WWE.com just ran a poll leading up to Sunday's Royal Rumble, listing 30 of the greatest all-time WWE wrestlers and giving fans a chance to eliminate them one by one in a fantasy Royal Rumble. While this isn't a totally complete list of the 30 best in WWE history - absent from the list are those with a rocky history with WWE (most notably Randy Savage and Ultimate Warrior) and those who are currently at the forefront with TNA (most notably Kurt Angle) - this poll, aside from being a good idea to at least stir up conversation, gives you insight to who the current fans believe to be most popular, which is of vital importance to the wrestling business. So while this isn't a "who's the best of all-time?" poll on the assumption that the majority of voters in this poll are current wrestling fans but not necessarily old enough to know fully about Hulkamania or even Austin 3:16, this gives you some insight into the minds of wrestling fans today.
Counting down the voting results for all 30 men, from the first eliminated to the last man standing...
1st Eliminated - Vince McMahon
- This should be further evidence that while Vincent Kennedy McMahon can make for entertaining television and is certainly a man of influence both behind the scenes and in front of the curtain, he should never, ever get in the ring.
2 - Bushwacker Luke
3 - Rick Martel
4 - Bob Backlund
5 - Tito Santana
6 - Greg "The Hammer" Valentine
7 - Hacksaw Jim Duggan (hoooooooooooooooooooo!)
8 - John Cena
- This should be a giant red flag to WWE. The franchise player, or at least the face of RAW, didn't make it past the first eight in this field of 30. And it's not like, as you'll see, that the choices for fans at this point were "John Cena or The Rock" - Cena is one of nine WWE superstars in this poll who are still competing today. The (assumed) main eventer for WrestleMania should be one of the last men standing in this poll among current WWE superstars. Instead, it's like fans voted to eliminate Vince, then voted off everyone they've never heard of before, then Hacksaw, and then went right for Cena. Instead of being the last one standing among current performers, Cena is the first one eliminated. John Cena cannot carry the WWE, and in fact, it appears that a significant backlash against him is brewing close to the surface.
9 - Lex Luger
10 - Rey Mysterio
11 - Big John Studd
12 - Brock Lesnar
13 - Yokozuna
14 - Mr. Perfect
15 - Kevin Nash
16 - British Bulldog
17 - Mick Foley
18 - Big Show
19 - Andre the Giant
- Here, as the choices get much more difficult with each elimination, it appears fans stayed on the same train of thought: first, the two giants together...
20 - Ric Flair
21 - Hulk Hogan
- ...and then the two legends together
22 - Batista
- Unlike John Cena, apparently Batista has a lot more pull with fans than I thought he did. To make it this far, and especially to make it past Hogan, is highly significant. Batista survived the longest among current superstars with no ties to wrestling's mountaintop experience in the late 90s and early 00s. So while the guys still working who come after him in this poll may not be as popular as Batista at this very moment, the history they carry (and the fact that neither Batista nor Cena made it anywhere near the end) shows that there are plenty of fans out there with an appreciation for history who've been watching for more than two or three years. To me, this shows among fans both a fond remembrance and a longing to turn back the clock 5-10 years, showing that while the fans may appreciate history, the WWE isn't putting a strong enough product on the table right now to make fans separate themselves enough from the past. Simply put, the present Monday Night Raw/SmackDown isn't as compelling as what you can still search for on YouTube from years past. If you're a wrestling fan and you don't believe me, see how much time you lose track of on YouTube looking up stuff from 1997-2003 in the WWE.
23 - Bret Hart
- When they started this poll and they put the Hitman in it, I was really curious to see how long he would last. And he got a fair response making it this far, but there are at least two guys, at bare minimum, who have no business being in front of him in this poll. So the memory of Bret Hart - who for many fans is nothing more than a landmark history lesson from Montreal 97 and nothing more - may be fading, which is sad. There's been no one I enjoyed hating more than this guy.
24 - Chris Benoit
25 - Kane
- These are the two I mentioned, who aren't in the same breath with Bret Hart, and yet here they are. Benoit making it farther than Cena/Batista is another indication of the longing for the past, methinks. And they lost me on Kane when they took his mask off.
This brings us to the fab five, the five guys you could've picked out at the start of this poll that would've still been standing at the end, and it was only a question of what order. These are the five men who helped carry WWE to its highest point, and helped sustain it.
26 - The Rock
27 - Steve Austin
- If Vince McMahon was the architect of the WWE's rise to glory in the late 90s and their subsequent victory over WCW, then these guys sit at his left and right hands. While The Rock would eventually become more popular among the mainstream public, and while he was the better in-ring performer (especially after Owen Hart tried to break Steve Austin's neck in August 97), and while The Rock had success over a longer period of time, and while The Rock did it both as a face and a heel and did it well...hardcore wrestling fans still never seemed to embrace him over Stone Cold, which was reflected in two WrestleMania main events several years ago, and again in present day in this poll. Either way, if your father is talking about Hogan and Flair, you'll grow up and talk about Austin and Rock-E. The only reason they're not one-two in this poll is that the three guys remaining are all still active.
28 - Triple H
29 - Undertaker
30 - Shawn Michaels
- Again, I'm telling you...the WWE keeps trying to sell Cena and Batista (and the much more enjoyable Edge and Randy Orton), and fans really just want to remember the good old days and see DX and The Undertaker. Ironically, the last two men standing in this poll were the last two men standing in the actual Royal Rumble this year, with the opposite result as Undertaker eliminated HBK. I'm for anything that validates Shawn Michaels as the very best, and Michaels carries more history than any other current superstar. If Michaels and 'Taker mix it up with each other again over the next two months, the only problem would be that they're both so over with the fans right now, the WWE is scared to turn one of them heel. But these guys stand alone...and Shawn Michaels stands at the top.
With eight weeks leading up to WrestleMania, what will WWE do? They teased John Cena vs. Undertaker last night...but really? Am I the only one who thinks it's obvious that it's a much better idea to have Undertaker vs. Batista and then to throw Cena against HBK, or throw Edge and Orton in that mix as well and just have them all go at it? As I said on this blog in December, I want to watch and I want to look forward to watching...and WrestleMania is the alpha and omega of professional wrestling. So, can they put something on the table that's worth my $39.95? I really hope so, and we'll find out...but this poll still shows that the success the WWE enjoyed just a few years ago was so high, it's made it almost impossible to keep pace. So maybe the best way to look at it is that things aren't worse now in WWE, they're just different. And people who've been watching wrestling much longer than me will tell you that it ebbs and flows, it comes and goes over years and decades. But leading up to WrestleMania 23, I hope they find their way back towards the mountaintop.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Friday, January 26, 2007
2007 NBA All-Stars - Will's Vote
All of the professional all star games usually turn into popularity contests, but based on actual performance this season, these are my vote getters for the 07 teams from the Eastern and Western Conference (look ma, no Celtics! Shocking!)
EASTERN CONFERENCE - STARTERS
G - Gilbert Arenas (Wizards)
For pure entertainment value just for starters, as anybody who says they'd take a whole NBA season off just to score 84 points on Duke is grabbing my attention. Arenas says he's motivated by his Team USA snub (led by Coach K), which shows as he's currently second in the league in scoring (29.7 per), but he moved from a second tier player to the main stage during the playoffs last year, scoring 34 a game in a six game duel with LeBron James in the opening round. Arenas has backed it up with an outstanding first half this year, leading the Wizards to the East's second best record. Which may not be saying much, but Arenas is playing better basketball than anyone else the East can put on the floor this year.
G - Dwyane Wade (Heat)
These two guys appear to be playing at another level at guard in the Eastern Conference. While Wade has been slowed a bit by injury and slowed even further by Shaq's absence this year, and probably won't take over the NBA the way many were thinking he might last June, he's not going away anytime soon. There are other good players at guard in the East, but there's simply no debating these two.
F - LeBron James (Cavs)
LBJ just gathered the highest non-Yao Ming vote total for an All-Star game ever, so that's one he's got on Jordan. But I digress. LeBron is averaging 27 points, 7 boards and 6 assists per game, and he's led Cleveland to within a game of the conference lead behind Detroit. Again, team strength is relative in the East, but this guy is still the most valuable player to his team in the league. These three are obvious, now it gets more interesting...
F - Chris Bosh (Raptors)
Michael Redd's injury makes this an easier choice. Bosh continues the youth movement by averaging a double double and putting the Raptors atop the worst division in the history of professional sports. Kudos to the fans for paying attention and voting him in as a starter.
C - Dwight Howard (Magic)
Since his name isn't Shaquille O'Neal, Howard won't get the start, but he most definitely should. In only his third season at the tender age of 21, Howard is scoring 19 and getting 13 rebounds per game with the Orlando Magic on his shoulders. If they put more talent around him down there and can keep him in Orlando down the road, look out...
EASTERN CONFERENCE - RESERVES
Jason Kidd (Nets)
A nod to the value of a true point guard, Kidd gets a spot on the bench. Still leading the Easts in assists per game and second in assist/turnover ratio, still a big factor every time he steps out on the floor, and would be a starter if not for Arenas' explosion of points and the presence of teammate...
Vince Carter (Nets)
I scratch my head as to why New Jersey hasn't run away with the Atlantic Division, but it's probably got little to do with these two guys. Carter - now a wily veteran - is still averaging 25 a game and is a threat to score 40+ every single night.
Joe Johnson (Hawks)
Yay, an ex-Celtic! After being too young in Boston and struggling to find his role in Phoenix, Johnson has become the main attraction in Atlanta, which is a bit of an oxymoron, but he's still playing solid basketball at 25 a game.
Richard Hamilton (Pistons)
Head to head in deciding who to give the last swing spot to Ben Gordon or Richard Hamilton, I went with Hamilton because the Pistons have the East's best record and Hamilton both scores more points and grabs more rebounds, though it's an interesting argument as to which is more valuable to his team.
Jermaine O'Neal (Pacers)
Michael Redd's injury makes this an easier decision. O'Neal averages a double double and leads the league in blocked shots, and while he may not be among the 12 most popular players in the Eastern Conference, he's grown up right before our very eyes the past few seasons, to the point that he's getting upset about the Pacers, who have become his team to lead, and their average play of late (22-20 as of today).
Caron Butler (Wizards)
If he and Arenas stay together and they get an additional puzzle piece in Washington, especially playing in this conference right now, the Wizards are a team you don't want to meet in the playoffs. 21 points and 8 boards per game.
Emeka Okafor (Bobcats)
Outside of Howard and the injured Shaq, is there another truly worthy big man in the Eastern Conference? Okafor is the closest thing to it, playing well even though Charlotte struggles at the bottom of their division.
WESTERN CONFERENCE - STARTERS
G - Steve Nash (Suns)
Hi, I'm a two time and soon to be three time consecutive MVP, but you guys still won't vote for me. My team is 34-8, and since we started 1-5 and 3-6 in our first nine games, we're 31-2 and have currently won 15 straight. We average 112 points per game, and if you watch us play, you'll enjoy it. And I get the whole thing running. I share - 11.6 assists per game, which is 2.5 more per game than the next closest player in the entire league. I also score 19.6 a game and get more rebounds than most pure point guards. I'm the type of player you'd tell your kids to watch and emmulate. Is it cause I'm Canadian (eh?)? I even cut my hair this season. But you'd rather vote for Tracy McGrady. That's cool - see you in June.
G - Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
There's nothing about this that makes me happy - I hate the Lakers, and I don't enjoy anything about Kobe Bryant. That said, there's no one in the NBA who's more of a threat to take over a game on the offensive end and impose his will than Kobe Bryant. There is no one more potentially dangerous, and IF he continues to build some level of maturity, which only comes in spurts at this point in his already lengthy career, then you can reinsert him in that "one of the greatest of all time" conversation.
F - Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets)
I went back and forth on whether or not to reward 'Melo with one of my coveted Western Conference starting spots because of his suspension for fighting, but the year this guy is having outside of that is undeniable and he'd be the frontrunner for MVP if he'd played 39 games instead of 24 to this point. Melo leads the league in scoring at 31.6, and he and A.I. will only get better together. And I'm glad to see him playing well so we can rekindle some of that LBJ-Melo-Wade rivalry stuff.
F - Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs)
You've got quite the predicament if you don't consider this guy, Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett as centers. Of the three, Nowitzki gets my nod for the power forward spot - KG is simply out of the conversation because he plays for Minnesota, while you could argue all day over whether you'd take Duncan or Nowitzki and your answer will probably depend on what style of basketball you like. I'll make it easy on myself by taking Dirk here and then doing this...
C - Tim Duncan (Spurs)
See, that wasn't hard. I can't write for too long about Timmy without having flashbacks of ML Carr at the draft lottery, but I mean, it's Tim Duncan. He's solid. And you'd take him over Yao Ming, right? Is that really that hard of a question?
WESTERN CONFERENCE - RESERVES
Baron Davis (Warriors)
Chris Paul is banged up, so it's easier to just go with Davis when thinking about Nash's backup running the point. Much like Jason Kidd in the East, I always leave room for the true, pure PGs on the roster, and while Davis doesn't fit that mold quite as well, his 21 points/8 assists per game certainly help.
