It's been five years since I got a chance to see WrestleMania, but this Sunday night I'm throwing down the cash ($49.95?! When did that happen?! Probably sometime in the last five years, eh?) to watch the greatest moment in wrestling each year. Even with ratings down and a hole in the talent roster due to TNA defections (most notably Kurt Angle), stubborn legends who won't take a pay cut (most notably Hulk Hogan), injuries (most notably Triple H), and retirements (most notably The Rock) - hey, it's WrestleMania. And while true wrestling fans aren't going crazy over the over-publicized Vince McMahon-Donald Trump feud, there's still some things to look forward to. The double main events may not be instant classics, but both are old school vs. new school showdowns, with the old school drawing the majority of the fan support in both cases. And the eight man Money in the Bank ladder match is what I'm looking forward to the most. And there are still gripes - aside from the missing talent, the Intercontinental Title will not be defended (that's Umaga), the ECW title will not be defended (that's Lashley), and the tag team titles will not be defeneded (John Cena & Shawn Michaels, who're facing each other, but at least that'll still be interesting on Monday). Anyway, here are the ramblings of a now-casual wrestling fan, on the eve of WrestleMania...
(These are the announced matches, but there are so many "superstars" left off the card as it stands, there's gotta be some sort of tag team gauntlet or battle royal or something that they're not talking about, or maybe will be a dark match...)
Kane vs. The Great Khali
Here's your typical "we need an angle - let's put two giants against each other!" match, short on storyline and big on physical violence. The Kane character is now a ten year veteran and a former world champion back towards the beginning of his run. Khali - who is currently most famous for a bit part in the new Longest Yard movie - has the size worthy of a push. Early rumors had Khali being Vince McMahon representative at WrestleMania, to face Hulk Hogan and Donald Trump. When Hogan backed out - reportedly because Vince told him he wouldn't be earning more money than everyone else - Umaga took Khali's spot, and now we have this match. Kane stands 7'0", Khali 7'3" - it's rare that you see someone significantly taller than Kane - and both have no personality. But Kane has some sentimental value with longtime fans, while Khali is a relative newcomer. So it's one thing to have Kane come out on top in this match - it's another to Khali's longevity to have him steal a win here. I like Kane as a heel and I'd like to see him move back toward the main event, so I'm pulling for him, but it's probably a smarter move overall to have Khali win and gain more credibility, and I think that's the direction they'll go.
Who I hope will win: Kane
Who I think will win: The Great Khali
WWE Women's Championship - LumberJill Match
Melina vs. Ashley
New concept, and it's smart - 12 other WWE divas will surround the ring during this match between the champion Melina, and recent Playboy covergirl Ashley. And even if they've still got enough credibility to land one on the cover every now and then, the female division at WWE ain't what it used to be with Trish Stratus and Lita no longer around. Longtime wrestling fans never thought they'd say "Man, I miss Chyna." Anyway, Melina is the one who screams all the time, and that's annoying, so let's go with Ashley. She's hot now, she'll probably win.
Who I hope will win: Ashley
Who I think will win: Ashley
No Disqualification Eight Man Tag
ECW Originals (Rob Van Dam, Sabu, Sandman & Tommy Dreamer)
vs. The New Breed (Elijah Burke, Kevin Thorn, Marcus Cor Von & Matt Striker)
Another easy storyline to write...RVD is rumored to be on the outs, that's why he doesn't get a more high-profile match after winning the WWE Championship just 10 months ago. The ECW Originals are still fun to watch, and these new guys may end up being nothing but cannon fodder - of them, only Elijah Burke seems like someone that has real potential. Same with Kane/Khali - if the WWE wants to give them a name and give ECW more of a future, they'll let them escape with the win. RVD's future absence may help that. But WrestleMania has a way of giving the people what they want. Joey Styles fans, mark out.
Who I hope will win: ECW Originals
Who I think will win: ECW Originals
United States Championship
Chris Benoit vs. Montel Vontavious Porter
All together now: "Chris Benoit deserves better!" After falling out of the main event picture, they put the US title on Benoit back in November and keep leaving it there - hey wait, is this WCW? - so the question here is, does Benoit drop the belt and signal a continued move up for MVP, while putting Benoit back towards the main event himself...or does MVP, who's gotten some significant SmackDown wins but is currently most famous for getting really set on fire in an inferno match last year, get squashed here and go down a peg? I don't like MVP, who has the worst attire since Owen Hart's "I look like a @#%! street sign!" costume. So we're pulling for Benoit, but it'd be better long term if MVP gets the belt here.
Who I hope will win: Chris Benoit
Who I think will win: MVP
Money in the Bank Ladder Match
CM Punk - Edge - Finlay - Jeff Hardy - King Booker - Matt Hardy - Mr. Kennedy - Randy Orton
The premise here, if you're unfamiliar, is putting a briefcase at the top of a ladder above the ring, and whoever captures it first gets a title shot anytime he chooses over the next 365 days. They did a great job of using this in a unique way to get the belt from RVD to Edge over the summer. Anyway, ladder matches are great 95% of the time - though Rey Mysterio and Eddie Guerrero proved you can suck at one at SummerSlam 2005 - and with eight people involved, the stakes are high. With the exception of Finlay and Mr. Kennedy, I like all of these guys and think they can really go. CM Punk has a lot of pop with the crowd, Edge can play on the main event level and has legit heat, as does Randy Orton, King Booker (Booker T, in case you didn't figure that out) has been around the block, and the Hardys know how to work ladder matches. Edge and Orton are the two biggest names in this thing (sorry Booker), but they've been going at each other lately and may end up costing each other the match. Same potential exists for an instant-feud between the Hardys. Edge is undefeated at WrestleMania, and I like him as the heel enough to pull for him to get a title shot here, but the fact that they haven't been talking about his WrestleMania undefeated streak makes me think he won't win. Jeff Hardy is an attractive choice, but so is the Jeff vs. Matt feud, which makes me think about picking Booker...but we'll stick with Jeff.
Who I hope will win: Edge
Who I think will win: Jeff Hardy
Battle of the Billionaires - Hair vs. Hair Match
Bobby Lashley (w/ Donald Trump) vs. Umaga (w/ Vince McMahon)
Special Guest Referee: Stone Cold Steve Austin
...and let's forget any ideas that the main attraction here is anyone but Stone Cold. I was never a huge Austin mark - always more into DX and then The Rock during Austin's prime - but it's still fun and nostalgic to hear the glass break and then watch him walk down and raise both arms on the turnbuckle. Aside from the fact that it would get more national press, I just can't see Donald Trump coming out of this bald. Bobby Lashley can really go, and they've done a good job with Umaga (only career losses to John Cena for the title) so far. Two points if you know that Umaga is one of those guys from Three Minute Warning. One point if you remember Three Minute Warning. Three points if you can tell me if he was Rosey or Jamal. Anyway, logic says Lashley - who I bet is even higher up the food chain come WrestleMania 24 (outside baby, at the Citrus Bowl!)
Who I hope will win: Lashley
Who I think will win: Lashley
World Heavyweight Championship
Batista vs. The Undertaker
Here's a list of The Undertaker's victims at WrestleMania: Superfly Jimmy Snuka, Jake "The Snake" Roberts, Giant Gonzales, King Kong Bundy, Diesel, Sycho Sid Vicious, Kane in an Inferno Match, Big Boss Man in the worst Hell in a Cell match ever, Triple H, Ric Flair, Big Show & A-Train in a handicap match, Kane again, Randy Orton, and Mark Henry in a Casket Match. That's 14 wins, zero losses. When you look at those names, while they're missing the true legends (Undertaker faced - and lost to - Steve Austin and Bret Hart at SummerSlam, and lost to Shawn Michaels at the Royal Rumble, and traded victories with The Rock and Hulk Hogan at various points), it's still impressive. Twice - against Triple H at X-7, and in a match that exceeded everyone's expectations against Ric Flair the next year - I was sure the streak was going to end, but he kept going. So, why is Batista going to be the man that stops the streak? He's got the gold, but Undertaker is currently the biggest face in the WWE. And he's much better as the heel - I hope he wins the gold, because it would be an injustice to have Batista stop the streak, and then they find a way to turn him heel and put him against Bobby Lashley or someone like that. The best possible main event they could put together right now, with Triple H down, would be Shawn Michaels vs. The Undertaker. That's some real old school for you, right there. Put that on my fantasy wish list for WrestleMania 24 as a final farewell for both of them, along with a Hulk Hogan vs. Ric Flair match with the same stipulation. But I'm not running the show, now am I?
Who I hope will win: Undertaker
Who I think will win: Undertaker
WWE Championship
John Cena vs. Shawn Michaels
Mark it down: HBK will make this the best match of the night. That's just what he does. Love him or hate him, Shawn Michaels can still go, and when he goes, he takes the other guy with him and ends up making it the match of their career. Michaels' WrestleMania resume includes a 1-2 record with Marty Jennetty as The Rockers, and then a win over Tito Santana and an IC loss to Tatanka before he started making people famous. In the first ever Ladder Match, Michaels lost to Razor Ramon at X. He made the main event (because we don't count LT and Bam Bam) the next year and lost to Diesel. In the first ever IronMan Match, Michaels beat Bret Hart in overtime at XII. At XIV, he passed the torch to Steve Austin in the main event in his last WWE match for four years with a wrecked back, in one of the grittiest wrestling performances ever. Upon returning to WWE at SummerSlam in 2002, HBK took down Chris Jericho in a legendary return at XIX, was part of the Triple Threat Match with Triple H and Chris Benoit that gave Benoit his first world title at XX, lost to Kurt Angle at XXI in another legendary match, before doing the apparently mandatory "let's put him against Vince McMahon!" match last year. Even so, his matches with Razor Ramon, Bret Hart, Steve Austin, Chris Jericho, HHH/Benoit, and Angle are among the best in WrestleMania history. This is what Shawn Michaels does. Which brings us to John Cena - loved by few, hated by many. He's alright, I guess, he's just not the flagship. They may try and make him be by having him retain, but the louder the boos have gotten over the last few weeks, the more I think HBK is walking out as a five time champ. Shawn Michaels has always been my personal favorite - I think he gets to the top of the mountain one more time.
Who I hope will win: Shawn Michaels
Who I think will win: Shawn Michaels
If you're looking for more history, you can check out IGN's excellent piece on the 20 Greatest WrestleMania Matches of All Time.
Friday, March 30, 2007
2007 Baseball Preview
In every sport, there are specific moments that stand out every season. The Super Bowl. Sunday at The Masters. Daytona. Any Fall Saturday.
There are also non-championship moments - like the slam dunk contest - that I particularly enjoy, and enjoy probably more than most everything else in the season. If the Celtics or the Braves make the playoffs, then obviously those weeks and moments move to the top of the list. But if not, I don't enjoy watching them nearly as much in comparison to other postseason events, or to novelty things like the dunk contest.
That being said, my favorite non-Braves-in-the-playoffs moment in any given baseball season is Opening Day. ESPN has been running a great commercial that hits the highlights, but it's the idea that, at least for one day, it's our year. It's everybody's year. No one is hurt, no one is a disappointment, no one is fired, the stands are packed, and hope springs eternal. Grass is green, uniforms are clean, and you're on the first step of a 162 game, seven month journey. And while that journey will start dragging sooner than later, on opening day you're happier to see the wind and delivery than at any other point during the season.
Moments away from opening day, and with the first full slate of games coming on April 2, here are my predictions for the 2007 baseball season...and away we go...
AL EAST
1. Yankees
Is this still the best on paper team in baseball? In the lineup, I don't think you'll find any comparison. On the mound, it's up for debate. Either way, the Ben Affleck "At least God is on our side...because He'd have to be, right?" quote from a few years ago is still valid. When the lineup is announced on opening day and you hear Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and Doug Mientkiewicz, you'll once again wonder if you came to the all-star game by mistake. Somehow, the Yankees lost Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield, and still look like the best team in baseball. The rotation now feature Chien-Ming Wang as the ace (19-6, 3.63 last year) with the always reliable Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina behind him. Mariano Rivera is still wearing pinstripes - though the Yankees still have Kyle Farnsworth as well, who I'm convinced spells postseason doom for whomever he plays for. The question marks are in the four and five holes - Kei Igawa, that other guy from Japan, and the explosive Carl Pavano currently fill those spots. But all those questions could be answered with an acquisition of Roger Clemens down the road. Whether they get back to the World Series (haven't been since 2003) or win it (haven't done since 2000, believe it or not) isn't the point here, though it is the point in the Bronx. New York has won the AL East every year since 1997 - still six years shy of the Braves' run, thank you very much - and even though you can say "the Red Sox might be better" yet again this season, no reason to go anywhere but NYY with this pick.
2. Red Sox (Wild Card)
Boston still remembers that it's less about winning the AL East and more about winning in October, but that's not to say that they wouldn't like to upend the Yankees in the standings for once. They continue to look more and more like the Yankees in the offseason, splurging for JD Drew and picking up Julio Lugo. Big Papi, Manny Ramirez, and Jason Varitek still anchor this team, and guys like Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, and Coco Crisp are not slouches. This will be the most interesting rotation in baseball, with Curt Schilling and his expiring contract up first, Josh Beckett and the still going strong Tim Wakefield behind him, and everyone's favorite sensation, Daisuke Matsuzaka. What Dice-K can or can't do will be a major story in 2007, and at least at first, everyone will be tuning in when he starts. The Red Sox recently announced that Jonathan Papelbon will, in fact, be returning to his closer role, which leaves a fifth starter hole in the rotation. Boston is also projected to start rookie Dustin Pedroia at second base. Despite the few question marks, the Yankees and Red Sox are still 1 and 1A in terms of the most talented teams in baseball.
3. Blue Jays
If you're not really into baseball but you'd like to start, and you want to find a team to pull for, may I recommend the Toronto Blue Jays. There's little debate that the Blue Jays will field one of the ten best teams in baseball. They just happen to play with the Yankees and Red Sox as their neighbors. These guys are the poor man's version of those two, with excellent talent that wasn't bought with big market baseball money on a whim. The Blue Jays did add Frank Thomas at DH this season to stay in the race - they actually finished ahead of Boston in the standings last year - and while guys like Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus may not be household names the way the Yankees and Red Sox superstars are, they're just as capable of getting it done. Roy Halladay has been one of, if not the most, underappreciated pitchers in major league baseball for several years now. AJ Burnett will be the number two and is also capable of getting it done. Toronto's rotation drops off sharply from there, though they added John Thomson as a starter and Victor Zambrano to the bullpen. You almost have to pick them third by default, because they're not the Yankees or Red Sox, but fully expect them to be in the thick of the race once again, and maybe one of these years they'll end up inside the postseason picture instead of just out of it once again.
4. Orioles
When you look at Baltimore's lineup, with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada and the newly acquired Aubrey Huff, you think "hey, maybe they've got a chance..." But the pitching is enitrely another story. Ace Erik Bedard is better than you think, but the rest of the staff is a giant question mark at best. They've got enough pop in their bats to be interesting if the pitching takes shape, but it seems more likely that they're destined to the back of the pack, irrelevant once again. At least they didn't spend millions of dollars this offseason to stay that way.
5. Devil Rays
Minus one manager, the Devil Rays will once again try and escape the AL East cellar. They do have Carl Crawford, who Sports Illustrated believes is the best outfielder in the American League. They don't have much else to make you believe. The Japanese invasion continues here, with 3B Akinori Iwamura joining the D-Rays. You never know about these guys, but Tampa Bay will need several unheralded players to take off to be successful now. The youth of this team is intriguing, and if they keep improving and stay around, TB might be really dangerous not far down the road. But this isn't their year.
AL CENTRAL
1. White Sox
You could throw darts and come up with a logical AL Central champion, as long as you take Kansas City off the board. The real kicker is, the White Sox, Tigers, Twins and Indians are all good ballclubs - this isn't a crappy division where someone will get lucky. That being said, I like Ozzie's White Sox to get back to the playoffs. They can still flat kill the ball, with four players - Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Joe Crede - slapping 30+ home runs last year. They picked up Darin Erstad to go with Scott Podseknik and AJ Pierzynski in the lineup along with the long ball hitters. The starting rotation is interesting - they don't have the dominant starter like Johan Santana, or the flash of the combination of Verlander and Bonderman in Detroit. But Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras might end up being the most consistent starting trio in this division. And they've got the offense to support them. I think Detroit was lucky. I think Chicago is good.
2. Tigers
Detroit did a great job of keeping all the key elements intact, then they went out and added Gary Sheffield at the cost of three prospects. Another team that may not dazzle you with sex appeal the way the Yankees and Red Sox do, but you want to pull for guys like Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Pudge Rodriguez, Sean Casey, and Brandon Inge. Plus, their pitching staff - late season and postseason struggles aside, which is probably youth related - is fun to watch, with Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander flanking the ol' reliable, Kenny Rogers. The bullpen is solid. The AL Central is wildly competitive, with the top four teams all capable of winning the division or the wild card. I think Detroit's magic ran out last year - they'll still be right in the thick of it, but not quite good enough to get back to October.
3. Twins
Guess who's won four of the last five AL Central titles? That's right - while the White Sox won the 05 World Series and the Tigers stole hearts last year, it was Minnesota who won the AL Central, again, on the final day of the season. They've still got the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana, who's already won two Cy Youngs (19-6, 2.77 last year). They've still got Joe Mauer (who cooled off to .347 by season's end last year), Justin Morneau (.321 and 34 homers), and Torii Hunter. But to win the division this year, they'd better hope Santana wins every single one of his starts - the rest of the rotation is alarmingly worse. The only other returning starter from 2006 who had a winning record is - I swear to God - Boof Bonser, 7-6 last year. The rest of the staff simply must pick up the slack. The Twins are consistently surprising and always in the conversation, but the best I can do this year is third.
4. Indians
Cleveland is better on paper than Minnesota, but unproven. But the potential is clearly there - Sports Illustrated picked them to win this division - but my question is, where's the run support coming from? Travis Hafner can get it done, but everyone else isn't what I'd call overly productive at the plate. Grady Sizemore, Trot Nixon, Victor Martinez, and David Dellucci all need to up their production if the Indians are serious about October. CC Sabathia can get it done, and the rest of their starters are pretty decent. They've brought in Joe Borowski to close after losing Bob Wickman to Atlanta - I think Borowski is overrated. Translation: improved and good, but not good enough in this division.
