Wednesday, May 30, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 20. Nebraska

20. Nebraska
Continuing the Big 12 theme, the now-constant favorites in the North Division enter 2007 looking to continue to make progress en route to a return to the national elite. It's been six years since Nebraska's been a real threat, and while they probably don't have the overall talent to get back in that conversation this year, they're also good enough to give anyone and everyone a game.

With Bill Callahan and his West Coast system now firmly entrenched, even if you're not having flashbacks to Eric Crouch and Scott Frost while you watch them play, these guys still know how to win in Lincoln. And the defense will once again be stout. So in the 4th year of the Callahan administration, and coming off a division title last year, the bar is rising. At the very least, Nebraska needs to get to San Antonio - anything less will be a colossal disappointment. At the very best, this team is thinking BCS. And the fans who drink the kool aid in Lincoln as much as I do for the Vols have their sights set on the crystal football, because that's what Nebraska is supposed to do.

If that's to be the case, at this point or down the road, they've got to start winning the big games instead of just being competitive. The Huskers had Texas in the crosshairs last year and fumbled it away. Then they went through a total letdown the next week in surrendering 41 points to Oklahoma State in another loss. They were worn down 21-7 against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, then got more of the same in the Cotton Bowl against Auburn in a 17-14 loss. So they were right there against three of the nation's elite, and came up short every time. They won't have to wait long to see if things have changed in 2007: Southern Cal comes calling on September 15.

Nebraska's offense still runs through the quarterback, though he's not quite asked to run the triple option anymore. Instead, Nebraska will reload in the passin game, as Zac Taylor graduates to give way to Arizona State transfer Sam Keller, a solid QB who has plenty to prove and should play well with a chip on his shoulder. Should Keller falter, they've got a capable backup in Joe Ganz. Toting the rock to replace Brandon Jackson will be Marlon Lucky, but a knee injury in the spring game may slow him down a bit.

The wide receivers can play too. Maurice Purify and Terrence Nunn, seniors alike, should help spread the defenses just the way Callahan likes it, and JB Phillips - another senior at tight end - should also help accomplish more offensive production in 2007. All three interior linemen return.

While the defense on the whole should be good, its ultimate success will depend on the early progress of a defensive line that's replacing all four starters from last year, including Adam Carriker. The newcomers will be mostly juniors, so at least they have experience in the program.

As weak as the d-line may potentially be, the linebackers could be that good. That starts with Bo Ruud on the outside, who was All Big 12 in 2006 and should lead the LB corps. Steve "I have an awesome last name" Octavien will play the opposite side, with Corey McKeon in the middle. What gets through the weaker line should be slowed in part by these three. The secondary returns three of four, with a cloud of mystery surrounding the fate of Zack Bowman, who missed all of 06 with a knee and then injured his other knee in the spring. But even without him, the secondary has enough talent to rise to the challenge, and do a better job against the pass than their 2006 counterparts.
2007 Nebraska Schedule
09/01 - vs Nevada
09/08 - at Wake Forest
09/15 - vs Southern Cal
09/22 - vs Ball State
09/29 - vs Iowa State
10/06 - at Missouri
10/13 - vs Oklahoma State
10/20 - vs Texas A&M
10/27 - at Texas
11/03 - at Kansas
11/10 - vs Kansas State
11/23 - at Colorado (Friday)
Final Analysis: While September will determine how much of a national player Nebraska is going to be, October will determine the rise and fall of their season. At Wake Forest, where there's zero home field advantage, and home against Southern Cal, the odds may be with them, but both of those teams are BCS combatants from last year, and USC is without question the most talented team in the country. Nebraska could lose both of them. Or, they could win both of them and get back in that national conversation they so long to be in once more. The last time anyone doubted Southern Cal on the road, they went to Auburn and squashed the Tigers, which was two National Championships ago. But nothing is free in Lincoln. So you never can tell...
October will be more important as the Big 12 games come rolling in. You will not find A&M on this countdown, I think they're almost as overrated as their head coach. So no worries there. And I feel like Nebraska had their chance with Texas last year and blew it, so winning in Austin might be out of the question. Still, with Oklahoma absent from the rotation, this smells like a 10-2 team easy, and an easy pick to win the North. And if they can get to San Antonio, anything can happen.
I don't think they'll win the Big 12 - in fact, I think they'll lose to Texas twice. But those might be the only games they lose. Seriously, seriously, seriously...watch out for the upset on Southern Cal on 9/15. Nebraska is still a program that knows how to win. Losing in your conference title game is a great way to get left out of the BCS, and playing an SEC team in the Cotton Bowl is a great way to end your season on a lousy skid. So even if they lose three or four games in 07, expect Nebraska to be a factor both in the Big 12 and nationally. They're down here at 20 because I don't think it's going to end well for them, but I think they make it more than interesting and you're talking about them in late October in your BCS projections. College football needs Nebraska to be good. 2007 can be the year that they validate that need, even if they do so by being on the losing end of some really big games. If pushed, I'll take them to upset the Trojans, lose twice to Texas and fall in the Cotton Bowl to an SEC school to be named later. Is that a good year? Well, it's a good year with a bad aftertaste. That'll have to do.

Something to help keep you warm through the long night...

"The regular-season conference schedules we play in the SEC are very difficult. Maybe some of the other conferences have teams like Michigan that play just two or three tough conference games a year." - Phillip Fulmer, SEC Spring Business Meetings

92 days.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 21. Texas Tech

21. Texas Tech
Aside from the relative absurdity of picking the Vols #1, there are two teams in this blog's preseason Top 25 that you won't find in any other national Top 25. But who likes conformity? This is the first of them - the Red Raiders of Texas Tech, who look to continue their decade-long run of being the most fun offense to watch in college football.
Under Mike Leach since 2000, the Red Raiders have averaged 470 yards of total offense per game, and in the last five seasons, have won 8+ games every year and have finished in the Top 20 twice. They can be maddeningly inconsistent - last year they scored 31 in a win at Texas A&M and 31 in a close home loss to Texas, but also lost to TCU 12-3, and in one of the more inexplicable scores of the year, lost at hapless Colorado 30-6.

These inconsistencies were on center stage in the Insight Bowl, where the Red Raiders fell behind 38-7 early in the third quarter, then rallied to tie the game on a 52 yard field goal at the end of regulation, and then win it on an overtime touchdown - celebration pictured, as you might've guessed - 44-41 over Minnesota, the greatest comeback in bowl history. Point being: you can change the cast, and though it may not lead to any 12-0 seasons, this system will always be exciting, and it will usually work.

Cast change is a big issue in 2007. This team is nowhere near as talented as the team ranked behind them in Oklahoma. In fact, this might be the least talented team in this entire poll. But once again, 8+ wins in each of the last five seasons. You'd be foolish to just write them off in 2007.

The good news first: starting QB Graham Harrell returns, the architect of the Insight Bowl rally and yet another gunslinger in the TTU offense. Harrell cracked the 300 yard mark 10 times last year, and had several 400+ performances, including a jaw dropping 512 against Texas. He knows the system, and a year older he'll be better at running it to perfection. RB Shannon Woods also returns. Three of four starters in the secondary return.
Now, the aforementioned cast change. The top three pass catchers from last season - including current Tennessee Titan Joel Filani - are gone. Four starters on the offensive line are gone. If the system is in fact this good, it'll at least be tested with all these new faces in 2007. Change hits the defense as well, with key components on the front seven also needing to be replaced. For a team that's been excellent - with a few frustrating exceptions - at simply outscoring the opposition, they may have to up the ante in 2007 as the defense tries to hold together. And with a new line and new wide receivers...you can see why lots of people are writing them just outside the Top 25 this season.
But not me. Again, 8+ wins every year since 2002. Not everybody can say that. And sometimes the best method for predicting a team's success in an upcoming season - the schedule - works in their favor.
They'll get three relative tune-ups before traveling to Oklahoma State. The Big 12 run starts for real in October, but they don't catch Nebraska from the North. So they'll have an opportunity to separate themselves from the others in the middle of the Big 12 pack before it all comes crashing down in November, at Texas and home with Oklahoma in the final two games.
2007 Texas Tech Schedule
09/03 - at SMU (Monday)
09/08 - vs UTEP
09/15 - at Rice
09/22 - at Oklahoma State
09/29 - vs Northwestern State
10/06 - vs Iowa State
10/13 - vs Texas A&M
10/20 - at Missouri
10/27 - vs Colorado
11/03 - at Baylor
11/10 - at Texas
11/17 - vs Oklahoma
Final Analysis: Something else you may notice about the schedule up there is that it does not include an off week (which technically they'll take on November 24). So that could spell trouble when they're coming down the already difficult stretch. In the Big 12, you start with Texas and Oklahoma. Nebraska should also be in the discussion this season. Lots of people like Texas A&M, but I'm not one of them. From there, you've got gridlock: Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Kansas State, Kansas and the Red Raiders are all comparable, and someone has to emerge from that pack. I do not think this team is title material in this conference. But I do think that they've got the schedule and the system to put together an early season run, much like Missouri last year, to get your attention before bowing out in November. I do not believe in Texas A&M, so I'll take the Red Raiders to win that one in an upset. But aside from the Texas/Oklahoma finish, there's not another game on that schedule that they can't win, or would even be considered an upset if they did. They're Texas Tech and they're young, which will mean inconsistency and another loss tacked on somewhere. But an 8-4/9-3 finish, and a win in a second tier bowl game, will be enough to get them in the final Top 25, which is what this blog is trying to project. They're not better than Oklahoma - but they might finish the season ranked higher than them. The system works.

