Blocked extra points no longer occur at the rate of one per game. Punt returns are now actually possible instead of the return man getting crushed and fumbling on instant impact. Above all, the game runs at 60 frames per second, and if you played this game last year, you'll notice it instantly. The best word I would currently use to describe this game is smooth.

- I also love the (assumed) realism when playing with the Vols. LaMarcus Coker and Arian Foster as an effective one-two punch? Check. Wide receivers that really hamper your offense (led by Kenny O'Neal at 82 overall)? Check. An offensive line that's adequate but not great? Check. A 97 overall free safety that makes a huge difference in the young secondary in Jonathan Hefney? Check. When I play with them, I do things well that I assume the Vols will do well in September, and I struggle in areas I assume the Vols will struggle in. After playing two "I can beat them with Tennessee!" games against West Virginia (lost by 3) and Florida (lost by 2) to open the online season, we've put together three straight Ws by finally getting the Big Orange victory over Texas, then doing my favorite thing to do by matching up the opponent's team with one of their real-life opponents, and scoring a Miami victory over Texas A&M, and winning a Southern Miss-UTEP showdown where the Golden Eagles went into the 4th quarter down 14-3 and walked out with an 18-14 win by scoring the game winner with :07 left. I promise I won't blog about my fictional online games anymore. Much.

- Things I don't love: the spot of the ball, both on first downs and out of bounds. Plays that looked like 3rd and 1 last year are now 1st and 10. And we've come dangerously close to the controller throw on several occassions where I would bet my firstborn that the receiver didn't come close to getting a foot down, but is awarded the catch anyway. The collision detection and gang tackling are cool to look at, but can sometimes result in the ball carrier being pinballed by 4-5 defenders and actually going forward for 2-3 additional yards, instead of the realistic loss of 2-3 yards. And while I can't tell you about dynasty mode because I'm such a fanboy that I play mine week-by-week with the real life regular season starting in September, I do know that it's ridiculous that, for the second year in a row, the Playstation 2 version has a better online mode than the 360. You can't load rosters into online mode, which means not only do I miss out on player names when playing online, but I have to reset the depth chart for the Vols (or at least check it for everyone else) to make sure it's right, which includes taking Roshaun Fellows out of the starting lineup. And I'm also pretty sure we have a Brandon Warren sighting as TE #1 for the Vols.

- Overall impressions: of course, I love it. And it's probably true that I would love it if it sucked just because it's this year's version. But for the speed and, again, the smooth-ness of it alone, it's an improvement. It's good right now. And it'll get better.

As we go to the 13th inning in Atlanta, here's the link dump for this week:
- 2008 & newly released (and still incomplete) 2009 UT Football schedules
- Stewart Mandel's 10 Best & 5 Worst College Football Coaches (SI.com)
- Peter King's Pre-Training Camp NFL Power Rankings (SI.com)
- YouTube: Last week's Larry King Live with Bret Hart, John Cena, Chris Jericho and others on the Chris Benoit tragedy (pre-toxicology report)

Also, don't forget that starting Monday, ESPN is debuting College Football Live at 3:30 PM weekdays. Rece Davis will host with a rotating panel of analysts (Corso, Herbstreit, Holtz, May, Flutie, etc.) everyday between Monday and...well, hopefully this becomes a year-round show like NFL Live, but I doubt it. Either way, you'll see this thing every weekday between now and at least the end of the season.

45 days.

07 College Football Position Ratings

Here on Christmas Eve, we celebrate the dawn of EA's NCAA08 in less than 24 hours by ranking the real-life players for the 2007 season at each position, with team rankings for offensive line and defense. These are, like everything else on this blog, my rankings, and while they're a bit more objective than others (which means Erik Ainge is not #1 on the QB list), there's no one variable or set formula used - it's a combination of stats, potential both now and on Sundays, supporting cast, and my opinion. So they are certainly up for debate. But before setting my sights on EB Games tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM, we take a look towards the real thing in 47 days:

Quarterbacks
01. Colt Brennan, Hawaii (Sr)
02. John David Booty, Southern Cal (Sr)
03. Brian Brohm, Louisville (Sr)
04. Colt McCoy, Texas (S0)
05. Erik Ainge, Tennessee (Sr)
06. Matt Ryan, Boston College (Sr)
07. Pat White, West Virginia (Jr)
08. Chad Henne, Michigan (Sr)
09. Chase Daniel, Missouri (Jr)
10. Andre Woodson, Kentucky (Sr)