Allen Iverson (Nuggets)
Another case where it's tough to make a call, seeing how Iverson hasn't been in the West that long and hasn't played a full season, but A.I. is still definitely one of the 12 best players, even in this loaded conference. Give him more time with Melo, and you'll see good things happen.
Ray Allen (Sonics)
Another case of a great player carrying a team by himself, which has been the case Allen's entire career, he's just been bad markets away from being considered as one of the best in the entire league IMO.
Tracy McGrady (Rockets)
Solid numbers again from T-Mac, but you can't seriously consider putting him in the starting five in this conference in this year. The back continues to be an issue, so we'll have to wait and see if Houston can put together a run in the playoffs while he's healthy enough to do what he does best.
Kevin Garnett (T'Wolves)
Your favorite fantasy player and mine, Garnett - in his 13th season, holy cow - has the loyalty that you love, and it makes you want to pull for this guy. But his championship window may be permanently closed. Nevertheless, he's still good for a double double every night. Needs to work on his fighting.
Zach Randolph (Blazers)
Randolph gets the narrow nod over Carlos Boozer for this spot because he carries a heavier load in Portland, which is unfair because Utah is playing great basketball, but I feel like I have to give a spot to...
Yao Ming (Rockets)
...and I can't rationalize leaving him off for Boozer. Yao is more than solid, much like McGrady, but neither have shown themselves capable of taking Houston to the next level - which, granted, is hard to do when you're playing in the same division as Dallas and San Antonio, or the same conference as the Suns...
EASTERN CONFERENCE - STARTERS
G - Gilbert Arenas (Wizards)
For pure entertainment value just for starters, as anybody who says they'd take a whole NBA season off just to score 84 points on Duke is grabbing my attention. Arenas says he's motivated by his Team USA snub (led by Coach K), which shows as he's currently second in the league in scoring (29.7 per), but he moved from a second tier player to the main stage during the playoffs last year, scoring 34 a game in a six game duel with LeBron James in the opening round. Arenas has backed it up with an outstanding first half this year, leading the Wizards to the East's second best record. Which may not be saying much, but Arenas is playing better basketball than anyone else the East can put on the floor this year.
G - Dwyane Wade (Heat)
These two guys appear to be playing at another level at guard in the Eastern Conference. While Wade has been slowed a bit by injury and slowed even further by Shaq's absence this year, and probably won't take over the NBA the way many were thinking he might last June, he's not going away anytime soon. There are other good players at guard in the East, but there's simply no debating these two.
F - LeBron James (Cavs)
LBJ just gathered the highest non-Yao Ming vote total for an All-Star game ever, so that's one he's got on Jordan. But I digress. LeBron is averaging 27 points, 7 boards and 6 assists per game, and he's led Cleveland to within a game of the conference lead behind Detroit. Again, team strength is relative in the East, but this guy is still the most valuable player to his team in the league. These three are obvious, now it gets more interesting...
F - Chris Bosh (Raptors)
Michael Redd's injury makes this an easier choice. Bosh continues the youth movement by averaging a double double and putting the Raptors atop the worst division in the history of professional sports. Kudos to the fans for paying attention and voting him in as a starter.
C - Dwight Howard (Magic)
Since his name isn't Shaquille O'Neal, Howard won't get the start, but he most definitely should. In only his third season at the tender age of 21, Howard is scoring 19 and getting 13 rebounds per game with the Orlando Magic on his shoulders. If they put more talent around him down there and can keep him in Orlando down the road, look out...
EASTERN CONFERENCE - RESERVES
Jason Kidd (Nets)
A nod to the value of a true point guard, Kidd gets a spot on the bench. Still leading the Easts in assists per game and second in assist/turnover ratio, still a big factor every time he steps out on the floor, and would be a starter if not for Arenas' explosion of points and the presence of teammate...
Vince Carter (Nets)
I scratch my head as to why New Jersey hasn't run away with the Atlantic Division, but it's probably got little to do with these two guys. Carter - now a wily veteran - is still averaging 25 a game and is a threat to score 40+ every single night.
Joe Johnson (Hawks)
Yay, an ex-Celtic! After being too young in Boston and struggling to find his role in Phoenix, Johnson has become the main attraction in Atlanta, which is a bit of an oxymoron, but he's still playing solid basketball at 25 a game.
Richard Hamilton (Pistons)
Head to head in deciding who to give the last swing spot to Ben Gordon or Richard Hamilton, I went with Hamilton because the Pistons have the East's best record and Hamilton both scores more points and grabs more rebounds, though it's an interesting argument as to which is more valuable to his team.
Jermaine O'Neal (Pacers)
Michael Redd's injury makes this an easier decision. O'Neal averages a double double and leads the league in blocked shots, and while he may not be among the 12 most popular players in the Eastern Conference, he's grown up right before our very eyes the past few seasons, to the point that he's getting upset about the Pacers, who have become his team to lead, and their average play of late (22-20 as of today).
Caron Butler (Wizards)
If he and Arenas stay together and they get an additional puzzle piece in Washington, especially playing in this conference right now, the Wizards are a team you don't want to meet in the playoffs. 21 points and 8 boards per game.
Emeka Okafor (Bobcats)
Outside of Howard and the injured Shaq, is there another truly worthy big man in the Eastern Conference? Okafor is the closest thing to it, playing well even though Charlotte struggles at the bottom of their division.
WESTERN CONFERENCE - STARTERS
G - Steve Nash (Suns)
Hi, I'm a two time and soon to be three time consecutive MVP, but you guys still won't vote for me. My team is 34-8, and since we started 1-5 and 3-6 in our first nine games, we're 31-2 and have currently won 15 straight. We average 112 points per game, and if you watch us play, you'll enjoy it. And I get the whole thing running. I share - 11.6 assists per game, which is 2.5 more per game than the next closest player in the entire league. I also score 19.6 a game and get more rebounds than most pure point guards. I'm the type of player you'd tell your kids to watch and emmulate. Is it cause I'm Canadian (eh?)? I even cut my hair this season. But you'd rather vote for Tracy McGrady. That's cool - see you in June.
G - Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
There's nothing about this that makes me happy - I hate the Lakers, and I don't enjoy anything about Kobe Bryant. That said, there's no one in the NBA who's more of a threat to take over a game on the offensive end and impose his will than Kobe Bryant. There is no one more potentially dangerous, and IF he continues to build some level of maturity, which only comes in spurts at this point in his already lengthy career, then you can reinsert him in that "one of the greatest of all time" conversation.
F - Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets)
I went back and forth on whether or not to reward 'Melo with one of my coveted Western Conference starting spots because of his suspension for fighting, but the year this guy is having outside of that is undeniable and he'd be the frontrunner for MVP if he'd played 39 games instead of 24 to this point. Melo leads the league in scoring at 31.6, and he and A.I. will only get better together. And I'm glad to see him playing well so we can rekindle some of that LBJ-Melo-Wade rivalry stuff.
F - Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs)
You've got quite the predicament if you don't consider this guy, Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett as centers. Of the three, Nowitzki gets my nod for the power forward spot - KG is simply out of the conversation because he plays for Minnesota, while you could argue all day over whether you'd take Duncan or Nowitzki and your answer will probably depend on what style of basketball you like. I'll make it easy on myself by taking Dirk here and then doing this...
C - Tim Duncan (Spurs)
See, that wasn't hard. I can't write for too long about Timmy without having flashbacks of ML Carr at the draft lottery, but I mean, it's Tim Duncan. He's solid. And you'd take him over Yao Ming, right? Is that really that hard of a question?
WESTERN CONFERENCE - RESERVES
Baron Davis (Warriors)
Chris Paul is banged up, so it's easier to just go with Davis when thinking about Nash's backup running the point. Much like Jason Kidd in the East, I always leave room for the true, pure PGs on the roster, and while Davis doesn't fit that mold quite as well, his 21 points/8 assists per game certainly help.
Allen Iverson (Nuggets)
Another case where it's tough to make a call, seeing how Iverson hasn't been in the West that long and hasn't played a full season, but A.I. is still definitely one of the 12 best players, even in this loaded conference. Give him more time with Melo, and you'll see good things happen.
Ray Allen (Sonics)
Another case of a great player carrying a team by himself, which has been the case Allen's entire career, he's just been bad markets away from being considered as one of the best in the entire league IMO.
Tracy McGrady (Rockets)
Solid numbers again from T-Mac, but you can't seriously consider putting him in the starting five in this conference in this year. The back continues to be an issue, so we'll have to wait and see if Houston can put together a run in the playoffs while he's healthy enough to do what he does best.
Kevin Garnett (T'Wolves)
Your favorite fantasy player and mine, Garnett - in his 13th season, holy cow - has the loyalty that you love, and it makes you want to pull for this guy. But his championship window may be permanently closed. Nevertheless, he's still good for a double double every night. Needs to work on his fighting.
Zach Randolph (Blazers)
Randolph gets the narrow nod over Carlos Boozer for this spot because he carries a heavier load in Portland, which is unfair because Utah is playing great basketball, but I feel like I have to give a spot to...
Yao Ming (Rockets)
...and I can't rationalize leaving him off for Boozer. Yao is more than solid, much like McGrady, but neither have shown themselves capable of taking Houston to the next level - which, granted, is hard to do when you're playing in the same division as Dallas and San Antonio, or the same conference as the Suns...
Thursday, January 25, 2007
You leave town for a few days and...
While I was braving the snow, ice, and horrible drivers en route to Grand Rapids, Michigan on Sunday-Wednesday for a conference, all the things I care about in sports made headlines. So you're getting the abbreviated day late dollar short version, but just to touch on a few things...
A headline of your choice that does not include the phrase "Peyton Manning finally won a big game."
Last week, I almost jumped a table at Applebee's to correct a loud, uneducated Virginia Tech fan who was running his mouth about how Peyton Manning had never won the big one and never even won an SEC Championship while at Tennessee (see 1997). But you get the point.
When Manning and the Colts did win an epic AFC Championship Game on Sunday, beating Tom Brady and the Patriots, you were flooded with all of these "finally!" moments and soundbites, and a Sports Illustrated arrived in my mailbox this morning with Manning on the front and a "YES HE CAN" headline. Which is cute, but wrong on two counts.
First - people who aren't from Knoxville simply do not understand what Manning did here. Let's put aside the 1997 SEC Championship and the 30-29 win over Auburn where Manning threw for 373 yards and 4 TDs while overcoming six turnovers, five of them fumbles. Even though that game and that ring alone should be enough to never have to answer that question about Manning again, what people who aren't from Knoxville don't understand is the gravity of what Peyton Manning did with Alabama.
When Manning came here, Alabama was the bullseye. Florida was the divisional rivalry, but the Gators and Vols had split their previous four meetings when Manning was a freshman. Peyton didn't play at all in the 94 game that year that Florida won 31-0. He had become the starter by the time Alabama rolled into Knoxville and broke the Vols' hearts again, 17-13 - in fact, Manning wrote the final piece of that heartbreak story by missing a wide open James Stewart in the end zone that would have won the game on 4th and goal. With that win, it made it nine years in a row that the Vols had not beaten the Tide.
So talk all you want about Florida, but the reason that you're still talking about Florida today in Knoxville and not Alabama is because Peyton Manning erased them from the relevant conversation.
41-14 in 1995. 20-13 in 1996. 38-23 in 1997. Under Manning, Alabama went from the absolute nemesis and the hill you couldn't climb to an afterthought in the minds of many. Peyton Manning didn't just turn the tables with Alabama, he set them on fire and left only the ashes behind. Manning started what would become a seven year itch for the Tide, and since Peyton Manning led the way in 1995, the Vols are 10-2 against Alabama. For that reason, among others, the idea that Manning has never won a big game is pure blasphemy to Knoxvillians and Vol fans, and you cannot convince us otherwise.
The other reason that all of this talk this week about Manning getting over the hump is out of place is because if the Bears when the Super Bowl, then here we go again. Manning slew Brady and his primadonna head coach, but if Lovie Smith's boys get after the Colts, sack him a bunch, and he throws several picks and Chicago wins, then it's right back to the "can't win the big one" conversation. A Super Bowl ring changes everything - as I've said, if he gets a ring, he instantly enters the "greatest quarterback of all time" conversation. But if he doesn't, he'll only stay in that conversation until the next gunslinger comes along. Remember Dan Marino? Manning's presence and numbers have bumped Marino out of the "greatest of all time" conversation, because Marino had only them to stand on, and now he doesn't stand there alone. Meanwhile, John Elway and Brett Favre stay in that conversation, because they've got the hardware. It's not complicated. You play to win the game. Hello!
Much more on the Super Bowl in the coming days...let's hope Peyton gets his ring and doesn't have to answer any questions about his legacy again. And even if he doesn't, his legacy is in on a street sign and a wax statue in Knoxville. Which has to count for something.
(By the way, I heart Jim Nantz. Let's put aside his excellent Masters coverage and his work with the Final Four. His 4th quarter calls in that game on Sunday night made you feel like this was really something special, which it was. If it's anyone else in the Super Bowl booth, I'll be stunned and rightfully so. An excellent job, as always, from this guy.)