5. Royals
Ew. Kansas City's got a vital piece of Atlanta's championship-building organization in Dayton Moore, but you know it's bad when I've gotta start this piece by talking about someone in the front office instead of the on-field product. Kansas City is flat bad, and might be the worst team in baseball. They got in the "let's overpay for an average pitcher" game during the offseason and ended up making Gil Meche a rich, rich man and their new number one starter. Meche was 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA last year, just so you know. Their biggest returning bat is Mark Teahen - .290 and 18 homers last year. Yikes. At least there's nowhere to go but up. It just may not be going up anytime soon.
AL WEST
1. Rangers
The upset pick in the bracket...this is a potential pick, not a result pick. The Rangers are rolling the dice on offseason acquisitions Kenny Lofton, Sammy Sosa, Brandon McCarthy, and Eric Gagne. They don't need all four of them to be all-stars for this team to make a playoff push, but they can't have all of them implode either. Even without those four, the pieces were there - Michael Young, Mark Teixeira (the best 1B in the AL), and Hank Blaylock already helped comprise one of the game's best infields. Kevin Millwood is a solid leader of the staff, and the bullpen is also loaded with potential. The firing of Buck Showalter and the hiring of Ron Washington will probably have more positive effects than negative. Most folks like the Angels here - SI has them winning the World Series - but there's nothing overwhelming about them to me, and I like the Rangers to throw a wrench in the equation.
2. Angels
LAA got Gary Matthews Jr. from Texas, added Shea Hillenbrand to DH, and will have plenty of returning pieces in place - Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Orlando Cabrera, with John Lackey leading the rotation and Francisco Rodriguez anchoring the bullpen. Lots of talent, plenty of potential. But I don't know, there's something about them that doesn't ring of championship. I don't look at this team and think that they're going to win in October - though you certainly could've said the same about Detroit last year. The Angels are certainly talented enough to be right there, I'm just rolling the dice with Texas.
3. Athletics
Oakland has lost Zito, Hudson and Mulder, but is working to replace them with Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton. The A's also picked up Mike Piazza, who will strictly DH, to replace Frank Thomas - an easy decision with the reliable Jason Kendall behind the plate. The rest of the lineup fills out decently with Milton Bradley, Eric Chavez, and new acquisition Shannon Stewart in left. But even if the rotation carries them, I don't see Oakland in the playoffs either. But I wouldn't be overly surprised if they made another run into October.
4. Mariners
If you want a team that's not expected to do much but might surprise, how about Seattle? You've got the old reliables in Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and Richie Sexson, and the Mariners added two Joses - Vidro to DH, and Guillen in right - to the lineup this offseason. Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn are good options up front in the rotation, and it's entirely retooled behind them, with Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez filling it out. I like the potential of that, with JJ Putz as the closer. Beware of Chris Reitsma in the bullpen, he's close to joining the Kyle Farnsworth club. Playing in this division, don't be stunned if Seattle makes some serious noise - the safe pick is to put them in the cellar, but you never know...
NL EAST
1. Mets
Giving credit where it's due, the Mets are easily the best on paper team in the NL East, and will rival the Dodgers as the best on paper team in the National League. They were an inch away from the World Series - how they respond to that in 2007, especially with Pedro Martinez out until something like August, will be critical to their success both now and down the road. They're still loaded top to bottom, returning Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Shawn Green, and Jose Valentin. Then they went out and picked up Moises Alou. I'm setting the over/under for all-star starters from the Mets at 4. Without Pedro, the ace spot falls to the crafty Tom Glavine - 15-7, 3.82 last year, still got it - but it's a little more questionable from there. When Orlando Hernandez is your next best option, I'd sweat a drop or two. John Maine is also there, but it keeps dropping off after that - Oliver Perez was hot late but terrible early, and rookie Mike Pelfrey is currently penciled in as the fifth starter. The good news is, Billy Wagner is still in the pen. The NL East should still be more competitive than last year if the Braves and Phillies live up to expectations, and how far that starting rotation can carry this team until Pedro comes back will be interesting. At full strength, this team should have no problem getting back into the playoffs, if not going all the way.
2. Braves (Wild Card)
Atlanta has a long history of overcompensation - after losing a ton of 2-1 and 3-2 playoff games in their 90s prime, Atlanta opened the checkbook and unloaded in the early part of this decade on power, culminating with the explosive 2002 team that should've won the whole thing, but instead fell to San Francisco in five in the NLDS. Since then, Atlanta has scrapped around with guys like Russ Ortiz, Johnny Estrada, and other key players, while still managing to make the playoffs and win the division each year, until last year. And the frustrating thing about 2006 is that it wasn't like it was a stellar year for the NL Wild Card race - playing a little about .500 would've been enough to get it done. Nevertheless, the Braves looked their biggest flaw - an anemic bullpen - right in the eye, and once again unloaded, picking up Bob Wickman at the deadline last year, and then adding Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in the offseason. This is the best bullpen in recent Atlanta history, better than anything they had during their long championship run. The flip side is that they lost half of their infield, losing Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche, and replacing them with big question marks in Scott Thorman at first (.234 hitter last year) and Kelly Johnson at second (I'm not sure he's ever played there). The rest of the offense will be fine - Edgar Renteria enjoyed a rebound season in Atlanta, the Jones Boys are still swinging hard (though maybe for one last ride, as Andruw is a free agent after this season and can earn huge money in the market), and the Baby Braves - Brian McCann, the best catcher in the NL last year, and Jeff Francoeur, equal parts clutch and heartbreak - are back as well. The rotation will again be led by John Smoltz, who wins the Cy Young with run support last year, and the jeckel and hyde Tim Hudson - 13-12 last year, and yet to live up to his billing upon arriving in Atlanta two years ago. Whenever Mike Hampton returns - from a two year injury bug - his impact will be nothing but a question mark at first. Chuck James showed the most promise as a rookie last year (11-4, 3.78) and Atlanta will definitely need that to continue. The Braves have more questions, especially on offense, than the Mets, and with the streak broken I'm picking NYM to win the East. But the goal for Atlanta remains October, and whether as the division champ or the wild card, this team should be there.
3. Phillies
The Phillies are talking a big game, and many experts are picking them as a dark horse for the NL pennant. They've got the bats - Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard (58 HRs last year), and Pat Burrell all jacked at least 25 homers last year. Brett Myers and Cole Hamels are solid options, and Freddy Garcia was a great pickup. The bullpen is as much of a question mark as you think Tom "Flash" Gordon - another one of those "I can't believe he's still in the league" guys - is capable of continuing to get it done as a closer. Even so, they're not as talented as the Phillies, and I think they're on an even pace with the Braves. And until I see it, it'll be the same story in Philadelphia - they look great in April, but come up short in September.
4. Marlins
The division drops off sharply from here. The 2003 World Series Champions may not have fallen as fast as they did after winning in 1997, but they're definitely on the outside looking in just four years after winning the whole thing. Dontrelle Willis is still there, but he was 12-12 last season and didn't dominate. Anibal Sanchez was arguably the better pitcher last year. Dan Uggla at 2B and Miguel Cabrera at third still make a big difference, but there are lots of question marks in the lineup and especially in the bullpen, where rookie Henry Owens is expected to close. The talent gap between them and the top three teams in this division is probably too great to overcome.
5. Nationals
Another candidate for the worst team in baseball. Felipe Lopez is a good option at second, but they'll be relying on Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns to turn in career years just to be competitive. And then there's the pitching. Do you know any of these names: John Patterson, Shawn Hill, Jason Simontacchi, Matt Chico, Tim Redding? Me neither. That's their starting rotation. That equals last place.
NL CENTRAL
1. Cardinals
Let's keep in mind that this game, once again, is about getting to October. So nevermind that STL went 83-79 in the regular season. Even without running over the rest of the NL the way they had done in the previous two seasons, and despite falling apart at the seems after the all-star break and limping into the playoffs, the Cardinals turned it on and got the ring. So now what? They still play in this crazy division, which could be the best or the worst in baseball. They've still got a great lineup - David Eckstein, Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion...they've still got Chris Carpenter, but the pitching staff takes a turn from there. How sharp of a turn is really up for debate - Mark Mulder will miss the first part of the year, but will be back before it's through, and then you've got Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes, who were both $$$ in the World Series, but are untested as starters over the long haul. STL still has the offense to keep pace regardless of the struggles on the mound, and they've still got Jason Isringhausen to shut them down on the other end. This division is unpredictable, but when your next best option is the Cubs, it's wise to play it safe here. The Cardinals head towards October, again.
2. Cubs
If it's almost April, that means it must be their year. And there are, as always, some reasons to believe it, and perhaps moreso this year. Let's start with Alfonso Soriano - but any time a player comes into a baseball-frenzied environment where he is THE superstar - which Soriano was not in New York - you don't really know what's going to happen for sure. But all signs point to him being helpful, moreso if he materializes in center. He'll be flanked by Jacque Jones and another new acquisition, Cliff Floyd, for a solid outfield. You'd be hard pressed to find a better first-and-third combo than a healthy Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez - except, of course, in St. Louis. And New York, but that's beside the point. Michael Barrett is solid, but the Cubs will need career benchwarmer Mark DeRosa to come up big at 2B. And then there's the pitching staff, where for the first time in four years, the weight doesn't fall on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. In fact, it's everything but - Wood is in the bullpen working middle relief, and Prior is in Triple A and on the fast track to an ESPN Classic special, because he may never get back. Carlos Zambrano is everything you want in an ace - he talks it (already guaranteeing a World Series this year), then he walks it (16-7, 3.41 last year playing for the worst team in this division). The Cubs grabbed Ted Lilly, then got Jason Marquis from the champion Cardinals, so we'll see. It's the Cubs, so it's a dice roll no matter what...if St. Louis stumbles the way they did last year in the regular season, I think Chicago can give them a real run for their money for the division. If STL plays to form, Chicago isn't as good, and will have to dig in to the Wild Card hunt. I think Lou Piniella will get them in the hunt, but October right away may be too much to ask for. But everyone in America who even knows a whiff about baseball will be pulling for them to get in, because then the playoffs instantly become more dramatic. Is this the year?
3. Astros
Houston's window for a championship has opened and closed, or so it would seem. So few people cared about the 2005 Astros-White Sox World Series - especially on the heels of Red Sox mania - that you forget that Houston was swept by losing 5-3, 7-6, 7-5 in 14 innings, and 1-0. They were right there, but it still seems so far away and so long ago. Now, with Roger Clemens still the enigma and looking more likely to face retirement or the Yankees/Red Sox than the Astros, and with Andy Pettite already in New York, and Jeff Bagwell retired...could be trouble. They've still got Roy Oswalt, who's arguably the NL's best pitcher. They've still got Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman, combined with ex-Vol Chris Burke to make the new Killer B's...but they're much less fearsome. You look at the rest of the lineup - Carlos Lee, Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus - and you think "hey, these guys aren't bad at all..." - and they're not - but if they couldn't get it done in the last 4-5 seasons, why will they now? Even with Jason Jennings and Woody Williams added to the rotation, and Brad Lidge - the most adventurous closer going now that Farnsworth is middle relief - again, why with this team instead of with more powerful, more talented teams in years past? They're not going away, they should be in the wild card chase...and I guess anyone can win this division...but I'm not betting on the Astros anymore.
4. Reds
If you like pitching, you put the Brewers here. If you like hitting, you've gotta go with the Reds. And their pitching is far from terrible at the top - Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo - it's the bullpen that's full of questions. In the lineup, you've got some names who've lost some pop in their bats - most notably Ken Griffey Jr, the seasoned veteran. Adam Dunn can still kill the ball, and guys like Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez can help this team as well. Too thin on the mound to consider the playoffs.
5. Brewers
Alright, it's time for the annual "Can you name a Milwaukee Brewer?" game. Anyone? If you take away Ben Sheets on the mound, can you name anyone in their lineup? ...I couldn't either, but SI tells me that Johnny Estrada plays for them now, as does Craig Counsell. Then the youth - Prince Fielder and Bill Hall - takes over, and the future is looking brighter in Milwaukee. But SI also tells me that Milwaukee hasn't had a winning season in 14 years. Ouch.
6. Pirates
The new home of Adam LaRoche, who'll team with Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in the lineup. The pitching staff is atrocious - the best returning starting ERA belongs to Zach Duke at 4.47. Any reason to pick them anywhere but the cellar in this division? I didn't think so.
NL WEST
1. Dodgers
Ladies and gentlemen, the best team in the National League. No, it's not the Mets or the defending champion Cardinals. It's LA. They added Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez in the outfield, added Randy Wolf and Jason Schmidt on the mound, and they play in a division that'll be much easier to win than the talent-rich NL East or the topsy-turvy NL Central. If the Dodgers don't end up with the best record in the NL, I'll be stunned. The lineup 1-5: Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez. They've also got Wilson Betemit hanging around at 3B. Then, on the mound, is this the NL's best staff? Derek Lowe leads Wolf and Schmidt. Brad Penny - 16-9, 4.33 last year - is the 4th starter. Yikes. If they get more good play out of closer Takashi Saito, you can really look out. They're thinking championship in LA. They're right.
2. Padres
The Giles Bros. will lead off, with Mike Cameron and Adrian Gonzalez behind them. The lineup drops off a bit after that, but San Diego can support them from the mound, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Clay Hensley, and new addition Greg Maddux, who all won at least 11 last year. And then there's David Wells, and you never know with him. And yeah, Trevor Hoffman will still be striking fear into hearts as the closer. These guys are good - they're not Dodger good, but they can play - and may make a run at the wild card.
3. Giants
Lots of people are writing San Fran off and putting them in the cellar, but I don't think they're that terrible. They added Barry Zito and they still have the human walk machine in Barry Bonds. Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia can still play, and the rest of their rotation isn't terrible (if somebody gets ahold of Russ Ortiz - 0-8, 8.14 last year, but he used to have good stuff). The always fun Armando Benitez will try and close it out for them again. The nation will be watching Bonds Barry Bonds as he goes for 755 and tries not to suffer injury again. I think they'll make the most of the extra spotlight and be slightly better than people think. But no playoffs.
4. Diamondbacks
A wealth of talent disguised as youth - though it could be the other way around - plus the return of Randy Johnson makes the D-Backs an interesting team. He won't have to carry the staff - that's Brandon Webb's job - and they've got bullpen issues. The lineup is a complete wild card 1-9 - lots of youth, little proven power, but we'll see. They could rise as high as 2nd in this division if it comes together, or finish in the cellar. Again, we'll see.
5. Rockies
Get Todd Helton out of there! His Hall of Fame talent continues to wilt away out in the Rockies - I was excited about those trade rumors with the Red Sox earlier, maybe that'll come up again at the All-Star break. Matt Holliday is vastly underrated, Kaz Matsui has talent and might fare better in Denver, and Garrett Atkins can hit, but the rest of the lineup - including two projected rookie starters - is lacking. And the pitching - already burdened with the thin air - leaves much to be desired among Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Rodrigo Lopez and rookie Jason Hirsh. It's the projected cellar for these guys - let's get Todd Helton on a contender!
There are also non-championship moments - like the slam dunk contest - that I particularly enjoy, and enjoy probably more than most everything else in the season. If the Celtics or the Braves make the playoffs, then obviously those weeks and moments move to the top of the list. But if not, I don't enjoy watching them nearly as much in comparison to other postseason events, or to novelty things like the dunk contest.
That being said, my favorite non-Braves-in-the-playoffs moment in any given baseball season is Opening Day. ESPN has been running a great commercial that hits the highlights, but it's the idea that, at least for one day, it's our year. It's everybody's year. No one is hurt, no one is a disappointment, no one is fired, the stands are packed, and hope springs eternal. Grass is green, uniforms are clean, and you're on the first step of a 162 game, seven month journey. And while that journey will start dragging sooner than later, on opening day you're happier to see the wind and delivery than at any other point during the season.
Moments away from opening day, and with the first full slate of games coming on April 2, here are my predictions for the 2007 baseball season...and away we go...
AL EAST
1. Yankees
Is this still the best on paper team in baseball? In the lineup, I don't think you'll find any comparison. On the mound, it's up for debate. Either way, the Ben Affleck "At least God is on our side...because He'd have to be, right?" quote from a few years ago is still valid. When the lineup is announced on opening day and you hear Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and Doug Mientkiewicz, you'll once again wonder if you came to the all-star game by mistake. Somehow, the Yankees lost Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield, and still look like the best team in baseball. The rotation now feature Chien-Ming Wang as the ace (19-6, 3.63 last year) with the always reliable Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina behind him. Mariano Rivera is still wearing pinstripes - though the Yankees still have Kyle Farnsworth as well, who I'm convinced spells postseason doom for whomever he plays for. The question marks are in the four and five holes - Kei Igawa, that other guy from Japan, and the explosive Carl Pavano currently fill those spots. But all those questions could be answered with an acquisition of Roger Clemens down the road. Whether they get back to the World Series (haven't been since 2003) or win it (haven't done since 2000, believe it or not) isn't the point here, though it is the point in the Bronx. New York has won the AL East every year since 1997 - still six years shy of the Braves' run, thank you very much - and even though you can say "the Red Sox might be better" yet again this season, no reason to go anywhere but NYY with this pick.
2. Red Sox (Wild Card)
Boston still remembers that it's less about winning the AL East and more about winning in October, but that's not to say that they wouldn't like to upend the Yankees in the standings for once. They continue to look more and more like the Yankees in the offseason, splurging for JD Drew and picking up Julio Lugo. Big Papi, Manny Ramirez, and Jason Varitek still anchor this team, and guys like Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, and Coco Crisp are not slouches. This will be the most interesting rotation in baseball, with Curt Schilling and his expiring contract up first, Josh Beckett and the still going strong Tim Wakefield behind him, and everyone's favorite sensation, Daisuke Matsuzaka. What Dice-K can or can't do will be a major story in 2007, and at least at first, everyone will be tuning in when he starts. The Red Sox recently announced that Jonathan Papelbon will, in fact, be returning to his closer role, which leaves a fifth starter hole in the rotation. Boston is also projected to start rookie Dustin Pedroia at second base. Despite the few question marks, the Yankees and Red Sox are still 1 and 1A in terms of the most talented teams in baseball.
3. Blue Jays
If you're not really into baseball but you'd like to start, and you want to find a team to pull for, may I recommend the Toronto Blue Jays. There's little debate that the Blue Jays will field one of the ten best teams in baseball. They just happen to play with the Yankees and Red Sox as their neighbors. These guys are the poor man's version of those two, with excellent talent that wasn't bought with big market baseball money on a whim. The Blue Jays did add Frank Thomas at DH this season to stay in the race - they actually finished ahead of Boston in the standings last year - and while guys like Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus may not be household names the way the Yankees and Red Sox superstars are, they're just as capable of getting it done. Roy Halladay has been one of, if not the most, underappreciated pitchers in major league baseball for several years now. AJ Burnett will be the number two and is also capable of getting it done. Toronto's rotation drops off sharply from there, though they added John Thomson as a starter and Victor Zambrano to the bullpen. You almost have to pick them third by default, because they're not the Yankees or Red Sox, but fully expect them to be in the thick of the race once again, and maybe one of these years they'll end up inside the postseason picture instead of just out of it once again.