Keep an eye on: Rudy Carpenter (Arizona State), Sam Keller (Nebraska), Nate Longshore (Cal), Stephen McGee (Texas A&M), Ben Olson (UCLA), Curtis Painter (Purdue), Bobby Reid (Oklahoma State), Jameel Sewell (Virginia), Riley Skinner (Wake Forest), Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Tim Tebow (Florida), John Parker Wilson (Alabama)

While there are some circles that will tell you that it's ridiculous to not put Brohm on the top of an 07 college football quarterback list, as he is widely regarded as the best NFL prospect and potential number one pick, we're going to start with Brennan, who threw for almost a thousand more yards than any other quarterback in 2006. That's good enough to put you on top. Booty and Brohm are, to me, close enough to make the fact that one plays for USC and the other plays in the Big East put Booty in second. You'll notice the abundance of senior signal callers here, which looks to put Colt McCoy in the national spotlight for the next two seasons after this, which also isn't to say that he can't win the Heisman this year. And while Pat White is without question the most dangerous running quarterback, he plays on a team with Steve Slaton and a running attack, and - gasp! - may not really be as good as Andre Woodson, who threw 31 TDs and only 7 INTs last year against an SEC plus Louisville/Clemson schedule. As for Ainge, those who still have memories of 2005 will get their answers this year as he attempts to close out his career without Meachem, Swain, and Smith. Time will tell.

Running Backs
01. Darren McFadden, Arkansas (Jr)
02. Steve Slaton, West Virginia (Jr)
03. Ray Rice, Rutgers (Jr)
04. PJ Hill, Wisconsin (So)
05. Mike Hart, Michigan (Sr)
06. Ian Johnson, Boise State (Jr)
07. Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech (Sr)
08. Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State (Sr)
09. Branden Ore, Virginia Tech (Jr)
10. Chris Markey, UCLA (Sr)

Keep an eye on: Jamaal Charles (Texas), James Davis/CJ Spiller (Clemson), Arian Foster/LaMarcus Coker/Montario Hardesty (Tennessee), Jimmy Johns (Alabama), Allen Patrick (Oklahoma), Chris Wells (Ohio State)

There should be no debate that McFadden is 1, and in some ways should be considered the best player in college football right now. And there should be no debate that Slaton is 2, and both are Heisman frontrunners early. There's a dropoff from the top six to everyone else here, and while Mike Hart might be a tad overrated and Ray Rice a tad underrated, they're both very very good backs. Players like Choice and Ore will find themselves the first and last options for their offenses, which could negatively affect their numbers in 2007.

Wide Receivers
01. Mario Manningham, Michigan (Jr)
02. Jarrett Dillard, Rice (Sr)
03. Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt (Jr)
04. Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State (Sr)
05. DeSean Jackson, Cal (Jr)
06. Limas Sweed, Texas (Sr)
07. Marcus Monk, Arkansas (Sr)
08. Percy Harvin, Florida (So)
09. Harry Douglas, Louisville (Sr)
10. Mario Urrutia, Louisville (Jr)

Keep an eye on: Davone Bess (Hawaii), Dorien Bryant (Purdue), Keenan Burton (Kentucky), Greg Carr (Florida State), Early Doucet (LSU), DJ Hall (Alabama), Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma), Derek Kinder (Pittsburgh)

I've been on the Manningham bandwagon for two full seasons now, and let's make it three. Manningham is the best pure wide receiver in college football, though he'll get out-stated by others in more high-profile passing attacks. Jarrett Dillard tried to catch 100 passes last year and only finished with 91 and 21 TDs, and Earl Bennett - who is a junior and does play for Vanderbilt - can become the SEC's all time leading receiver this season with just 48 catches. Other stars: Bowman had a 14 catch, 300 yard, 4 TD game last year...Marcus Monk is the second best receiver in the SEC after Bennett, but Harvin will get the highlights and players like Keenan Burton will get the stats.

Offensive Line
01. Michigan
02. Southern Cal
03. Texas A&M
04. Alabama
05. Oklahoma
06. Rutgers
07. Oregon State
08. Louisville
09. Florida
10. Ohio State

When wondering why you'll find USC and Michigan ranked 1-2 in almost all preseason polls, you'll see a lot of this. The Wolverines return three starters including future first rounder Jake Long. USC matches them - the Trojans return three including future first rounder Sam Baker. Texas A&M will go with five senior starters, while Alabama will go with five returning starters.