Bruce Pearl is a creative human being.
You think you've seen everything out of this guy, but if he's not cussing a reporter in a synagogue, he paints up for the Lady Vols. Much has been said about this already, but the most fascinating thing about it is to go to ESPN.com or CNNSI.com or a site like that where someone has written a column about it - pro or con - and then read the user comments underneath. And what you find is either Vol fans gushing over this guy in the midst of a four-of-five losing skid, other SEC fans tearing him apart like good SEC fans do, or scores of neutral parties who say "I would kill to have a coach like this" and "If you're making fun of him, you're jealous that he's not your coach." Phenomenal. And true.
That being said...
Chris Lofton's absence should not mean we forget how to play defense.
It's an uncomfortable trend to play so poorly out of the gate in the second half for so many consecutive games. Last night at Ole Miss, in a tough spot on the road without Lofton but playing a 1-4 Ole Miss team that's widely considered to be the worst in the SEC, the Vols had a nice 10 point halftime lead that they squandered in a breath. The Vols end up surrendering 80+ points again and lose, again. Tennessee is now 14-6, 2-3 in the SEC.
Now, don't panic. The Vols have a tremendous RPI and strength of schedule. Say it with me, again: "This is a marathon, not a sprint." At home (and in Nashville), the Vols are undefeated and have some big notches in their belt. But on the road, it's shaky. We're not getting killed, we're not getting out-talented, we're getting outplayed, especially in the second half and on the defensive end.
Chris Lofton's questionable return for Lexington - the game he wants to play in more than any other on the schedule - this weekend will not make a big difference if the Vols don't shore up the defensive end.
You can copy everything I said about the SEC in football and paste it to this basketball season. If the Vols just lost to the worst team in the league, but have already proven their merit with wins over Memphis, Texas and Oklahoma State, it's going to be a fight every night. Nothing is free, everything counts. The schedule gets no easier after the trip to Rupp Arena, with Georgia coming to Knoxville on Wednesday, and then a trip to the O-Dome and the Gators. Tennessee has to fasten the defense down and play better, and I'm not worried about their confidence because of who's running the ship. That said...I hope Lofton is ready to go this weekend.
Buckle up. It's going to be a long and dangerous trip through these next eleven games.
A headline of your choice that does not include the phrase "Peyton Manning finally won a big game."
Last week, I almost jumped a table at Applebee's to correct a loud, uneducated Virginia Tech fan who was running his mouth about how Peyton Manning had never won the big one and never even won an SEC Championship while at Tennessee (see 1997). But you get the point.
When Manning and the Colts did win an epic AFC Championship Game on Sunday, beating Tom Brady and the Patriots, you were flooded with all of these "finally!" moments and soundbites, and a Sports Illustrated arrived in my mailbox this morning with Manning on the front and a "YES HE CAN" headline. Which is cute, but wrong on two counts.
First - people who aren't from Knoxville simply do not understand what Manning did here. Let's put aside the 1997 SEC Championship and the 30-29 win over Auburn where Manning threw for 373 yards and 4 TDs while overcoming six turnovers, five of them fumbles. Even though that game and that ring alone should be enough to never have to answer that question about Manning again, what people who aren't from Knoxville don't understand is the gravity of what Peyton Manning did with Alabama.
When Manning came here, Alabama was the bullseye. Florida was the divisional rivalry, but the Gators and Vols had split their previous four meetings when Manning was a freshman. Peyton didn't play at all in the 94 game that year that Florida won 31-0. He had become the starter by the time Alabama rolled into Knoxville and broke the Vols' hearts again, 17-13 - in fact, Manning wrote the final piece of that heartbreak story by missing a wide open James Stewart in the end zone that would have won the game on 4th and goal. With that win, it made it nine years in a row that the Vols had not beaten the Tide.
So talk all you want about Florida, but the reason that you're still talking about Florida today in Knoxville and not Alabama is because Peyton Manning erased them from the relevant conversation.
41-14 in 1995. 20-13 in 1996. 38-23 in 1997. Under Manning, Alabama went from the absolute nemesis and the hill you couldn't climb to an afterthought in the minds of many. Peyton Manning didn't just turn the tables with Alabama, he set them on fire and left only the ashes behind. Manning started what would become a seven year itch for the Tide, and since Peyton Manning led the way in 1995, the Vols are 10-2 against Alabama. For that reason, among others, the idea that Manning has never won a big game is pure blasphemy to Knoxvillians and Vol fans, and you cannot convince us otherwise.
The other reason that all of this talk this week about Manning getting over the hump is out of place is because if the Bears when the Super Bowl, then here we go again. Manning slew Brady and his primadonna head coach, but if Lovie Smith's boys get after the Colts, sack him a bunch, and he throws several picks and Chicago wins, then it's right back to the "can't win the big one" conversation. A Super Bowl ring changes everything - as I've said, if he gets a ring, he instantly enters the "greatest quarterback of all time" conversation. But if he doesn't, he'll only stay in that conversation until the next gunslinger comes along. Remember Dan Marino? Manning's presence and numbers have bumped Marino out of the "greatest of all time" conversation, because Marino had only them to stand on, and now he doesn't stand there alone. Meanwhile, John Elway and Brett Favre stay in that conversation, because they've got the hardware. It's not complicated. You play to win the game. Hello!
Much more on the Super Bowl in the coming days...let's hope Peyton gets his ring and doesn't have to answer any questions about his legacy again. And even if he doesn't, his legacy is in on a street sign and a wax statue in Knoxville. Which has to count for something.
(By the way, I heart Jim Nantz. Let's put aside his excellent Masters coverage and his work with the Final Four. His 4th quarter calls in that game on Sunday night made you feel like this was really something special, which it was. If it's anyone else in the Super Bowl booth, I'll be stunned and rightfully so. An excellent job, as always, from this guy.)
Bruce Pearl is a creative human being.
You think you've seen everything out of this guy, but if he's not cussing a reporter in a synagogue, he paints up for the Lady Vols. Much has been said about this already, but the most fascinating thing about it is to go to ESPN.com or CNNSI.com or a site like that where someone has written a column about it - pro or con - and then read the user comments underneath. And what you find is either Vol fans gushing over this guy in the midst of a four-of-five losing skid, other SEC fans tearing him apart like good SEC fans do, or scores of neutral parties who say "I would kill to have a coach like this" and "If you're making fun of him, you're jealous that he's not your coach." Phenomenal. And true.
That being said...
Chris Lofton's absence should not mean we forget how to play defense.
It's an uncomfortable trend to play so poorly out of the gate in the second half for so many consecutive games. Last night at Ole Miss, in a tough spot on the road without Lofton but playing a 1-4 Ole Miss team that's widely considered to be the worst in the SEC, the Vols had a nice 10 point halftime lead that they squandered in a breath. The Vols end up surrendering 80+ points again and lose, again. Tennessee is now 14-6, 2-3 in the SEC.
Now, don't panic. The Vols have a tremendous RPI and strength of schedule. Say it with me, again: "This is a marathon, not a sprint." At home (and in Nashville), the Vols are undefeated and have some big notches in their belt. But on the road, it's shaky. We're not getting killed, we're not getting out-talented, we're getting outplayed, especially in the second half and on the defensive end.
Chris Lofton's questionable return for Lexington - the game he wants to play in more than any other on the schedule - this weekend will not make a big difference if the Vols don't shore up the defensive end.
You can copy everything I said about the SEC in football and paste it to this basketball season. If the Vols just lost to the worst team in the league, but have already proven their merit with wins over Memphis, Texas and Oklahoma State, it's going to be a fight every night. Nothing is free, everything counts. The schedule gets no easier after the trip to Rupp Arena, with Georgia coming to Knoxville on Wednesday, and then a trip to the O-Dome and the Gators. Tennessee has to fasten the defense down and play better, and I'm not worried about their confidence because of who's running the ship. That said...I hope Lofton is ready to go this weekend.
Buckle up. It's going to be a long and dangerous trip through these next eleven games.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
First Guess - 2007 College Football Top 25
Now that the deadline has passed for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft, we arrive at our first real opportunity to break out the crystal ball for the 2007 college football season. As hope is already springing eternal across many a campus, this is a rough, rough estimate of how things might shake out in the preseason polls in August, based on returning players and the '07 schedule...
(CollegeFootballNews.com and NationalChamps.net are great sources of information, FYI)
25. Alabama
The Nick Saban factor will be enough to get the Tide into the preseason polls, along with plenty of returning starters capable of making noise immediately if they can win some big SEC games. 2007 could be John Parker Wilson's year to become a great SEC quarterback.
24. Nebraska
Zac Taylor out, Sam Keller in at quarterback for a team that should again be the easy favorite in the Big 12 North. Eight returning starters on offense surround Keller, but the defense returns only five.
23. Florida State
Remember when the Vols were ranked in this year's preseason polls after a horrible year? Same thing for FSU in '07, bolstered by their win over UCLA in the bowl game. Defense will return eight, offense returns everyone but Lorenzo Booker and Chris Davis at the skill positions. They can't lose as many close games in 2007, can they?
22. South Carolina
This is the year to legitimately start expecting things from Steve Spurrier's team. The early defection of Sidney Rice hurts, but you'd best believe the ballcoach will find some receivers. With Syvelle Newton's graduation, it appears the offense is in the firm grip of Blake Mitchell with Cory Boyd behind him in the running game, and the defense returns 10, including Casper and Jasper Brinkley. Only downside is the Cocks pickup a road date in Baton Rouge on the SEC slate.
21. Georgia
The Dawgs won't hurt much for Danny Ware's NFL defection with Kregg Lumpkin and Thomas Brown back, but Charles Johnson's loss at DE will sting. Matthew Stafford will also take snaps behind four new offensive linemen. UGA will be strong at secondary but the front seven will be full of questions - they'll be ranked out of respect for Mark Richt, but may not stay long...
20. Tennessee
Had the Vols beaten Penn State and kept Robert Meachem and Demetrice Morley around, you could bump this number up around seven or eight spots. As it stands, the Vols will have Erik Ainge and a plethora of talented running backs behind some decent offensive linemen, but no experienced wide receivers. Inexperience will also be a factor at defensive tackle, and a rotation must be established in the secondary to find the best places for Jonathan Hefney, Roshaun Fellows, Antonio Wardlow and others (recruiting will help here). LBs will be a strength. As always, the Vols will be good enough to win every game, and the schedule will be difficult enough to make them lose every game. We'll find out in September.
19. Boston College
A wild card based on the new coaching situation, but this is an offense loaded with seniors, including Matt Ryan and LV Whitworth, and a defense that returns 10 starters. The ACC will be wide open once again, and the Eagles will certainly be good enough to compete for the division crown.
18. Auburn
Brandon Cox returns but most of his weapons don't. Brad Lester will get most of the carries at RB, but only one offensive lineman returns. The defense will again have to carry the team, but this may be Auburn's least talented team in the last four years, and the schedule sends Auburn to Athens, Gainesville, and Baton Rouge.
17. UCLA
This I haven't seen before...UCLA returns 10 starters on offense, 10 starters on defense. The Bruins may have lost a little momentum from the Victory Bell win by losing to Florida State, but they'll still be loaded and they still play in a relatively weaker conference. The Bruins will look to supplant Oregon and join California as the annual runners-up in the Pac-10.
16. Penn State
You'd better believe that they're talking National Championship in Happy Valley right now. The Nittany Lions do lose Tony Hunt but return 9 starters on offense. They'll have to reload on the defensive line, but should be great everywhere else. Mark down September 22 at Michigan as perhaps the definitive Big 10 game of the season.
15. Texas A&M
Got wiped out in the bowl game after Dennis Franchione had answered questions by beating Texas, but the Aggies return the talent to make a run at the Big 12 title in 2007. Stephen McGee will have a chance to become a household name running this offense, and an early non-conference date at Miami on September 15 could give them even more national attention.
14. California
Looks like it'll be two years in a row where the Bears are the higher ranked team when they meet the Vols. Marshawn Lynch went pro, but the offense still returns Nate Longshore, Justin Forsett, and DeSean Jackson. However, the front seven will be problematic on defense, and even though the secondary returns three, the defense loses its three best players in Brandon Mebane, Desmond Bishop, and Daymeion Hughes. The Cal-UT game on September 1 might be the biggest and most telling game of the opening week.
13. Wake Forest
The interesting thing about WF is that they were a year ahead of schedule in 2006. This fall, the Demon Deacons will return 9 starters on offense, including Riley Skinner, and 6 on defense. No joking, after Virginia Tech, these guys are the most talented team in the ACC. They host Nebraska on September 8.
12. Arkansas
No program went from such a high in late November to such a low in early January. The Pigs lost three of four down the stretch and had a chance to win all of them, had parents of the highly touted freshman class calling for meetings with the AD to discuss the offense, then saw one of them transfer before Gus Malzahn left the Arkansas offensive coordinator job for the Tulsa offensive coordinator job? I know you want to run your system, but you don't make a lateral move from SEC West Champion Arkansas, with every single one of your skill players returning, to Tulsa. If the progam balances itself, and finds an offensive line, look out again.