Friday, May 25, 2007

What John Smoltz means to the Braves

For the third time this year, the Braves and Mets played a rubber game in determining who would walk away with the series. And for the third time this year, it was Atlanta, in dramatic fashion, who came out on top.

On April 8, Kelly Johnson went deep in the first at-bat of the game, Kyle Davies gave up only two earned with eight Ks through 6 2/3, and the Braves punched two across in the bottom of the eighth to turn a 2-1 hole into a 3-2 win.

On April 22 at Shea, in Smoltz-Glavine II, Kelly Johnson again went deep - this time on the first pitch - and the Braves had a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the sixth when Smoltz, uncharacteristically, came unglued and allowed five earned and the Mets surged in front 6-3. But, no worries - once Glavine came out, Edgar Renteria hit a three run jack in the seventh to tie it, and Kelly Johnson hit a three run jack in the eighth, his second of the day, to give the Braves the 9-6 lead that would become the final score.

Last night, Atlanta punched runs across in the first and second inning off Glavine, and then we settled in for the pitcher's duel that everyone expects when these two take the mound. Glavine settled down to finish with six innings of work, giving up only five hits and two earned. Smoltz did him one better, scattering seven hits in seven innings of shutout baseball, with five Ks and no walks. The trusty Braves bullpen made it interesting against the mighty Mets, but again Atlanta won, 2-1. Three crucial games, three crucial situations, three Atlanta wins. The Braves are now 6-3 against the Mets in 2007, and have moved back to within 1.5 games for the division lead - and they'll have a chance this weekend against the Phillies in Atlanta to once again emphasize that this is a two team race.

But the win last night was bigger than the division race or Smoltz vs. Glavine. It was win #200 for the ageless wonder, who becomes the only player in major league history with 200 wins and 150 saves. In his last two starts - at Fenway last weekend, and at Turner Field last night - against the two best offenses in baseball, Smoltz has pitched 14 innings of shutout baseball. In 20 2/3 career innings at Fenway during interleague play, Smoltz has never allowed an earned run. Right now, his record is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.58. The seven wins are the most in the NL and tied with Josh Beckett and John Lackey for the MLB lead. The 2.58 ERA is 6th in the NL - Tim Hudson is 3rd at 2.42 - and 9th overall. Smoltz appears to be an All-Star lock, and a potential Cy Young candidate. Which should be no surprise.

John Smoltz is 40 years old. He's been an Atlanta Brave since 1988. Over those twenty years, including the lost 2000 season with Tommy John surgery, he has been an integral part of everything good that happened to the Braves. He and Chipper Jones are the only players on the current roster with World Series rings. And he is - and has been for quite some time - the only Brave on the roster who was there in 1991 when it all went right. He can tell you all the stories. He can share all the memories. He's been there, every step along the way.

He hasn't always been asked to be the man - in fact, that's a rather new development. In the beginning, Smoltz was there with Glavine and Steve Avery as part of a trio of dominant young pitchers, which became a quartet with the arrival of Greg Maddux in 1993. His regular season win totals in the early years of Atlanta's run aren't impressive - 14-13 in 91, 15-12 in 92, 15-11 in 93, 6-10 in 94 (strike shortened), and 12-7 in the strike shortened regular season in 95. But his ERA is under 4.00 in each of those years, except for the short 94 season. In 92, he was under 3.00.

In that crowded rotation of Atlanta superpitchers just waiting to become hall of famers, Smoltz made his early niche when it counted most - in the playoffs. If you want to complain about Maddux and Glavine, you can say that they were softer in the playoffs (except for Glavine's incredible performance in the 95 World Series). Without question, Atlanta's two best playoff pitchers were Avery and Smoltz. In Game 7 of the 91 NLCS, in Pittsburgh, Smoltz pitched a complete game shutout and put the Braves in the World Series. That alone is enough to put him in Braves folklore. The next year, he again won two games in the NLCS, and again was on the hill in Game 7, when Francisco Cabrera drove home Sid Bream to send the Braves back to the World Series.

Smoltz also has two World Series wins, in the 92 series with the Blue Jays, and at Yankee Stadium in the 96 World Series before everything fell apart. His career postseason numbers: 15-4, 2.65 ERA, two complete games, one shutout, 4 saves in 5 chances, 194 Ks in 207 innings. Sick.

With a World Series ring in tow from 95, Smoltz went 24-8 with a 2.94 ERA and won the Cy Young in 1996, which concluded an incredible run of Atlanta pitchers winning that award (Glavine in 91, Maddux with the Cubs in 92 and with the Braves in 93-95, Smoltz in 96). Glavine would win again in 98, but that same year Smoltz was 17-3 with a 2.90 ERA.

When he destroyed his elbow in spring training before the 2000 season, and after making a few starts into the 2001 season, the Braves moved him to closer coming off the John Rocker debacle. And it became an excellent marriage, as Atlanta continued its postseason run and Smoltz set a new NL record with 55 saves in 2002. He continued that role with dominance in 2003 with 45 saves and in 2004 with 44. However, upset that he was becoming a non-factor in the postseason, Smoltz returned to the starting lineup in 2005 and went right back to work: 14-7 with a 3.06 ERA.

In 2005/2006, Tim Hudson might've been considered the staff ace in Atlanta. And Hudson's numbers in 2007 certainly qualify him as such. But this season especially, from opening day to last night, Smoltz has taken up the mantle up number one starter, and has lived up to the billing. And what's great about watching the future Hall of Famer is, among other things, the fact that his competitive fire burns just as bright, if not brighter today, than ever. He wants to win with everything he has - you can hear it in postgame interviews, especially in his last victories over Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, that he wanted that one bad, and he got it. The Braves are 4-0 against Maddux and Glavine this season. John Smoltz is a winner, period. And he wants you to know it - you can't help but see it when you watch him pitch. But he's even bigger than that.

John Smoltz has become, in 20 years, the face of the franchise. From a #3 starter in the best rotation in baseball history, to a Cy Young Award winner, to a destroyed elbow, to the best closer in baseball, to the dominant starter on one of baseball's best teams today. 200 wins and 150 saves. And a significant piece of every division title and trip to the World Series. Smoltz has one ring, and will help put Atlanta in position to earn another one this season. When Braves fans seek continuity, Smoltz is there. Our stories are his stories. And his story continues to get better. Smoltz doesn't appear to be anywhere close to done at 40. And there will always be contract talks and issues, and should he ever pitch anywhere else, it'll be a sad, sad day in Atlanta. But for now, he's our man. He's our ace. And he lives up to it. John Smoltz has become the face of the Atlanta Braves. And we couldn't ask for a better one after 20 years.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

This week needs to get better in a hurry.

Let's start with the collective heart punch the NBA's lottery ball spinning machine dealt to the Boston Celtics nation last night. Again, when it comes to the Celtics, I'll default to Bill Simmons. The ounce of optimism I have left says that if the Hawks take Mike Conley Jr. at 3, the Celtics will be fools to pass up on either Al Horford or Brandan Wright. But nothing would surprise me at this point.

Let's also say that, with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant headed to Portland and Seattle, this is bad for the NBA. Stephen A. Smith made this point last night, and it's very valid - you're never going to see these guys on national television. They also just eliminated the chance of the Eastern Conference gaining ground on the overly dominant West - which this year had the three best teams, five of the best six, and eight of the best thirteen. And perhaps most importantly, the NBA needs, more than anything else, needs the Celtics, Lakers, Knicks and Sixers to be good. Well, three of those teams are in the lottery for a reason and didn't land Oden/Durant, and now the Lakers are facing an even steeper uphill battle in the West. Don't think that the Blazers aren't a playoff team with Greg Oden right now. This means that the Baby Bulls are the only big market, big money team with any talent, and they don't have anything resembling a marketable superstar. Bad business all around.

Then, eliminating the "Would you sell your soul for Keyshawn Johnson?" question posed here on Monday, Keyshawn decided he'd rather retire and work for ESPN than play for the Titans. And I'm the one that said I'd rather not have him. But there's something about "no thanks, I'd rather retire" that doesn't sit well with me.

And, although this is a sports blog, let's throw in the fact that, for the first time in my entire life, Jack Bauer let me down all season, and didn't come through and save it in the season finale. Heroes was even more disappointing with the season coming to a close. So I take the pieces of my broken heart and place them in Lost's hands tonight...

...of course, there's still baseball. The Braves are the savior of the day, off an 8-1 blasting of the Mets behind 8 innings and a 3 run homer from Kyle Davies. And the Vol Baseball team is playing for its postseason life in the SEC Baseball Tournament, starting today...against #1 Vanderbilt. Read that sentence again. Vanderbilt is number one at something. What's going on here?! Is there no justice?!