Team Defense
01. Southern Cal
02. LSU
03. Virginia Tech
04. South Carolina
05. Florida State
06. Iowa
07. Georgia Tech
08. TCU
09. Rutgers
10. UCLA

Keep an eye on: Auburn, Boston College, Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, South Florida, Tennessee, Virginia, Wake Forest, Wisconsin

If Southern Cal is undefeated at season's end, you may be seeing as many as five Trojans getting first or second team All-America honors. You may also be able to say the same for LSU and South Carolina in the SEC. The only team that can give SC's linebacking corps of Keith Rivers, Rey Maualuga, and Brian Cushing a run for their money is Virginia Tech, with Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi. The Hokies led the NCAA last year in total defense and scoring defense. But watch out for TCU, who was 2nd and 3rd in those two categories last year. There are several teams, including UCLA and Virginia, that simply return too many starters to not be on the radar.


Will Shelton plays as Riverside Wrath.

07 All Star Break Thoughts

On the verge of tonight's All-Star Game - where even if the festivities themselves don't excite you, the winner-gets-home-field angle probably means if you're a fan of a contender, you're at least checking the box score tomorrow with a vested interest - we look ahead to the second half of the season, as the pennant races begin to separate the men from the boys...


In the American League, unless you're a believer in Seattle and have some sort of educated guess as to how all this Mike Hargrove stuff is going to ultimately affect them, it's hard to see anyone other than Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, and the Angels making the playoffs. The Yankees are "only" 10 games back and they're still the Yankees, but it would take not only an extreme improvement in The Bronx, but a near-total collapse in Boston, and those two things together are almost as likely as a team coming from down 3-0 to win the ALCS on the other team's home field.


...really, in the East, it's the Red Sox. I mean, come on. But those loveable Yanks are only 8.5 back of the Wild Card. Hey, if you go back a year you can read a manical projection of how the Braves could make up that much ground and make the playoffs after a devastating first half. I won't link to it, because it was crazy then and crazy now. The Yankees are done. And we're not going to honor their presence by talking about them anymore.


The Central race could get exciting, and the Tigers and Indians have both played inspired ball against each other and overall to this point, but in reality, they'll still probably both make the playoffs and do so easily. The White Sox haven't been talked about as much thanks to the Yankees, who I just said I wasn't going to talk about anymore, but Ozzie's boys are 39-47 and 13 games back. Thanks for playing. Minnesota's made runs before, but at eight back with not one but two hot teams ahead of them, don't hold your breath.


Out West, I'd love to see Seattle make it - currently only 2.5 back - because they've got cool uniforms, and I dislike the Angels on ethical grounds that your team shouldn't be named "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim". However, I don't see it lasting for Seattle, and I don't see a loaded Angels team that's arguably the best in baseball giving it away. The real race in the American League will be for the best record, currently owned by the Red Sox by half a game over both the Tigers and Angels. Good stuff.


You wanna talk MVP? A-Rod will get some votes, even if he cools off a bit, since he's already hit 30 homers. But even if he is the best player in baseball, he may not be the most valuable, and his team is playing too poorly for him to be seriously considered right now. So it then falls to Vlad Guerrero (.325, 14 and 75) and Magglio Ordonez (.367, 13 and 70). If Vlad's got his Dominican posse with him again like he did last night in SanFran, the scales tip in his favor.


Pitchers in the AL are having a banner year. Oakland's Dan Haren, whom you've heard of the least, is 10-3 with a sick 2.30 ERA that keeps dropping, and will be starting the All-Star Game tonight. After him, there's a long list of familiar names - Santana, Verlander, Beckett, Sabathia, and others - who are also in the thick of any preliminary Cy Young conversations right now. And it's easier to give the Cy Young to a pitcher who goes once every five days on a non-playoff team than it is the MVP to an everyday player on a non-playoff team, so if Haren keeps this up, he's in good shape. Hopefully though, the NL lights him up tonight in his first All-Star action.


If pressed right now, I'll go with Vlad the Impaler to win MVP, and - though this is like throwing darts - I'll take Verlander to win the AL Cy Young, because a no hitter will help break mental ties among voters in a close race. And I'll take those four aforementioned teams - Boston in the East, Detroit in the Central, LAA in the West, and Cleveland for the Wild Card - with the Red Sox finishing with the best record in baseball. Therefore, I'll also take Boston to advance to the World Series, in what would be an AL playoffs loaded with spectacular pitching matchups.