11. Wisconsin
After the quietest 12-1 season in college football history, what do the Badgers do for an encore? It starts with replacing John Stocco, but whoever it is will have an easy task: give it to PJ Hill and let him roll behind an offensive line returning four starters. The defense will be salty again. They won't miss Ohio State in the rotation this year either.
10. Oklahoma
This is probably high for the losers of the latest installment of the Game of the Century, and a team without Paul Thompson and Adrian Peterson. Still, 8 starters on offense, 7 on defense and one of the nation's best secondaries...and a September 8 date with Miami to see what they've got. The running game should be fine as it was in Peterson's absence.
9. Virginia Tech
When they get the bad taste of the Chick-fil-A Bowl out of their mouths, the folks in Blacksburg are going to realize they've got a real shot in 2007. They'll go as far as Sean Glennon can not get them beat, as he arguably did against Georgia. Branden Ore, Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan will help him out, and there will be no better LB duo than Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall in 2007. The schedule doesn't even include Wake Forest - never thought you'd hear that, eh? Biggest non-conference game of the season: Virginia Tech at LSU, September 8.
8. Ohio State
When a team gets beat 41-14 in the National Championship Game and then loses its QB, RB, and both starting WRs, this is about the best I can do. The defense will still be good (as long as they're not playing the spread option) and it's Ohio State, so they've got kids waiting in the wings. How will this program respond from taking a pasting like that?
7. Louisville
Brian Brohm's return re-sets the table in 2007 the same way it looked this time last year: the winner of Louisville vs. West Virginia should play for the National Championship. The trip to Kentucky will be more dangerous than usual, and the Cards are still looking to fill two non-conference dates (Utah comes to Papa John's on October 6, yay), but if they win at West Virginia, no one else should have the talent to beat them.
6. Texas
The questions for the Longhorns will revolve around the defense, as this offense should definitely score poins in bunches. Colt McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Limas Sweed will see to that. Texas didn't get away clean in the Big 12 in 2006, can they beat OU and A&M and get back to the title game in '07? And perhaps beyond? The pieces are there if this team grows up a little and regains its 2005 maturity.
5. West Virginia
Louisville is the defending Big East Champion and probably the better team, but West Virginia will be the sexier option with Pat White and Steve Slaton both back. The schedule will again be non-threatening, and as stated with the Cardinals: if they can win the showdown with U of L, they should be undefeated. They would probably then proceed to get murdered in the title game because they still have nothing resembling a championship defense.
4. Florida
When the Gators won the NCAA Basketball Championship, everyone decided to stay in school and go for the repeat. When Florida won the football title, Jarvis Moss, Brandon Siler, Reggie Nelson, and Ryan Smith all ran for the money. As a result, this team suddenly looks very human on defense, and will return only two starters. On the other side, Tim Tebow gets the steering wheel, with Percy Harvin and Andre Caldwell, who did decide to stick around, and four back on the offensive line. The NFL defections will quiet some of that "the Gators are here to stay for a long time" talk, given that they still play in the SEC, but don't discredit the defending National Champions. Florida is still plenty good, plenty fast, and certainly knows how to win.
3. LSU
Exit JaMarcus Russell, enter Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux. The winner of that spring battle will get the keys to what will easily be the SEC's most talented team (for the third year in a row, says I) with options to give the ball to Alley Broussard, Jacob Hester, and Early Doucet. Meanwhile, 8 starters return on defense, and the schedule drops a trip to Neyland Stadium for a home date with South Carolina. I'll say it again: biggest non-conference game of the season: Virginia Tech at LSU, September 8.
2. Michigan
When you watched the Rose Bowl, you saw the two most talented teams for 2007 squaring off, and it was clear who the victor was on that day. Still, with Ohio State's defections, Michigan will clearly be the Big 10 favorite in 2007, with Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Mario Manningham as the best 1-2-3 combo in all of college football. However, you've got holes on the offensive line, and the defense loses its biggest playmakers. I read somewhere that these guys will be end up being the most overrated team in 2007, this year's version of Notre Dame '06. And maybe so. You never really know with Michigan. We'll see...but it's there on paper.
1. Southern Cal
Even without Dwayne Jarrett, thanks to the NFL defections by JaMarcus Russell and Florida's defense, USC is unquestionably the best choice for preseason #1. We'll start with the nation's most overlooked defense, and the 10 starters they return. We'll continue with John David Booty, a stable of running backs, and the (projected) emergence of Patrick Turner as the #1 wide receiver. I challenge you to find a real weakness, and they're the only club that doesn't have a glaring one. Then, remember that they play in the Pac-10. The Trojans will play their two most difficult non-conference games on the road (at Nebraska 9/15, at Notre Dame 10/20), and showed last year they're capable of being beaten in conference. Without Jarrett, they don't stack up as a truly dominant club in preseason moreso than anyone else, but they're still easily the best in the field coming out of the gate.
Only 7.5 months, kids!
(CollegeFootballNews.com and NationalChamps.net are great sources of information, FYI)
25. Alabama
The Nick Saban factor will be enough to get the Tide into the preseason polls, along with plenty of returning starters capable of making noise immediately if they can win some big SEC games. 2007 could be John Parker Wilson's year to become a great SEC quarterback.
24. Nebraska
Zac Taylor out, Sam Keller in at quarterback for a team that should again be the easy favorite in the Big 12 North. Eight returning starters on offense surround Keller, but the defense returns only five.
23. Florida State
Remember when the Vols were ranked in this year's preseason polls after a horrible year? Same thing for FSU in '07, bolstered by their win over UCLA in the bowl game. Defense will return eight, offense returns everyone but Lorenzo Booker and Chris Davis at the skill positions. They can't lose as many close games in 2007, can they?
22. South Carolina
This is the year to legitimately start expecting things from Steve Spurrier's team. The early defection of Sidney Rice hurts, but you'd best believe the ballcoach will find some receivers. With Syvelle Newton's graduation, it appears the offense is in the firm grip of Blake Mitchell with Cory Boyd behind him in the running game, and the defense returns 10, including Casper and Jasper Brinkley. Only downside is the Cocks pickup a road date in Baton Rouge on the SEC slate.
21. Georgia
The Dawgs won't hurt much for Danny Ware's NFL defection with Kregg Lumpkin and Thomas Brown back, but Charles Johnson's loss at DE will sting. Matthew Stafford will also take snaps behind four new offensive linemen. UGA will be strong at secondary but the front seven will be full of questions - they'll be ranked out of respect for Mark Richt, but may not stay long...
20. Tennessee
Had the Vols beaten Penn State and kept Robert Meachem and Demetrice Morley around, you could bump this number up around seven or eight spots. As it stands, the Vols will have Erik Ainge and a plethora of talented running backs behind some decent offensive linemen, but no experienced wide receivers. Inexperience will also be a factor at defensive tackle, and a rotation must be established in the secondary to find the best places for Jonathan Hefney, Roshaun Fellows, Antonio Wardlow and others (recruiting will help here). LBs will be a strength. As always, the Vols will be good enough to win every game, and the schedule will be difficult enough to make them lose every game. We'll find out in September.
19. Boston College
A wild card based on the new coaching situation, but this is an offense loaded with seniors, including Matt Ryan and LV Whitworth, and a defense that returns 10 starters. The ACC will be wide open once again, and the Eagles will certainly be good enough to compete for the division crown.
18. Auburn
Brandon Cox returns but most of his weapons don't. Brad Lester will get most of the carries at RB, but only one offensive lineman returns. The defense will again have to carry the team, but this may be Auburn's least talented team in the last four years, and the schedule sends Auburn to Athens, Gainesville, and Baton Rouge.
17. UCLA
This I haven't seen before...UCLA returns 10 starters on offense, 10 starters on defense. The Bruins may have lost a little momentum from the Victory Bell win by losing to Florida State, but they'll still be loaded and they still play in a relatively weaker conference. The Bruins will look to supplant Oregon and join California as the annual runners-up in the Pac-10.
16. Penn State
You'd better believe that they're talking National Championship in Happy Valley right now. The Nittany Lions do lose Tony Hunt but return 9 starters on offense. They'll have to reload on the defensive line, but should be great everywhere else. Mark down September 22 at Michigan as perhaps the definitive Big 10 game of the season.
15. Texas A&M
Got wiped out in the bowl game after Dennis Franchione had answered questions by beating Texas, but the Aggies return the talent to make a run at the Big 12 title in 2007. Stephen McGee will have a chance to become a household name running this offense, and an early non-conference date at Miami on September 15 could give them even more national attention.
14. California
Looks like it'll be two years in a row where the Bears are the higher ranked team when they meet the Vols. Marshawn Lynch went pro, but the offense still returns Nate Longshore, Justin Forsett, and DeSean Jackson. However, the front seven will be problematic on defense, and even though the secondary returns three, the defense loses its three best players in Brandon Mebane, Desmond Bishop, and Daymeion Hughes. The Cal-UT game on September 1 might be the biggest and most telling game of the opening week.
13. Wake Forest
The interesting thing about WF is that they were a year ahead of schedule in 2006. This fall, the Demon Deacons will return 9 starters on offense, including Riley Skinner, and 6 on defense. No joking, after Virginia Tech, these guys are the most talented team in the ACC. They host Nebraska on September 8.
12. Arkansas
No program went from such a high in late November to such a low in early January. The Pigs lost three of four down the stretch and had a chance to win all of them, had parents of the highly touted freshman class calling for meetings with the AD to discuss the offense, then saw one of them transfer before Gus Malzahn left the Arkansas offensive coordinator job for the Tulsa offensive coordinator job? I know you want to run your system, but you don't make a lateral move from SEC West Champion Arkansas, with every single one of your skill players returning, to Tulsa. If the progam balances itself, and finds an offensive line, look out again.
11. Wisconsin
After the quietest 12-1 season in college football history, what do the Badgers do for an encore? It starts with replacing John Stocco, but whoever it is will have an easy task: give it to PJ Hill and let him roll behind an offensive line returning four starters. The defense will be salty again. They won't miss Ohio State in the rotation this year either.
10. Oklahoma
This is probably high for the losers of the latest installment of the Game of the Century, and a team without Paul Thompson and Adrian Peterson. Still, 8 starters on offense, 7 on defense and one of the nation's best secondaries...and a September 8 date with Miami to see what they've got. The running game should be fine as it was in Peterson's absence.
9. Virginia Tech
When they get the bad taste of the Chick-fil-A Bowl out of their mouths, the folks in Blacksburg are going to realize they've got a real shot in 2007. They'll go as far as Sean Glennon can not get them beat, as he arguably did against Georgia. Branden Ore, Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan will help him out, and there will be no better LB duo than Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall in 2007. The schedule doesn't even include Wake Forest - never thought you'd hear that, eh? Biggest non-conference game of the season: Virginia Tech at LSU, September 8.
8. Ohio State
When a team gets beat 41-14 in the National Championship Game and then loses its QB, RB, and both starting WRs, this is about the best I can do. The defense will still be good (as long as they're not playing the spread option) and it's Ohio State, so they've got kids waiting in the wings. How will this program respond from taking a pasting like that?
7. Louisville
Brian Brohm's return re-sets the table in 2007 the same way it looked this time last year: the winner of Louisville vs. West Virginia should play for the National Championship. The trip to Kentucky will be more dangerous than usual, and the Cards are still looking to fill two non-conference dates (Utah comes to Papa John's on October 6, yay), but if they win at West Virginia, no one else should have the talent to beat them.
6. Texas
The questions for the Longhorns will revolve around the defense, as this offense should definitely score poins in bunches. Colt McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Limas Sweed will see to that. Texas didn't get away clean in the Big 12 in 2006, can they beat OU and A&M and get back to the title game in '07? And perhaps beyond? The pieces are there if this team grows up a little and regains its 2005 maturity.
5. West Virginia
Louisville is the defending Big East Champion and probably the better team, but West Virginia will be the sexier option with Pat White and Steve Slaton both back. The schedule will again be non-threatening, and as stated with the Cardinals: if they can win the showdown with U of L, they should be undefeated. They would probably then proceed to get murdered in the title game because they still have nothing resembling a championship defense.
4. Florida
When the Gators won the NCAA Basketball Championship, everyone decided to stay in school and go for the repeat. When Florida won the football title, Jarvis Moss, Brandon Siler, Reggie Nelson, and Ryan Smith all ran for the money. As a result, this team suddenly looks very human on defense, and will return only two starters. On the other side, Tim Tebow gets the steering wheel, with Percy Harvin and Andre Caldwell, who did decide to stick around, and four back on the offensive line. The NFL defections will quiet some of that "the Gators are here to stay for a long time" talk, given that they still play in the SEC, but don't discredit the defending National Champions. Florida is still plenty good, plenty fast, and certainly knows how to win.