4. Orioles
When you look at Baltimore's lineup, with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada and the newly acquired Aubrey Huff, you think "hey, maybe they've got a chance..." But the pitching is enitrely another story. Ace Erik Bedard is better than you think, but the rest of the staff is a giant question mark at best. They've got enough pop in their bats to be interesting if the pitching takes shape, but it seems more likely that they're destined to the back of the pack, irrelevant once again. At least they didn't spend millions of dollars this offseason to stay that way.
5. Devil Rays
Minus one manager, the Devil Rays will once again try and escape the AL East cellar. They do have Carl Crawford, who Sports Illustrated believes is the best outfielder in the American League. They don't have much else to make you believe. The Japanese invasion continues here, with 3B Akinori Iwamura joining the D-Rays. You never know about these guys, but Tampa Bay will need several unheralded players to take off to be successful now. The youth of this team is intriguing, and if they keep improving and stay around, TB might be really dangerous not far down the road. But this isn't their year.
AL CENTRAL
1. White Sox
You could throw darts and come up with a logical AL Central champion, as long as you take Kansas City off the board. The real kicker is, the White Sox, Tigers, Twins and Indians are all good ballclubs - this isn't a crappy division where someone will get lucky. That being said, I like Ozzie's White Sox to get back to the playoffs. They can still flat kill the ball, with four players - Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Joe Crede - slapping 30+ home runs last year. They picked up Darin Erstad to go with Scott Podseknik and AJ Pierzynski in the lineup along with the long ball hitters. The starting rotation is interesting - they don't have the dominant starter like Johan Santana, or the flash of the combination of Verlander and Bonderman in Detroit. But Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras might end up being the most consistent starting trio in this division. And they've got the offense to support them. I think Detroit was lucky. I think Chicago is good.
2. Tigers
Detroit did a great job of keeping all the key elements intact, then they went out and added Gary Sheffield at the cost of three prospects. Another team that may not dazzle you with sex appeal the way the Yankees and Red Sox do, but you want to pull for guys like Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Pudge Rodriguez, Sean Casey, and Brandon Inge. Plus, their pitching staff - late season and postseason struggles aside, which is probably youth related - is fun to watch, with Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander flanking the ol' reliable, Kenny Rogers. The bullpen is solid. The AL Central is wildly competitive, with the top four teams all capable of winning the division or the wild card. I think Detroit's magic ran out last year - they'll still be right in the thick of it, but not quite good enough to get back to October.
3. Twins
Guess who's won four of the last five AL Central titles? That's right - while the White Sox won the 05 World Series and the Tigers stole hearts last year, it was Minnesota who won the AL Central, again, on the final day of the season. They've still got the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana, who's already won two Cy Youngs (19-6, 2.77 last year). They've still got Joe Mauer (who cooled off to .347 by season's end last year), Justin Morneau (.321 and 34 homers), and Torii Hunter. But to win the division this year, they'd better hope Santana wins every single one of his starts - the rest of the rotation is alarmingly worse. The only other returning starter from 2006 who had a winning record is - I swear to God - Boof Bonser, 7-6 last year. The rest of the staff simply must pick up the slack. The Twins are consistently surprising and always in the conversation, but the best I can do this year is third.
4. Indians
Cleveland is better on paper than Minnesota, but unproven. But the potential is clearly there - Sports Illustrated picked them to win this division - but my question is, where's the run support coming from? Travis Hafner can get it done, but everyone else isn't what I'd call overly productive at the plate. Grady Sizemore, Trot Nixon, Victor Martinez, and David Dellucci all need to up their production if the Indians are serious about October. CC Sabathia can get it done, and the rest of their starters are pretty decent. They've brought in Joe Borowski to close after losing Bob Wickman to Atlanta - I think Borowski is overrated. Translation: improved and good, but not good enough in this division.
5. Royals
Ew. Kansas City's got a vital piece of Atlanta's championship-building organization in Dayton Moore, but you know it's bad when I've gotta start this piece by talking about someone in the front office instead of the on-field product. Kansas City is flat bad, and might be the worst team in baseball. They got in the "let's overpay for an average pitcher" game during the offseason and ended up making Gil Meche a rich, rich man and their new number one starter. Meche was 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA last year, just so you know. Their biggest returning bat is Mark Teahen - .290 and 18 homers last year. Yikes. At least there's nowhere to go but up. It just may not be going up anytime soon.
AL WEST
1. Rangers
The upset pick in the bracket...this is a potential pick, not a result pick. The Rangers are rolling the dice on offseason acquisitions Kenny Lofton, Sammy Sosa, Brandon McCarthy, and Eric Gagne. They don't need all four of them to be all-stars for this team to make a playoff push, but they can't have all of them implode either. Even without those four, the pieces were there - Michael Young, Mark Teixeira (the best 1B in the AL), and Hank Blaylock already helped comprise one of the game's best infields. Kevin Millwood is a solid leader of the staff, and the bullpen is also loaded with potential. The firing of Buck Showalter and the hiring of Ron Washington will probably have more positive effects than negative. Most folks like the Angels here - SI has them winning the World Series - but there's nothing overwhelming about them to me, and I like the Rangers to throw a wrench in the equation.
2. Angels
LAA got Gary Matthews Jr. from Texas, added Shea Hillenbrand to DH, and will have plenty of returning pieces in place - Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Orlando Cabrera, with John Lackey leading the rotation and Francisco Rodriguez anchoring the bullpen. Lots of talent, plenty of potential. But I don't know, there's something about them that doesn't ring of championship. I don't look at this team and think that they're going to win in October - though you certainly could've said the same about Detroit last year. The Angels are certainly talented enough to be right there, I'm just rolling the dice with Texas.
3. Athletics
Oakland has lost Zito, Hudson and Mulder, but is working to replace them with Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton. The A's also picked up Mike Piazza, who will strictly DH, to replace Frank Thomas - an easy decision with the reliable Jason Kendall behind the plate. The rest of the lineup fills out decently with Milton Bradley, Eric Chavez, and new acquisition Shannon Stewart in left. But even if the rotation carries them, I don't see Oakland in the playoffs either. But I wouldn't be overly surprised if they made another run into October.
4. Mariners
If you want a team that's not expected to do much but might surprise, how about Seattle? You've got the old reliables in Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and Richie Sexson, and the Mariners added two Joses - Vidro to DH, and Guillen in right - to the lineup this offseason. Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn are good options up front in the rotation, and it's entirely retooled behind them, with Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez filling it out. I like the potential of that, with JJ Putz as the closer. Beware of Chris Reitsma in the bullpen, he's close to joining the Kyle Farnsworth club. Playing in this division, don't be stunned if Seattle makes some serious noise - the safe pick is to put them in the cellar, but you never know...
NL EAST
1. Mets
Giving credit where it's due, the Mets are easily the best on paper team in the NL East, and will rival the Dodgers as the best on paper team in the National League. They were an inch away from the World Series - how they respond to that in 2007, especially with Pedro Martinez out until something like August, will be critical to their success both now and down the road. They're still loaded top to bottom, returning Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Shawn Green, and Jose Valentin. Then they went out and picked up Moises Alou. I'm setting the over/under for all-star starters from the Mets at 4. Without Pedro, the ace spot falls to the crafty Tom Glavine - 15-7, 3.82 last year, still got it - but it's a little more questionable from there. When Orlando Hernandez is your next best option, I'd sweat a drop or two. John Maine is also there, but it keeps dropping off after that - Oliver Perez was hot late but terrible early, and rookie Mike Pelfrey is currently penciled in as the fifth starter. The good news is, Billy Wagner is still in the pen. The NL East should still be more competitive than last year if the Braves and Phillies live up to expectations, and how far that starting rotation can carry this team until Pedro comes back will be interesting. At full strength, this team should have no problem getting back into the playoffs, if not going all the way.
2. Braves (Wild Card)
Atlanta has a long history of overcompensation - after losing a ton of 2-1 and 3-2 playoff games in their 90s prime, Atlanta opened the checkbook and unloaded in the early part of this decade on power, culminating with the explosive 2002 team that should've won the whole thing, but instead fell to San Francisco in five in the NLDS. Since then, Atlanta has scrapped around with guys like Russ Ortiz, Johnny Estrada, and other key players, while still managing to make the playoffs and win the division each year, until last year. And the frustrating thing about 2006 is that it wasn't like it was a stellar year for the NL Wild Card race - playing a little about .500 would've been enough to get it done. Nevertheless, the Braves looked their biggest flaw - an anemic bullpen - right in the eye, and once again unloaded, picking up Bob Wickman at the deadline last year, and then adding Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in the offseason. This is the best bullpen in recent Atlanta history, better than anything they had during their long championship run. The flip side is that they lost half of their infield, losing Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche, and replacing them with big question marks in Scott Thorman at first (.234 hitter last year) and Kelly Johnson at second (I'm not sure he's ever played there). The rest of the offense will be fine - Edgar Renteria enjoyed a rebound season in Atlanta, the Jones Boys are still swinging hard (though maybe for one last ride, as Andruw is a free agent after this season and can earn huge money in the market), and the Baby Braves - Brian McCann, the best catcher in the NL last year, and Jeff Francoeur, equal parts clutch and heartbreak - are back as well. The rotation will again be led by John Smoltz, who wins the Cy Young with run support last year, and the jeckel and hyde Tim Hudson - 13-12 last year, and yet to live up to his billing upon arriving in Atlanta two years ago. Whenever Mike Hampton returns - from a two year injury bug - his impact will be nothing but a question mark at first. Chuck James showed the most promise as a rookie last year (11-4, 3.78) and Atlanta will definitely need that to continue. The Braves have more questions, especially on offense, than the Mets, and with the streak broken I'm picking NYM to win the East. But the goal for Atlanta remains October, and whether as the division champ or the wild card, this team should be there.
3. Phillies
The Phillies are talking a big game, and many experts are picking them as a dark horse for the NL pennant. They've got the bats - Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard (58 HRs last year), and Pat Burrell all jacked at least 25 homers last year. Brett Myers and Cole Hamels are solid options, and Freddy Garcia was a great pickup. The bullpen is as much of a question mark as you think Tom "Flash" Gordon - another one of those "I can't believe he's still in the league" guys - is capable of continuing to get it done as a closer. Even so, they're not as talented as the Phillies, and I think they're on an even pace with the Braves. And until I see it, it'll be the same story in Philadelphia - they look great in April, but come up short in September.
4. Marlins
The division drops off sharply from here. The 2003 World Series Champions may not have fallen as fast as they did after winning in 1997, but they're definitely on the outside looking in just four years after winning the whole thing. Dontrelle Willis is still there, but he was 12-12 last season and didn't dominate. Anibal Sanchez was arguably the better pitcher last year. Dan Uggla at 2B and Miguel Cabrera at third still make a big difference, but there are lots of question marks in the lineup and especially in the bullpen, where rookie Henry Owens is expected to close. The talent gap between them and the top three teams in this division is probably too great to overcome.
5. Nationals
Another candidate for the worst team in baseball. Felipe Lopez is a good option at second, but they'll be relying on Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns to turn in career years just to be competitive. And then there's the pitching. Do you know any of these names: John Patterson, Shawn Hill, Jason Simontacchi, Matt Chico, Tim Redding? Me neither. That's their starting rotation. That equals last place.
NL CENTRAL
1. Cardinals
Let's keep in mind that this game, once again, is about getting to October. So nevermind that STL went 83-79 in the regular season. Even without running over the rest of the NL the way they had done in the previous two seasons, and despite falling apart at the seems after the all-star break and limping into the playoffs, the Cardinals turned it on and got the ring. So now what? They still play in this crazy division, which could be the best or the worst in baseball. They've still got a great lineup - David Eckstein, Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion...they've still got Chris Carpenter, but the pitching staff takes a turn from there. How sharp of a turn is really up for debate - Mark Mulder will miss the first part of the year, but will be back before it's through, and then you've got Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes, who were both $$$ in the World Series, but are untested as starters over the long haul. STL still has the offense to keep pace regardless of the struggles on the mound, and they've still got Jason Isringhausen to shut them down on the other end. This division is unpredictable, but when your next best option is the Cubs, it's wise to play it safe here. The Cardinals head towards October, again.
2. Cubs
If it's almost April, that means it must be their year. And there are, as always, some reasons to believe it, and perhaps moreso this year. Let's start with Alfonso Soriano - but any time a player comes into a baseball-frenzied environment where he is THE superstar - which Soriano was not in New York - you don't really know what's going to happen for sure. But all signs point to him being helpful, moreso if he materializes in center. He'll be flanked by Jacque Jones and another new acquisition, Cliff Floyd, for a solid outfield. You'd be hard pressed to find a better first-and-third combo than a healthy Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez - except, of course, in St. Louis. And New York, but that's beside the point. Michael Barrett is solid, but the Cubs will need career benchwarmer Mark DeRosa to come up big at 2B. And then there's the pitching staff, where for the first time in four years, the weight doesn't fall on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. In fact, it's everything but - Wood is in the bullpen working middle relief, and Prior is in Triple A and on the fast track to an ESPN Classic special, because he may never get back. Carlos Zambrano is everything you want in an ace - he talks it (already guaranteeing a World Series this year), then he walks it (16-7, 3.41 last year playing for the worst team in this division). The Cubs grabbed Ted Lilly, then got Jason Marquis from the champion Cardinals, so we'll see. It's the Cubs, so it's a dice roll no matter what...if St. Louis stumbles the way they did last year in the regular season, I think Chicago can give them a real run for their money for the division. If STL plays to form, Chicago isn't as good, and will have to dig in to the Wild Card hunt. I think Lou Piniella will get them in the hunt, but October right away may be too much to ask for. But everyone in America who even knows a whiff about baseball will be pulling for them to get in, because then the playoffs instantly become more dramatic. Is this the year?
3. Astros
Houston's window for a championship has opened and closed, or so it would seem. So few people cared about the 2005 Astros-White Sox World Series - especially on the heels of Red Sox mania - that you forget that Houston was swept by losing 5-3, 7-6, 7-5 in 14 innings, and 1-0. They were right there, but it still seems so far away and so long ago. Now, with Roger Clemens still the enigma and looking more likely to face retirement or the Yankees/Red Sox than the Astros, and with Andy Pettite already in New York, and Jeff Bagwell retired...could be trouble. They've still got Roy Oswalt, who's arguably the NL's best pitcher. They've still got Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman, combined with ex-Vol Chris Burke to make the new Killer B's...but they're much less fearsome. You look at the rest of the lineup - Carlos Lee, Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus - and you think "hey, these guys aren't bad at all..." - and they're not - but if they couldn't get it done in the last 4-5 seasons, why will they now? Even with Jason Jennings and Woody Williams added to the rotation, and Brad Lidge - the most adventurous closer going now that Farnsworth is middle relief - again, why with this team instead of with more powerful, more talented teams in years past? They're not going away, they should be in the wild card chase...and I guess anyone can win this division...but I'm not betting on the Astros anymore.
4. Reds
If you like pitching, you put the Brewers here. If you like hitting, you've gotta go with the Reds. And their pitching is far from terrible at the top - Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo - it's the bullpen that's full of questions. In the lineup, you've got some names who've lost some pop in their bats - most notably Ken Griffey Jr, the seasoned veteran. Adam Dunn can still kill the ball, and guys like Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez can help this team as well. Too thin on the mound to consider the playoffs.
5. Brewers
Alright, it's time for the annual "Can you name a Milwaukee Brewer?" game. Anyone? If you take away Ben Sheets on the mound, can you name anyone in their lineup? ...I couldn't either, but SI tells me that Johnny Estrada plays for them now, as does Craig Counsell. Then the youth - Prince Fielder and Bill Hall - takes over, and the future is looking brighter in Milwaukee. But SI also tells me that Milwaukee hasn't had a winning season in 14 years. Ouch.
6. Pirates
The new home of Adam LaRoche, who'll team with Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in the lineup. The pitching staff is atrocious - the best returning starting ERA belongs to Zach Duke at 4.47. Any reason to pick them anywhere but the cellar in this division? I didn't think so.
NL WEST
1. Dodgers
Ladies and gentlemen, the best team in the National League. No, it's not the Mets or the defending champion Cardinals. It's LA. They added Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez in the outfield, added Randy Wolf and Jason Schmidt on the mound, and they play in a division that'll be much easier to win than the talent-rich NL East or the topsy-turvy NL Central. If the Dodgers don't end up with the best record in the NL, I'll be stunned. The lineup 1-5: Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez. They've also got Wilson Betemit hanging around at 3B. Then, on the mound, is this the NL's best staff? Derek Lowe leads Wolf and Schmidt. Brad Penny - 16-9, 4.33 last year - is the 4th starter. Yikes. If they get more good play out of closer Takashi Saito, you can really look out. They're thinking championship in LA. They're right.
2. Padres
The Giles Bros. will lead off, with Mike Cameron and Adrian Gonzalez behind them. The lineup drops off a bit after that, but San Diego can support them from the mound, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Clay Hensley, and new addition Greg Maddux, who all won at least 11 last year. And then there's David Wells, and you never know with him. And yeah, Trevor Hoffman will still be striking fear into hearts as the closer. These guys are good - they're not Dodger good, but they can play - and may make a run at the wild card.
3. Giants
Lots of people are writing San Fran off and putting them in the cellar, but I don't think they're that terrible. They added Barry Zito and they still have the human walk machine in Barry Bonds. Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia can still play, and the rest of their rotation isn't terrible (if somebody gets ahold of Russ Ortiz - 0-8, 8.14 last year, but he used to have good stuff). The always fun Armando Benitez will try and close it out for them again. The nation will be watching Bonds Barry Bonds as he goes for 755 and tries not to suffer injury again. I think they'll make the most of the extra spotlight and be slightly better than people think. But no playoffs.
4. Diamondbacks
A wealth of talent disguised as youth - though it could be the other way around - plus the return of Randy Johnson makes the D-Backs an interesting team. He won't have to carry the staff - that's Brandon Webb's job - and they've got bullpen issues. The lineup is a complete wild card 1-9 - lots of youth, little proven power, but we'll see. They could rise as high as 2nd in this division if it comes together, or finish in the cellar. Again, we'll see.