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 22. Oklahoma

22. Oklahoma
I can all but assure you that this is as low as you're going to find Boomer Sooner anywhere between now and September. In a year where it looks like the Big 12 might actually be the worst of the big six conferences, the Sooners enter the season once again thinking that if they can beat Texas, they can play for it all. And they might be right.
You have to wonder if the natives are getting restless in Norman. Bob Stoops may have been too good too fast - which is not to imply whatsoever that he might be anywhere near the hot seat, but truth be told, the Sooners have been going backwards over the last seven years. Of course, you have to start that way after winning the National Championship in 2000. But OU became one of many teams in the early parts of this decade that had a shot at becoming the dominant program in America, and then lost at a crucial juncture. In 2001, it was to Nebraska. In 2002, it was Oklahoma State. In 2003, the Sooners were the unbeatable juggernaut behind Jason White that suddenly fell apart, getting blasted by Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, then losing to LSU in the Sugar Bowl. In 2004, the Sooners were again an unbeatable juggernaut that many people, including myself, thought would dust Southern Cal for the title. Instead, they lost 55-19. And after struggling with Adrian Peterson's injury issues and handing the Big 12 crown to Texas in 2005, the Sooners still rebounded to win the Big 12 last year, losing on a fluke to Oregon, losing again to Texas, but still winning the conference...only to be on the losing end of the Boise State game. Since 2000, the Sooners have finished 1, 6, 3, 3, 3, 22, and 11 in the final Top 25, and have won the Big 12 in the even numbered years this decade. Which means, of course, that someone else will win it this year.
Success in Norman is still the National Championship, and anything less will not satisfy. So, aside from the schedule, there are two factors to look at in determining OU's potential success in 2007. The first is that they return 17 of 22 starters as the defending Big 12 Champions. The second is that they don't return Paul Thompson or Adrian Peterson. So, will this team find a new backfield and rally around their veterans to make a run at New Orleans, or will the loss of those two players spell a disappointing and frustrating 2007?

Thompson will actually be more difficult to replace. A-Pete, when healthy, was a force to be reckoned with in college football, as one of the most dominant and fun to watch RBs in recent memory. But the Sooners have both experience and talent in replacing him - his collarbone injury last year opened the door for Allen Patrick, Jacob Gutierrez, and Chris Brown, and redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray blew up in the spring game. So they've got options. Thompson, who was a wide receiver before Rhett Bomar wanted to give you a great deal on a new car, was nationally undeappreciated, and guided this team through the rest of the Big 12 schedule unblemished outside of the Texas loss, much of it without Peterson. And even in OU's most successful times, they've gone undefeated twice with Josh Heupel and Jason White at the helm, neither of which had any NFL talent. So the new guy doesn't need to be flashy, he just needs to do what Stoops needs him to do.

That new guy at quarterback looks to be Sam Bradford coming out of the spring game, but competition reigns supreme, with Joey Halzel and Keith Nichol still in the running. The rest of the offense is in good shape, with WR targets that look ready to break out and an always solid offensive line.

The defense loses both starting ends and needs help there, but the real strength of what was already a great unit will be the secondary, where all four starters return, including Nic Harris over there. In a conference where not everybody will be fielding explosive offenses, the Sooners can once again look to dominate on defense while the offense comes along. And they'll also field perhaps the nation's best kicker in Garrett Hartley.
Which brings us to the schedule. They can't phone it in early, with Miami coming to Norman on September 8 for a chance to renew some old late 80s hatred. But Miami's going to be in much worse shape in terms of trying to put something together, so that's advantage Sooners. As usual, the season appears to be made or broken in the first week of October in the Red River Shootout, as the Longhorns have just as many, if not more, reasons to think they can win it all. The usual November landmines - Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and the Bedlam Game - will await if the Sooners make it that far undefeated, as well as the Big 12 title game in San Antonio. The schedule isn't easy, but it's not hard either. Oklahoma could go a long way...
2007 Oklahoma Schedule
09/01 - vs North Texas
09/08 - vs Miami
09/15 - vs Utah State
09/21 - at Tulsa (Friday)
09/29 - at Colorado
10/06 - vs Texas (at Dallas)
10/13 - vs Missouri
10/20 - at Iowa State
10/27 - off week
11/03 - vs Texas A&M
11/10 - vs Baylor
11/17 - at Texas Tech
11/24 - vs Oklahoma State
Final Analysis: You can make a thoroughly rational argument for Oklahoma to win the Big 12, or to even play for it all, even if they're not one of the two or three most talented teams in the country. You can look at the schedule and see that even if they lose to Miami and/or Texas, they can still easily win the Big 12 or get a BCS at-large bid. However, the hole left by Thompson and Peterson is a big one, and aside from the fact that 2007 is the year I finally stop picking them to beat Texas (which worked out really well until the last two years), and even if I think they'll get past Miami, I think they're going to get picked off at least once in the Big 12, and maybe more. I have the utmost respect for Bob Stoops from his Florida days and beyond, and OU is still one of the five best football programs in America right now. But you just can't replace a steady quarterback and a two-Heismans-if-not-injured tailback without feeling it here or there. I've got them ranked this far down, at 22, because I also think they'll play someone more talented and lose in their bowl game. Oklahoma is a good football team. I just don't think 2007 will be their year.

Monday, May 21, 2007

Random Thoughts - Monday May 21

See, I'm not totally crazy...
While Athlon has been counting down their preseason Top 25 on their website for the past three weeks and has the Vols locked in at #20 - which is where I had them back in late January on this blog in a talent-based Top 25 - Lindy's has started counting down on their website five at a time, and while as of this afternoon that countdown had only gotten teams 16-25 covered, The Knoxville News-Sentinel reported today that the Vols will land at #7 in Lindy's countdown, which is the highest I've seen them anywhere. That magazine also has the Vols picked as SEC East Champions - I'm sure the vast majority will be picking LSU for the overall conference winner. So as we march on through my Top 25 on this blog, at least now there's a little outside evidence to support the idea that the Vols can be that good. Lindy's has them at #7, I'll have them at #1...same difference, right? Remember: crazy, not stupid.

Dane Bradshaw's brain is almost as big as his heart...
Because he was clever enough to keep a journal of Vol Basketball activity over the last year, and has now compiled it in a book. Vertical Leap: Inside the Rise of Tennessee Basketball chronicles the 2006-07 season from offseason to elimination, and has a forward written by Bruce Pearl. While the book may make one uncomfortable with all the man-love between Bradshaw and Pearl that's sure to be in there, it should also become a must-read for any Vol fan, and hopefully earn Bradshaw some credit and some financial support for being the mastermind behind this brilliant idea. Amazon.com has a page up for the book, which is scheduled for release later this week.

Is Keyshawn Johnson the answer in Nashville?
When drafting for fantasy football, I always make a list of players under the heading "Do not draft under any circumstances." And while T.O. is the once and future king of that particular list, where his name is written in permanent ink at the top, Keyshawn Johnson isn't too far down. It works like this: a player who was deactivated by his head coach for more than half the season for issues other than injury (2003 - Tampa Bay) is on the blacklist. Period.

In religion, there's this interesting balance between theology and reality. Where what sometimes happens is, a person has a theological belief or perspective, and often times a very strong and passionate one, on a particular issue...and then that issue becomes real and personal to them, and suddenly not only do they find themselves reevaluating the entire issue at hand, sometimes they abandon ship altogether and jump to the other side. For instance, a person can have a certain belief on suicide, and then when someone they know kills themself, it changes their entire perspective.

So the reality of this situation - and not just in your upcoming fantasy draft, but in the real on-field world of the NFL - is that despite all beliefs and thoughts that I and many others may have about the Keyshawn Johnsons of the world - "I'd never have a player like him on my team." - the Titans appear to be beyond desperate in terms of needing help at wide receiver. And so here's the 6'4" 34 year old, out on the market and looking for those big dollars that the Titans can still afford to spend because they've spent their offseason doing nothing but dropping the ball, so they can spend their regular season doing nothing but bending over. Unless...

Unless Keyshawn Johnson can save the day. Because, at this point, who else is going to? Let's not even talk about LenDale White or Chris Henry running with the ones at tailback. Let's not even talk about Michael Griffin over Robert Meachem. Let's just play the hand we're dealt - the Titans will be without the services of David Givens into the fall as he recovers from reconstructive knee surgery. That leaves Vince Young, when he's not running around or for his life, with about a dozen tight ends to throw to, and zero proven threats at wide receiver. The Titans, sans Givens, don't even have a player on the depth chart who's a proven third option at wide receiver on any of the other 31 teams in the league. And two of these guys are supposed to be lining up and making a difference on Opening Weekend?

These guys, by the way, are Roydell Williams, Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby, Justin Gage, and a quartet of rookies taken outside of the first two rounds. Like I said, these guys.

So what do you do with Keyshawn, who may not even want to come to Nashville in the first place? He visited on Friday, but will have other offers and says he has no timetable. Does he become the veteran leader he promised Dwayne Jarrett he would be, or does he become the locker room cancer with a new host? Is he even still good enough to make a difference? His recent numbers say yes, but in Carolina the defense was concerned with Steve Smith first and foremost, and defenses playing the Titans would be concerened with Keyshawn first and foremost. Is the risk worth the reward?

I hate, hate, hate having to make a decision like this based, for the most part, on the fact that the Titans have been inefficient this offseason, which is an incredibly kind way of putting it. Remember back in December, when everyone was gearing up for the Titans to be a relevant force in the football world again because of VY and the salary cap? Me too. Now, here we are, hoping against hope that LenDale White matures, Pacman gets out of jail free, or that, if they do roll the dice with Keyshawn, it becomes the best of times instead of the worst. For my money...I'd still stay away from him. And maybe Pacman Jones will help sway the decision.

It's easier for me to be hard on the Titans because I don't love them as much as the Vols, who I can't stay mad at. And I'll be solidly behind LenDale and/or Chris Henry come September, and I'll be behind Keyshawn if he's wearing Titan blue. But right now, even the most optimistic fan is more than frustrated. And when the best available answer to make it better comes in the form of Keyshawn Johnson, it ain't making things all better. We'll see.