3. LSU
Exit JaMarcus Russell, enter Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux. The winner of that spring battle will get the keys to what will easily be the SEC's most talented team (for the third year in a row, says I) with options to give the ball to Alley Broussard, Jacob Hester, and Early Doucet. Meanwhile, 8 starters return on defense, and the schedule drops a trip to Neyland Stadium for a home date with South Carolina. I'll say it again: biggest non-conference game of the season: Virginia Tech at LSU, September 8.
2. Michigan
When you watched the Rose Bowl, you saw the two most talented teams for 2007 squaring off, and it was clear who the victor was on that day. Still, with Ohio State's defections, Michigan will clearly be the Big 10 favorite in 2007, with Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Mario Manningham as the best 1-2-3 combo in all of college football. However, you've got holes on the offensive line, and the defense loses its biggest playmakers. I read somewhere that these guys will be end up being the most overrated team in 2007, this year's version of Notre Dame '06. And maybe so. You never really know with Michigan. We'll see...but it's there on paper.
1. Southern Cal
Even without Dwayne Jarrett, thanks to the NFL defections by JaMarcus Russell and Florida's defense, USC is unquestionably the best choice for preseason #1. We'll start with the nation's most overlooked defense, and the 10 starters they return. We'll continue with John David Booty, a stable of running backs, and the (projected) emergence of Patrick Turner as the #1 wide receiver. I challenge you to find a real weakness, and they're the only club that doesn't have a glaring one. Then, remember that they play in the Pac-10. The Trojans will play their two most difficult non-conference games on the road (at Nebraska 9/15, at Notre Dame 10/20), and showed last year they're capable of being beaten in conference. Without Jarrett, they don't stack up as a truly dominant club in preseason moreso than anyone else, but they're still easily the best in the field coming out of the gate.
Only 7.5 months, kids!
Monday, January 15, 2007
More mixed emotions...
After a 9-0 start and a 3-4 finish, in Peyton Manning's 7th trip to the playoffs in a year where they weren't the favorite, Indianapolis has finally landed an AFC Championship Game in the RCA Dome. In a wide open postseason, Indy has turned in two great performances from a defense that was questionable at best two weeks ago, and thanks to New England taking advantage of San Diego's four turnovers, the Colts - 9-0 at home this year - are sixty minutes and 72 degrees with a roof over their heads away from the Super Bowl.
And I'm glad it's the Patriots. Manning's teams are going to have a shot to run to the Super Bowl every year. But they won't always have a chance to knock off their nemesis in the AFC Championship Game. The chips won't always fall this way, to give Manning a chance to turn a "can't beat Tom Brady in the playoffs" storyline into the NFL's best individual rivalry. But it's only a rivalry if it's two-sided. Even though the Colts have beaten New England in the regular season in consecutive years now, these are the ones that really count. And the playoff count is Brady 2 - Manning 0.
Manning's teams have run hot and cold in the playoffs. In his first appearance in January of 2000, with Manning in only his second year and the explosive Colts the talk of the NFL, they ran into Eddie George and the Titans one week off the Music City Miracle and lost in the Dome in the divisional round when they were heavily favored. Then they got conservative in the Wild Card round the next year and lost in overtime to the Dolphins. And the low point two years later, the 41-0 beatdown at the hands of the New York Jets.
But the following year, Manning - who carried the "never won a playoff game" stigma on his back and his face - started hot by torching the Denver Broncos 41-10 in the Wild Card, and then outscoring Kansas City 38-31 in the Divisional round at Arrowhead in a game with no punts.
But just when the Colts had finally arrived, Manning met Brady. First the Patriots beat the Colts 24-14 (Manning: 4 picks) in the AFC Championship Game. Then, following the 2004 regular season and another decimation of the Broncos in the Wild Card, the Patriots beat the Colts 20-3 in the Divisional. When that one was piggybacked with Pittsburgh's memorable upset at the RCA Dome last year, the negative stigma returned.
It stayed with the Colts into this postseason, when they went from Super Bowl favorites in Week 11 to a popular pick to lose in the Wild Card seven weeks later. The Colts were 3-6 in the playoffs under Manning. They had no run defense.
And it hasn't been what you thought it would be. In the 23-8 win over Kansas City, Manning - even though he was 30 of 38 - threw three interceptions. But the story was the defense. In the 15-6 win at Baltimore, Manning was labeled as "efficient" but the Colts should've been able to breathe much easier in that game. And again the defense was the story.
Meanwhile, the Patriots - who lost David Givens to the Titans and Deion Branch to Seattle, and field a receiving corps of four ex-Florida Gators - made the plays to beat the NY Jets, and then survived three Brady interceptions to win at 14-2 San Diego. The Colts aren't playing like the Colts, and the Patriots aren't playing like the Patriots, but here we are.
Much like the Yankees and Red Sox, even if you're not a fan of either of these two teams, you've got a side. You're a Manning guy or a Brady guy. Tom Brady - even if he has beaten the Colts twice (and more importantly to me, the Titans once in the playoffs and eliminated them from the race in Week 17 this year) and even if he is from Michigan - there's something about him that I like. Manning is attractive - outside of Indianapolis and Knoxville - to fans who like 6'5", 230 pound quarter backs with laser rocket arms. Manning wins with the stat boys, Brady charms you with personality.
So you've got storylines again coming into this AFC Championship Game. But if New England wins, that story will continue to be "Manning can't win the big one" and "Manning can't beat Brady". Those stories will get more painful each passing year. But should the Colts win - regardless of what they did in the Super Bowl - suddenly you would have a real rivalry between the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. They have the right balance between them as people to make the rivalry work, even if they like each other in real life. It would be good for the NFL.
So obviously, I'll be pulling for Manning. But the mixed emotions will come four hours earlier in Chicago. I want to see the Colts in the Super Bowl. I don't want to see them playing the New Orleans Saints.
Now let's be clear. If this was the Titans we were talking about, it wouldn't matter. But the Colts aren't my team - they just have the golden son playing quarterback for them, and while I hope next year Vince Young and the boys in shades of blue take the AFC South title from them, I have no hesitation about pulling hard for Manning to win the Super Bowl this year. But I have great hesitation about pulling against the Saints. If New Orleans goes to Chicago and wins on Sunday afternoon, it doesn't matter if it's the Patriots or the Colts on the other side two weeks later, everyone in America that isn't from Boston or Indy will want to see the Saints win the Super Bowl. And I won't blame them. That's not what I want to see Manning going up against in his first trip to the Super Bowl.
The Colts-Bears matchup would be fun. I'll feel all nostalgic cheeing against Sexy Rexy, who's in that tough-to-crack list of quarterbacks that I both hate and have tremendous respect for from their college days (along with Jay Barker, Danny Wuerfful and David Greene). You'll get that offense vs. defense scenario. People would watch.
But please, no Colts-Saints. Let's keep things simple with the good guys and the bad guys.
For now, it'll be fun to look ahead to Manning and Brady. And maybe New Orleans will run out of luck in Chicago. The field remains wide open, as all four of these teams can easily win the whole thing, and the Bears - who are the highest seeded team left - seem like the ones least likely to get it done. So we'll see what happens. There can be only one.
For Manning, it's only his second AFC Championship Game and his first one at home. And while anyone who says he's never won a big game is smoking something, it's undeniable that he's never been to the Super Bowl, and it's undeniable that his legacy will be tarnished if the Colts never get there (and win, but that's for next week). He needs to play better on the biggest stage than he has the last two weeks. He's lit up the Patriots the last two times he saw them. Is this the year the Colts finally make it?
("Cut that meat! Cut that meat!")
And I'm glad it's the Patriots. Manning's teams are going to have a shot to run to the Super Bowl every year. But they won't always have a chance to knock off their nemesis in the AFC Championship Game. The chips won't always fall this way, to give Manning a chance to turn a "can't beat Tom Brady in the playoffs" storyline into the NFL's best individual rivalry. But it's only a rivalry if it's two-sided. Even though the Colts have beaten New England in the regular season in consecutive years now, these are the ones that really count. And the playoff count is Brady 2 - Manning 0.
Manning's teams have run hot and cold in the playoffs. In his first appearance in January of 2000, with Manning in only his second year and the explosive Colts the talk of the NFL, they ran into Eddie George and the Titans one week off the Music City Miracle and lost in the Dome in the divisional round when they were heavily favored. Then they got conservative in the Wild Card round the next year and lost in overtime to the Dolphins. And the low point two years later, the 41-0 beatdown at the hands of the New York Jets.
But the following year, Manning - who carried the "never won a playoff game" stigma on his back and his face - started hot by torching the Denver Broncos 41-10 in the Wild Card, and then outscoring Kansas City 38-31 in the Divisional round at Arrowhead in a game with no punts.
But just when the Colts had finally arrived, Manning met Brady. First the Patriots beat the Colts 24-14 (Manning: 4 picks) in the AFC Championship Game. Then, following the 2004 regular season and another decimation of the Broncos in the Wild Card, the Patriots beat the Colts 20-3 in the Divisional. When that one was piggybacked with Pittsburgh's memorable upset at the RCA Dome last year, the negative stigma returned.
It stayed with the Colts into this postseason, when they went from Super Bowl favorites in Week 11 to a popular pick to lose in the Wild Card seven weeks later. The Colts were 3-6 in the playoffs under Manning. They had no run defense.
And it hasn't been what you thought it would be. In the 23-8 win over Kansas City, Manning - even though he was 30 of 38 - threw three interceptions. But the story was the defense. In the 15-6 win at Baltimore, Manning was labeled as "efficient" but the Colts should've been able to breathe much easier in that game. And again the defense was the story.
Meanwhile, the Patriots - who lost David Givens to the Titans and Deion Branch to Seattle, and field a receiving corps of four ex-Florida Gators - made the plays to beat the NY Jets, and then survived three Brady interceptions to win at 14-2 San Diego. The Colts aren't playing like the Colts, and the Patriots aren't playing like the Patriots, but here we are.
Much like the Yankees and Red Sox, even if you're not a fan of either of these two teams, you've got a side. You're a Manning guy or a Brady guy. Tom Brady - even if he has beaten the Colts twice (and more importantly to me, the Titans once in the playoffs and eliminated them from the race in Week 17 this year) and even if he is from Michigan - there's something about him that I like. Manning is attractive - outside of Indianapolis and Knoxville - to fans who like 6'5", 230 pound quarter backs with laser rocket arms. Manning wins with the stat boys, Brady charms you with personality.
So you've got storylines again coming into this AFC Championship Game. But if New England wins, that story will continue to be "Manning can't win the big one" and "Manning can't beat Brady". Those stories will get more painful each passing year. But should the Colts win - regardless of what they did in the Super Bowl - suddenly you would have a real rivalry between the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. They have the right balance between them as people to make the rivalry work, even if they like each other in real life. It would be good for the NFL.
So obviously, I'll be pulling for Manning. But the mixed emotions will come four hours earlier in Chicago. I want to see the Colts in the Super Bowl. I don't want to see them playing the New Orleans Saints.
Now let's be clear. If this was the Titans we were talking about, it wouldn't matter. But the Colts aren't my team - they just have the golden son playing quarterback for them, and while I hope next year Vince Young and the boys in shades of blue take the AFC South title from them, I have no hesitation about pulling hard for Manning to win the Super Bowl this year. But I have great hesitation about pulling against the Saints. If New Orleans goes to Chicago and wins on Sunday afternoon, it doesn't matter if it's the Patriots or the Colts on the other side two weeks later, everyone in America that isn't from Boston or Indy will want to see the Saints win the Super Bowl. And I won't blame them. That's not what I want to see Manning going up against in his first trip to the Super Bowl.
The Colts-Bears matchup would be fun. I'll feel all nostalgic cheeing against Sexy Rexy, who's in that tough-to-crack list of quarterbacks that I both hate and have tremendous respect for from their college days (along with Jay Barker, Danny Wuerfful and David Greene). You'll get that offense vs. defense scenario. People would watch.
But please, no Colts-Saints. Let's keep things simple with the good guys and the bad guys.
For now, it'll be fun to look ahead to Manning and Brady. And maybe New Orleans will run out of luck in Chicago. The field remains wide open, as all four of these teams can easily win the whole thing, and the Bears - who are the highest seeded team left - seem like the ones least likely to get it done. So we'll see what happens. There can be only one.
For Manning, it's only his second AFC Championship Game and his first one at home. And while anyone who says he's never won a big game is smoking something, it's undeniable that he's never been to the Super Bowl, and it's undeniable that his legacy will be tarnished if the Colts never get there (and win, but that's for next week). He needs to play better on the biggest stage than he has the last two weeks. He's lit up the Patriots the last two times he saw them. Is this the year the Colts finally make it?
("Cut that meat! Cut that meat!")
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
A night of mixed emotions
I haven't had much luck with recent BCS National Championship games. I'm usually out of town at a major church event the first week of January, which I skipped a session of to watch the highly anticipated USC-Oklahoma game in 2004, which turned into a colossal waste of time. So in 2005, I vowed to learn from 2004's mistake and did not skip the session, and ended up missing arguably the greatest college football game of all time between USC and Texas.