5. Rockies
Get Todd Helton out of there! His Hall of Fame talent continues to wilt away out in the Rockies - I was excited about those trade rumors with the Red Sox earlier, maybe that'll come up again at the All-Star break. Matt Holliday is vastly underrated, Kaz Matsui has talent and might fare better in Denver, and Garrett Atkins can hit, but the rest of the lineup - including two projected rookie starters - is lacking. And the pitching - already burdened with the thin air - leaves much to be desired among Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Rodrigo Lopez and rookie Jason Hirsh. It's the projected cellar for these guys - let's get Todd Helton on a contender!
Saturday, March 24, 2007
48 hours later and I still can't think of a good title for this one...
Early in the week, I wrote that Tennessee was in the rare place of having already accomplished a season that would be viewed as successful. Anything they did in the Sweet 16 or beyond would be icing on the cake. And furthermore, that there was no way that anything that happened against Ohio State could be more painful than what happened against North Carolina back in 2000.
I'm wrong a lot.
To be sure, this season was still remarkable, successful, and good. The Vols are still on the way up - the fact that we have such a gripe about a loss to the #1 team in the country in the Sweet 16 proves as much. And 99% of Vol Nation is still going to give this team a round of applause and the "you'll get 'em next time!" speech.
But my oh my, what could've been...
Tennessee has showed all year that they're capable, because of their style of play, hot shooting, and the x-factor in Chris Lofton, of beating anyone on any given night. That's how they ambushed Memphis, that's how they came back from 17 down to beat Texas, that's how they built huge leads against Florida and Kentucky. But as someone said on SportsTalk yesterday, against Ohio State, Tennessee showed that if they're firing on all cylinders, there might not be anyone who was capable of beating them. Tennessee wasn't just up 20 points on anybody. They were up 20 points on the #1 team in the nation.
And there's more. Greg Oden was a non-factor for the vast majority of the game. Ohio State had never been down like that before. Memphis was waiting on Saturday, victims of an 18 point beatdown from the Vols back in December. You were slowly starting to think, somewhere in the back of your mind but creeping towards the front, "We could actually make the Final Four." And it wasn't fanboy optimism - it was real.
Last year against Kentucky at Thompson-Boling, the Vols built a first half lead of something like 14 points, then folded on defense in the second half, allowing Kentucky to shoot somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-80% - which, as I discussed with a friend of mine yesterday, it's hard to shoot that well with no one guarding you - and the Vols' huge lead melted away into an eventual Kentucky victory.
This year, at home against both Kentucky and Florida, fans who were enjoying another double digit lead against Kentucky, and an inexplicable 27 point lead on Florida, once again found themselves sweating, and sweating very quickly. Florida trimmed the Vols lead from 27 to 8 in a matter of minutes. Kentucky pulled even. Both times, the Vols showed resiliancy, grit, and - playing in front of the home faithful - pulled back in front and won the game.
Ohio State trimmed the lead from 20 to 7 in the blink of an eye. There was a 19-5 run in there during which they scored on something like 11 of 12 trips down the floor. Soon after that, Ohio State tied it, then they took the lead. Not on the last play of the game, but with lots and lots of time left on the clock. What you're seeing here looks less and less like a fluke and more and more like a potential trend - big first half lead with incredible shooting, lack of defensive intensity/intelligence early in the second half combined with average shooting, lead evaporates. If I know it, Bruce knows it, and we all have faith in Bruce to fix it, right?
Credit Tennessee for not folding when Ohio State took the lead. Credit Chris Lofton for doing what Chris Lofton does - the answer-the-bell 3 he hit just seconds after Ohio State hit one to take a 82-79 lead was one of the biggest shots he's ever hit - and credit Ryan Childress for being better, both from beyond the arc and in the paint, than anyone was ever dreaming he could be.
But here's the stat that hurts me the most. In Columbus in January, the Vols shot 5 of 11 from the free throw line. In San Antonio on Thursday, the Vols shot 8 of 17. That's two games against Ohio State, and two losses by a combined three points in which the Vols shot a combined 13 of 28 - 46% - from the free throw line. In the Sweet 16 game, Tennessee shot better from three than from the free throw line. That's incredible, in a really heartbreaking sort of way.
The Vols were money down the stretch against Virginia. Watching the last few moments of that one, I commented to my friends that free throw shooting was going to cost us one...but it didn't happen last week. Free throw shooting won the game against UVA.
But against Ohio State....and it's not like we're asking for 75% from the line. If Tennesse shoots somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% instead of 46% - and junior pro teams shoot better than 46% - then they beat Ohio State in January, and they're still playing today.
Crikey.
And you're not going to get such favorable draws every time out. This is two years in a row where the bracket has broken Tennessee's way - had the Vols, as a 2 seed, beat Wichita State last year, they would've drawn 11 seed George Mason in the Sweet 16. Getting placed with Ohio State and Memphis this year was the best you could ask for. And the Vols have failed to take advantage twice now.
Should Ohio State - or Memphis or Florida, for that matter - end up winning the whole thing, you're going to wince.
Again - as Phillip Fulmer is fond of saying - as much as you hurt when we lose, and as much as you want to watch the Vols win, he feels it and lives it more. And it's exactly the same with Bruce Pearl. He feels it. He knows. He will always remember.
So we close the book on Dane Bradshaw - who cannot be replaced, only remembered - and the 2007 season. Thumbs up and well done to the Vols, yet again.
Now the bar is about to go up to a brand new level.
Bruce Pearl said he'd need two first seasons - his actual first one, and then his first one playing with all these freshmen. Now, in Year Three, the pieces are going to be in place for everything.
Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism, Duke Crews, and Josh Tabb will now be sophomores. Ramar Smith is a consistent jump shot - not a great jump shot, just a consistent one - away from being the best point guard in the SEC. You can see with the way he creates that he is and is going to be a critical factor for the Vols. Wayne Chism is one post-up move - be it a CJ Black jump hook, a drop step or something - away from being the best returning post player in the SEC, with Big Baby already out and the assumption that Noah/Horford will do the same. Duke Crews will likely learn to play power forward and join the starting lineup, but even if Pearl leaves him on the bench, suddenly you're much more comfortable with Ryan Childress in the starting lineup.
Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Jordan Howell will be seniors. So for the first time in Pearl's tenure, there's a sense of urgency - if you don't advance with this group, you'll be playing with a lesser hand in 2009. And sure, we've got a scholarship left and there's gotta be a 6'9-6'10" body out there somewhere to help with fouls and minutes in the paint. JP Prince, transferring in from Arizona, sounds like a great 6th man option.
The schedule will bring Ohio State to Knoxville and send the Vols to Memphis, and Pearl is still looking for two more big non-conference games. There is an SEC/Big East Challenge in the works, though I'm not sure if it starts in 2008 or 2009. The Vols will also do some European traveling.
So the stakes have become high instantly, and Pearl knows this and respects this. The players are a part of it and believe in it. And so, as we enter the long orange void between now and the Cal game in September, you begin to look forward to basketball season the way you're worrying about Erik Ainge's meniscus. And you can thank Bruce Pearl for that.
The Vols had Ohio State and let them get away. They will not forget it. In 1997, losing to Nebraska was the best thing that ever happened to Tennessee Football. Let's hope, ten years later, that we can look back on Thursday night and find the good in it. Either way, our basketball team is going to be in the National Championship conversation from day one next season. We've arrived to the conversation. The next step will be to earn it, stay in it, and keep advancing, keep moving forward. And the pieces are in place.
Go Vols.
I'm wrong a lot.
To be sure, this season was still remarkable, successful, and good. The Vols are still on the way up - the fact that we have such a gripe about a loss to the #1 team in the country in the Sweet 16 proves as much. And 99% of Vol Nation is still going to give this team a round of applause and the "you'll get 'em next time!" speech.
But my oh my, what could've been...
Tennessee has showed all year that they're capable, because of their style of play, hot shooting, and the x-factor in Chris Lofton, of beating anyone on any given night. That's how they ambushed Memphis, that's how they came back from 17 down to beat Texas, that's how they built huge leads against Florida and Kentucky. But as someone said on SportsTalk yesterday, against Ohio State, Tennessee showed that if they're firing on all cylinders, there might not be anyone who was capable of beating them. Tennessee wasn't just up 20 points on anybody. They were up 20 points on the #1 team in the nation.
And there's more. Greg Oden was a non-factor for the vast majority of the game. Ohio State had never been down like that before. Memphis was waiting on Saturday, victims of an 18 point beatdown from the Vols back in December. You were slowly starting to think, somewhere in the back of your mind but creeping towards the front, "We could actually make the Final Four." And it wasn't fanboy optimism - it was real.
Last year against Kentucky at Thompson-Boling, the Vols built a first half lead of something like 14 points, then folded on defense in the second half, allowing Kentucky to shoot somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-80% - which, as I discussed with a friend of mine yesterday, it's hard to shoot that well with no one guarding you - and the Vols' huge lead melted away into an eventual Kentucky victory.
This year, at home against both Kentucky and Florida, fans who were enjoying another double digit lead against Kentucky, and an inexplicable 27 point lead on Florida, once again found themselves sweating, and sweating very quickly. Florida trimmed the Vols lead from 27 to 8 in a matter of minutes. Kentucky pulled even. Both times, the Vols showed resiliancy, grit, and - playing in front of the home faithful - pulled back in front and won the game.
Ohio State trimmed the lead from 20 to 7 in the blink of an eye. There was a 19-5 run in there during which they scored on something like 11 of 12 trips down the floor. Soon after that, Ohio State tied it, then they took the lead. Not on the last play of the game, but with lots and lots of time left on the clock. What you're seeing here looks less and less like a fluke and more and more like a potential trend - big first half lead with incredible shooting, lack of defensive intensity/intelligence early in the second half combined with average shooting, lead evaporates. If I know it, Bruce knows it, and we all have faith in Bruce to fix it, right?
Credit Tennessee for not folding when Ohio State took the lead. Credit Chris Lofton for doing what Chris Lofton does - the answer-the-bell 3 he hit just seconds after Ohio State hit one to take a 82-79 lead was one of the biggest shots he's ever hit - and credit Ryan Childress for being better, both from beyond the arc and in the paint, than anyone was ever dreaming he could be.
But here's the stat that hurts me the most. In Columbus in January, the Vols shot 5 of 11 from the free throw line. In San Antonio on Thursday, the Vols shot 8 of 17. That's two games against Ohio State, and two losses by a combined three points in which the Vols shot a combined 13 of 28 - 46% - from the free throw line. In the Sweet 16 game, Tennessee shot better from three than from the free throw line. That's incredible, in a really heartbreaking sort of way.
The Vols were money down the stretch against Virginia. Watching the last few moments of that one, I commented to my friends that free throw shooting was going to cost us one...but it didn't happen last week. Free throw shooting won the game against UVA.
But against Ohio State....and it's not like we're asking for 75% from the line. If Tennesse shoots somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% instead of 46% - and junior pro teams shoot better than 46% - then they beat Ohio State in January, and they're still playing today.
Crikey.
And you're not going to get such favorable draws every time out. This is two years in a row where the bracket has broken Tennessee's way - had the Vols, as a 2 seed, beat Wichita State last year, they would've drawn 11 seed George Mason in the Sweet 16. Getting placed with Ohio State and Memphis this year was the best you could ask for. And the Vols have failed to take advantage twice now.
Should Ohio State - or Memphis or Florida, for that matter - end up winning the whole thing, you're going to wince.
Again - as Phillip Fulmer is fond of saying - as much as you hurt when we lose, and as much as you want to watch the Vols win, he feels it and lives it more. And it's exactly the same with Bruce Pearl. He feels it. He knows. He will always remember.
So we close the book on Dane Bradshaw - who cannot be replaced, only remembered - and the 2007 season. Thumbs up and well done to the Vols, yet again.
Now the bar is about to go up to a brand new level.
Bruce Pearl said he'd need two first seasons - his actual first one, and then his first one playing with all these freshmen. Now, in Year Three, the pieces are going to be in place for everything.
Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism, Duke Crews, and Josh Tabb will now be sophomores. Ramar Smith is a consistent jump shot - not a great jump shot, just a consistent one - away from being the best point guard in the SEC. You can see with the way he creates that he is and is going to be a critical factor for the Vols. Wayne Chism is one post-up move - be it a CJ Black jump hook, a drop step or something - away from being the best returning post player in the SEC, with Big Baby already out and the assumption that Noah/Horford will do the same. Duke Crews will likely learn to play power forward and join the starting lineup, but even if Pearl leaves him on the bench, suddenly you're much more comfortable with Ryan Childress in the starting lineup.
Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Jordan Howell will be seniors. So for the first time in Pearl's tenure, there's a sense of urgency - if you don't advance with this group, you'll be playing with a lesser hand in 2009. And sure, we've got a scholarship left and there's gotta be a 6'9-6'10" body out there somewhere to help with fouls and minutes in the paint. JP Prince, transferring in from Arizona, sounds like a great 6th man option.
The schedule will bring Ohio State to Knoxville and send the Vols to Memphis, and Pearl is still looking for two more big non-conference games. There is an SEC/Big East Challenge in the works, though I'm not sure if it starts in 2008 or 2009. The Vols will also do some European traveling.
So the stakes have become high instantly, and Pearl knows this and respects this. The players are a part of it and believe in it. And so, as we enter the long orange void between now and the Cal game in September, you begin to look forward to basketball season the way you're worrying about Erik Ainge's meniscus. And you can thank Bruce Pearl for that.
The Vols had Ohio State and let them get away. They will not forget it. In 1997, losing to Nebraska was the best thing that ever happened to Tennessee Football. Let's hope, ten years later, that we can look back on Thursday night and find the good in it. Either way, our basketball team is going to be in the National Championship conversation from day one next season. We've arrived to the conversation. The next step will be to earn it, stay in it, and keep advancing, keep moving forward. And the pieces are in place.
Go Vols.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
I don't know what to make of this...
While I sit here listening to Jim Rome praising Steve Alford for bailing out at Iowa to move on to New Mexico...
Tubby Smith is leaving Kentucky for Minnesota. Read that again and be assured that it's not a typo.
What's your first reaction to this? Did he quit before he got fired (something Gene Wojciechowski called for back on March 16 in a great piece on the whole Tubby/UK situation) or did he just get tired of keeping his head above the big blue sea?
Tubby came in from Georgia - when the "let's hire a black head coach!" movement was in full throttle mode, and when Rick Pitino was on his way to screwing up Boston. Pitino rode out of Lexington on a horse that's always been a notch higher than the one Tubby's been up on down with for the last ten years.
Tubby joins the small fraternity of coaches who've won a National Championship (1998, and all the Kentucky fans yell "with Pitino's players!" in unison) and have their tenure at the same school end with something other than retirement or a move to the NBA/NFL. Now that I've typed that I'm sitting here trying to think of who else is in that fraternity...if you take away a coach leaving under the pressure of NCAA allegations (Jerry Tarkanian, Jim Harrick), you're left with only Nolan Richardson in the last two decades in college basketball. And no coach with a ring has made such a sub-lateral move, ever.
Since the 98 National Championship, the Cats haven't been back to the Final Four. Tubby Smith does have five SEC Championship rings. Tubby Smith has also led Kentucky to five SEC Tournament titles. However, since 2004, when the Cats ran the table in the SEC and were a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, things haven't been so merry in my old Kentucky home.
Part of it is league parity, specifically the rise of Florida (and to a lesser degree, Alabama, LSU, and now Tennessee). Part of it is recruiting, or so they'd have you believe up there, which is spurred on even more by Chris Lofton's success while guys like Jodie Meeks and Ramel Bradley don't pan out as well. The Cats were in the Elite Eight back in 2005, but have gone home in the second round as an eight seed in the two seasons since.
Things like 20 wins and the NCAA Tournament go over in Lexington the way that 10 wins and a January 1 bowl go over in Knoxville - good for a while, but when that becomes the rule instead of the exception, the natives are restless. Tennessee fans expect to be in the mix for the National Championship every year in football, and it's the same in Lexington with basketball. If you're not in the Final Four, you had a bad year.
Maybe AD Mitch Barnhart was going to ask him to get rid of assistants, and now he'll take all of them north to Minnesota. Maybe he just got tired - though that doens't seem to be the case alone - or maybe he was "chased off", whatever that means. Regardless, Tubby's departure shows that nothing is ever enough in the SEC. And as someone on Rome is Burning said earlier, UK may get someone who does it as well as Tubby, but they won't get someone who does it better.
Top five fun replacements for Tubby Smith...
5. Billy Donovan
As my dad and one of his Florida fan co-workers said ealier today upon hearing this story, the first phone call - and the first no - will hail from Gainesville.
4. "That black guy"
Is this how they got Tubby in the first place? If so, it worked out well. You heard all about this when Mike Anderson (UAB) was rumored to come to Knoxville, or years ago with Wade Houston. But there will be one african-american candidate, bank on it.
3. "That mid-major guy"
Tubby Smith - while quite animated during the game - doesn't have a jump out at you personality, which the armchair fans think is key in recruiting. So take any mid-major coach with an upbeat personality, and there will be some in UK land who will go after him. Case in point:
2. Bruce Pearl
This site gets some traffic from my friend and fellow pastor/sports blogger Jeff Wright's Exalt Christ blog, so let me offer this: if you're needing a sermon analogy this Palm Sunday, remember how the same people who are shouting "Hosanna!" on Sunday are yelling "Crucify!" on Friday? I'm just saying...
1. Rick Pitino
Anything that allows me to use the phrase "the circle is now complete" - and gives me a chance to get a victory over Pitino, my most hated sports figure, in any way, I'm in favor of. Let's get Pitino on board so Bruce Pearl can stay away from those job offers, and then can slather some of that orange paint on him while the Vols are beating UK.
Is this a good day or a bad day for Kentucky Basketball? Only time will tell, but since it's still March and they're not playing, I'm leaning towards the clouds and the rain. But maybe the sun will come out...they are Kentucky, after all.
Tubby Smith is leaving Kentucky for Minnesota. Read that again and be assured that it's not a typo.
What's your first reaction to this? Did he quit before he got fired (something Gene Wojciechowski called for back on March 16 in a great piece on the whole Tubby/UK situation) or did he just get tired of keeping his head above the big blue sea?
Tubby came in from Georgia - when the "let's hire a black head coach!" movement was in full throttle mode, and when Rick Pitino was on his way to screwing up Boston. Pitino rode out of Lexington on a horse that's always been a notch higher than the one Tubby's been up on down with for the last ten years.