Dear tiny infant Jesus...
...sitting in your crib...please, oh please, have mercy on the Boston Celtics tomorrow night. We don't need to win the Draft Lottery. We don't need anything special, really. We just need the odds to play out the way they're supposed to. Memphis has the most ping pong balls in that giant ping pong ball spinning contraption they use, and you know what, I'm feeling generous. They can have the number one pick. They can take their pick of Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Please, oh Lord...we have the second most ping pong balls, so all I ask is that you let us pick second. We'll take whichever one of those two guys Memphis doesn't want. We're sorry for sending ML Carr to the lottery all those years ago; we know this upset you and thus you denied us Tim Duncan. I mean look, he's about to win his fourth ring. We just want to be relevant again. And for that, we need Oden. Or Durant. Whichever one you want. If you don't, it's not that people will get angry...it's that they might just stop caring. And that's worse. Please. And when you say grace, you can say it to grown up Jesus, or teenage Jesus, or bearded Jesus, or whoever you want.

John Smoltz eats ex-Braves for dinner
In an interesting weekend, the Braves lost 13-3 in the day game on Saturday, then - behind Smoltz - won 14-0 in the nightcap at Fenway. So then, just when you're feeling good about your man Tim Hudson going against the Triple A pitcher of the week in Boston, Hudson gets shelled and the Red Sox win 6-3 to take the series.

So now, here come the Mets again. The Braves trail by 2.5 games, and by Thursday, they could be in the lead, or could be behind by as much as 5.5. So these count double. And after we warmup with Jorge Sosa and Kyle Davies tomorrow (over/under: 20 runs) and Chuck James against Oliver "I only pitch great against the Braves" Perez on Wednesday, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine will dance the dance once more on Thursday. Back in early April, I wrote about how special and significant it was for these two to be facing each other, seeing as how it had only happened once before. Since then, Smoltz has faced Glavine twice this season and Greg Maddux once, and the Braves are 3-0 in those contests with Smoltz grabbing two of the wins. But like I said, these this week count a little bit more. The Braves are 4-2 against the Mets so far this year...at the very least, playing at Turner, they need to win the series. A sweep would mean the division lead. And yes, I'm fully aware that it's May.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals Preview

...where once again, the execs at ABC and the NBA are banging their heads against a wall. Down to the final four, there's no Kobe, no Shaq, no D-Wade and the Heat going for two straight, no Mark Cuban and the best team in basketball, no Phoenix scoring 120 a night, and now, no cinderella story out in Oakland. While the basketball purists, including myself, might love another seven games of San Antonio and Detroit in the Finals, no one else is going to watch that. So the folks in the suits are hoping and praying that LeBron - who looked mighty mortal and needed big help from his teammates and big mistakes from the opposition in ousting New Jersey - puts the cape back on and leads the Cavs to a colossal upset of the Pistons to reach his first Finals. Meanwhile, out West, the pseudo-Finals between Phoenix and SanAntone was most famous for what it could've/should've been, instead of what actually happened. So now that the biggest stories of this playoff season revolve around who's already gone home...with a heavy heart, the conference finals are upon us:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Detroit vs. 2 Cleveland
Do not forget that last year, Detroit went up 2-0 on the Cavs in the conference semis, then lost three straight and went to the brink of elimination before rallying to win games six and seven and move on. So LeBron and friends have been to the edge of the promised land against these guys before. And as Wise says, "Michael had to go through Detroit. You've gotta go through Detroit." The Pistons have been as good as advertised when they're playing together in these playoffs, and have been alarmingly bad when they turn it off. Chicago ran roughshod over the Pistons in games four and five of the conference semis, and at parts of other games during the series, before Detroit seemingly flipped the switch.

And then there's Cleveland. This time, they won't have the luxury of Detroit looking past them. And LeBron, as stated, has looked quite mortal and needs to stop worrying about being the next Jordan, because right now, he'd struggle to be named as one of the five best players in the league. What he can do, if he's concerned with his legacy, is carry the fight to the Pistons. In a sense, this season is already a success for the Cavs, because they made it another step closer. Now, can they slay the dragon of a team that's making its fifth straight trip to the final four?

There's something about this one that makes me smell a rout. As much as I dislike the Pistons and as much as we'd all love to see some LeBron storylines in the finals, I think Detroit doesn't play around in this series, and they show exactly why they're the better team. Imagine, for a moment, just how good the Cavs would be if they'd kept Carlos Boozer around. While you're imagining that, in the real world, it's Pistons in five.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
3 San Antonio vs. 4 Utah
Does Utah have a chance here? Sure. But not a very good one. Aside from the fact that SA is simply better, and can do all the things that Utah does better than Utah does them, the Spurs are a dynasty - you just haven't realized it yet - and they're experienced and well-coached enough to not overlook a Utah team that is undefeated at home in the playoffs, won both games in Salt Lake against the Spurs in the regular season, and took down two very good teams in Houston and Golden State to get this far.

There will be drama here - a sweep would stun me much more in this series than it would in the East - especially if the Jazz can steal home court in these first two contests. But ultimately, I think San Antonio is the team to end that nice run they've had going in Salt Lake. Utah is a good story, even if they're not a sexy one like Golden State. But like all good fairy tales, when they run into the boundaries of reality, they end. And in reality, San Antonio is way too good. Spurs in six.

Friday, May 18, 2007

Big Baseball in May

If there's such a thing as a big series in April, then there's definitely some great importance on the next six days in May for the Atlanta Braves. After winning five straight to build a 1.5 game lead on the hated Mets, the Braves have lost four of five, including a disheartening three of four in Washington during the week. So as interleague play begins today, the Braves sit at 25-16 and 1.5 games behind New York in the NL East.

They're rained out tonight, but the Braves will play three this weekend at Fenway against the best team in baseball by far. Two tomorrow and one Sunday afternoon against the Red Sox, who are playing .700 ball and have a sick 9.5 game lead on the Yankees over in the AL East. The much anticipated weekend series, which has become an annual "rivalry" - the Red Sox will come to Turner Field in June for three - is hampered a bit by rain tonight, and a finger/blister injury to Josh Beckett that's landed him on the DL. This forced the Red Sox to shuffle their rotation, who will now send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the mound in the first game tomorrow to face Anthony Lerew, who was lights out in his first start and all over the place in his second, filling in the hole created by the Mike Hampton/Mark Redman injuries. Dice-K's early start prevents what would've been yet another dream matchup for John Smoltz, who will instead draw Devern Hansack on Saturday night. The Red Sox then elected to move Tim Wakefield back to face the Yankees in the sans-Roger Clemens series next week, so Tim Hudson - who, by the way, is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA - will face a Triple A player to be named later on Sunday.

While these two are dueling in Fenway, the Subway Series commences at Shea. And regardless of the outcome of these two highly anticipated interleague series, the real fun comes to Turner Field Tuesday-Thursday of next week, when the Mets come to town again. The Braves are 4-2 against New York this year and they've all been enjoyable, exciting ballgames. But with NYM already up 1.5 and the Braves in Fenway, New York could be looking at a chance to earn some real distance over Atlanta by the end of next week.

The reality of the situation is, with the next closest team (Phillies) currently 6.5 back, it continues to appear that the NL East is a two horse race. And from what I've seen in the first 40 games this year, it looks like both New York and Atlanta should make the playoffs this year. Milwaukee has cooled in the NL Central, but still has a 5.5 game lead in the NL Central, where the team in second (Houston) is .500. Out west, the Dodgers have the best talent and an early 3.0 game lead on the Padres in a crowded but ultimately sub-par division. So you should see, at least at this pace, both the Braves and Mets in October, and the beauty of the system means you can easily also see them in the NLCS.

But we're way ahead of ourselves. Despite Atlanta's early success over the Mets, neither team has been able to put more than 1.5 games between them. And while the Mets may have a chance to do that in the next six days, what's more likely is another jumbled fight atop the leaderboard.

New York has continued to show its talent - among the Top 25 hitters in the NL, the Mets have three (Jose Reyes .337, Shawn Green .327, Carlos Beltran .305), while Chipper Jones has been Atlanta's best bat thus far (.300, 11 homers), Edgar Renteria (.331) has also been sharp, and Andruw Jones and Jeff Francoeur both have 30 RBIs already. In terms of pitching, two guys who you might not've thought would be so hot - John Maine and Tim Hudson - are turning into Cy Young candidates. Hudson's numbers are impressive, but Maine - 5-1 and 2.15 - has also been great.