With the game moved to January 8 this year, I found myself not even really wanting to watch it in the hours before kickoff. If Ohio State wins, then the SEC finishes an average 5-4 in bowl games and I get to hear an entire offseason of how the Big 10 is the dominant conference in the game. If Florida wins, I still can't fully bask in the SEC supremacy because the Vols lost to Penn State, and it means watching your most hated rival win the national championship.
I end up watching it because I feel I'd be betraying myself as a college football fan if I don't, and like many, I get that wry smile on my face when Teddy Ginn races the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. When Florida and Nebraska squared off for the title in 1995, I was reluctantly cheering for Florida for the goodwill of the SEC, but when Nebraska started winning, it quickly became "alright, if you're going to win, then go ahead and kill them while you're at it." And I enjoyed it.
So I was sitting here thinking bad thoughts about the Gators and envisioning a blowout. Then I started envisioning another classic college football game (I missed Boise State and Oklahoma for a late showing of The Good Shepherd in Knoxville on my vacation, but did get home just in time to see Chris Myers spoil Ian Johnson's marriage proposal) throughout the first quarter as the two teams kept trading scores until it was 21-14.
With Florida ahead 24-14, I made the mistake of turning to Monday Night Raw - even though I have TiVo - for a few costly minutes. When I turned back, the most important phase of the game had happened with the ridiculous 4th down attempt by the Buckeyes, followed by three points, a Troy Smith fumble, a Gator touchdown, and it was over.
First off, let me offer a giant congratulations to Florida. That performance was one worthy of a national champion, and I can't imagine how much fun it must be to hold both the football and basketball trophies at the same time.
But even today, the morning after, I still have mixed emotions about the whole thing. Granted, if Tennessee holds up their end against Penn State, then the SEC is 7-2 and this blog is about the overall dominance of the SEC, especially against the Big 10. But I can't write that one today.
But it's also not the disgust I felt when the Gators won their title in 1996. Back then, Florida was the unbeatable Goliath in the SEC, but never went all the way and wasn't going to in 96 until Texas upset Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and opened the door for an FSU-FLA rematch in the Sugar Bowl. As Florida ran up the points in that game, I remember a very tangible knot in my stomach. It made me mad that they had a trophy.
Tennessee winning theirs in 1998 helped ease some of that. When Florida won the basketball title in April, it was even somewhat enjoyable, knowing that the Vols had beaten them twice. So when Florida wins the whole thing last night, they do so not as Steve Spurrier's unbeatable juggernaut, but to me, as one of several SEC teams who are capable of hoisting the crystal ball each January.
Florida destroyed Ohio State, no doubt about that. The Gators also beat the Vols in Neyland Stadium 21-20. When that happened, my thought was that Florida was a team with a great defense but a quarterback not suited to run its offense, and with the most difficult schedule in America, no way they get away clean. And they didn't, losing at Auburn.
The essential question here becomes, was Florida underachieving all year until the title game, or were they simply consistently good enough in the nation's toughest conference? I believe it's the second, and continues to give credible evidence to the thought that the era of the dominant programs is coming to a close.
Florida beat Tennessee 21-20, trailed in the 4th quarter against Alabama, beat LSU thanks to the Tigers' continual need to totally self-destruct when they play Florida, lost at Auburn, beat Georgia 21-14, beat Vanderbilt 25-19, needed a blocked last second field goal to beat South Carolina 17-16, and beat Florida State 21-14 in the regular season. Was Florida lucky? Yeah, but you need to be. They were also good.
If you play in the SEC, you don't have to be dominant - and in fact, it's getting impossible to be. Kirk Herbstreit talked about how Florida was ahead of schedule and is supposed to be better and better in each of the next few years. Maybe so, but will they stay as consistent and keep winning these close SEC wars every week? Nope.
I give all the credit in the world to Urban Meyer. You've got five head coaches with rings (counting Tommy Tuberville and Auburn in 04) in the SEC, plus Mark Richt, plus Houston Nutt, plus an LSU program that's still trying to figure out what it thinks about Les Miles. Meyer - and I loved the fact that he allowed himself to show emotion with 3:00 left and the Florida victory in hand - isn't the hated figure like Steve Spurrier. He's respected.
The reality is, in August of 2007, you'll find championship expectations in Tuscaloosa, Fayetteville, Auburn, Gainesville, Athens, Baton Rouge, Columbia, and Knoxville. You'll find improved teams in Lexington and Nashville. You'll find the state of Mississippi just trying to hang on. Anybody - coach, player, fan, broadcaster, "expert", whoever - who is expecting any program in this conference (and soon, all of college football) to win multiple championships consecutively is delusional. Florida may be more talented and experienced in 2007. That doesn't mean anything - I still think that LSU is the most talented SEC team right now.
1999 Tennessee would easily out-talent 1998 Tennessee. And the 99 result was 9-3.
You don't have to be dominant. No one will be - Florida wasn't this year in the SEC. You just have to be good every week. Every single one of them. And so in 07, maybe you'll see LSU or Florida go 12-1 again and make the breaks they don't get, and play for it all. But I fear that, more and more, we're approaching the days where all the elite teams in the conference go 9-3 and we all knock each other off.
Once the exodus to the NFL is over, you can look towards 2007 and begin to try and clear the haze in the crystal ball. The future is bright for the SEC, but it's also so competitive that it may darken the skies for all involved. We'll find out.
For now, Florida is king. The attention quickly turns to basketball - which is great to be able to do these days in Knoxville - and when the SEC teams line it up the first week of September, you'll have more high hopes than ever. Reality will be cold and hard for many of those teams in the fall. But just as it's never been more true that the very best football is played here, it's also never been more true that every game will count.
College football is a beautiful thing.
With the game moved to January 8 this year, I found myself not even really wanting to watch it in the hours before kickoff. If Ohio State wins, then the SEC finishes an average 5-4 in bowl games and I get to hear an entire offseason of how the Big 10 is the dominant conference in the game. If Florida wins, I still can't fully bask in the SEC supremacy because the Vols lost to Penn State, and it means watching your most hated rival win the national championship.
I end up watching it because I feel I'd be betraying myself as a college football fan if I don't, and like many, I get that wry smile on my face when Teddy Ginn races the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. When Florida and Nebraska squared off for the title in 1995, I was reluctantly cheering for Florida for the goodwill of the SEC, but when Nebraska started winning, it quickly became "alright, if you're going to win, then go ahead and kill them while you're at it." And I enjoyed it.
So I was sitting here thinking bad thoughts about the Gators and envisioning a blowout. Then I started envisioning another classic college football game (I missed Boise State and Oklahoma for a late showing of The Good Shepherd in Knoxville on my vacation, but did get home just in time to see Chris Myers spoil Ian Johnson's marriage proposal) throughout the first quarter as the two teams kept trading scores until it was 21-14.
With Florida ahead 24-14, I made the mistake of turning to Monday Night Raw - even though I have TiVo - for a few costly minutes. When I turned back, the most important phase of the game had happened with the ridiculous 4th down attempt by the Buckeyes, followed by three points, a Troy Smith fumble, a Gator touchdown, and it was over.
First off, let me offer a giant congratulations to Florida. That performance was one worthy of a national champion, and I can't imagine how much fun it must be to hold both the football and basketball trophies at the same time.
But even today, the morning after, I still have mixed emotions about the whole thing. Granted, if Tennessee holds up their end against Penn State, then the SEC is 7-2 and this blog is about the overall dominance of the SEC, especially against the Big 10. But I can't write that one today.
But it's also not the disgust I felt when the Gators won their title in 1996. Back then, Florida was the unbeatable Goliath in the SEC, but never went all the way and wasn't going to in 96 until Texas upset Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and opened the door for an FSU-FLA rematch in the Sugar Bowl. As Florida ran up the points in that game, I remember a very tangible knot in my stomach. It made me mad that they had a trophy.
Tennessee winning theirs in 1998 helped ease some of that. When Florida won the basketball title in April, it was even somewhat enjoyable, knowing that the Vols had beaten them twice. So when Florida wins the whole thing last night, they do so not as Steve Spurrier's unbeatable juggernaut, but to me, as one of several SEC teams who are capable of hoisting the crystal ball each January.
Florida destroyed Ohio State, no doubt about that. The Gators also beat the Vols in Neyland Stadium 21-20. When that happened, my thought was that Florida was a team with a great defense but a quarterback not suited to run its offense, and with the most difficult schedule in America, no way they get away clean. And they didn't, losing at Auburn.
The essential question here becomes, was Florida underachieving all year until the title game, or were they simply consistently good enough in the nation's toughest conference? I believe it's the second, and continues to give credible evidence to the thought that the era of the dominant programs is coming to a close.
Florida beat Tennessee 21-20, trailed in the 4th quarter against Alabama, beat LSU thanks to the Tigers' continual need to totally self-destruct when they play Florida, lost at Auburn, beat Georgia 21-14, beat Vanderbilt 25-19, needed a blocked last second field goal to beat South Carolina 17-16, and beat Florida State 21-14 in the regular season. Was Florida lucky? Yeah, but you need to be. They were also good.
If you play in the SEC, you don't have to be dominant - and in fact, it's getting impossible to be. Kirk Herbstreit talked about how Florida was ahead of schedule and is supposed to be better and better in each of the next few years. Maybe so, but will they stay as consistent and keep winning these close SEC wars every week? Nope.
I give all the credit in the world to Urban Meyer. You've got five head coaches with rings (counting Tommy Tuberville and Auburn in 04) in the SEC, plus Mark Richt, plus Houston Nutt, plus an LSU program that's still trying to figure out what it thinks about Les Miles. Meyer - and I loved the fact that he allowed himself to show emotion with 3:00 left and the Florida victory in hand - isn't the hated figure like Steve Spurrier. He's respected.
The reality is, in August of 2007, you'll find championship expectations in Tuscaloosa, Fayetteville, Auburn, Gainesville, Athens, Baton Rouge, Columbia, and Knoxville. You'll find improved teams in Lexington and Nashville. You'll find the state of Mississippi just trying to hang on. Anybody - coach, player, fan, broadcaster, "expert", whoever - who is expecting any program in this conference (and soon, all of college football) to win multiple championships consecutively is delusional. Florida may be more talented and experienced in 2007. That doesn't mean anything - I still think that LSU is the most talented SEC team right now.
1999 Tennessee would easily out-talent 1998 Tennessee. And the 99 result was 9-3.
You don't have to be dominant. No one will be - Florida wasn't this year in the SEC. You just have to be good every week. Every single one of them. And so in 07, maybe you'll see LSU or Florida go 12-1 again and make the breaks they don't get, and play for it all. But I fear that, more and more, we're approaching the days where all the elite teams in the conference go 9-3 and we all knock each other off.
Once the exodus to the NFL is over, you can look towards 2007 and begin to try and clear the haze in the crystal ball. The future is bright for the SEC, but it's also so competitive that it may darken the skies for all involved. We'll find out.
For now, Florida is king. The attention quickly turns to basketball - which is great to be able to do these days in Knoxville - and when the SEC teams line it up the first week of September, you'll have more high hopes than ever. Reality will be cold and hard for many of those teams in the fall. But just as it's never been more true that the very best football is played here, it's also never been more true that every game will count.
College football is a beautiful thing.
Friday, January 05, 2007
2007 SEC Basketball Preview
Tired of hearing about every waking moment in the life of Nick Saban? Ready to move on from those poor bowl performances in Tuscaloosa, Fayetteville and Knoxville? The SEC Basketball season is here, starting tomorrow, to officially mark the end of fall and the beginning of winter in the south. Here's a look at where all 12 teams stand going into the conference season:
(RPI numbers found here)
Alabama
13-1 - AP Ranking: 8 - RPI Ranking: 13
Big Wins: Iowa, Xavier, NC State, Oklahoma - Losses: Notre Dame
Key Players: F Richard Hendrix, F Jermareo Davidson, F Alonzo Gee, G Ronald Steele
The Crimson Tide are talented enough to win a deep conference and are one of five SEC teams that are considered to be safe bets for the Dance. This is a big, well coached, experienced team with the 6'8" Hendrix and 6'10" Davidson, and Ronald Steele is one of the two or three best guards in the entire league. Alabama will get a stiff test early, opening at Arkansas on Saturday and then coming home to play LSU on Tuesday night. Simply put, Alabama is good enough to beat anyone they play, and Mark Gottfried's teams have a history of strong tournament runs. Watch out for these guys, they could be a huge factor in the grand scheme.
Arkansas
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 22
Big Wins: Southern Illinois, West Virginia - Losses: Missouri, Texas Tech, Texas
Key Players: G Patrick Beverley, F Charles Thomas, F Sonny Weems, G Gary Ervin
The Pigs were/are just on the cusp of the "sure bet for the Dance" category, but are projected by most to be the sixth SEC team to make the field. Despite going 0-for-Big 12 competition, the Hogs come into SEC play having won three in a row, and get Alabama at home tomorrow with a chance to make an instant impact. Stan Heath has an opportunity to move Arkansas into the upper tier of the conference, and needs to take advantage of it.