The National League may not be as good, but it'll be more exciting down the stretch. The five best records in baseball all reside in the American League at the break, but there's a huge drop after the Mariners at .576 - the Twins are at .511, and the A's are at even .500, and then the other seven AL teams are all under .500. The NL boasts nine teams at or above .500, but it's much more crowded. Picking the best teams and the award winners becomes difficult in a different way here.


In the NL East, the Mets lead by two games over the Braves and 4.5 on the Fightin' Phillies. It's a tough call on the Mets, who went 12-15 in June and are 2-6 in July to this point, but still lead the division. I'm writing off the Phillies because they're the Phillies, so this division comes down, of course, to the Braves and Mets. Back in mid-May, it looked as if both would easily make the playoffs and that both were the two best teams in the NL, but a lot of losses between them since then has the wild card currently coming out of the West, and the Braves out of the playoffs if they started today, two back of the Mets and two back of the Dodgers for the wild card.


So, who do you like over the next 2.5 months? The Mets still look better on paper and have enjoyed solid years thus far from Jose Reyes and David Wright, but the real life numbers this year for Carlos Beltran and Delgado are down, and the outfield platoon between Endy Chavez, Moises Alou, and Carlos Gomez means that none of them have been lighting it up. And pitching continues to be the real question - John Maine has become the staff ace (10-4, 2.71), but it's average at best from there: Glavine and Perez are both 7-6, and while Jorge Sosa has been a nice story so far at 7-3, he's still Jorge Sosa and I'm sure he'll come around to his old ways soon enough. By the time Pedro Martinez is throwing at Shea, the weight of the team may literally be on his shoulder.

Then there's the Braves. Atlanta is 47-42, and at times they look like real contenders, and at times they look really bad. They're getting very solid play from Brian McCann, Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones. Kelly Johnson has been more than fine, and Yunel Escobar - if he's not trade bait - has real promise. Even Andruw Jones is warming up, back above Mendoza and hitting .211 with 15 homers. The pitching has been acceptable, though it goes without saying that the Braves m-u-s-t have John Smoltz at or near 100% to have a chance at the playoffs. Smoltz is 9-5 and sits at 3.07, while Tim Hudson is currently 8-5 at 3.54 and should've won more. Chuck James gives you what he's got every time out. And I'm coming around on Buddy Carlyle. Atlanta is hurt by the loss of Mike Gonzalez, and Bob Wickman is getting shakier instead of more stable, which is the last thing we/they need.

Atlanta is almost always a deal-maker before the deadline. Even last year, significantly out of the race, they added Wickman. This year, they've got, once again, young prospects to hang out there like the carrot on the stick, potentially waving Escobar and Jarod Saltalamacchia in front of other teams because the Braves don't have to have them in 2007. What will the Braves do?

Of course, on this blog, we're going to take Atlanta to win the division...but down the stretch, isn't it easier to see them being the more consistent team than the Mets? New York seems to be playing with more pressure than Atlanta, and more capable of falling apart. If they come together and start winning, they're still more talented and will be in good shape. And perhaps both will still make the playoffs. But for the simple fact that Atlanta is 6-3 against the Mets so far this year, I'm taking ATL to win the East.

In the Central, it comes down to, in part, how much of a believer in the Milwaukee Brewers you are. But when the team that's chasing them is the Cubs, it takes the edge off. Chicago is above .500 and only 4.5 back, and it is Milwaukee in front of them...so who do you like? It's worth noting that St. Louis is still alive and only 7.5 back, but for now we'll leave them out of the conversation. Can Milwaukee actually hold on and finish the way they started? Can the Cubs actually close down the stretch and win the division? Can you name an active pitcher for either team besides Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano? Seriously...you know about Soriano, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez in Chicago...and you should know about Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy in Milwaukee. But this race will come down to pitching. The Brewers have Sheets, and then a bunch of guys who win about half the time, including Jeff Suppan. The Cubs have Zambrano, a nice showing thus far from Ted Lilly who's earning those dollars, and an equally nice showing from Jason Marquis, though like Jorge Sosa, we'll see how long that lasts.