At the quarter pole, the Braves and Mets are still just as deadlocked as they were in the first week. And if it stays this way all year, you'll have exciting and important baseball deep into September. But the next six days are important for Atlanta, starting with two in Boston tomorrow. If the Braves want to prove that they're for real in 2007 and will be right back in the pennant conversation, they need to keep winning, and the ones over the next week will count just a little bit more.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

07 College Football - Biggest Games

While we're walking through the preseason Top 25 on this blog, here's a full look at all of the biggest games each week for the 2007 college football season:

September 1
Tennessee at California
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame
Wake Forest at Boston College
Kansas State at Auburn
Oklahoma State at Georgia
Florida State at Clemson (Monday)

September 8
Virginia Tech at LSU
Notre Dame at Penn State
Miami at Oklahoma
Oregon at Michigan
South Carolina at Georgia
Nebraska at Wake Forest

September 15
Tennessee at Florida
Notre Dame at Michigan
Southern Cal at Nebraska
Arkansas at Alabama
Boston College at Georgia Tech
Louisville at Kentucky

September 22
Texas A&M at Miami (Thursday)
Penn State at Michigan
Georgia at Alabama
South Carolina at LSU

September 29
Alabama vs. Florida State (at Jacksonville)
California at Oregon
Auburn at Florida

October 6
Texas vs. Oklahoma (at Dallas)
Florida at LSU
Georgia at Tennessee
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Notre Dame at UCLA

October 13
Wisconsin at Penn State
Boston College at Notre Dame
Auburn at Arkansas
Florida State at Wake Forest
Texas A&M at Texas Tech

October 20
Southern Cal at Notre Dame
Auburn at LSU
Tennessee at Alabama
Miami at Florida State
Texas A&M at Nebraska
California at UCLA

October 27
Boston College at Virginia Tech (Thursday)
Ohio State at Penn State
Nebraska at Texas
Florida vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville)
South Carolina at Tennessee
West Virginia at Rutgers
California at Arizona State

November 3
Wisconsin at Ohio State
Texas A&M at Oklahoma
Florida State at Boston College
LSU at Alabama
South Carolina at Arkansas

November 10
Louisville at West Virginia (Thursday)
Southern Cal at California
Michigan at Wisconsin
Florida State at Virginia Tech
Arkansas at Tennessee
Texas Tech at Texas
Arizona State at UCLA

November 17
Ohio State at Michigan
Miami at Virginia Tech
Boston College at Clemson
Oklahoma at Texas Tech

November 24
Southern Cal at Arizona State (Thursday)
Arkansas at LSU (Friday)
Alabama at Auburn
Florida State at Florida
Clemson at South Carolina
Virginia Tech at Virginia
Texas at Texas A&M

December 1
ACC Championship Game
Big 12 Championship Game
SEC Championship Game
UCLA at Southern Cal
Rutgers at Louisville

Friday, May 11, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 23. Arkansas

23. Arkansas
Well, you can say this for these guys - no one has had a more adventurous 365 days than Pig, Sooie, Razorbacks. From the entrance of Guz Malzahn and the subsequent score of four highly touted high school seniors from his program, to getting blasted (again) by Southern Cal in the opener, to winning two nail-biters because Vanderbilt and Alabama didn't have adequate kickers, to showing their true colors with authority in a 27-10 beatdown of Auburn on The Plains where Darren McFadden and Felix Jones ran for a combined 249 yards, to a string of wins behind the young Mitch Mustain capped off by a close win over South Carolina, to Mustain being yanked for Casey Dick and a subsequent 31-14 dominanting performance over Tennessee to put Arkansas in the national championship conversation, to heartbreaking losses to LSU, Florida, and Wisconsin to close out the season. Then it really got interesting, when Malzahn made a sub-lateral move to become the offensive coordinator at Tulsa and all those talented freshman started looking elsewhere (note: Mitch Mustain wants to play at Southern Cal? The kid is good, but he's not that good.) Houston Nutt put his foot down and continued to show a commitment to the hardcore running game - and he's got the horses to do it - which means that Casey Dick can, in fact, be the man in this offense. But then Nutt had to deal with his own personal questions and issues, all while legendary athletic director Frank Broyles prepares to step down...

When you have so many landmines and issues, and when ESPN and everyone else is going to talk about this all year, it does two things to a football team - it brings them closer together, or it tears them apart. So which will it be for the Razorbacks, and what will they do for an encore?

We start with Casey Dick, who will arguably be the least talented of the 12 SEC quarterbacks who will take the first snap on opening weekend, but once again, playing QB in this system isn't about abundance of talent or 6'5" laser rocket arms, it's about making smart decisions and taking advantage of the opportunities the dominant running game will give you. And luckily for Dick and Arkansas, the Hogs have the weapons at the skill sets to make everyone pay.

Is Darren McFadden the best college football player in America? In a time where everyone seems to be looking for the next Reggie Bush, and you find that comparison being made in both the Heisman circles (Steve Slaton) and the local circles (LaMarcus Coker), McFadden might be the best imitation. If you watched him at all last year, he made a believer out of you - he doesn't need much of any room to exploit a hole and a defense, he's all of the above in the quick, fast, elusive department (and yes, those are all different things because EA Sports says they are, where I've read that McFadden will be the only 99 overall player in NCAA08, in stores July 17...). He also has Felix Jones to take the pressure away, and a creative system that employs him in Wildcat and other interesting formations - though since defensive coordinators have had a year to figure that out, it may not be so charming in 2007. But simply put, McFadden is special - last year, he went for 145 on Auburn, 219 on South Carolina, 181 on the Vols, and 182 on LSU. The only defense that truly shut down the entire Arkansas running game belonged to the National Champions. And don't forget about three year starter Peyton Hillis at FB, who helps move bodies out of the way.

When the Piggies aren't stuffing it down your throat and Casey Dick does actually have to pass, he'll once again be throwing to Marcus Monk, among other returning receivers (including Robert "I used to play quarterback and be part of a funny joke" Johnson). Monk did a great job last year of being that #1 receiver and taking advantage of a defense looking to jam the line and stuff the run, often drawing single coverage on an undersized defensive back. He's got good hands and good physicality (I'm making up attributes now, Mel Kiper style), and will again have a chance to shine if the Arkansas offense goes...

...which brings us to the potential downfall. No matter how amateur Casey Dick may seem at quarterback, he's not the biggest problem. Part of the reason the Hogs ran so well last year was a mammoth, senior-laden offensive line. Now three of those guys are gone and will be playing on Sundays, and the Hogs must reload and not rebuild. So we'll find out exactly how much of 2006's great rushing attack was McFadden and Jones, and how much of it was the o-line. The two backs are still going to be talented and dangerous, but ain't nobody bad in the SEC when the opposition can stop you without having to put 8 or 9 in the box - if the offensive line gets dominated by the opposition's front seven, it's going to be a very frustrating year all around for Arkansas.
Arkansas does, of course, also play defense, which they played very well and were overshadowed by the Wildcat and the running game last year. Seven starters return, but big names do not - most notably, Jamaal Anderson and Keith Jackson on the defensive line, LB Sam Olajubutu (who, I swear, was in Fayetteville for about eight years), and shutdown corner Chris Houston. So the defense may still be good, but you may not be throwing that "dominant" word around.
The schedule makers were kind, in part, to Arkansas. The Pigs' annual opponent from the Eastern Division is South Carolina, which may be tougher this year than in years past. And the Hogs do have to go to Knoxville. But they dodge both Florida and Georgia - none of the legitimate title contenders in the SEC get such a break when it comes to who they're playing from the other division this year. Plus, they won't get a chance to give up 50 points to Southern Cal again this year.
The bad news is that almost all of their big games are on the road. The September 15 game at Alabama could end up being a season-definer for both teams. The Hogs do get Auburn and South Carolina in Fayetteville, but most go to Knoxville and Baton Rouge in a span of 13 days in November. For a team that "folded" down the stretch last year, with the open date falling in week two, which means 11 straight games after that, it ain't getting any easier.
2007 Arkansas Schdeule
09/01 - vs Troy
09/08 - off week
09/15 - at Alabama
09/22 - vs Kentucky
09/29 - vs North Texas
10/06 - vs UT-Chattanooga
10/13 - vs Auburn
10/20 - at Ole Miss
10/27 - vs Florida International
11/03 - vs South Carolina
11/10 - at Tennessee
11/17 - vs Mississippi State
11/23 - at LSU (Fri)
Final Analysis - Once again, like we talked about with Auburn, there are simply too many teams with high expectations in the SEC, and reality is going to deal disappointment to more than one of them. I really think Arkansas is walking into a trap in Tuscaloosa, having played only one game - against Troy - while Alabama will have two under their belt, including a road date with Vanderbilt that's more dangerous than it looks. In Nick Saban's first big home game, I wouldn't want to be Arkansas and I wouldn't want to be Casey Dick. The Alabama-Arkansas contests are annually among the closest played in the SEC, and it's been that way for 15 years. I don't think Arkansas walks into that hornet's nest and wins.
The flip side of that coin, however, is that even if they lose, all they really have to do is beat Auburn at home in mid-October, and they should still be in control of their own SEC West destiny come November. But again, I think the November stretch - for a team that ended on a three game losing streak last year - will prove to be too difficult. I don't think Arkansas is going to lose five or six games, but I don't think they're going 11-1 either. The trips to Knoxville and Baton Rouge may help this team continue to come unglued - remember, all the outside issues which will feel much heavier if they lose to Alabama in their second game - and I just think Arkansas, as great as they can be on offense, and even if McFadden becomes a Heisman candidate, is going to end up on the outside of the SEC title conversation. In a year where both the East and West should be very competitive and good teams abound in both divisions, I don't think this team will start or finish strong enough to get to Atlanta. They've certainly proved me wrong before, and I'll be glad to see them come off the Vols' schedule for awhile after this season, because they also always play us close, win or lose. But again...too many uncertainties on defense and too many outside x-factors to put them in the title conversation for me. Still, if they played more than half of the teams I'll rank in front of them, they'd probably win.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 24. Boston College

24. Boston College
It's a new era for the Eagles, though it comes around in a questionable way. Tom O'Brien, who spent a decade at Chesnut Hill and kept the Eagles as a consistent threat in both the Big East and now in the ACC, made what some (including me) consider to be a lateral move to become the new head coach at NC State in 2007. O'Brien is replaced with Jeff Jagodzinski, last seen as the Green Bay offensive coordinator, who spent two years (97/98) as BC's offensive coordinator under O'Brien in the past. Perhaps an equally important addition to the staff is Steve Logan as offensive coordinator - Logan is the old East Carolina coach from the 90s who led the Pirates to the brink of national prominance and coached both Jeff Blake and David Garrard. And BC has the playmakers on offense to really take advantage.