Auburn
10-5 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 163
Big Wins: none - Losses: Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, Pitt, Texas A&M, Southern Miss
Key Players: F Korvotney Barber, G Rasheem Barrett, G Quantez Robertson
Until Tuesday night's loss to Southern Miss, you could make an interesting case for Auburn, as their other four losses are to Top 15 teams. The Tigers have beaten the rest of their schedule, but the most impressive win might be 8-7 South Alabama, and it goes downhill from there. This is an incredibly young team - all three key players up there are sophomores, and the roster does not include a senior. They'll live and learn and may get better, but the rugged SEC will also take its toll on them along the way.
Florida
13-2 - AP Ranking: 3 - RPI Ranking: 52
Big Wins: Ohio State - Losses: Kansas, Florida State
Key Players: G Taurean Green, FC Al Horford, F Corey Brewer, FC Joakim Noah
My biggest question about the defending national champions is boredom. When Florida comes ready to play, you get great basketball - they lost 82-80 to Kansas and absolutely throttled Ohio State. The Gators also lost to FSU and it was way too close with UAB. The 16 game SEC schedule will test them every night, and while you absolutely must consider Florida the conference favorite, and their best is better than anyone else's (and you'll see it in Knoxville and Lexington for sure), don't expect this team to go 16-0. Still, they might be the best team in the entire country.
Georgia
8-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 111
Big Wins: Wake Forest, Gonzaga - Losses: W. Kentucky, GT, Clemson, Wisconsin
Key Players: G Levi Stukes, G Mike Mercer, F Takais Brown
Back on December 19, the Dawgs were 8-1 and had won seven in a row after the early loss to WKU, and beat Gonzaga by 13 points. But Christmas was highly unkind, as Georgia lost at Georgia Tech, lost at Clemson, and lost at home to Wisconsin, all double-digit L's. Granted, those are three very good teams, but Georgia's reward for coming into SEC season on a three game slide? They open at Florida. This is a young team outside of Levi Stukes, but may have the best chance of all of the lower-tier SEC teams to make a run. With the right breaks and the right wins, could easily get into the dance conversation. This is a program on the rise.
Kentucky
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 10
Big Wins: Indiana, Louisville - Losses: UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina
Key Players: C Randolph Morris, G Ramel Bradley, G Joe Crawford, F Bobby Perry
The Cats had a rough stretch at the start of the season, losing to UCLA by only five but then getting rocked by Memphis 80-63, and then turning around and losing 75-63 at Chapel Hill two games later. I'm sure they were calling for Tubby's head at that point, but now the Cats have won seven straight, and beating Rick Pitino's Louisville squad always makes it better. They're Kentucky, so they're in the title conversation. They need the younger guys to grow up quickly and help the returning starters - if you know who freshmen Jodie Meeks and Derrick Jasper are by February, that means the Cats are doing well. Last year was the first time that UK played on Thursday in the SEC Tournament, and with Florida at the top and Tennessee looking like no fluke, the Cats are finding themselves in a tougher fight than ever in the SEC. But they're Kentucky, which means they'll win games, compete for the conference title, get in the dance with a favorable seed, and call for Tubby's job.
LSU
10-3 - AP Ranking: 14 - RPI Ranking: 75
Big Wins: Texas A&M - Losses: Wichita State, Texas, Washington
Key Players: F Glen Davis, F Tasmin Mitchell, G Terry Martin, G Garrett Temple
The best regular season team in the SEC last year, the Tigers also play a key nonconference game against UConn tomorrow night. The loss to Texas was on the road and by one point, but the 16 point drubbing at UDub is more troubling. Either way, the Tigers may be in the best spot to win the SEC because they don't play in the Kentucky/Florida/Tennessee loaded East and - on paper - will only have to finish better than Alabama to win their division. Glen Davis is averaging 20 points and 11 boards per game and might be the best player in the SEC. Not only should the Tigers go dancing, they have the team in place to be thinking about a top three seed. At minimum, if they're playing on Thursday at the SEC Tournament, they'll be considered a disappointment.
Mississippi
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 106
Big Wins: none - Losses: UConn, Memphis, St. Louis
Key Players: G Bam Doyne, G Clarence Sanders, C Dwayne Curtis, G Todd Abernathy
Much like Auburn, Ole Miss hasn't beaten anyone but hasn't been really upset either, don't sleep on St. Louis. The Rebels will join Auburn and MSU as the lower-tier SEC West teams who will all have a shot to make some noise. While no one expects this team to go dancing, they are capable of some surprises here and there. Unlike Auburn and Georgia, this isn't a young team with only upperclassmen getting more than 20 minutes per game. So the good news is they're experienced, the bad news is these juniors/seniors haven't been talented enough to make Ole Miss relevant in the last few years. We'll see.
Mississippi State
9-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 88
Big Wins: Charlotte, Miami - Losses: Winthrop, Clemson, George Mason, Missouri
Key Players: GF Jamont Gordon, G Barry Stewart, FC Charles Rhodes
The Bulldogs are the most intriguing of all the lower-tier SEC teams, which starts with Jamont Gordon and his 15 points and 8 boards per game. Barry Stewart is a freshman scoring in double figures and is second on the team in minutes. Same rules apply here as with Ole Miss and Auburn - they can finish 4th, or they can finish 6th, and no one would be surprised. Of all the lower six teams in the SEC who could possibly make an NCAA run, Mississippi State is the most likely to wear the glass slipper from the West. While it's a stretch to call Charlotte and Miami big wins, the losses are acceptable (but the last two, on the road at George Mason and Missou, have come in the last week). The Bulldogs will open on Sunday in Knoxville.
South Carolina
10-2 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 61
Big Wins: Southern Cal, Charleston, Princeton - Losses: UC-Irvine, Clemson
Key Players: G Tre Kelley, F Brandon Wallace, GF Bryce Sheldon
Your two-time defending NIT Champions want to take the next step, but will have to do so without emotional leader Renaldo Balkman. Still, the three players listed up there, plus a strong freshman class make for a formidable opponent. Kelley, Wallace and Sheldon are experienced at winning and winning at tournament time. They apparently grew up a lot after the strange 15 point loss at UC-Irvine in the second game of the season. Well coached, talented enough, could easily slide into the dance.
Tennessee
12-2 - AP Ranking: 19 - RPI Ranking: 17
Big Wins: Memphis, Oklahoma State, Texas - Losses: Butler, North Carolina
Key Players: G Chris Lofton, GF Dane Bradshaw, F JaJuan Smith, F Duke Crews
The defending SEC East Champions bring the biggest scoring threat (and arguably the SEC's best player) in the conference to the floor each night in Chris Lofton. Tennessee won't sneak up on anyone this year, though they are young, having answered questions already with three consecutive big wins over teams that have beaten other SEC schools. Bruce Pearl's system will see opponents who will be better prepared to face it in 2007, and the Vols are young enough to lose every night and talented enough to win every night in the SEC, which will make for interesting basketball.
Vanderbilt
10-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking - 158
Big Wins: Georgia Tech - Losses: Georgetown, Wake Forest, Furman, Appalachian St
Key Players: GF Shan Foster, GF Derrick Byars, F Ross Neltner, G Dan Cage
Another team with loads of experience that hasn't paid off yet, Vanderbilt might be the toughest team to figure out in the SEC. The Dores stunned Georgia Tech, but have also lost to Furman and Appy State. The natives are restless in Nashville, and the SEC East is a tough place to live these days. Vanderbilt needs to make the most of its experience and try and find some wins to think about postseason play. They could be decent, they could be terrible. They'll always be Vanderbilt.
For Vol fans, here's Tennessee's SEC schedule (which does not include the CBS-televised January 13 game at Ohio State):
(FSN is Fox Sports Network, LFS is Lincoln Financial Sports, which means I get to say "check your local listings")
2007 Tennessee Basketball - SEC Schedule
Sun Jan 07 - vs. Mississippi State (4:00 PM - LFS)
Wed Jan 10 - at Vanderbilt (7:00 PM)
Wed Jan 17 - at Auburn (7:00 PM - LFS)
Sat Jan 20 - vs. South Carolina (6:00 PM - FSN)
Wed Jan 24 - at Ole Miss (7:00 PM)
Sun Jan 28 - at Kentucky (1:00 PM - CBS)
Wed Jan 31 - vs. Georgia (7:30 PM)
Sat Feb 3 - at Florida (3:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 6 - vs. LSU (9:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Feb 10 - vs. Vanderbilt (1:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 13 - vs. Kentucky (7:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Feb 17 - at South Carolina (3:30 PM - ABC)
Wed Feb 21 - vs. Alabama (8:00 PM - LFS)
Sat Feb 24 - at Arkansas (12:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 27 - vs. Florida (9:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Mar 3 - at Georgia (2:00 or 4:00 PM - LFS)
SEC Tournament: Thursday, March 8 - Sunday, March 11 @ Atlanta, GA
(RPI numbers found here)
Alabama
13-1 - AP Ranking: 8 - RPI Ranking: 13
Big Wins: Iowa, Xavier, NC State, Oklahoma - Losses: Notre Dame
Key Players: F Richard Hendrix, F Jermareo Davidson, F Alonzo Gee, G Ronald Steele
The Crimson Tide are talented enough to win a deep conference and are one of five SEC teams that are considered to be safe bets for the Dance. This is a big, well coached, experienced team with the 6'8" Hendrix and 6'10" Davidson, and Ronald Steele is one of the two or three best guards in the entire league. Alabama will get a stiff test early, opening at Arkansas on Saturday and then coming home to play LSU on Tuesday night. Simply put, Alabama is good enough to beat anyone they play, and Mark Gottfried's teams have a history of strong tournament runs. Watch out for these guys, they could be a huge factor in the grand scheme.
Arkansas
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 22
Big Wins: Southern Illinois, West Virginia - Losses: Missouri, Texas Tech, Texas
Key Players: G Patrick Beverley, F Charles Thomas, F Sonny Weems, G Gary Ervin
The Pigs were/are just on the cusp of the "sure bet for the Dance" category, but are projected by most to be the sixth SEC team to make the field. Despite going 0-for-Big 12 competition, the Hogs come into SEC play having won three in a row, and get Alabama at home tomorrow with a chance to make an instant impact. Stan Heath has an opportunity to move Arkansas into the upper tier of the conference, and needs to take advantage of it.
Auburn
10-5 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 163
Big Wins: none - Losses: Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, Pitt, Texas A&M, Southern Miss
Key Players: F Korvotney Barber, G Rasheem Barrett, G Quantez Robertson
Until Tuesday night's loss to Southern Miss, you could make an interesting case for Auburn, as their other four losses are to Top 15 teams. The Tigers have beaten the rest of their schedule, but the most impressive win might be 8-7 South Alabama, and it goes downhill from there. This is an incredibly young team - all three key players up there are sophomores, and the roster does not include a senior. They'll live and learn and may get better, but the rugged SEC will also take its toll on them along the way.
Florida
13-2 - AP Ranking: 3 - RPI Ranking: 52
Big Wins: Ohio State - Losses: Kansas, Florida State
Key Players: G Taurean Green, FC Al Horford, F Corey Brewer, FC Joakim Noah
My biggest question about the defending national champions is boredom. When Florida comes ready to play, you get great basketball - they lost 82-80 to Kansas and absolutely throttled Ohio State. The Gators also lost to FSU and it was way too close with UAB. The 16 game SEC schedule will test them every night, and while you absolutely must consider Florida the conference favorite, and their best is better than anyone else's (and you'll see it in Knoxville and Lexington for sure), don't expect this team to go 16-0. Still, they might be the best team in the entire country.
Georgia
8-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 111
Big Wins: Wake Forest, Gonzaga - Losses: W. Kentucky, GT, Clemson, Wisconsin
Key Players: G Levi Stukes, G Mike Mercer, F Takais Brown
Back on December 19, the Dawgs were 8-1 and had won seven in a row after the early loss to WKU, and beat Gonzaga by 13 points. But Christmas was highly unkind, as Georgia lost at Georgia Tech, lost at Clemson, and lost at home to Wisconsin, all double-digit L's. Granted, those are three very good teams, but Georgia's reward for coming into SEC season on a three game slide? They open at Florida. This is a young team outside of Levi Stukes, but may have the best chance of all of the lower-tier SEC teams to make a run. With the right breaks and the right wins, could easily get into the dance conversation. This is a program on the rise.
Kentucky
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 10
Big Wins: Indiana, Louisville - Losses: UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina
Key Players: C Randolph Morris, G Ramel Bradley, G Joe Crawford, F Bobby Perry
The Cats had a rough stretch at the start of the season, losing to UCLA by only five but then getting rocked by Memphis 80-63, and then turning around and losing 75-63 at Chapel Hill two games later. I'm sure they were calling for Tubby's head at that point, but now the Cats have won seven straight, and beating Rick Pitino's Louisville squad always makes it better. They're Kentucky, so they're in the title conversation. They need the younger guys to grow up quickly and help the returning starters - if you know who freshmen Jodie Meeks and Derrick Jasper are by February, that means the Cats are doing well. Last year was the first time that UK played on Thursday in the SEC Tournament, and with Florida at the top and Tennessee looking like no fluke, the Cats are finding themselves in a tougher fight than ever in the SEC. But they're Kentucky, which means they'll win games, compete for the conference title, get in the dance with a favorable seed, and call for Tubby's job.