Tubby joins the small fraternity of coaches who've won a National Championship (1998, and all the Kentucky fans yell "with Pitino's players!" in unison) and have their tenure at the same school end with something other than retirement or a move to the NBA/NFL. Now that I've typed that I'm sitting here trying to think of who else is in that fraternity...if you take away a coach leaving under the pressure of NCAA allegations (Jerry Tarkanian, Jim Harrick), you're left with only Nolan Richardson in the last two decades in college basketball. And no coach with a ring has made such a sub-lateral move, ever.
Since the 98 National Championship, the Cats haven't been back to the Final Four. Tubby Smith does have five SEC Championship rings. Tubby Smith has also led Kentucky to five SEC Tournament titles. However, since 2004, when the Cats ran the table in the SEC and were a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, things haven't been so merry in my old Kentucky home.
Part of it is league parity, specifically the rise of Florida (and to a lesser degree, Alabama, LSU, and now Tennessee). Part of it is recruiting, or so they'd have you believe up there, which is spurred on even more by Chris Lofton's success while guys like Jodie Meeks and Ramel Bradley don't pan out as well. The Cats were in the Elite Eight back in 2005, but have gone home in the second round as an eight seed in the two seasons since.
Things like 20 wins and the NCAA Tournament go over in Lexington the way that 10 wins and a January 1 bowl go over in Knoxville - good for a while, but when that becomes the rule instead of the exception, the natives are restless. Tennessee fans expect to be in the mix for the National Championship every year in football, and it's the same in Lexington with basketball. If you're not in the Final Four, you had a bad year.
Maybe AD Mitch Barnhart was going to ask him to get rid of assistants, and now he'll take all of them north to Minnesota. Maybe he just got tired - though that doens't seem to be the case alone - or maybe he was "chased off", whatever that means. Regardless, Tubby's departure shows that nothing is ever enough in the SEC. And as someone on Rome is Burning said earlier, UK may get someone who does it as well as Tubby, but they won't get someone who does it better.
Top five fun replacements for Tubby Smith...
5. Billy Donovan
As my dad and one of his Florida fan co-workers said ealier today upon hearing this story, the first phone call - and the first no - will hail from Gainesville.
4. "That black guy"
Is this how they got Tubby in the first place? If so, it worked out well. You heard all about this when Mike Anderson (UAB) was rumored to come to Knoxville, or years ago with Wade Houston. But there will be one african-american candidate, bank on it.
3. "That mid-major guy"
Tubby Smith - while quite animated during the game - doesn't have a jump out at you personality, which the armchair fans think is key in recruiting. So take any mid-major coach with an upbeat personality, and there will be some in UK land who will go after him. Case in point:
2. Bruce Pearl
This site gets some traffic from my friend and fellow pastor/sports blogger Jeff Wright's Exalt Christ blog, so let me offer this: if you're needing a sermon analogy this Palm Sunday, remember how the same people who are shouting "Hosanna!" on Sunday are yelling "Crucify!" on Friday? I'm just saying...
1. Rick Pitino
Anything that allows me to use the phrase "the circle is now complete" - and gives me a chance to get a victory over Pitino, my most hated sports figure, in any way, I'm in favor of. Let's get Pitino on board so Bruce Pearl can stay away from those job offers, and then can slather some of that orange paint on him while the Vols are beating UK.
Is this a good day or a bad day for Kentucky Basketball? Only time will tell, but since it's still March and they're not playing, I'm leaning towards the clouds and the rain. But maybe the sun will come out...they are Kentucky, after all.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The Happy Place
It's weird.
We've reached a threshold in men's basketball here in Knoxville. This is a rare place in any sport, at any time. The Vols have reached a place where the 2006-2007 basketball season is already a success. If the 5 seed Vols lose to the 1 seed Buckeyes on Thursday night, as the experts are expecting, they won't have to apologize for it. They'll have been only the second Tennessee team ever to reach the Sweet 16. And everybody knows that the Vols will be a year older and just as, if not more talented next year. Only Dane Bradshaw leaves.
But the point is, anything that happens from here will be bonus. The football and women's basketball programs have reached a level of prestige where this scenario is not possible. If this trend continues under Bruce Pearl, the men's basketball team will soon follow suit - they'll stop being a nice story and a pleasant surprise, and we'll start expecting SEC Championships and Final Fours, and respond in kind when they don't happen. It comes with the territory.
But this is a story of journey, not just destination. And this journey, from first round exits in the NIT to a Sweet 16 date, has been unique. It's been surreal. And it's been fun.
The journey went through Columbus last weekend, and a game against ACC Champion Virginia that Vol teams of old simply wouldn't have won. Chris Lofton does not play his best game at all from the field, your best post player picks up fouls three and four in a heartbeat to open the second half, and you've got a world of freshmen who haven't been here before. Then, after the team makes yet another incredible run to take the lead, the Vols win the game at the place they've struggled the most all year, hitting eight straight free throws to close the game. So instead of going home and looking towards next year, we play on.
And now the journey goes to San Antonio, where the Vols will be underdogs the rest of the way home. It starts with a one seed, but not one that you haven't seen and stood toe to toe with before. We'll not discuss it going any further than that until it does. But Tennessee has already taken this season and this program to a new place. This season gets the thumbs up. Should the Vols upset Ohio State, it's the icing on the cake.
And that's no reason to start settling now.
The Vols have been here once before, in 2000, with better players but not a better team. One of the differences between this Sweet 16 and that one seven years ago is the bracket. That year, the Vols were a 4 seed, but arrived in Austin for the Sweet 16 having watched Stanford, Cincinnati, and Ohio State - seeded 1, 2, and 3 in the South Region - all lose in the second round. Therefore, the Vols were the highest seed remaining, and had just knocked off defending champion UConn in the second round. The bracket included 6 seed Miami, 7 seed Tulsa, and 8 seed North Carolina. It looked like Tennessee could punch their ticket to the Final Four.
Then Tennessee built a 9 point second half lead on North Carolina...which made it all the more painful when they lost it. By the time the horn sounded and the Vols had fallen 74-69, it didn't feel like a successful season, it felt like a huge missed opportunity.
Even last year, the magical first year under Pearl, ended with a bad aftertaste, and again largely due to the bracket. As a 2 seed, Tennessee had a clear path to the Sweet 16, but the Vols struggled with Winthrop before falling to Wichita State. Had the Vols won, they would've drawn George Mason in the Sweet 16, and playing as a 2 seed they had good location. But alas, it was not to be.
But this year, the locations have been friendly (barring an Elite Eight game with Texas A&M in San Antonio) and so have the seeds - as I said before the tournament started, I think the Vols would rather be matched with Ohio State and Memphis than any other 1 and 2 seeds.
Here's an interesting question/observation:
Is this the biggest game in the history of Tennessee Basketball?
I'll let you be the judge of that, but playing a #1 seed that you know you can run with, with a chance to become the first team in Tennessee history to reach the Elite Eight? I think it's hard to argue with.
Bruce Pearl has already taken the Vols to new heights, heights unimagined, and especially unimagined possible in just two years. We've talked here about the strength of the university's athletic department as a whole, and how the basketball team has been the final piece. Pearl talked about the Sweet 16 being a necessary step to give some proof behind the claim that UT is a Top 20 program nationally. He's done that. Tennessee is here, and appears to be here to stay under Pearl.
No matter what happens Thursday night, this has been another great year for Tennessee Basketball. The season is a success.
But the true sign of arrival is that Tennessee has every shot to win this game, not just be happy to be playing in it. Before we remember fondly this season and Dane Bradshaw, and before we look ahead to the immense talent returning in 07-08...let's know that the Vols can stand and deliver with Ohio State on Thursday night. And even if this is the icing on the cake, the Vols can make it that much sweeter if they keep winning.
Enjoy this.
We've reached a threshold in men's basketball here in Knoxville. This is a rare place in any sport, at any time. The Vols have reached a place where the 2006-2007 basketball season is already a success. If the 5 seed Vols lose to the 1 seed Buckeyes on Thursday night, as the experts are expecting, they won't have to apologize for it. They'll have been only the second Tennessee team ever to reach the Sweet 16. And everybody knows that the Vols will be a year older and just as, if not more talented next year. Only Dane Bradshaw leaves.
But the point is, anything that happens from here will be bonus. The football and women's basketball programs have reached a level of prestige where this scenario is not possible. If this trend continues under Bruce Pearl, the men's basketball team will soon follow suit - they'll stop being a nice story and a pleasant surprise, and we'll start expecting SEC Championships and Final Fours, and respond in kind when they don't happen. It comes with the territory.
But this is a story of journey, not just destination. And this journey, from first round exits in the NIT to a Sweet 16 date, has been unique. It's been surreal. And it's been fun.
The journey went through Columbus last weekend, and a game against ACC Champion Virginia that Vol teams of old simply wouldn't have won. Chris Lofton does not play his best game at all from the field, your best post player picks up fouls three and four in a heartbeat to open the second half, and you've got a world of freshmen who haven't been here before. Then, after the team makes yet another incredible run to take the lead, the Vols win the game at the place they've struggled the most all year, hitting eight straight free throws to close the game. So instead of going home and looking towards next year, we play on.
And now the journey goes to San Antonio, where the Vols will be underdogs the rest of the way home. It starts with a one seed, but not one that you haven't seen and stood toe to toe with before. We'll not discuss it going any further than that until it does. But Tennessee has already taken this season and this program to a new place. This season gets the thumbs up. Should the Vols upset Ohio State, it's the icing on the cake.
And that's no reason to start settling now.
The Vols have been here once before, in 2000, with better players but not a better team. One of the differences between this Sweet 16 and that one seven years ago is the bracket. That year, the Vols were a 4 seed, but arrived in Austin for the Sweet 16 having watched Stanford, Cincinnati, and Ohio State - seeded 1, 2, and 3 in the South Region - all lose in the second round. Therefore, the Vols were the highest seed remaining, and had just knocked off defending champion UConn in the second round. The bracket included 6 seed Miami, 7 seed Tulsa, and 8 seed North Carolina. It looked like Tennessee could punch their ticket to the Final Four.
Then Tennessee built a 9 point second half lead on North Carolina...which made it all the more painful when they lost it. By the time the horn sounded and the Vols had fallen 74-69, it didn't feel like a successful season, it felt like a huge missed opportunity.
Even last year, the magical first year under Pearl, ended with a bad aftertaste, and again largely due to the bracket. As a 2 seed, Tennessee had a clear path to the Sweet 16, but the Vols struggled with Winthrop before falling to Wichita State. Had the Vols won, they would've drawn George Mason in the Sweet 16, and playing as a 2 seed they had good location. But alas, it was not to be.
But this year, the locations have been friendly (barring an Elite Eight game with Texas A&M in San Antonio) and so have the seeds - as I said before the tournament started, I think the Vols would rather be matched with Ohio State and Memphis than any other 1 and 2 seeds.
Here's an interesting question/observation:
Is this the biggest game in the history of Tennessee Basketball?
I'll let you be the judge of that, but playing a #1 seed that you know you can run with, with a chance to become the first team in Tennessee history to reach the Elite Eight? I think it's hard to argue with.
Bruce Pearl has already taken the Vols to new heights, heights unimagined, and especially unimagined possible in just two years. We've talked here about the strength of the university's athletic department as a whole, and how the basketball team has been the final piece. Pearl talked about the Sweet 16 being a necessary step to give some proof behind the claim that UT is a Top 20 program nationally. He's done that. Tennessee is here, and appears to be here to stay under Pearl.
No matter what happens Thursday night, this has been another great year for Tennessee Basketball. The season is a success.
But the true sign of arrival is that Tennessee has every shot to win this game, not just be happy to be playing in it. Before we remember fondly this season and Dane Bradshaw, and before we look ahead to the immense talent returning in 07-08...let's know that the Vols can stand and deliver with Ohio State on Thursday night. And even if this is the icing on the cake, the Vols can make it that much sweeter if they keep winning.
Enjoy this.
Friday, March 16, 2007
NCAA Tournament - Day Two Thoughts
2:18 PM
- If I hear one more time some announcer or expert say some form of "Tennessee really wilted at the end of the season" or "Tennessee really limped into the tournament", I'm going to call CBS and complain. Winning eight of nine games before losing in the first round of the SEC Tournament isn't wilting or limping. One bad night in Atlanta doesn't disgrace the fact that the Vols were the hottest team in the SEC down the stretch. But all of those questions can be answered today.
- UVA, UVA, U-V-A! You had to feel for the Albany kids when Virginia built a double digit lead in a matter of minutes, especially when you hear that Albany fans bought 250 tickets from Long Beach State to make the drive to Columbus. Should the Vols win later today, they'll face a Virginia team that exorcised all the demons from their last two games in the 84-57 rout of Albany.
- Memphis - currently up 14 with 10 to play - went on a streetball run just when the CBS cameras tuned into their game late in the first half with Tiger High clinging to only a five point lead, complete with a sick alley-oop. Untested or no, the kids from Memphis can play.
3:25 PM
- Georgia Tech makes it loss #3 for me - UNLV was gritty, surrendering big leads twice, surviving a very physical game, and still getting it done - especially on the offensive glass - to send the Jackets home. That's two of my Sweet 16 down.
- With under 4:00 to play in Tennessee's game - where the Vols started 6 of 6 from 3 and have now missed 5 straight - we can seriously think about both teams scoring at least 90.
- Did I see that TAMUCC was up 10-0 on Wisconsin?
3:35 PM
- 57-45 Vols at halftime. At this pace, the final score would be 114-90. I'm just saying.
- TAMUCC is now up 17-4 with 11:52 to play in the first half. Yikes. Maybe I can figure out what's going on during halftime...
4:48 PM
- That's two games for SEC teams, and two performances that'll be impossible to top. Let's just let the numbers do the talking:
Tennessee 121 - Long Beach State 86
Chris Lofton: 9 of 14, 4 of 8 threes, 25 points
JaJuan Smith: 8 of 12, 4 of 6 threes, 24 points
Ramar Smith: 8 of 13, 2 of 4 threes, 22 points
Duke Crews: 12 points, 11 rebounds
Dane Bradshaw: 8 points, 11 assists
Tennessee Team Shooting: 58% from the field, 14 of 27 (52%) from the arc
Thumbs up. Virginia on Sunday (12:00 PM EST) will be a much different animal.
- TAMUCC still up 7 with 11:30 to play...
6:53 PM
- Wisconsin wakes up and advances, while Nevada gets a big OT win over Creighton. In OT, it's funny to hear Verne Lundquist and Bill Rafferty "respectfully" disagree over a referee's call. "This is why we work so well together." - Lundquist. Football season's right around the corner, Verne!
- Oregon survives to run my brackets to 21-3, with 14 Sweet 16 teams still standing and all of my Elite Eight. No time to get excited, as the field will likely catch up with me tonight. Other than the obvious picks of Florida, Kansas, and Texas, I've got Kentucky and Arizona winning close 8/9 games, Virginia Tech representing the valley and winning, and my two biggest upset picks of the first round - Arkansas over Southern Cal, Holy Cross over Southern Illinois. Losses by Kentucky and Virginia Tech would really hurt my bracket. But we press on!
- If I hear one more time some announcer or expert say some form of "Tennessee really wilted at the end of the season" or "Tennessee really limped into the tournament", I'm going to call CBS and complain. Winning eight of nine games before losing in the first round of the SEC Tournament isn't wilting or limping. One bad night in Atlanta doesn't disgrace the fact that the Vols were the hottest team in the SEC down the stretch. But all of those questions can be answered today.
- UVA, UVA, U-V-A! You had to feel for the Albany kids when Virginia built a double digit lead in a matter of minutes, especially when you hear that Albany fans bought 250 tickets from Long Beach State to make the drive to Columbus. Should the Vols win later today, they'll face a Virginia team that exorcised all the demons from their last two games in the 84-57 rout of Albany.
- Memphis - currently up 14 with 10 to play - went on a streetball run just when the CBS cameras tuned into their game late in the first half with Tiger High clinging to only a five point lead, complete with a sick alley-oop. Untested or no, the kids from Memphis can play.
3:25 PM
- Georgia Tech makes it loss #3 for me - UNLV was gritty, surrendering big leads twice, surviving a very physical game, and still getting it done - especially on the offensive glass - to send the Jackets home. That's two of my Sweet 16 down.
- With under 4:00 to play in Tennessee's game - where the Vols started 6 of 6 from 3 and have now missed 5 straight - we can seriously think about both teams scoring at least 90.
- Did I see that TAMUCC was up 10-0 on Wisconsin?
3:35 PM
- 57-45 Vols at halftime. At this pace, the final score would be 114-90. I'm just saying.
- TAMUCC is now up 17-4 with 11:52 to play in the first half. Yikes. Maybe I can figure out what's going on during halftime...
4:48 PM
- That's two games for SEC teams, and two performances that'll be impossible to top. Let's just let the numbers do the talking:
Tennessee 121 - Long Beach State 86
Chris Lofton: 9 of 14, 4 of 8 threes, 25 points
JaJuan Smith: 8 of 12, 4 of 6 threes, 24 points
Ramar Smith: 8 of 13, 2 of 4 threes, 22 points
Duke Crews: 12 points, 11 rebounds
Dane Bradshaw: 8 points, 11 assists
Tennessee Team Shooting: 58% from the field, 14 of 27 (52%) from the arc
Thumbs up. Virginia on Sunday (12:00 PM EST) will be a much different animal.
- TAMUCC still up 7 with 11:30 to play...
6:53 PM
- Wisconsin wakes up and advances, while Nevada gets a big OT win over Creighton. In OT, it's funny to hear Verne Lundquist and Bill Rafferty "respectfully" disagree over a referee's call. "This is why we work so well together." - Lundquist. Football season's right around the corner, Verne!
- Oregon survives to run my brackets to 21-3, with 14 Sweet 16 teams still standing and all of my Elite Eight. No time to get excited, as the field will likely catch up with me tonight. Other than the obvious picks of Florida, Kansas, and Texas, I've got Kentucky and Arizona winning close 8/9 games, Virginia Tech representing the valley and winning, and my two biggest upset picks of the first round - Arkansas over Southern Cal, Holy Cross over Southern Illinois. Losses by Kentucky and Virginia Tech would really hurt my bracket. But we press on!
NCAA Tournament - Day One Thoughts
Well, we're going to be 14-2 after the first day, with a rough showing out West in the evening games after an 11-0 start. Nothing to really bust the bracket - I had Duke in the Sweet 16, and had Gonzaga beating Indiana but going out in the second round. But most of my crazy stuff will come tomorrow - the only correct upset picks in my bracket today were 9 seeds.
Random thoughts on the first 24 hours...
- You should try and find a clip of Bobby Knight and Bob Ryan's exchange from yesterday's press conference regarding the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the first time I've ever seen Knight admit that a reporter got the best of him. In other news, the all-time wins leader goes home early, again. Knight's teams have become an automatic do not pick in this millenium.