Either team that comes out hot from the All-Star Break is going to have a huge advantage. The Cubs are just as likely to implode as they are take the division lead. But again...it's the Brewers. In the last few seasons, we've seen the Reds and Nationals be in the playoff conversation at the break, and then fold in half down the stretch. I don't think Milwaukee is going to nose dive...but hey, don't you want to see the Cubs in the playoffs? Me too. So we'll cross our fingers and take Chicago to win the NL Central. That is unless St. Louis shows up.

Out West, we're throwing darts again. Outside of Bonds and the Giants, everybody's in it - right now the Padres lead the division by a game on the Dodgers, 3.5 on the D-Backs, and 5.5 on the hard charging Rockies. Pitching and logic says it'll stay Padres and Dodgers, but youth and momentum favor Arizona and Colorado. And if they beat each other up over the next few months, then it becomes easier for the Wild Card to move east...

I pull for the Rockies via Todd Helton, but I'm not sure you can throw your hat in with them - they had to really come on before the break just to make it to .500, and I'm not sure how long that run will last. Conventional wisdom states LA and SD, so we'll go with that - I'll take the Padres to win the division and the Dodgers to win the wild card at this point. Sorry, Mets/Braves loser.

NL MVP? Hard to argue with Prince Fielder right now, but if the Brewers don't make the playoffs, it gets much easier. I'd also throw some votes Jose Reyes' way if the Mets get in. The Padres and Dodgers don't have anybody who beats you with bat alone, and Chipper Jones won't stay healthy long enough to merit consideration if the Braves finish strong. So it comes back to Fielder...I'll take The Prince to hold off lesser challengers and win NL MVP, even if Milwaukee misses the playoffs. Cy Young...well, being that Brad Penny is 10-1 with a 2.39 ERA, I'm gonna stick with him.

So, we're going Braves, Cubs, Padres, with the Dodgers taking the Wild Card. And if it comes to that, then I (of course) like Atlanta against those odds - even though recent playoff history, which dictates that the Braves haven't been to the NLCS since 2001 and the World Series since 1999 - the Braves still have the best combination of hitting and pitching of that field, no matter what Dodger fans say.

This, of course, will all change in probably 14 days. Remember, I picked the White Sox and Rangers to win their divisions back in April. But at the very least, especially in the NL, it should be exciting baseball down the stretch. Hopefully, that starts with the NL finally winning an All-Star Game tonight.

Even more NCAA08 fun...

Custom covers are starting to pop up everywhere...my personal favorite thus far...

Updated NCAA08 Rankings & Impact Players

Here's what looks like a more official list of the Top 25 teams in NCAA08, thanks to GameSpot.com's feature. This list includes the three impact players for each team, with more information including player ratings and screenshots at GameSpot's website:

25. Boston College
QB Matt Ryan
LB Brian Toal
CB DeJuan Tribble

24. Texas A&M
QB Stephen McGee
RB Jorvorskie Lane
DT Red Bryant

23. Boise State
RB Ian Johnson
CB Orlando Scandrick
FS Marty Tadman

22. TCU
RB Aaron Brown
DE Tommy Blake
SS Brian Bonner

21. Florida State
RB Antone Smith
LB Geno Hayes
SS Myron Rolle

20. Rutgers
QB Mike Teel
RB Ray Rice
SS Courtney Green

19. UCLA
RB Chris Markey
DT Brigham Harwell
FS Dennis Keyes

18. Georgia
RB Thomas Brown
WR Mohamed Massaquoi
LB Brandon Miller

17. Penn State
WR Derrick Williams
LB Dan Connor
CB Justin King

16. California
RB Justin Forsett
WR DeSean Jackson
FS Thomas DeCoud

15. Tennessee
QB Erik Ainge
RB LaMarcus Coker
FS Jonathan Hefney

14. Nebraska
QB Sam Keller
LB Steve Octavien
CB Zackary Bowman

13. Auburn
QB Brandon Cox
DE Quentin Groves
LB Tray Blackmon

12. Ohio State
RB Chris Wells
LB James Laurinaitis
CB Malcolm Jenkins

11. Louisville
QB Brian Brohm
WR Harry Douglas
DE Brandon Cox

10. Arkansas
RB Darren McFadden
WR Marcus Monk
DT Marcus Harrison

9. Virginia Tech
RB Branden Ore
LB Xavier Adibi
LB Vince Hall

8. Oklahoma
RB Allen Patrick
FS Darrien Williams
SS Reggie Smith

7. Wisconsin
RB PJ Hill
LB Jonathan Casillas
CB Jack Ikegwuonu

6. West Virginia
QB Pat White
RB Steve Slaton
SS Eric Wicks

5. Texas
RB Jamaal Charles
WR Limas Sweed
DT Frank Okam

4. Florida
QB Tim Tebow
WR Percy Harvin
DE Derrick Harvey

3. LSU
WR Early Doucet
DT Glenn Dorsey
LB Ali Highsmith

2. Michigan
RB Mike Hart
WR Mario Manningham
LB Shawn Crable

1. Southern Cal
QB John David Booty
DE Lawrence Jackson
LB Keith Rivers

NCAA08 Team Rankings

What do you do on your day off while celebrating our nation's birthday? Search the internet for NCAA08 info. And thanks to the people at maddenmatrix.com, here's a look at the Top 25 rankings for NCAA08, releasing in a mere 13 days...

01. Southern Cal
02. Michigan
03. LSU
04. Florida
05. Texas
06. Oklahoma
07. Wisconsin
08. West Virginia
09. Virginia Tech
10. Arkansas
11. Louisville
12. Ohio State
13. Auburn
14. Nebraska
15. Tennessee
16. Georgia
17. Penn State
18. California
19. UCLA
20. Rutgers
21. Hawaii
22. TCU
23. Boise State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boston College

Ratings are subject to change prior to release - this list was partially compiled three weeks ago at an EA Community Day event - but hopefully more information will present itself in the next two weeks. No demo yet on XBOX Live, but there are several videos and trailers describing new features in the game that have popped up on the marketplace. Stay tuned...

Random Thoughts - Wednesday July 4

College Football Links of Interest
Ivan Maisel has selected College Football's 100 Defining Moments over at ESPN.com. The link will take you to the complete list, where you can click on each heading to see pictures and more in-depth analysis for each moment. The Vols made the list, with Clint Stoerner's fumble from 1998 at #75, and some old school magic with the 1928 win over Alabama coming in at #70. Doug Flutie's '84 hail mary edged out The Play from Cal-Stanford '82 for the top spot on the list.

Plays making the cut from recent memory:
03. Kordell Stewart's Hail Mary (Colorado-Michigan 94)
05. Vince Young's pylon dive to win (Texas-USC Rose Bowl 05)
15. Boise State's trick plays to victory (BSU-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl 06)
17. Pass interference in overtime (OSU-Miami Fiesta Bowl 02)
20. Tommie Frazier's TD run (Nebraska-Florida Fiesta Bowl 96)
31. Reggie Bush's punt return thru the fog (USC-Oregon State 04)
32. Desmond Howard strikes the pose (Michigan-Ohio State 91)
47. Florida State finally wins it all (FSU-Nebraska Orange Bowl 93)
48. George Teague and the Tide roll (Alabama-Miami Sugar Bowl 92)
49. Kicked ball keeps Nebraska alive (Nebraska-Missouri 97)
52. Warrick Dunn goes 79 yards to beat Florida (FSU-Florida 93)
53. Rocket's nullified return (ND-Colorado Orange Bowl 90)
59. Boston College upsets #1 Notre Dame (BC-ND 93)
60. Wide Right I (Miami-FSU 91)
63. Michael Vick in the Sugar Bowl (FSU-VT Sugar Bowl 99)
65. The Bush Push (USC-Notre Dame 05)
75. Clint Stoerner fumbles it away (Tennessee-Arkansas 98)
77. Spurrier arrives by beating Alabama (Alabama-Florida 90)
79. Northwestern clinches the Rose Bowl bid (NW-Penn State 95)
80. Texas throws on 4th and 1 to win (TEX-NEB Big 12 Title 96)
85. UNLV's 100 yard fumble return (UNLV-Baylor 99)
92. Iowa's hail mary beats LSU (Iowa-LSU Capital One Bowl 04)
97. Katie Hnida attempts an extra point (New Mexico-UCLA 02)
100. Teammates carry injured Leftwich (Marshall-Akron 02)

CollegeFootballNews.com is running through several features right now, including early predictions of the Top 50 games of 2007, and a recap of the 100 most exciting finishes since 1970, as well as continuing their team-by-team extensive previews. You can find links to all these features from their main page.

59 days...