The Eagles are coming off back to back three loss seasons in the first two years in the ACC, and have been pleasantly surprsing. But in both seasons, the Eagles have one loss that never should've been (16-14 at UNC in 05, 17-14 at a dead Miami team in 06), as well as some tough games that really got away from them (the 17-15 loss to NC State last year stands out). As a result, the Eagles have been on the outside looking in for the ACC title race. The Atlantic Division is again wide open in 2007 - Wake Forest was the upstart winner last year, and in a division with a still questionable Wake, a very human Florida State, a Clemson team that never comes through in the clutch, and probable also-rans Maryland and NC State, everyone in Boston has to be thinking about Jacksonville in 2007. One could be so bold as to say that anything less will be a disappointment.

The Eagles will once again bring the pain on offense, with a returning cast of players who have already been good. If they can become great as a collective unit in 2007, look out. It starts with QB Matt Ryan, All-ACC selection from 2006. This is the type of quarterback you want on a team with championship potential. BC lost only one primary receiving threat from 2006 (Tony Gonzalez) and will need to fill some holes on the offensive line, but Matt Ryan is the type of player who can carry a team. And it helps getting both LV Whitworth and Andre Callender back to carry the rock in the backfield. This will again give the Eagles incredible balance on the offensive side of the ball.
What makes you think even more about at least a division title for Boston College this year is that the entire starting front seven returns on defense. This is a defense that played good enough for the Eagles to win every game they played in 2006 - BC's three losses were 17-15 to NC State, 21-14 to Wake Forest, and 17-14 to Miami. The most points the defense allowed in regulation last year: 24. The secondary has holes to fill, but none of the ACC opposition will be firing the ball all over the place, so the Eagles may be okay.
The schedule brings drama early and late for Boston College. If the most important opening weekend game is Tennessee at California, and the biggest opening weekend game is Florida State at Clemson in the Bowden Bowl, the second biggest and most important game of opening weekend is Wake Forest at Boston College, believe it or not. It decided the Atlantic Division title last year, and could very well do so again in 2007. The very next week, BC fans won't have to wait long to see their old pal Tom O'Brien, as NC State comes to town, followed by a trip to Georgia Tech. Then the Eagles get to breathe for three weeks, but if they can make it to October 13 at 6-0, then they'll be dead center in the ACC title race with their destiny in their own hands down the stretch.
2007 Boston College Schedule
09/01 - vs Wake Forest
09/08 - vs NC State
09/15 - at Georgia Tech
09/22 - vs Army
09/29 - vs UMASS
10/06 - vs Bowling Green
10/13 - at Notre Dame
10/20 - off week
10/25 - at Virginia Tech (Thurs.)
11/03 - vs Florida State
11/10 - at Maryland
11/17 - at Clemson
11/24 - vs Miami
Final Analysis: While I do think that Boston College will get to October 13 at 6-0, and that they'll beat Notre Dame to get to 7-0. But the annual showdown Thursday Night game at Virginia Tech - which could be an ACC Championship preview - will define their season. In their last trip to Blacksburg in 2005, the Eagles walked in 6-1 and in the Top 15 and got beat down 30-10. Last year at Chesnut Hill, the Hokies walked in 4-1 got totally shut down by BC's defense and Kirk Herbstreit in a 22-3 loss that really turned their season around. So for both teams, you can circle this one - I'm looking forward to the chance to be there in person.
From there, things just get too tough all at once for Boston College. These last six games spell trouble for a team with a first year head coach. In a year where it appears unlikely at first glance that the ACC will get two teams in the BCS, Boston College again finds themselves in a tough spot. It usually works that the loser of the title game goes to the Gator Bowl on January 1, which is nice. The Chick-fil-A Bowl is also a great spot for an ACC team to land in, but being that Boston is about three times farther away from Atlanta than all the other ACC schools, the odds of the Eagles winding up there are slim and none. So once again, Boston College can have a good/great 9-3/10-2 year, and still end up in some third-tier bowl. And that's what I think will happen - as good as Boston College will be, I just don't see them finishing strong with that stretch run, and it's no guarantee that they'll make it to October unscathed. The ACC, on the other side of Florida State's dominance, has a better habit of beating up on each other and creating a league full of above average teams with no great ones than any other conference, and that may very well happen again this year. So the Eagles will be good, and could be great, but I think they'll once again come up just...that...short.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Smoltz vs. Maddux

Though you'll need Fox Sports South or the MLB Extra Innings package on DirecTV to see it, the dream matchups continue this season for John Smoltz in Atlanta's rotation. After twice getting the best of Tom Glavine in two matchups with the Mets earlier this season, tonight in the third game of a four game midweek series with San Diego in Atlanta, Smoltz will take the mound against the true ace of Atlanta's monstrous 90s staff - Greg Maddux.

Smoltz and Maddux have faced each other before, when they were both younger than I am now and Maddux was the young ace for the Cubbies. But they haven't faced each other since Maddux left Atlanta to return to Chicago, and Smoltz returned from the bullpen to the starting rotation.

Both are still quite good, though Maddux hasn't been asked to be the staff ace since around 2001, instead becoming that solid third-fourth option and the backbone of pitching staffs in Atlanta, Chicago, LA and now San Diego, while showing the young folks how it's done. Maddux, who was a ridiculous 194-88 with a 2.63 ERA in 11 seasons with the Braves, is still good for 12-15 wins every season.

Maddux comes into tonight's contest at 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA. Smoltz is 4-1 and at 3.35. Both teams are good and should be in their division races all year; the Braves are 20-12 and tied atop the NL East with those pesky Mets, while the Padres are 18-15 and chasing the Dodgers. For the third time this year, this is just one of those matchups where you look at it and realize that you really haven't seen this before, and you may never see it again. Here's hoping Smoltz can continue his winning ways over ex-Braves.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

SESB Preseason Top 25 - 25. Auburn

I can't take it anymore. With the preseason magazines releasing their Top 25s over the course of May and college football talk heating up as spring practice closes and recruits prepare to make their way to campus, it's time to dig in and take our best shot.

Announcing the 2007 SouthEasternSportsBlog College Football Top 25. Why now, you say? One, because I'd rather challenge myself and do it this way, with my own opinions and ideas of how things will shake out, than to sit here in a month or two with four or five magazines spread out and try and make them all agree with each other and me. Two, because if I start on May 8, there's a good chance I might actually finish by September 1.

Now, let me say right away that these teams are ranked based on how I think the season will unfold. This is NOT a ranking of talent - if you're looking for something like that on this blog, check out the post-draft deadline 2007 Top 25 I did back in January. So since this is how I think things will shake out come January, and since I'm a notorious orange kool-aid drinker, and since this takes some work to do and I like to feel rewarded for it...you might see a certain team in orange end up at #1 on this thing. Because I still believe that Tennessee can realistically win every single game they play, and if they do that...so you get the idea. Yes, I'm biased. But it's also not like I'm putting Vanderbilt up there. The entire ranking is based on what I think will happen, and I think Tennessee will win every week. But I've also looked at everyone else and picked what I think will happen with them. So I promise, it's legit. Sort of.

Anyway, it's my list, so here we go...

25. Auburn
The Tigers, much like the Vols, are still talented and capable enough to realistically have thoughts of the National Championship in August. The blessing and the curse of the SEC is that 2/3 of the league is doing the same thing.
It's been an interesting journey for Auburn under Tommy Tuberville. After replacing Terry Bowden in 1999, Tuberville was average for four seasons, and Auburn only made it to Atlanta once, in 2000. Then, with some picking them as their preseason #1 in 2003, the Tigers lost their first two games and finished with five L's on the year, and Tommy was on the hot seat.

Since then, Auburn went an unrewarded 13-0 in 2004, then were an overtime away from winning the SEC West in 2005. Last year, Auburn was once again a preseason top ten and picked to be neck and neck with LSU in the SEC West. But even though they shut down LSU on the Plains - and even though they were the only team to beat Florida last year - the Tigers went asleep at the wheel in front of the home crowd in inexplicable fashion. Twice. The 27-10 "we can't stop the run!" loss to Arkansas might be forgiveable, sandwiched between a tough road win at South Carolina and a looming date with Florida. The 37-15 beating they took from a Georgia team that was in a complete tailspin, with Auburn still in the national championship race, I still can't get over. So you can bet that the Auburn faithful have an even longer memory. The reality is, the Tigers have been very good for three seasons in a row, but it feels like they have nothing to show for it - despite the SEC title in 2004, getting left out of the title game taints it. Despite winning bowl games in 05 and 06, missing out on Atlanta taints it. Beating Alabama repeatedly makes it all better, but Tuberville raised the stakes significantly on The Plains - and now, in 2007, Auburn will field their least talented team since 2002, with expectations still aimed squarely at the BCS. Could be trouble.