- Spankings: Louisville - up 28 when I stopped paying attention - over Stanford, and Vanderbilt - who I think hit 10 3s in the first half, and buried 3s on four or five consecutive trips down the floor - over George Washington. Both the Cardinals and the Dores were popular upset victims in your office pool, but both proved they're more than capable of beating anyone in this thing on any given night. Bad news for Vanderbilt: they wasted their best shooting night in the first round, because they'll never play that well again.
- Similar story for Butler, who went round and round with Old Dominion before hitting a 15-0 run in the second half on five three pointers. You could watch the momentum build on one bench, and watch the hearts break on the other.
- Kevin Harlan might be my favorite basketball play by play man. Last year, in one of Tennessee's tournament games, when Stanley Asumnu got a run out, he said "Buckle up for Asumnu" at the perfect moment right before he threw it down. Simple, but efficient. Tonight, it was "Is this the dagger..." when VCU's game-winning shot was in the air, followed by something I love about sports broadcasting that they don't do much anymore - total silence after the big play, where all you hear is the crowd.
- Speaking of Duke-VCU, the point guard for the Commonwealth was the leanest looking player I've ever seen - I feel like I could beat the crap out of that guy, and yet he put his team on his shoulders and carried them to victory, hitting the game winner with less than :02 to play. I really think Duke underestimated him for the same reason. CBS said 4 players left the game with blood, and it might've been more.
- Best game you didn't care about: Xavier over BYU. Something like 10 ties and 6 lead changes, and BYU had two great looks at it on their last trip down the floor. That'll silence the talk about why they didn't deserve to be in the field.
- Sweating it out Friday in Will's bracket: Arizona, Winthrop, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Holy Cross, Nevada, Virginia, and the Vols. Tomorrow's going to be much more painful.
Random thoughts on the first 24 hours...
- You should try and find a clip of Bobby Knight and Bob Ryan's exchange from yesterday's press conference regarding the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the first time I've ever seen Knight admit that a reporter got the best of him. In other news, the all-time wins leader goes home early, again. Knight's teams have become an automatic do not pick in this millenium.
- Spankings: Louisville - up 28 when I stopped paying attention - over Stanford, and Vanderbilt - who I think hit 10 3s in the first half, and buried 3s on four or five consecutive trips down the floor - over George Washington. Both the Cardinals and the Dores were popular upset victims in your office pool, but both proved they're more than capable of beating anyone in this thing on any given night. Bad news for Vanderbilt: they wasted their best shooting night in the first round, because they'll never play that well again.
- Similar story for Butler, who went round and round with Old Dominion before hitting a 15-0 run in the second half on five three pointers. You could watch the momentum build on one bench, and watch the hearts break on the other.
- Kevin Harlan might be my favorite basketball play by play man. Last year, in one of Tennessee's tournament games, when Stanley Asumnu got a run out, he said "Buckle up for Asumnu" at the perfect moment right before he threw it down. Simple, but efficient. Tonight, it was "Is this the dagger..." when VCU's game-winning shot was in the air, followed by something I love about sports broadcasting that they don't do much anymore - total silence after the big play, where all you hear is the crowd.
- Speaking of Duke-VCU, the point guard for the Commonwealth was the leanest looking player I've ever seen - I feel like I could beat the crap out of that guy, and yet he put his team on his shoulders and carried them to victory, hitting the game winner with less than :02 to play. I really think Duke underestimated him for the same reason. CBS said 4 players left the game with blood, and it might've been more.
- Best game you didn't care about: Xavier over BYU. Something like 10 ties and 6 lead changes, and BYU had two great looks at it on their last trip down the floor. That'll silence the talk about why they didn't deserve to be in the field.
- Sweating it out Friday in Will's bracket: Arizona, Winthrop, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Holy Cross, Nevada, Virginia, and the Vols. Tomorrow's going to be much more painful.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Opening Weekend Picks
Outside of a Fall Saturday, postseason college basketball is my favorite time of year on the sports calendar. One of the beautiful things about my job, being that I work all day on Sundays, is that it allows me to take a day off during the week each week. And while tomorrow I'll still have to find a way to carve out some time for the Vols around 2:45, today I'm getting familiar with my couch and my television.
As stated, I like to go on instinct in picking the brackets on the first run. Last year my instinct was much smarter than this year. In 2006, I picked very few upsets deep into the bracket and had Florida in the title game, which was enough to win my pool. This year, upsets run everywhere. I'm also aware of an SEC/east coast bias - I really haven't seen much of any Pac-10 teams and some others thrown in here and there, so in potential matchups like Vanderbilt vs. Washington State, I'm sitting here thinking "Man, Vanderbilt's got this guy, and this guy, and this guy..." and the reality is, Washington State has those guys too, I just don't know about them. But I pick Vanderbilt anyway. It's not a perfect bracket...I hope it's a good one.
Here are my picks for the next four days, culminating in these 16 teams advancing to next week:
MIDWEST
1 Florida
If Arizona gets their head on straight and gets past Purdue, they've got the talent to give Florida more than a run for their money and would be one of the most interesting second round matchups. Even though Florida didn't run into any of the SEC's best teams in Atlanta, their tournament run still makes one think that they're just fine at tourney time.
5 Butler
Everybody likes ODU in the 5-12 upset, but I remember vividly what Butler did in the Preseason NIT, and even though they've spent the season in the Top 25 and have a high seed for a mid-major, everyone picking ODU is going to put them back in that "nobody respects us" frame of mind that cinderella needs in March. And then there's Maryland, who just doesn't overwhelm me in any way. Butler is at their best playing the best teams, and I think they'll rise to the occassion against Maryland and get to the Sweet 16.
11 Winthrop
Part of this is remembering what they almost did to the Vols last year, and part of this is having seen them play more this year. The other side of the coin here is that Winthrop has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Notre Dame is hot right now and probably a little upset that everyone has labeled Winthrop the new George Mason, and Oregon is also in this bracket fresh off their Pac-10 Tournament title. But what's March without a little magic? A few years ago Gonzaga had never won an NCAA Tournament game, and then won three straight to make it to the Elite Eight. Do not be surprised if Winthrop repeats that feat this year. Or, Notre Dame could knock them off and keep them winless. I like the Eagles.
10 Georgia Tech
With Brian Butch, Wisconsin is easily an Elite Eight team. Without him, I'm just not sure about them at all. GT will have a very tough opening date with UNLV, but if they survive that one, you'll get an offense/defense matchup with the Jackets and the Badgers in the second round. Again, without Butch, I like the Yellow Jackets to make this the official upset region of the tournament.
WEST
8 Kentucky
UPSET SPECIAL! First of all, Kentucky simply does not lose in the first round, period, end of story. So without even looking at the matchup real close, I'm taking UK over Villanova. Then you've got Kentucky and Kansas in Chicago. Kansas has been bounced in the first round in each of the last two years. As a 1 seed in 2007, they won't lose to Niagra. But in the second round, against a Kentucky team that will pack the house and is feeling very disrespected, if the Cats get it going early, Kansas will start sweating. Kentucky is always a good pick in the Dance, no matter their seed. I don't think UK will win the whole thing or anything like that - but I'm forsaking logic and rolling the dice with Tubby and the Cats.
5 Virginia Tech
Other than SEC teams, I've seen Virginia Tech more than anybody this year because I live here in southwestern Virginia. And the Hokies have got three guys - Deron Washington, Xavian Dowdell, and Jamon Gordon - who are real deal ballplayers. The second half of the VT-BC game in Blacksburg was one of the worst beatdowns I've ever seen on a good team (BC is a 7 seed). Now, the other side here is that VT showed they were also capable of getting blown out by the likes of NC State, and the Hokies haven't been in the dance since 1996, which can be a real positive or a real negative. The opening game with Illinois will be testy, but VT is clearly the better team. The SIU-Holy Cross matchup on the other side of the bracket could easily produce an upset as well, but I really think VT is the most talented of those four teams, and the Hokies will advance to the Sweet 16.
6 Duke
Same as Kentucky, you don't disrespect Duke. Playing with less pressure than they've had this decade, and at full strength again after Gerald Henderson's suspension, if they can get past a dangerous opening game with VCU - and you have to think they will, because they're Duke, right? - they would probably see Pitt in the second round. And again, as stated with Kentucky, I think both of these teams will be very dangerous in this tournament because they're playing free of the burden of expectation as a high seed, and feeling disrespected at the same time. Both advance to the Sweet 16.
2 UCLA
See, I'm not totally crazy. UCLA has the easiest run to the Final Four because they won't have to leave California. These guys were the smart pick to win the whole thing two weeks ago, but now that they've lost two straight people are less sure. But being that they just played for the title a year ago, these guys know what they're doing and how to get there. They know how to beat Gonzaga, who knows how to beat Indiana. Bruins to the Sweet 16, and it may not stop until they bring home the crystal ball...
EAST
1 North Carolina
The Marquette-Michigan State winner will be a challenge, but Carolina is another hot team on a roll, having just won the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels' youth will be questioned throughout the tournament, but 30 games into a season you're really not as young as you sound. UNC rolls to the Sweet 16.
4 Texas
A potential UNC-Texas Sweet 16 game would be a ratings bonanza. What's important to remember is that Kevin Durant doesn't do it alone - DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams can really play - and I just can't see anyone of the four in that bracket beating them, or even playing them close.
6 Vanderbilt
A loaded upperclassman team with a coach with tournament experience, matched up with Washington State, who lacks experience. Vandy will, of course, have to get past George Washington first. But the Dores played really well in big games this year, despite getting run by Arkansas twice in their last two games. Derrick Byars and Shan Foster will put this team on their backs and carry them to the Sweet 16.
2 Georgetown
The Hoyas might be playing better right now than anyone. They've got the opposite formula of what usually wins in March - great post players, shaky guard play - but you never know. At the very least, Georgetown should have little problem riding to the Sweet 16.
SOUTH
1 Ohio State
Rolling into March playing really well, but also a young team with a world of expectations. Greg Oden has been making excuses for himself and sounds like he's going to stay in school, but confidence and swagger are necessary in March - does Ohio State have what it takes if they get behind to come back and beat a good team? That being said, I don't think OSU will have any problem making it this far.
5 Tennessee
The Long Beach State game should be entertaining - they start five seniors, which is always a red flag, but they also don't start anyone over 6'6", so for the first time all year, Wayne Chism and Duke Crews will have a chance to really dominate. But the Vols will still play their game, which means Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith will get their chances to score. If it's Virginia in round two, the Cavs also are guard heavy and streaky shooters, but they've stumbled into March, and I like the Vols straight up in this matchup; I think UVA is the worst of the 4 seeds, and Tennessee is the best of the five seeds. At this point, the Vols are beginning to be judged on what they do in March. The Vols can win two games and extend the season. Win.
6 Louisville
Texas A&M is one of the teams I fear the most in this entire tournament. The Elite Eight is in San Antonio in this region, and they'd pack the house. However, the opening round games send them to Lexington, where Louisville will rule. Rick Pitino - the man I hate the most in all of sports - knows how to win in March, just took U of L to the Final Four two years ago, and consistently overachieves. So that means one win over Stanford, and then one upset in front of the home folks in front of a much less experienced A&M team.
2 Memphis
You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Nevada or Creighton here. But I'm trying not to judge Memphis based solely on their performance in Knoxville (18 point blowout). The Tigers haven't lost since, though they've been in what someone coined the witness protection program in Conference USA. Nevada/Creighton are good enough to beat them, and no "expert" bracket I've seen on any website or in any newspaper has Memphis in the Elite Eight. But I think they've got just enough talent and momentum to squeak into the Sweet 16.
It'll all be up in the air here in about 90 minutes. Bracketology unites Americans, sports fans and office employees alike. And the beauty of it is, you can pick 16 different teams up there and make a convincing argument for them.
But I'll say this - March is much more fun when the Vols are still playing in it. Two wins in three days to make this one of the best seasons in Tennessee Basketball history, but as Bruce Pearl has been saying all week, let's not be burdened by our past history. Let's focus on right now.
As stated, I like to go on instinct in picking the brackets on the first run. Last year my instinct was much smarter than this year. In 2006, I picked very few upsets deep into the bracket and had Florida in the title game, which was enough to win my pool. This year, upsets run everywhere. I'm also aware of an SEC/east coast bias - I really haven't seen much of any Pac-10 teams and some others thrown in here and there, so in potential matchups like Vanderbilt vs. Washington State, I'm sitting here thinking "Man, Vanderbilt's got this guy, and this guy, and this guy..." and the reality is, Washington State has those guys too, I just don't know about them. But I pick Vanderbilt anyway. It's not a perfect bracket...I hope it's a good one.
Here are my picks for the next four days, culminating in these 16 teams advancing to next week:
MIDWEST
1 Florida
If Arizona gets their head on straight and gets past Purdue, they've got the talent to give Florida more than a run for their money and would be one of the most interesting second round matchups. Even though Florida didn't run into any of the SEC's best teams in Atlanta, their tournament run still makes one think that they're just fine at tourney time.
5 Butler
Everybody likes ODU in the 5-12 upset, but I remember vividly what Butler did in the Preseason NIT, and even though they've spent the season in the Top 25 and have a high seed for a mid-major, everyone picking ODU is going to put them back in that "nobody respects us" frame of mind that cinderella needs in March. And then there's Maryland, who just doesn't overwhelm me in any way. Butler is at their best playing the best teams, and I think they'll rise to the occassion against Maryland and get to the Sweet 16.
11 Winthrop
Part of this is remembering what they almost did to the Vols last year, and part of this is having seen them play more this year. The other side of the coin here is that Winthrop has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Notre Dame is hot right now and probably a little upset that everyone has labeled Winthrop the new George Mason, and Oregon is also in this bracket fresh off their Pac-10 Tournament title. But what's March without a little magic? A few years ago Gonzaga had never won an NCAA Tournament game, and then won three straight to make it to the Elite Eight. Do not be surprised if Winthrop repeats that feat this year. Or, Notre Dame could knock them off and keep them winless. I like the Eagles.
10 Georgia Tech
With Brian Butch, Wisconsin is easily an Elite Eight team. Without him, I'm just not sure about them at all. GT will have a very tough opening date with UNLV, but if they survive that one, you'll get an offense/defense matchup with the Jackets and the Badgers in the second round. Again, without Butch, I like the Yellow Jackets to make this the official upset region of the tournament.
WEST
8 Kentucky
UPSET SPECIAL! First of all, Kentucky simply does not lose in the first round, period, end of story. So without even looking at the matchup real close, I'm taking UK over Villanova. Then you've got Kentucky and Kansas in Chicago. Kansas has been bounced in the first round in each of the last two years. As a 1 seed in 2007, they won't lose to Niagra. But in the second round, against a Kentucky team that will pack the house and is feeling very disrespected, if the Cats get it going early, Kansas will start sweating. Kentucky is always a good pick in the Dance, no matter their seed. I don't think UK will win the whole thing or anything like that - but I'm forsaking logic and rolling the dice with Tubby and the Cats.
5 Virginia Tech
Other than SEC teams, I've seen Virginia Tech more than anybody this year because I live here in southwestern Virginia. And the Hokies have got three guys - Deron Washington, Xavian Dowdell, and Jamon Gordon - who are real deal ballplayers. The second half of the VT-BC game in Blacksburg was one of the worst beatdowns I've ever seen on a good team (BC is a 7 seed). Now, the other side here is that VT showed they were also capable of getting blown out by the likes of NC State, and the Hokies haven't been in the dance since 1996, which can be a real positive or a real negative. The opening game with Illinois will be testy, but VT is clearly the better team. The SIU-Holy Cross matchup on the other side of the bracket could easily produce an upset as well, but I really think VT is the most talented of those four teams, and the Hokies will advance to the Sweet 16.
6 Duke
Same as Kentucky, you don't disrespect Duke. Playing with less pressure than they've had this decade, and at full strength again after Gerald Henderson's suspension, if they can get past a dangerous opening game with VCU - and you have to think they will, because they're Duke, right? - they would probably see Pitt in the second round. And again, as stated with Kentucky, I think both of these teams will be very dangerous in this tournament because they're playing free of the burden of expectation as a high seed, and feeling disrespected at the same time. Both advance to the Sweet 16.
2 UCLA
See, I'm not totally crazy. UCLA has the easiest run to the Final Four because they won't have to leave California. These guys were the smart pick to win the whole thing two weeks ago, but now that they've lost two straight people are less sure. But being that they just played for the title a year ago, these guys know what they're doing and how to get there. They know how to beat Gonzaga, who knows how to beat Indiana. Bruins to the Sweet 16, and it may not stop until they bring home the crystal ball...
EAST
1 North Carolina
The Marquette-Michigan State winner will be a challenge, but Carolina is another hot team on a roll, having just won the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels' youth will be questioned throughout the tournament, but 30 games into a season you're really not as young as you sound. UNC rolls to the Sweet 16.
4 Texas
A potential UNC-Texas Sweet 16 game would be a ratings bonanza. What's important to remember is that Kevin Durant doesn't do it alone - DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams can really play - and I just can't see anyone of the four in that bracket beating them, or even playing them close.
6 Vanderbilt
A loaded upperclassman team with a coach with tournament experience, matched up with Washington State, who lacks experience. Vandy will, of course, have to get past George Washington first. But the Dores played really well in big games this year, despite getting run by Arkansas twice in their last two games. Derrick Byars and Shan Foster will put this team on their backs and carry them to the Sweet 16.
2 Georgetown
The Hoyas might be playing better right now than anyone. They've got the opposite formula of what usually wins in March - great post players, shaky guard play - but you never know. At the very least, Georgetown should have little problem riding to the Sweet 16.
SOUTH
1 Ohio State
Rolling into March playing really well, but also a young team with a world of expectations. Greg Oden has been making excuses for himself and sounds like he's going to stay in school, but confidence and swagger are necessary in March - does Ohio State have what it takes if they get behind to come back and beat a good team? That being said, I don't think OSU will have any problem making it this far.
5 Tennessee
The Long Beach State game should be entertaining - they start five seniors, which is always a red flag, but they also don't start anyone over 6'6", so for the first time all year, Wayne Chism and Duke Crews will have a chance to really dominate. But the Vols will still play their game, which means Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith will get their chances to score. If it's Virginia in round two, the Cavs also are guard heavy and streaky shooters, but they've stumbled into March, and I like the Vols straight up in this matchup; I think UVA is the worst of the 4 seeds, and Tennessee is the best of the five seeds. At this point, the Vols are beginning to be judged on what they do in March. The Vols can win two games and extend the season. Win.