Some Thoughts on Dane Bradshaw's Book
A solid 90% of my library consists of theology and what the folks at the Christian bookstore I used to work at would call "Christian Living" selections, and so it's always nice for me to find something to read to unplug from all of that from time to time. So before Harry Potter fills that void in a couple weeks, Bradshaw's book was a welcome distraction. For diehard Vol fans who can fill in the gaps from memory as he works his way through the 2006-07 season, I doubt you'd find any problems with it. As pure Tennessee athletics literature, it's great by itself. But perhaps even more than you expect, Bradshaw writes with real honesty - it's arguably a PG-13 book, and it's better for it. I got more laughs out of some of the stories in the book, which I won't spoil for you, than of anything I've read in a long time. And above all, it increases your respect for both Dane Bradshaw and Bruce Pearl. He was a smart guy for choosing to write it, and it would've sold copies given the environment no matter its quality. But his honesty and sense of humor bleed through, between funny stories and his own struggles with shooting slumps or injuries. For all Tennesseee basketball fans, you'll enjoy this book. Well done.

Ray Allen in Boston
If you're wondering why I haven't said anything about this in the days since it happened, it's because I both don't know exactly how I feel about it, and because I have the unsettling feeling that the Celtics aren't done yet. For the record, I like Ray Allen and always have, I respect his game, his work ethic, and his attitude both on and off the court. He was better than he ever got credit for being in Milwaukee because he played in Milwaukee (take that, Yi). And the facts are the facts and he isn't getting younger, much like Paul Pierce.

Allen was/is a solid player who represents an effort by the front office to show some sort of commitment to winning, and to appease, in the same manner, their all star in Pierce. Which, I guess, is nice...but is it any good? On the list of Boston's needs, a scoring guard/forward wasn't at the top...because they already have one. You could argue that they needed a veteran presence, but then I would argue they also needed big help inside, so why not make your veteran move there?

The 2007 Draft is believed to be extremely deep, and so the pick at #5 - whether that's Jeff Green's career in Seattle/Las Vegas, or Corey Brewer/Yi/Joakim Noah/etc. if the Celtics had kept the pick - could easily develop into a legitimate superstar, with considerably more mileage than Ray Allen. And there are lots of other ways that this goes wrong. But the reality is, the on court performance will dictate the success or failure of this trade, and of this administration, who clearly made the move to keep their jobs under the guise of "progress". Even if Boston makes no more additions - and still holding Theo Ratliff's contract and still needing a big man means Boston is probably still in the market - the bar is going to be higher than "just make the playoffs". Winning the Atlantic Division, which is probably the worst in professional sports, is a deceptive goal. No, the Celtics need to advance to at least the second round, right away, for people to feel at least decent about the move. The Celtics didn't completely mortgage the future - they've still got Rondo and Al Jefferson in the starting lineup, with more youth on the bench - but you can never tell which move they're going to pursue next. Like I said, I'm undecided. And the season will decide for all of us.

The Biploar Braves
Lose five, win five, lose three. In the first skid of five, they scored one run and everyone was having 06 flashbacks. In the winning streak, they blew up for 41 runs - they won big, they won small, they won from in front and behind. Sunday afternoon, the streak should've been six after they plated two runs in the top of the 9th to take the lead on the Marlins, but the suddenly unstable Bob Wickman gave up a homer in the home half to tie it, and the Marlins won in extras. And it was the sort of loss that made you think "uh oh, that one's going to linger..." And it has - now on the West Coast until the All Star Break, playing those 10:15 games that make me have to wake up and wonder, the Braves lost a Smoltz start on Monday, and scored six runs in the first three innings last night and still lost. The good news is, the Mets still suck too. But Atlanta's got two more in LA before playing three in San Diego before we hit the break. The Braves need to level off, then they need to start winning with greater consistency if they hope to stay ahead of the Phillies and make up the 4 games they currently sit behind the Mets.

If Tank Johnson can be released...
...then why are Chris Henry and Pacman Jones still employed? Michael Smith and Michael Holley had an excellent discussion about this yesterday, with Smith filling in for Jim Rome, which means I can tolerate Rome is Burning. The logic supposedly goes that Johnson is more expendable than Henry and Pacman, and the Bears can afford to cut him loose. The Titans have publicly stated that they've moved on with Pacman. And I'm not saying it's necessary to go ahead and sever the ties...but, especially with Henry, I think both were more deserving of being cut than Johnson. There's also news today of Dominic Rhodes being suspended (Tony Dungy looking smarter all the time), and a Florida offensive lineman discharged an AK-47 in public a few days ago, who's also been dismissed. Yikes.