It starts, as it tends to do, at the quarterback position. Brandon Cox is a name, but in the year of the quarterback in the SEC, Cox is looking at even odds of being forgetable or being good. Auburn needs Cox to be good - he doesn't have to be All-SEC, he just needs to help the ballclub. Handing it to Brad Lester will help, but Lester will have to prove that he can be the back on an Auburn squad that's accustomed to sharing the load, and Kenny Irons is gone. However, knowing Tuberville, it's possible that Auburn will still share the load, they'll just pass it along to someone younger (watch out for 5'11", 215 sophomore Ben Tate).

The wide receivers have a similar issue - good and have potential, but no one is calling you great. Courtney Taylor is gone, so the first option will be Rod Smith, who is really the only proven returning WR. Here again, there are names that no one knows now that Auburn will need to be of the household variety come November if the Tigers are to think championship. At all the skill positions, while no one is going to use the word "domination" to describe this offense, the pieces are there for Auburn to answer all the questions...
...except, perhaps, on the offensive line. 6'9" King Dunlap returns, but it's holes and question marks after that. So the entire offense has the potential to be very successful, but also has the potential to implode if Cox falters, the receivers don't materialize, and the line can't open up holes for Lester or whoever gets the handle.

On defense, you can once again expect Auburn to be among the best in the SEC. End Quentin Groves (to the right) returns for his senior season and may very well be the best defensive end in the conference. Antonio Coleman on the other end, as well as Josh Thompson and freshman all-SEC Sen'Derrick Marks at tackle, are players as well, that should be huge as the first line of defense for the Tigers.
At linebacker, you start with talent and questions when it comes to Tray Blackmon, who was suspended twice last season and could still have some lingering effects in 2007. The other linebackers have big shoes to fill, and if Blackmon continues to struggle with his personal issues and winds up spending more time off the field than on it, what's been a staple of Auburn's defense under Tuberville will really struggle.
And you've got more questions in the secondary - again, names like David Irons and Will Herring have moved on. The entire Auburn defense will rely heavily on the front four and the hopeful emergence of the LB corps, and the secondary may be better than advertised simply because they're not the old guys and don't carry such hype...but this still looks like Auburn's most vulnerable defense in several years, even if they're still among the SEC's best. Once again, you can see how the pieces are in place, but it may not live up to what Auburn is expecting.
The schedule means it's a bad year to be an Auburn season ticket holder. The Iron Bowl comes to The Plains this year where the Tigers will be looking for six in a row, but other than that, all the big and important games are road dates. The Tigers open with four straight home games - Kansas State, South Florida (danger!), Mississippi State, New Mexico State - before going to The Swamp on September 29. The date is vulnerable for Florida, and if Auburn can steal a win there, then the Tigers will have real momentum building to October...and they'll need it, with consecutive road trips to Fayetteville and Baton Rouge. And the Tigers will have to go to Georgia on November 10. Yikes.
2007 Auburn Schedule
09/01 - vs Kansas State
09/08 - vs South Florida
09/15 - vs Mississippi State
09/22 - vs New Mexico State
09/29 - at Florida
10/06 - vs Vanderbilt
10/13 - at Arkansas
10/20 - at LSU
10/27 - vs Ole Miss
11/03 - vs Tennessee Tech
11/10 - at Georgia
11/17 - off week
11/24 - vs Alabama
Final Analysis: as stated, there are eight teams in the SEC - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, and Tennessee - who are thinking about championships right now. That's not even to include the upstart Kentucky or Vanderbilt teams, or the state of Mississippi who proved last year that even they must be accounted for. But with eight teams carrying such high expectations, that means that at least two of those teams are probably going to end up with four or five loss seasons and great disappointment. Even if/when the SEC gets two teams in the BCS, three on January 1 and somebody in the still-respectable Chick-fil-A Bowl, that still means that somebody's going to play in the Independence Bowl, and somebody's going to play in the Music City Bowl, and neither will probably be happy about that. But such is life.
I think because of the tough road schedule and the lack of anything that seems truly special outside of Quentin Groves, that Auburn will be one of those teams that comes face to face with disappointment in 2007. There's nothing about Brandon Cox that makes you believe he can help get this team the big victory, and after three incredibly good seasons, the SEC karma is due to come back around on Auburn and hand them a four or five loss season. The other side of this coin is that the lack of hype and star power could carry the Tigers to Atlanta (98 Tennessee), and if that happened it wouldn't be a total shock. But not everyone can win every week, even in the SEC, and I think 2007 is the year Auburn takes one step back.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

NBA Playoffs - Conference Semifinals Predictions

As the Rockets and Jazz play the lone Game 7 from the opening round tonight, the conference semfinals also get underway in Detroit. The basketball story from the first round - Golden State's dominance over the "best team in basketball" and Dallas subsequently going home - should give way to an even more exciting second round.

ESPN The Magazine ran a great article in their last issue, about how all of the major players in the playoff picture, with the exception of Tim Duncan, have something to prove. So those are some of the questions we'll be looking at as we preview the second round.

Predicting the first round:
- I nailed the Pistons in 4 and the Suns in 5, and will have a chance to be right on Jazz in 7 tonight. (UPDATED - yep, I was right)
- Got the team right, but the number of games wrong, with Cleveland and San Antonio.
- Like everybody else, I had the Mavericks...I was also let down by the Raptors, and am clearly an idiot for picking the Heat over the Bulls.

Onward!

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1 Detroit vs. 5 Chicago
Ah...smells like the late 80s/early 90s. If you're too young or too forgetful...before Michael Jordan was Michael Jordan, he had a nemesis: the Bad Boys. While Jordan's only true individual rival was Dominique Wilkins in the dunk contest, make no mistake that the Detroit Pistons of Isaiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, Dennis Rodman, Bill Laimbeer, and Rick Mahorn (among others) were the greatest thorn in Jordan's side throughout his entire career. One year after "And now there's a steal by Bird!" to help eliminate the Pistons in the 1987 Eastern Conference Finals, Detroit assumed Boston's mantle as the best team in the East and served as the bridge between Bird and Jordan. In 1988, before beating the Celtics, the Pistons eliminated Jordan's Bulls 4-1 in the conference semifinals. The next year, after the Jordan-on-Ehlo shot in the first round and an upset of the Knicks in the semifinals, the Pistons again whipped the Bulls, this time in the Eastern Conference Finals, 4-2. Detroit went on to win the NBA Championship.

In 1990, the Bulls made it to seven games, but again fell to Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals, as Detroit then beat Portland to win back-to-back titles. The thought was that Jordan and company were too soft and incapable of beating Detroit. But in 91, the Bulls finally captured home court advantage, and then brutally swept the Bad Boys out of the Eastern Conference Finals. In Game 4, the Pistons famously walked off the court before the game was fully over, refusing to shake hands with the champion Bulls.

From there, the rivalry was dead. But with the move of Ben Wallace from Detroit to Chicago, things got interesting again. The Bulls won the regular season series 3-1, but the Pistons won the Central Division and have home court advantage. Both teams looked incredibly dominant in the first round, though the Bulls did so against the defending champs. Watching the first round, I realized the Bulls are easy to underestimate - you don't appreciate how good guys like Luol Deng and Ben Gordon are until you see them in action. The Pistons, as stated, have been the best playoff team in the NBA in the last four years. They won it all in 2004, lost in seven games in the NBA Finals in 2005, lost in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2006. They know how to win. Chicago doesn't - but that doesn't mean they can't pull this one out. They'll be younger, faster, and arguably hungrier.

The key matchup here will be Ben Wallace and Chris Webber. Wallace isn't going to score 20 a game in this thing, but he can change the outcome. Webber, meanwhile, would love an opportunity to go down in history for something other than a timeout that he didn't have. So can Webber help rewrite his legacy? Can the Pistons win without Ben Wallace? And are these Bulls ready to grow and take the next step by eliminating the greatest threat in the Eastern Conference?

In the NBA Playoffs, I have a hard time picking something until I see it happen. So I'm going with the Pistons - the Bulls made a believer out of me in the first round, but not enough of a believer to pick them in this series. But I think this will be highly enjoyable basketball, and I think we're going seven.
Will's Pick: Pistons in 7

2 Cleveland vs. 6 New Jersey
Those veteran Nets got it done in a tough first round series against Toronto, but will need more consistency to take out LeBron and the Cavs. However, all the pressure in this series will be resting squarely on 23's shoulders. For the first time in his young career, LeBron will be expected by everyone watching to carry his troops to the Eastern Conference Finals.

New Jersey's trio of Kidd, Carter and Jefferson have been there and done that. Jason Kidd is still very much at the top of his game, and Carter and Jefferson are better players than anyone on the Cavs' roster besides LBJ. If New Jersey plays with more consistency, and especially if they're able to get Game 1 or 2 in Cleveland, I think this is real trouble for the Cavs. In the "prove it" category, if LeBron wants to be remembered as one of the all time greats, he's gotta keep advancing. He doesn't have to win it all this year by any means, but it's important for him and for Cleveland that they take advantage of opportunities, and this is one of them. Cleveland should win this series. But New Jersey has what it takes to capitalize if the Cavs falter. All of NJ's players are still answering questions of their own, with two trips to the Finals and no rings to show for it. But one thing at a time. I'm going with Cleveland simply because they're the better team...and LeBron hasn't given me a reason to go against him in playoff time yet, so despite all the red flags in this series, the Cavs are the pick. And yep, seven again.
Will's Pick: Cavs in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
4 Utah vs. 8 Golden State
Either way here, you'll be happy to see one of these teams make it to the conference finals. Utah, and more specifically Jerry Sloan, are due some success, and Sloan proved he still knows what he's doing as Houston fell under the game seven pressure, and the Jazz (love those road baby blues) advanced 103-99. Carlos Boozer will now have a chance to make himself a household name, and no matter how big of an underdog Utah would be against Phoenix/San Antonio, making it that far would be a great success.