6 Louisville
Texas A&M is one of the teams I fear the most in this entire tournament. The Elite Eight is in San Antonio in this region, and they'd pack the house. However, the opening round games send them to Lexington, where Louisville will rule. Rick Pitino - the man I hate the most in all of sports - knows how to win in March, just took U of L to the Final Four two years ago, and consistently overachieves. So that means one win over Stanford, and then one upset in front of the home folks in front of a much less experienced A&M team.
2 Memphis
You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Nevada or Creighton here. But I'm trying not to judge Memphis based solely on their performance in Knoxville (18 point blowout). The Tigers haven't lost since, though they've been in what someone coined the witness protection program in Conference USA. Nevada/Creighton are good enough to beat them, and no "expert" bracket I've seen on any website or in any newspaper has Memphis in the Elite Eight. But I think they've got just enough talent and momentum to squeak into the Sweet 16.
It'll all be up in the air here in about 90 minutes. Bracketology unites Americans, sports fans and office employees alike. And the beauty of it is, you can pick 16 different teams up there and make a convincing argument for them.
But I'll say this - March is much more fun when the Vols are still playing in it. Two wins in three days to make this one of the best seasons in Tennessee Basketball history, but as Bruce Pearl has been saying all week, let's not be burdened by our past history. Let's focus on right now.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Selection Sunday - Shooting from the hip...
When I fill out my bracket, I like to run through it right away clean, without paralysis by analysis in trying to determine who's better between 8 and 9 seeds, and just go with instinct. Some years it works better than others, but last year I was 30-2 in the first round and won all of my pools (thanks Florida). Which probably means there's nowhere to go but down, but here are my off the cuff thoughts now that the brackets are out...
- Seeding Florida as the overall #1 seed was the right thing to do. It shows respect for the defending National Champions and, as Billy Packer said, if there's one team you don't want to scout and play against, it's Florida. Five great players in the starting lineup. No matter the record or the ranking or the RPI, Florida deserved the #1 overall seed.
- I really, really like this for Tennessee. Granted, I don't know anything at all about Long Beach State (but we all will tomorrow). And I've only seen Virginia play a couple or three times this year. But for the optimistic among us, if you could pick a one seed to be in the Vols' bracket, you wanted Ohio State - it's against the rules for two teams from the same conference to play each other until the Elite Eight, so they weren't going to get paired with Florida in all probability. I'd much, much rather see Ohio State than see Kansas or North Carolina, simply because the Vols know exactly how close they are to the Buckeyes. Tennessee was free throws away from beating OSU in Columbus in January. They know they can run with them. And then, of all the two seeds to be matched with, you want Memphis - the team you already beat by 20 points earlier this year. And they'll open in Columbus, where they've played before. This is a very, very good draw for the Vols in my opinion.
- Well done for Stan Heath and Arkansas. The Hogs literally played their way in, and then stayed inside the bubble despite getting run by Florida today in the SEC Tournament Championship. This should mean that Stan gets to keep his job, and deservedly so. If Arkansas can perform that well under that kind of pressure, knowing their coach's job was on the line in Atlanta...they can make a run in this thing.
- Here's a free tip for filling out your bracket: Kentucky has never, ever lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They probably haven't had a more anxious matchup than seeing Villanova in the 8/9 game.
- The East bracket is nasty. North Carolina and Georgetown - champions of the ACC and the Big East, two of the best, if not the best conferences in college basketball - plus Kevin Durant. That's a nasty road to the Final Four.
- The four #1 seeds have never all made it to the Final Four...and it won't happen this year either. Which of the four is most vulnerable? I say UNC simply because of the strength of their overall bracket.
- Bob Huggins should be placed under house arrest for the next 24-48 hours. It's just safer for everyone else.
- Seeding Florida as the overall #1 seed was the right thing to do. It shows respect for the defending National Champions and, as Billy Packer said, if there's one team you don't want to scout and play against, it's Florida. Five great players in the starting lineup. No matter the record or the ranking or the RPI, Florida deserved the #1 overall seed.
- I really, really like this for Tennessee. Granted, I don't know anything at all about Long Beach State (but we all will tomorrow). And I've only seen Virginia play a couple or three times this year. But for the optimistic among us, if you could pick a one seed to be in the Vols' bracket, you wanted Ohio State - it's against the rules for two teams from the same conference to play each other until the Elite Eight, so they weren't going to get paired with Florida in all probability. I'd much, much rather see Ohio State than see Kansas or North Carolina, simply because the Vols know exactly how close they are to the Buckeyes. Tennessee was free throws away from beating OSU in Columbus in January. They know they can run with them. And then, of all the two seeds to be matched with, you want Memphis - the team you already beat by 20 points earlier this year. And they'll open in Columbus, where they've played before. This is a very, very good draw for the Vols in my opinion.
- Well done for Stan Heath and Arkansas. The Hogs literally played their way in, and then stayed inside the bubble despite getting run by Florida today in the SEC Tournament Championship. This should mean that Stan gets to keep his job, and deservedly so. If Arkansas can perform that well under that kind of pressure, knowing their coach's job was on the line in Atlanta...they can make a run in this thing.
- Here's a free tip for filling out your bracket: Kentucky has never, ever lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They probably haven't had a more anxious matchup than seeing Villanova in the 8/9 game.
- The East bracket is nasty. North Carolina and Georgetown - champions of the ACC and the Big East, two of the best, if not the best conferences in college basketball - plus Kevin Durant. That's a nasty road to the Final Four.
- The four #1 seeds have never all made it to the Final Four...and it won't happen this year either. Which of the four is most vulnerable? I say UNC simply because of the strength of their overall bracket.
- Bob Huggins should be placed under house arrest for the next 24-48 hours. It's just safer for everyone else.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Ouch.
The SEC Tournament is the biggest risk/reward sports scenario that I've come across in my 25 years. You pay a large amount of money up front to get tickets to 11 basketball games over four days. The atmosphere is incredibly unique and good. If your team wins, and keeps winning, it turns into a magical weekend. But if your team loses - and especially if they lose in painful fashion, especially if they lose when they were supposed to win, and especially if they lose the same way they lost last year, and the year before that, and every single time under the current format of the tournament...it's a gamble.
In the last two years for me personally, and the last 16 for Tennessee Basketball, it's been all risk and no reward. After a day filled with blowouts, LSU and Tennessee played an exciting basketball game with a furious final two minutes, lots of controversy, overtime, and a reminder why Big Baby was the SEC Player of the Year in 2006 and Chris Lofton was the Player of the Year in 2007. But in the end, LSU went on, and Tennessee went home. Again.
The game itself isn't that hard to figure out - Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism, and JaJuan Smith couldn't throw it in the ocean, and LSU blocks shots better than any team I've ever seen in person. The Vols were dead twice in the last two minutes before rallying to tie it and getting a generous whistle to wipe off an LSU basket and send it to overtime. But there was no answer for Baby.
So from here, the Vols are home thinking about 5 or 6 seeds instead of 3 or 4 seeds - though as last year's two seed and this year's RPI of 11 will show, you never really know where the brackets will fall for sure - and should be ready to go come Thursday/Friday in the opening round of The Dance.
The difference between this Tennessee team and others was visible in Atlanta - it's Bruce Pearl. There was more orange in the stands than usual. When Pearl came out to talk to some folks during the Georgia/Auburn game, a large number of Vol fans - including myself - came to an abrupt halt in watching the game, and instead watched Pearl.
Bruce Almighty has something special going on. If you see Phil Fulmer or Pat Summitt in public, you'll say "Hey, there's Coach!" and then your attention moves somewhere else. But with Pearl, it's different. You watch him carry on a conversation with someone on press row for several minutes, just waiting for him to finish and walk back towards the tunnel, so he might turn an eye towards the orange faithful who are waiting to find healing in his wings. He's a showman, a businessman, and he's smart as all get out. And he makes it seem like it's not an act - like he's not playing to the fans, he's actually genuine. In his postgame comments, when he says he and the team feel terrible because of the fans who made the sacrifice to come down, you believe him. When the team loses a heartbreaker, and Pearl walks back towards the tunnel again in defeat, whereas Fulmer would've gotten cussed and no one would dare speak to Summitt for fear of The Stare, Pearl still gets a round of applause from an appreciative and loving Vol Nation. "You'll get 'em next time Coach!" And you believe it. And so does he.
So onward we go into March Madness, hopeful that Pearl and the Vols will keep that something special going. All the analysis, the seeding, the conversation and speculation - none of that will matter after Sunday. Everything, more so than with any other sport and any other time, is about winning. Doesn't matter how, doesn't matter why, doesn't matter anyting. Survive. Advance. Win.
Other random thoughts from one day at the SEC Tournament....
- Alabama's dance team is called The Crimson Cabaret. That gets a round of applause. They were followed by Kentucky's dance team, who danced to "Honky Tonk Badonkadonk." That's probably spelled incorrectly, but I can't bring myself to look up the actual spelling of the word. But when you say "Hey, I wonder what the girls from Kentucky are going to dance to..." and then you hear that song, you just nod your head and think that sometimes the world works exactly the way it's supposed to.
- It was an experience to watch Kentucky play in this tournament because of their fan base, who owned the Dome the same way they've owned every venue the SEC Tournament has been played in. Much like the Vols with baksetball now under Pearl, if UK ever got consistently good at football, they'd have the following, because these guys know how to show up and support the troops. The price of such a fanbase is the constant questioning of Tubby Smith. That's just the way it works. But as far as basketball fans go in the SEC, there's Kentucky, and then there's everybody else.
- The individual fan of the game was a gentlemen who was rocking a blue hat and sunglasses, bluejean shorts, and what appeared to be a plaid shirt that had been turned into a homemade plaid vest, while carrying a tan worse than mine. You see this guy and the blue hat, and you say "Kentucky? That can't be right. He's gotta be from..." Yep, you guessed it. Arkansas. You haven't seen them call the hogs until you've seen this guy do it by ripping off said vest and revealing all of his glory, whiteness and mass while yelling "PIG! SOOIE! RAZORBACKS!" I thought about capturing him with my digital camera, but this is a family blog.
- It's about a bajillion times harder to sell/scalp a ticket in Atlanta than it is in Nashville.
- The Curse of the Georgia Dome lives on.
In the last two years for me personally, and the last 16 for Tennessee Basketball, it's been all risk and no reward. After a day filled with blowouts, LSU and Tennessee played an exciting basketball game with a furious final two minutes, lots of controversy, overtime, and a reminder why Big Baby was the SEC Player of the Year in 2006 and Chris Lofton was the Player of the Year in 2007. But in the end, LSU went on, and Tennessee went home. Again.
The game itself isn't that hard to figure out - Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism, and JaJuan Smith couldn't throw it in the ocean, and LSU blocks shots better than any team I've ever seen in person. The Vols were dead twice in the last two minutes before rallying to tie it and getting a generous whistle to wipe off an LSU basket and send it to overtime. But there was no answer for Baby.
So from here, the Vols are home thinking about 5 or 6 seeds instead of 3 or 4 seeds - though as last year's two seed and this year's RPI of 11 will show, you never really know where the brackets will fall for sure - and should be ready to go come Thursday/Friday in the opening round of The Dance.
The difference between this Tennessee team and others was visible in Atlanta - it's Bruce Pearl. There was more orange in the stands than usual. When Pearl came out to talk to some folks during the Georgia/Auburn game, a large number of Vol fans - including myself - came to an abrupt halt in watching the game, and instead watched Pearl.
Bruce Almighty has something special going on. If you see Phil Fulmer or Pat Summitt in public, you'll say "Hey, there's Coach!" and then your attention moves somewhere else. But with Pearl, it's different. You watch him carry on a conversation with someone on press row for several minutes, just waiting for him to finish and walk back towards the tunnel, so he might turn an eye towards the orange faithful who are waiting to find healing in his wings. He's a showman, a businessman, and he's smart as all get out. And he makes it seem like it's not an act - like he's not playing to the fans, he's actually genuine. In his postgame comments, when he says he and the team feel terrible because of the fans who made the sacrifice to come down, you believe him. When the team loses a heartbreaker, and Pearl walks back towards the tunnel again in defeat, whereas Fulmer would've gotten cussed and no one would dare speak to Summitt for fear of The Stare, Pearl still gets a round of applause from an appreciative and loving Vol Nation. "You'll get 'em next time Coach!" And you believe it. And so does he.
So onward we go into March Madness, hopeful that Pearl and the Vols will keep that something special going. All the analysis, the seeding, the conversation and speculation - none of that will matter after Sunday. Everything, more so than with any other sport and any other time, is about winning. Doesn't matter how, doesn't matter why, doesn't matter anyting. Survive. Advance. Win.
Other random thoughts from one day at the SEC Tournament....
- Alabama's dance team is called The Crimson Cabaret. That gets a round of applause. They were followed by Kentucky's dance team, who danced to "Honky Tonk Badonkadonk." That's probably spelled incorrectly, but I can't bring myself to look up the actual spelling of the word. But when you say "Hey, I wonder what the girls from Kentucky are going to dance to..." and then you hear that song, you just nod your head and think that sometimes the world works exactly the way it's supposed to.
- It was an experience to watch Kentucky play in this tournament because of their fan base, who owned the Dome the same way they've owned every venue the SEC Tournament has been played in. Much like the Vols with baksetball now under Pearl, if UK ever got consistently good at football, they'd have the following, because these guys know how to show up and support the troops. The price of such a fanbase is the constant questioning of Tubby Smith. That's just the way it works. But as far as basketball fans go in the SEC, there's Kentucky, and then there's everybody else.
- The individual fan of the game was a gentlemen who was rocking a blue hat and sunglasses, bluejean shorts, and what appeared to be a plaid shirt that had been turned into a homemade plaid vest, while carrying a tan worse than mine. You see this guy and the blue hat, and you say "Kentucky? That can't be right. He's gotta be from..." Yep, you guessed it. Arkansas. You haven't seen them call the hogs until you've seen this guy do it by ripping off said vest and revealing all of his glory, whiteness and mass while yelling "PIG! SOOIE! RAZORBACKS!" I thought about capturing him with my digital camera, but this is a family blog.
- It's about a bajillion times harder to sell/scalp a ticket in Atlanta than it is in Nashville.
- The Curse of the Georgia Dome lives on.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Final Thoughts Pre-SEC Tournament
Live from Knoxville, en route to Atlanta for what I hope is a long stay for the weekend...
Last year a friend of mine and I bought tickets to the SEC Tournament on ebay for slightly higher than face value. The 06 tournament was in Nashville, and their smaller venue, the Gaylord Entertainment Center. As a result, ticket prices were approaching astronomical rates on ebay, and I thought we got a pretty good deal for seats in the upper level, relatively speaking.
The tournament operates in six sessions - two on Thursday, two on Friday, the semifinals on Saturday and the championship game on Sunday, and you get a ticket to each session (one ticket for two games on Thursday/Friday sessions). The Vols had a first round bye as Eastern Division champions in 2006, and played in the opening game on Friday morning. So we left Knoxville around 8:00 AM on Friday morning, five hours before the Vols were set to face "lowly" South Carolina, heavily intoxictaed with Bruce Pearl's kool-aid and locked in for a long weekend.
The Vols played the opening game on Friday. They lost by eight points.
Instantly, it becomes "this sucks, let's go home." No long weekend. No "let's watch Florida and LSU and Kentucky." No good stories. No great return on our investment, financially or otherwise. This was easily the most expensive, least satisfying sports related trip I've ever been on.
So this year, the Vols are playing on Thursday, and they're playing in the final game (approx. 9:45 PM, but it'll actually be after 10:00 before the tip if history holds). And so you can bet the house that I'll be in my seat at 1:00 tomorrow, locked in to Kentucky and Alabama. Because I'm getting something for my money this year, should the Vols flame out.
I spent less than six hours in this environment last year due to the Vols' early exit, but you could tell that the SEC Tournament had great potential. You just don't see fans from all 12 schools in one place at one time, with large representation from Kentucky (by far the leader), Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Arkansas. With the tournament in Atlanta, I'm sure Georgia will bring folks over from Athens this year. So hopefully, I've have something more to say on this after the weekend. Because I'm still drinking Bruce Pearl's kool-aid.
That said, what will it take for Tennessee to make a good showing in Atlanta?
Vols in the SEC Tournament History
When the SEC Tournament was reinstated in 1979, Tennessee won it by beating Kentucky in the finals. Since then, the trophy case is empty.
The real kicker comes in the modern era, when the SEC expanded to 12 teams beginning in 1992. The previous season, with Wade Houston at the helm and Allan Houston on the floor, the Vols went 9-21 in the regular season, 3-15 in the SEC. Then the Vols went to Nashville for the SEC Tournament, and magic started happening. The Vols beat Ole Miss in the first round 94-85. In the second round, playing #18 Mississippi State, who had beaten the Vols by 27 points a month earlier, Tennessee woke up. The Vols pounded MSU 87-70. Which was a nice story, but no one figured it would last. In the semifinals against Georiga - who had beaten the Vols by 21 points earlier in the season - Tennessee rolled, 85-65. Suddenly, this team was one win away from making the NCAA Tournament with a 9-21 regular season record. The dream died hard in the second half against #24 Alabama in the finals, as the Vols eventually fell 88-69. But those four days in Nashville were magic - I remember laying on my parents' couch and crying when we lost to Alabama.
That was 1991. That was the last time the Vols have played on Saturday in the SEC Tournament.
It's true. Tennessee has the worst record in the SEC Tournament since the league expanded to 12 teams. All 11 other teams have made at least one trip to the Saturday semifinals. But not the Vols.
And it's not that we haven't had our chances. In the 1996 Tournament, with the Vols still feeling the negative effects of the Wade Houston era, Tennessee needed one win to lock up a bid to the NIT Tournament. And Steve Hamer turned in a monster performance as the Vols beat Alabama 77-65. Believe it or not, that was a really big deal at the time. Tennessee did lose the following round, and then lost a heartbreaker to College of Charleston in the opening round of the NIT.
By the way, I'm pretty sure I saw Steve Hamer walk past me to his seats at the Florida game in Knoxville. My season tickets are on the second row of the upper deck. Hamer was sitting something like 20 rows behind me. It's Steve Hamer. C'mon Bruce, hook the man up!
In Jerry Green's first season in 1998, the Vols got the all-important 20th win by beating LSU in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, which locked up an NCAA bid. The Vols then lost one of the most entertaining games I've ever seen, 102-96 to #17 Arkansas in the second round, before losing another heartbreaker to Illinois State in the opening round of the dance. But again, it may not seem like it now, but at the time that was a very big deal.