But all this talk about the NFL having a bad image is out of place, and, as Brian Urlacher said on the same program, this is what people have to talk about when there are no games being played. The NFL is like anywhere else - you've got human beings there, in their unique situations, who are capable of both great good and extremely poor decisions. And some lean the one way, and some go the other. Such is life.

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 15. Wisconsin

15. Wisconsin
If you're looking for a dark horse for National Champion, the Badgers are worth consideration. The good news is that 18 starters return from a 12-1 team that only lost at Michigan in 2006. The bad news is the Big 10 schedule makers were unkind. The end result, as predicted here, will probably be somewhere inbetween the BCS hopes the fanbase carries, and the lower tier of the everybody else in the Big 10. Make no mistake - Wisconsin is good enough to run the table. But if/when they stumble, they'll find themselves the least likely of the big four in the Big 10 to earn a high profile bowl bid or BCS at large, when everyone else would rather see Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State. Such is life in Madison.



If you're coach Bret Bielema, you've got a tough encore on your hands. Last year, with a young team and taking the reigns from Barry Alvarez, he led the Badgers - who didn't play Ohio State - to big wins over Penn State, Iowa, and Arkansas to close out the season and set the tone for 2007. The Badgers haven't won the Big 10 since Ron Dayne was playing, and will once again have a tough time qualifying as a BCS at-large selection. So, in a sense, it's title or bust for the Badgers with this team, this year.



Wisconsin returns nine starters on offense, but the two they don't will be missed. QB John Stocco was a three year starter, and OT Joe Thomas was the #3 pick in the NFL Draft. While the rest of the line will have to pick up Thomas' slack, Stocco's replacement is Tyler Donovan, who went for 17 of 24, 228 and a win at Iowa last year when Stocco was hurt.



The headline grabber on offense is PJ Hill, who remember, is just a sophomore. Last year, the 5'11" 242 wrecking ball captured the Big 10 rushing title with 1569 yards and 15 TDs. There are durability questions (in Lindy's, Hill says "I like contact. A lot."), and it may still be unfair to crown him the second coming of the Dayne Train, but Hill is definitely a weapon that will help the Badgers dictate the pace to their liking. Again, four starters back on the line further helps that cause.

Wide receivers Luke Swan and Paul Hubbard, plus tight end Travis Beckum all return. These will be friendly faces as Donovan gets aquainted with the starting job. Playing in the Big 10, having to outscore someone almost never happens, and this offense is good enough, even if they're not explosive, to set the pace and get the job done.

They're helped, of course, by the defense that returns seven. Last year, this unit was 5th overall in total defense, while finishing 2nd in both pass defense and scoring defense (12.1 points per game allowed). Three starters return up front, including end Matt Shaughnessy and tackles Jason Chapman and Nick Hayden. The linebackers should be equally dangerous, with Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy back. Both corners return as well with Jack Ikegwuonu and Allen Langford. The really good news about this entire unit: of the returning starters, only Hayden at DT is a senior. Both safeties, Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter, are coming back from injury in 2006. Wisconsin may not dazzle you on offense or defense, but they're good enough on both sides to win every game they play.

2007 Wisconsin Schedule
09/01 - vs Washington State
09/08 - at UNLV
09/15 - vs The Citadel
09/22 - vs Iowa
09/29 - vs Michigan State
10/06 - at Illinois
10/13 - at Penn State
10/20 - vs Northern Illinois
10/27 - vs Indiana
11/03 - at Ohio State
11/10 - vs Michigan
11/17 - at Minnesota

Final Analysis: Can you name the Big 10 opponents the Badgers avoid? If you said Purdue and Northwestern, you're right. That means the Badgers must face the full strength of the upper tier of this conference. The October 13 game at Penn State will be testy enough, but the back-to-back November dates at Ohio State and vs Michigan may be the dividing line for this team's championship aspirations.

I've got no ill will towards Wisconsin, I have great respect for their program and their playing style. I'd love to see them win the Big 10, actually. I just don't think they will. Michigan is loaded with talent, and it's taken a near-perfect record to win the Big 10 every year this decade. I don't like their chances in Happy Valley on October 13, and I don't like their chances to sweep Ohio State and Michigan. I do think they'll get one of those two - they're almost too good not to - but I think it'll be same old, same old come bowl selection Sunday, with someone else winning the conference title, Wisconsin getting overlooked for the BCS at-large selections, and another January 1 in Florida. Which is still a good year, I'd just say it's getting old in Madison.