And then there's Golden State. While no one seems to think that Utah has the talent to get to the Finals, you'll believe anything about the Warriors right now. So what will they do for an encore?

One thing's for sure - you can't use the phrase "Yeah, but they aren't good enough to beat..." They took care of the best team in the NBA in what should've been five games. If they can do that to Dallas, they can beat anybody. Don't give me matchups or chokes or whatever - Golden State is real. Since March 29, this team is 13-3 - they went 9-1 down the stretch in the regular season just to make the playoffs, and simply owned the Mavericks.

You'll get two of the best home court advantages in the NBA here, two cities with smart fans who are due some winning. But here, I'm not even sure you can use the phrase "has the magic run out?", because even if GS doesn't play as well as they did against Dallas, they'll still have a shot to beat Utah.

The Baron Davis/Deron Williams matchup is very interesting - Davis is shooting way above his normal percentages and still has the sore hammy, so we'll see. But much like Boozer, this is a chance for Baron Davis to court immortality in Oakland. Both teams rely on the full cast, and will need to do so to advance.

Everyone is getting on the bandwagon and picking Oakland - and I agree, they look very tough to beat at home. But Utah is also undefeated at home in these playoffs. However, I simply like Golden State in this one straight up - all magic aside, I just think they're the better team right now. It'll take magic for the Warriors to reach the NBA Finals (though that's not out of the question). It'll take just plain old solid basketball for them to get past Utah, and I think that's what you'll see.
Will's Pick: Warriors in 6

2 Phoenix vs. 3 San Antonio
Much like last season, the best matchup of the entire playoffs will be found in the conference semifinals. The NBA changed the seeding rules to try and prevent something like this, when Dallas and San Antonio had to face each other in the second round. But now that Dallas is out, the two best teams left standing will square off here, while Golden State/Utah/Houston will get a free pass to the conference finals.

There's something for everyone here - the supremely enjoyable Phoenix offense, or the fundamental and intelligent overall style of San Antonio. The Spurs won the season series 2-1, and proved they can run with Phoenix in a 111-106 win in November. With Dallas' regular season run to 67 wins, everyone put these two teams on the backburner. But they're right there - Phoenix won 61, San Antonio won 58, and both will be wild favorites in both the Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals.

These San Antonio players have been there - Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginoboli, etc. - they know how to win. Phoenix, despite all the hype and flash of the last few seasons, have never made it to the NBA Finals (not since 1993 anyway) and, no matter how many MVPs he has, Steve Nash still must prove he can carry this team to the next level.

Phoenix has the talent to win this series, no question - Nash, Stoudamire, Marion and company can beat anybody. And they've got home court advantage. San Antonio, in the Tim Duncan era, won the title in 1999, survived the wrath of the Lakers after three years to win it again in 2003, then won it again in 2005 after the Lakers disbanded. Last year, they were an overtime away from eliminating Dallas to advance back to the conference finals. So even if they're not sexy or talked about, the Spurs know what they're doing. You can't use any of those credentials with Phoenix. So, as stated with Bulls-Pistons, I'll believe it when I see it.
Will's Pick: Spurs in 6

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Random Thoughts - Tuesday May 1

2007 College Football - The Beginning of the Beginning
Get your fingers ready to put some creases in your shiny new copy of Athlon's college football preview. The span of weeks where Athlon, Lindy's, and The Sporting News release their annual college football previews always serves as the bridge between spring football and legimitate thoughts, predictions, and analysis of the upcoming season. And so the first glimpse of college football hope has arrived on the horizon - this week, Athlon has started revealing their 2007 Top 25. They'll go one a day, Monday-Friday, between now and June 1 in counting down their picks for the nation's best. That means you can expect to get your hands on the actual magazine in the first week of June, and then that will have to hold you over for six weeks until EA Sports' NCAA Football 08 is released in mid-July. You can follow the countdown at Athlon's website. 122 days...

NFL Draft - Insert your Titans question/insult of choice
I spent Saturday on the golf course while in Knoxville for the weekend - where I discovered that is has, in fact, been six years since I shot in the low 80s and now it's like I've never played before in my life, which is highly discourgaing and will send me to the driving range with a fury - following the action on my cell phone's draft tracker. And so when the Titans' pick came around, I was smiling for the first time all day. And then they turned in the card.

I could try and say something intelligent or biting about this, but Jeff Wright summed it up pretty well. Let's just say that if Chris Henry was "inconsistent" - a generous term - against Pac-10 defenses, I can't wait to see how consistent he'll be on Sundays. (Obvious joke: "Oh, he'll be consistent...consistently awful! Zing!")

For the record, this blog correctly predicted 5 of 32 picks in the first round. Mel Kiper got 8. Sue me.

NBA Playoffs - All aboard the Golden State express
Proving that you should keep reading this blog simply for the wild variance in my predictions - I nailed the Pistons in a first round sweep, and am still feeling like quite the idiot for picking Miami to beat Chicago. The series that was supposed to be one of the most boring - Houston and Utah - has turned into some of the most competitive basketball in the whole field.

But the hearts and minds of the nation are in Dallas tonight, where the 67-15 Mavericks are one night away from elimination at the hands of Golden State. Now, I have no problems with Dallas, I respect the range of opinions about Mark Cuban but I find him to be entertaining, interesting, and overall good for the game, and I don't wish anything bad on them. But everybody loves an upset, and this Golden State team is fun to watch. Whether it's their "Did he just throw back some scotch?" coach Don Nelson and all of his personal storylines with Dallas, the "emergence" of Baron Davis (33 points in 44 minutes in an instant classic Game 4), finally getting his due, or the way Stephen Jackson has stepped it up...you want to like Golden State. A team with Davis, Jason Richarson, and a cast of guys you may've never heard of has that ecclectic vibe that I like come playoff time. And no, you don't want to see them win tonight. You want some drama - you want this thing to go back to Oaktown for Game Six. I said earlier that this year's playoffs would be very hard pressed to match the greatness of 2006. But the upcoming Pistons-Bulls matchup will be pleasing to the old school eye, LeBron looks like a lock for the conference finals, and the Lakers will be going home soon. Joy.

The Braves are still really good...
...even when their closer blows two saves because he's stubborn. Bob Wickman has had back problems recently, and after converting his first six save attempts, he helped blow Tim Hudson's 8 inning, 12 K gem after Bobby Cox left Hudson in one batter too long against the Marlins, then helped send a game at Colorado to extra innings, where the Rockies would eventually win. So Wickman goes to the DL...but the Braves didn't have to worry about closing one out last night, when Andruw Jones absolutely launched a pitch from Mr. Alfonseca to give the Braves a walk-off 5-2 win, improve their record to 4-0 against the Fightin' Phillies this year, and keep them atop the NL East at 16-9, which is the second best record in baseball. And hey, not everybody can play the Yankees six times in 24 games like those lucky Red Sox.

If you need me, I'll be at the driving range, saying bad words.

UPDATE - ...and, uh, by driving range, I meant mowing my lawn...

The Carolina Panthers have cut Keyshawn Johnson. Super Awkward.
Like I said, I was on the golf course on draft day, so I didn't get to hear Keyshawn's "ranting and raving" according to my father. But I was in front of the television in the second round when the Panthers drafted Dwayne Jarrett, and Keyshawn was being the good older brother figure - after saying that Jarrett reminded Keyshawn of...Keyshawn, he told him not to worry about dropping into the second round, and that he was going to take care of him. Keyshawn expressed genuine pleasure and excitement about having Jarrett as a teammate.

And now, the guillotine has fallen. The younger 6'4" model will be on the field alongside Steve Smith next year, while Keyshawn will be looking for a new job. If you saw Johnson's reaction to and conversation with Jarrett on draft day, you know how incredibly awkward this situation now seems. If you didn't see it, there's no way to eloquently capture it in words...and so far, no one on YouTube has been kind enough to post it. But I'm betting that will change...

In the meantime, maybe Keyshawn will continue to pursue a television role. But those Tennessee Titans still need a wide receiver or two...

Is this a good thought or a bad thought? I'll let you decide...

UPDATE TWO -

The Vols and Cal will open the season on national television in primetime.
ABC announced that its nationally televised Saturday Night Football season opener will be the Vols and Golden Bears at 8:00 PM EST on September 1 (available in HD, you lucky, lucky men and women). This is the Brent Musberger/Bob Davie/Kirk Herbstreit team, so that means you should see the GameDay crew in Berkeley...but ESPN avoids the West Coast like the plague, since GameDay starts live at 7:00 AM out there. So you never know. Either way, this game was really the only choice - the next best game on opening weekend is the Bowden Bowl, which is played on Labor Day, and the only game on September 1 that should include two Top 25 teams is Wake Forest at Boston College. Just admit it - the Vols are much sexier.

Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan are playing golf together.
At the Wachovia pro-am this week...they'll be joined by a corporate CEO to complete the threesome. This is the best argument I've seen yet to pursue a business degree.