The bad news starts in 1999, as the Vols began to be good enough to think about winning the SEC Tournament. At 20-7 and ranked #18, winners of six straight including Florida and Kentucky to win the Eastern Division Championship, the Vols headed to Atlanta with a first round bye...and then got bounced by Mississippi State 62-56. This was stunning, only to be topped a week later by the infamous 81-51 loss to SW Missouri State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This was John Ward's final broadcast, which makes me sick.
The following year, back in Atlanta, the Vols were SEC Champions (in a four-way tie) and 24-5, ranked #6. The Vols were thinking about a number one seed. Read that again. This was Tennessee's most talented team since Ernie & Bernie. East Champions for the second straight year, they again get the Thursday bye, and this time it's South Carolina...and down we go again, 75-68. The Vols went from a 1 or 2 seed to a 4, but still made it to the Sweet 16 before losing to North Carolina. But oh, what could've been...
The 2001 season tailspun from 16-1 and ranked #4 to 18-9 and unranked, before the Vols won three straight to close the regular season. They almost blew something like a 30 point lead over Auburn in the first round of the SEC Tournament before winning, then got it handed to them by Ole Miss 86-73 in the second round. Jerry Green's final game would be a first round loss to UNC-Charlotte in the NCAAs.
Buzz Peterson's snakebitten 2002 team needed two wins in the SEC Tournament to qualify for the NIT. They got the first one over Arkansas 68-61, then lost to a very good #8 Alabama team 91-72. His 2003 team got screwed more in one week than any Tennessee team of any sport in history. The Vols finished the regular season 17-10, 9-7 in the SEC. Only one team in history had missed the Dance with a 9-7 SEC record. The Vols figured an easy win in the first round of the SEC Tournament would be the final padding on the resume.
Then Georgia got disqualified from the entire tournament, thanks to Jim Harrick, and instead of playing a pasty West team in the first round, the Vols got Georgia's automatic bye. Now, the one win they needed in the SEC Tournament would be in the form of the more imposing Auburn. Then Jon Higgins was kicked off the team for academic reasons. The Vols lost to Auburn, finished 17-11, and got left out of the NCAA Tournament, while 7-9 Alabama got in. I was driving to Myrtle Beach for spring break during Selection Sunday, and remember being on the phone with my friend, incredulous that we were left out...while stuck in Darlington post-race traffic.
Already locked into the NIT in 2004, the Vols ran into a buzzsaw in Alabama in the first round and were routed 84-49. This is when Ron Grizzard hit six threes in the first half, a couple of them while falling down that Lofton would've been proud of. I mean, what are you supposed to do about that?
Buzz Peterson's last stand in 2005 included a first round victory over Arkansas in very convincing fashion, before falling to #4 Kentucky 76-62. All of that "Is Buzz already fired? Will winning the SEC Tournament save him?" (yes. no.) talk was moot.
So for all the good that Bruce Pearl has done in Knoxville...he couldn't shake this one off. As already explained at the start of this one, the Vols walked into Nashville as the #1 seed in 2006...and walked right back out, 79-71 to South Carolina.
This is the biggest black mark when it comes to records and history and tradition in the entire Tennessee athletic department. I challenge you to find something that even comes close to our futility in the SEC Tournament. Once again - haven't won it since 1979, haven't made it to the semifinals since 1991, have won the Eastern Division three times and have been upset on Friday three times.
At least we won't have to worry about that one this year.
And then, there's this...
The Curse of the Georgia Dome
As we've just seen, it's not that we have a rosy SEC Tournament history anyway. But the Vols are 3-7 in the Georgia Dome in basketball. The monumental upset losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina in 99/00? Georgia Dome. Ron Grizzard's six threes? Georgia Dome. Buzz Peterson's last game? Georgia Dome.
The football team, the savior of the athletic department? Conspiracy theorists, unite.
The Vol football team has played six games in the Georgia Dome. They won the first two - the SEC Championships in 1997 and 1998. In 1997, the Vols turned the ball over six times and still won, 30-29 over Auburn. In 1998, Tennessee forgot how to play offense and gave up touchdowns on a punt return and an INT return. Still won, because 1998 cancels out all bad vibes, 24-14 over Mississppi State. 2-0, but two painfully bad performances.
In 2001, the #1 most heartbreaking game in UT football history, by far, don't argue - the 31-20 SEC Championship loss to LSU with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line. I can't bear to write anymore about this.
And then there are the Peach Bowls. Two embarassing performances, be it getting blown out by Maryland in 2002, or thinking that we're Florida State or Miami and trying to fight everyone on Clemson's team in 2003. Both losses, the first the punctuation mark on an 8-5 2002 season, the second a missed opportunity to finish in the top five (the Vols, for the forgetful, were ranked #6 going into that Clemson game).
The most recent trip, the 2004 SEC Championship Game, was what some people will call a "good loss", but we don't use that term in Knoxville. Undefeated Auburn beat the Vols 38-28, in a game that Tennessee did rally and tie 21-21 in the third quarter. But a loss is a loss is a loss.
Six games, two wins, zero good performances. In fact, the closest thing to a good performance in the Georgia Dome probably is the 2004 game that we lost. Tennessee does not play well in the Georgia Dome. Period.
So we're hoping to change that.
What it will take this weekend...
Let's start with a less-than-favorable matchup against what seems to be a wide awake and fully alert LSU team, who beat Florida and won two of three to close the season. Big Baby is a huge matchup problem for the Vols, and he's probably pissed about his five point effort in Knoxville. Chris Lofton struggles against Garrett Temple more than anyone else in the SEC. Tennessee has created tremendous turnovers against LSU in each of the last two seasons - it'll take a similar effort to give the Vols the edge this weekend. LSU is going to believe that they're talented enough to go 4-0 this weekend and get back in the NCAA Tournament. Bruce Pearl said earlier this week that LSU wouldn't want it more than the Vols. He needs to be right.
If Tennessee gets past this dangerous opening round game, they'll get a more favorable matchup - on paper - with Ole Miss on Friday night. Minus Chris Lofton, the Rebels turned a ten point halftime hole into a rout earlier this season in Oxford. Ole Miss is a feel good story who needs at least one win to think about going dancing. This would be an exciting game to watch, methinks. But again, the Vols will be the better team on Thursday and Friday.
If history falls apart and the Vols do make it to Saturday, you can pencil in the Florida Gators, and the weekend was instantly worth my money. A chance to break the 1-1 season tie would be on the line, and with the Vols rising rapidly with bracketologists - either a 4 or 5 seed right now depending on who you ask, and I still think it can go higher since Tennessee has a higher RPI right now (7) than they did last season, with more quality wins (strength of schedule: 4)...beating Florida would mean we're talking about a 2 or a 3 instead of a 4 or a 5. Florida is still thinking #1 seed. This...this would be fun.
And obviously, if it got to Sunday...well, you don't need any help figuring out why that would be awesome too.
So, what's it going to be? Another short weekend of futility, and another black mark on the program? Or will Bruce Pearl break through and carry the Vols into Saturday/Sunday?
We said it with football, we said it with basketball, we'll say it now: the SEC is good enough, 1 to 12, for anyone to win it this weekend, and for Tennessee to lose to LSU on Thursday or Ole Miss on Friday, or anywhere else.
But Tennessee is good enough to win the whole thing.
Last year a friend of mine and I bought tickets to the SEC Tournament on ebay for slightly higher than face value. The 06 tournament was in Nashville, and their smaller venue, the Gaylord Entertainment Center. As a result, ticket prices were approaching astronomical rates on ebay, and I thought we got a pretty good deal for seats in the upper level, relatively speaking.
The tournament operates in six sessions - two on Thursday, two on Friday, the semifinals on Saturday and the championship game on Sunday, and you get a ticket to each session (one ticket for two games on Thursday/Friday sessions). The Vols had a first round bye as Eastern Division champions in 2006, and played in the opening game on Friday morning. So we left Knoxville around 8:00 AM on Friday morning, five hours before the Vols were set to face "lowly" South Carolina, heavily intoxictaed with Bruce Pearl's kool-aid and locked in for a long weekend.
The Vols played the opening game on Friday. They lost by eight points.
Instantly, it becomes "this sucks, let's go home." No long weekend. No "let's watch Florida and LSU and Kentucky." No good stories. No great return on our investment, financially or otherwise. This was easily the most expensive, least satisfying sports related trip I've ever been on.
So this year, the Vols are playing on Thursday, and they're playing in the final game (approx. 9:45 PM, but it'll actually be after 10:00 before the tip if history holds). And so you can bet the house that I'll be in my seat at 1:00 tomorrow, locked in to Kentucky and Alabama. Because I'm getting something for my money this year, should the Vols flame out.
I spent less than six hours in this environment last year due to the Vols' early exit, but you could tell that the SEC Tournament had great potential. You just don't see fans from all 12 schools in one place at one time, with large representation from Kentucky (by far the leader), Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Arkansas. With the tournament in Atlanta, I'm sure Georgia will bring folks over from Athens this year. So hopefully, I've have something more to say on this after the weekend. Because I'm still drinking Bruce Pearl's kool-aid.
That said, what will it take for Tennessee to make a good showing in Atlanta?
Vols in the SEC Tournament History
When the SEC Tournament was reinstated in 1979, Tennessee won it by beating Kentucky in the finals. Since then, the trophy case is empty.
The real kicker comes in the modern era, when the SEC expanded to 12 teams beginning in 1992. The previous season, with Wade Houston at the helm and Allan Houston on the floor, the Vols went 9-21 in the regular season, 3-15 in the SEC. Then the Vols went to Nashville for the SEC Tournament, and magic started happening. The Vols beat Ole Miss in the first round 94-85. In the second round, playing #18 Mississippi State, who had beaten the Vols by 27 points a month earlier, Tennessee woke up. The Vols pounded MSU 87-70. Which was a nice story, but no one figured it would last. In the semifinals against Georiga - who had beaten the Vols by 21 points earlier in the season - Tennessee rolled, 85-65. Suddenly, this team was one win away from making the NCAA Tournament with a 9-21 regular season record. The dream died hard in the second half against #24 Alabama in the finals, as the Vols eventually fell 88-69. But those four days in Nashville were magic - I remember laying on my parents' couch and crying when we lost to Alabama.
That was 1991. That was the last time the Vols have played on Saturday in the SEC Tournament.
It's true. Tennessee has the worst record in the SEC Tournament since the league expanded to 12 teams. All 11 other teams have made at least one trip to the Saturday semifinals. But not the Vols.
And it's not that we haven't had our chances. In the 1996 Tournament, with the Vols still feeling the negative effects of the Wade Houston era, Tennessee needed one win to lock up a bid to the NIT Tournament. And Steve Hamer turned in a monster performance as the Vols beat Alabama 77-65. Believe it or not, that was a really big deal at the time. Tennessee did lose the following round, and then lost a heartbreaker to College of Charleston in the opening round of the NIT.
By the way, I'm pretty sure I saw Steve Hamer walk past me to his seats at the Florida game in Knoxville. My season tickets are on the second row of the upper deck. Hamer was sitting something like 20 rows behind me. It's Steve Hamer. C'mon Bruce, hook the man up!
In Jerry Green's first season in 1998, the Vols got the all-important 20th win by beating LSU in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, which locked up an NCAA bid. The Vols then lost one of the most entertaining games I've ever seen, 102-96 to #17 Arkansas in the second round, before losing another heartbreaker to Illinois State in the opening round of the dance. But again, it may not seem like it now, but at the time that was a very big deal.
The bad news starts in 1999, as the Vols began to be good enough to think about winning the SEC Tournament. At 20-7 and ranked #18, winners of six straight including Florida and Kentucky to win the Eastern Division Championship, the Vols headed to Atlanta with a first round bye...and then got bounced by Mississippi State 62-56. This was stunning, only to be topped a week later by the infamous 81-51 loss to SW Missouri State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This was John Ward's final broadcast, which makes me sick.
The following year, back in Atlanta, the Vols were SEC Champions (in a four-way tie) and 24-5, ranked #6. The Vols were thinking about a number one seed. Read that again. This was Tennessee's most talented team since Ernie & Bernie. East Champions for the second straight year, they again get the Thursday bye, and this time it's South Carolina...and down we go again, 75-68. The Vols went from a 1 or 2 seed to a 4, but still made it to the Sweet 16 before losing to North Carolina. But oh, what could've been...
The 2001 season tailspun from 16-1 and ranked #4 to 18-9 and unranked, before the Vols won three straight to close the regular season. They almost blew something like a 30 point lead over Auburn in the first round of the SEC Tournament before winning, then got it handed to them by Ole Miss 86-73 in the second round. Jerry Green's final game would be a first round loss to UNC-Charlotte in the NCAAs.
Buzz Peterson's snakebitten 2002 team needed two wins in the SEC Tournament to qualify for the NIT. They got the first one over Arkansas 68-61, then lost to a very good #8 Alabama team 91-72. His 2003 team got screwed more in one week than any Tennessee team of any sport in history. The Vols finished the regular season 17-10, 9-7 in the SEC. Only one team in history had missed the Dance with a 9-7 SEC record. The Vols figured an easy win in the first round of the SEC Tournament would be the final padding on the resume.
Then Georgia got disqualified from the entire tournament, thanks to Jim Harrick, and instead of playing a pasty West team in the first round, the Vols got Georgia's automatic bye. Now, the one win they needed in the SEC Tournament would be in the form of the more imposing Auburn. Then Jon Higgins was kicked off the team for academic reasons. The Vols lost to Auburn, finished 17-11, and got left out of the NCAA Tournament, while 7-9 Alabama got in. I was driving to Myrtle Beach for spring break during Selection Sunday, and remember being on the phone with my friend, incredulous that we were left out...while stuck in Darlington post-race traffic.
Already locked into the NIT in 2004, the Vols ran into a buzzsaw in Alabama in the first round and were routed 84-49. This is when Ron Grizzard hit six threes in the first half, a couple of them while falling down that Lofton would've been proud of. I mean, what are you supposed to do about that?
Buzz Peterson's last stand in 2005 included a first round victory over Arkansas in very convincing fashion, before falling to #4 Kentucky 76-62. All of that "Is Buzz already fired? Will winning the SEC Tournament save him?" (yes. no.) talk was moot.
So for all the good that Bruce Pearl has done in Knoxville...he couldn't shake this one off. As already explained at the start of this one, the Vols walked into Nashville as the #1 seed in 2006...and walked right back out, 79-71 to South Carolina.
This is the biggest black mark when it comes to records and history and tradition in the entire Tennessee athletic department. I challenge you to find something that even comes close to our futility in the SEC Tournament. Once again - haven't won it since 1979, haven't made it to the semifinals since 1991, have won the Eastern Division three times and have been upset on Friday three times.
At least we won't have to worry about that one this year.
And then, there's this...
The Curse of the Georgia Dome
As we've just seen, it's not that we have a rosy SEC Tournament history anyway. But the Vols are 3-7 in the Georgia Dome in basketball. The monumental upset losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina in 99/00? Georgia Dome. Ron Grizzard's six threes? Georgia Dome. Buzz Peterson's last game? Georgia Dome.
The football team, the savior of the athletic department? Conspiracy theorists, unite.
The Vol football team has played six games in the Georgia Dome. They won the first two - the SEC Championships in 1997 and 1998. In 1997, the Vols turned the ball over six times and still won, 30-29 over Auburn. In 1998, Tennessee forgot how to play offense and gave up touchdowns on a punt return and an INT return. Still won, because 1998 cancels out all bad vibes, 24-14 over Mississppi State. 2-0, but two painfully bad performances.
In 2001, the #1 most heartbreaking game in UT football history, by far, don't argue - the 31-20 SEC Championship loss to LSU with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line. I can't bear to write anymore about this.
And then there are the Peach Bowls. Two embarassing performances, be it getting blown out by Maryland in 2002, or thinking that we're Florida State or Miami and trying to fight everyone on Clemson's team in 2003. Both losses, the first the punctuation mark on an 8-5 2002 season, the second a missed opportunity to finish in the top five (the Vols, for the forgetful, were ranked #6 going into that Clemson game).
The most recent trip, the 2004 SEC Championship Game, was what some people will call a "good loss", but we don't use that term in Knoxville. Undefeated Auburn beat the Vols 38-28, in a game that Tennessee did rally and tie 21-21 in the third quarter. But a loss is a loss is a loss.
Six games, two wins, zero good performances. In fact, the closest thing to a good performance in the Georgia Dome probably is the 2004 game that we lost. Tennessee does not play well in the Georgia Dome. Period.
So we're hoping to change that.
What it will take this weekend...
Let's start with a less-than-favorable matchup against what seems to be a wide awake and fully alert LSU team, who beat Florida and won two of three to close the season. Big Baby is a huge matchup problem for the Vols, and he's probably pissed about his five point effort in Knoxville. Chris Lofton struggles against Garrett Temple more than anyone else in the SEC. Tennessee has created tremendous turnovers against LSU in each of the last two seasons - it'll take a similar effort to give the Vols the edge this weekend. LSU is going to believe that they're talented enough to go 4-0 this weekend and get back in the NCAA Tournament. Bruce Pearl said earlier this week that LSU wouldn't want it more than the Vols. He needs to be right.
If Tennessee gets past this dangerous opening round game, they'll get a more favorable matchup - on paper - with Ole Miss on Friday night. Minus Chris Lofton, the Rebels turned a ten point halftime hole into a rout earlier this season in Oxford. Ole Miss is a feel good story who needs at least one win to think about going dancing. This would be an exciting game to watch, methinks. But again, the Vols will be the better team on Thursday and Friday.
If history falls apart and the Vols do make it to Saturday, you can pencil in the Florida Gators, and the weekend was instantly worth my money. A chance to break the 1-1 season tie would be on the line, and with the Vols rising rapidly with bracketologists - either a 4 or 5 seed right now depending on who you ask, and I still think it can go higher since Tennessee has a higher RPI right now (7) than they did last season, with more quality wins (strength of schedule: 4)...beating Florida would mean we're talking about a 2 or a 3 instead of a 4 or a 5. Florida is still thinking #1 seed. This...this would be fun.
And obviously, if it got to Sunday...well, you don't need any help figuring out why that would be awesome too.
So, what's it going to be? Another short weekend of futility, and another black mark on the program? Or will Bruce Pearl break through and carry the Vols into Saturday/Sunday?
We said it with football, we said it with basketball, we'll say it now: the SEC is good enough, 1 to 12, for anyone to win it this weekend, and for Tennessee to lose to LSU on Thursday or Ole Miss on Friday, or anywhere else.
But Tennessee is good enough to win the whole thing.
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