LSU
10-3 - AP Ranking: 14 - RPI Ranking: 75
Big Wins: Texas A&M - Losses: Wichita State, Texas, Washington
Key Players: F Glen Davis, F Tasmin Mitchell, G Terry Martin, G Garrett Temple
The best regular season team in the SEC last year, the Tigers also play a key nonconference game against UConn tomorrow night. The loss to Texas was on the road and by one point, but the 16 point drubbing at UDub is more troubling. Either way, the Tigers may be in the best spot to win the SEC because they don't play in the Kentucky/Florida/Tennessee loaded East and - on paper - will only have to finish better than Alabama to win their division. Glen Davis is averaging 20 points and 11 boards per game and might be the best player in the SEC. Not only should the Tigers go dancing, they have the team in place to be thinking about a top three seed. At minimum, if they're playing on Thursday at the SEC Tournament, they'll be considered a disappointment.
Mississippi
11-3 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 106
Big Wins: none - Losses: UConn, Memphis, St. Louis
Key Players: G Bam Doyne, G Clarence Sanders, C Dwayne Curtis, G Todd Abernathy
Much like Auburn, Ole Miss hasn't beaten anyone but hasn't been really upset either, don't sleep on St. Louis. The Rebels will join Auburn and MSU as the lower-tier SEC West teams who will all have a shot to make some noise. While no one expects this team to go dancing, they are capable of some surprises here and there. Unlike Auburn and Georgia, this isn't a young team with only upperclassmen getting more than 20 minutes per game. So the good news is they're experienced, the bad news is these juniors/seniors haven't been talented enough to make Ole Miss relevant in the last few years. We'll see.
Mississippi State
9-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 88
Big Wins: Charlotte, Miami - Losses: Winthrop, Clemson, George Mason, Missouri
Key Players: GF Jamont Gordon, G Barry Stewart, FC Charles Rhodes
The Bulldogs are the most intriguing of all the lower-tier SEC teams, which starts with Jamont Gordon and his 15 points and 8 boards per game. Barry Stewart is a freshman scoring in double figures and is second on the team in minutes. Same rules apply here as with Ole Miss and Auburn - they can finish 4th, or they can finish 6th, and no one would be surprised. Of all the lower six teams in the SEC who could possibly make an NCAA run, Mississippi State is the most likely to wear the glass slipper from the West. While it's a stretch to call Charlotte and Miami big wins, the losses are acceptable (but the last two, on the road at George Mason and Missou, have come in the last week). The Bulldogs will open on Sunday in Knoxville.
South Carolina
10-2 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking: 61
Big Wins: Southern Cal, Charleston, Princeton - Losses: UC-Irvine, Clemson
Key Players: G Tre Kelley, F Brandon Wallace, GF Bryce Sheldon
Your two-time defending NIT Champions want to take the next step, but will have to do so without emotional leader Renaldo Balkman. Still, the three players listed up there, plus a strong freshman class make for a formidable opponent. Kelley, Wallace and Sheldon are experienced at winning and winning at tournament time. They apparently grew up a lot after the strange 15 point loss at UC-Irvine in the second game of the season. Well coached, talented enough, could easily slide into the dance.
Tennessee
12-2 - AP Ranking: 19 - RPI Ranking: 17
Big Wins: Memphis, Oklahoma State, Texas - Losses: Butler, North Carolina
Key Players: G Chris Lofton, GF Dane Bradshaw, F JaJuan Smith, F Duke Crews
The defending SEC East Champions bring the biggest scoring threat (and arguably the SEC's best player) in the conference to the floor each night in Chris Lofton. Tennessee won't sneak up on anyone this year, though they are young, having answered questions already with three consecutive big wins over teams that have beaten other SEC schools. Bruce Pearl's system will see opponents who will be better prepared to face it in 2007, and the Vols are young enough to lose every night and talented enough to win every night in the SEC, which will make for interesting basketball.
Vanderbilt
10-4 - AP Ranking: NR - RPI Ranking - 158
Big Wins: Georgia Tech - Losses: Georgetown, Wake Forest, Furman, Appalachian St
Key Players: GF Shan Foster, GF Derrick Byars, F Ross Neltner, G Dan Cage
Another team with loads of experience that hasn't paid off yet, Vanderbilt might be the toughest team to figure out in the SEC. The Dores stunned Georgia Tech, but have also lost to Furman and Appy State. The natives are restless in Nashville, and the SEC East is a tough place to live these days. Vanderbilt needs to make the most of its experience and try and find some wins to think about postseason play. They could be decent, they could be terrible. They'll always be Vanderbilt.
For Vol fans, here's Tennessee's SEC schedule (which does not include the CBS-televised January 13 game at Ohio State):
(FSN is Fox Sports Network, LFS is Lincoln Financial Sports, which means I get to say "check your local listings")
2007 Tennessee Basketball - SEC Schedule
Sun Jan 07 - vs. Mississippi State (4:00 PM - LFS)
Wed Jan 10 - at Vanderbilt (7:00 PM)
Wed Jan 17 - at Auburn (7:00 PM - LFS)
Sat Jan 20 - vs. South Carolina (6:00 PM - FSN)
Wed Jan 24 - at Ole Miss (7:00 PM)
Sun Jan 28 - at Kentucky (1:00 PM - CBS)
Wed Jan 31 - vs. Georgia (7:30 PM)
Sat Feb 3 - at Florida (3:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 6 - vs. LSU (9:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Feb 10 - vs. Vanderbilt (1:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 13 - vs. Kentucky (7:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Feb 17 - at South Carolina (3:30 PM - ABC)
Wed Feb 21 - vs. Alabama (8:00 PM - LFS)
Sat Feb 24 - at Arkansas (12:00 PM - LFS)
Tue Feb 27 - vs. Florida (9:00 PM - ESPN)
Sat Mar 3 - at Georgia (2:00 or 4:00 PM - LFS)
SEC Tournament: Thursday, March 8 - Sunday, March 11 @ Atlanta, GA
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Top 50 Vol Games 1989-2006 Revised
Here's the full list, which was originally compiled on this blog from August 2 to December 19 of last year. The list has been updated to include three games from the 2006 season, and I'm sure if I'm still blogging next January, we'll pull it back out and tweak it again after the 2007 season and beyond. You can find all of the summaries for the first 35 games, five at a time, and deeper individual analysis of the Top 15 games, all in the archives.
Let me also say that this has been my favorite blog to write over the course of the fall, both at the frantic pace at which it started, and as a great distraction to my real life with the final few games that came at a slower pace over the last two months. Thanks to all of you who read it, spread the word about it on various other websites, and shared in the memories - both Vol fans and opponent fans alike. We'll have to come up with something new to countdown to next...
The 2006 games that are now included on this list have bumped the 1993 South Carolina win, the 1994 Gator Bowl win over Virginia Tech, and the 1994 Georgia win off the list. The three new additions are included in bold text for your viewing pleasure.
The new, complete list:
50. 1996 - Tennessee 48 - Northwestern 28 (Citrus Bowl)
49. 1999 - Tennessee 24 - Auburn 0
48. 1996 - Tennessee 29 - Georgia 17
47. 2001 - Tennessee 17 - South Carolina 10
46. 1993 - Tennessee 38 - Georgia 6
45. 2006 - Tennessee 31 - Air Force 30
44. 2000 - Tennessee 17 - South Carolina 14
43. 1989 - Tennessee 31 - Arkansas 27 (Cotton Bowl)
42. 1997 - Tennessee 17 - Vanderbilt 10
41. 2001 - Tennessee 35 - Alabama 24
40. 1999 - Tennessee 21 - Alabama 7
39. 1999 - Tennessee 38 - Notre Dame 14
38. 1997 - Tennessee 38 - Georgia 13
37. 2001 - Tennessee 28 - Notre Dame 18
36. 1999 - Tennessee 37 - Georgia 20
35. 1996 - Tennessee 35 - UCLA 20
34. 2001 - Tennessee 38 - Kentucky 35
33. 2001 - Tennessee 26 - LSU 18
32. 1989 - Tennessee 24 - UCLA 6
31. 2006 - Tennessee 35 - California 18
30. 1989 - Tennessee 21 - Auburn 14
29. 1991 - Tennessee 30 - Auburn 21
28. 2004 - Tennessee 38 - Texas A&M 7 (Cotton Bowl)
27. 2003 - Tennessee 24 - Florida 10
26. 2001 - Tennessee 45 - Michigan 17 (Citrus Bowl)
25. 1995 - Tennessee 30 - Georgia 27
24. 1992 - Tennessee 34 - Georgia 31
23. 1990 - Tennessee 45 - Florida 3
22. 1998 - Tennessee 35 - Alabama 18
21. 1998 - Tennessee 22 - Georgia 3
20. 1998 - Tennessee 34 - Syracuse 33
19. 2003 - Tennessee 10 - Miami 6
18. 2006 - Tennessee 51 - Georgia 33
17. 1990 - Tennessee 23 - Virginia 22 (Sugar Bowl)
16. 2002 - Tennessee 41 - Arkansas 38 (6OT)
15. 2003 - Tennnessee 51 - Alabama 43 (5OT)
14. 2005 - Tennessee 30 - LSU 27 (OT)
13. 1995 - Tennessee 20 - Ohio State 14 (Citrus Bowl)
12. 2004 - Tennessee 19 - Georgia 14
11. 1998 - Tennessee 24 - Mississippi State 14 (SEC Championship)
10. 1992 - Tennessee 31 - Florida 14
09. 2004 - Tennessee 30 - Florida 28
08. 2001 - Tennessee 34 - Florida 32
07. 1997 - Tennessee 30 - Auburn 29 (SEC Championship)
06. 1996 - Tennessee 20 - Alabama 13
05. 1998 - Tennessee 28 - Arkansas 24
04. 1991 - Tennessee 35 - Notre Dame 34
03. 1995 - Tennessee 41 - Alabama 14
02. 1998 - Tennessee 20 - Florida 17 (OT)
01. 1998 - Tennessee 23 - Florida State 16 (National Championship)
In a related area, Tennessee's official website (utsports.com) has been running a "Greatest Offensive Plays of the Fulmer Era" fan poll all season long, which recently completed with James Wilhoit's 50 yard field goal to beat Florida in 2004 taking the crown. You can still see video clips from all 16 nominated plays - and many of these games - including commentary from Fulmer, by going to the direct link here.
Let me also say that this has been my favorite blog to write over the course of the fall, both at the frantic pace at which it started, and as a great distraction to my real life with the final few games that came at a slower pace over the last two months. Thanks to all of you who read it, spread the word about it on various other websites, and shared in the memories - both Vol fans and opponent fans alike. We'll have to come up with something new to countdown to next...
The 2006 games that are now included on this list have bumped the 1993 South Carolina win, the 1994 Gator Bowl win over Virginia Tech, and the 1994 Georgia win off the list. The three new additions are included in bold text for your viewing pleasure.
The new, complete list:
50. 1996 - Tennessee 48 - Northwestern 28 (Citrus Bowl)
49. 1999 - Tennessee 24 - Auburn 0
48. 1996 - Tennessee 29 - Georgia 17
47. 2001 - Tennessee 17 - South Carolina 10
46. 1993 - Tennessee 38 - Georgia 6
45. 2006 - Tennessee 31 - Air Force 30
44. 2000 - Tennessee 17 - South Carolina 14
43. 1989 - Tennessee 31 - Arkansas 27 (Cotton Bowl)
42. 1997 - Tennessee 17 - Vanderbilt 10
41. 2001 - Tennessee 35 - Alabama 24
40. 1999 - Tennessee 21 - Alabama 7
39. 1999 - Tennessee 38 - Notre Dame 14
38. 1997 - Tennessee 38 - Georgia 13
37. 2001 - Tennessee 28 - Notre Dame 18
36. 1999 - Tennessee 37 - Georgia 20
35. 1996 - Tennessee 35 - UCLA 20
34. 2001 - Tennessee 38 - Kentucky 35
33. 2001 - Tennessee 26 - LSU 18
32. 1989 - Tennessee 24 - UCLA 6
31. 2006 - Tennessee 35 - California 18
30. 1989 - Tennessee 21 - Auburn 14
29. 1991 - Tennessee 30 - Auburn 21
28. 2004 - Tennessee 38 - Texas A&M 7 (Cotton Bowl)
27. 2003 - Tennessee 24 - Florida 10
26. 2001 - Tennessee 45 - Michigan 17 (Citrus Bowl)
25. 1995 - Tennessee 30 - Georgia 27
24. 1992 - Tennessee 34 - Georgia 31
23. 1990 - Tennessee 45 - Florida 3
22. 1998 - Tennessee 35 - Alabama 18
21. 1998 - Tennessee 22 - Georgia 3
20. 1998 - Tennessee 34 - Syracuse 33
19. 2003 - Tennessee 10 - Miami 6
18. 2006 - Tennessee 51 - Georgia 33
17. 1990 - Tennessee 23 - Virginia 22 (Sugar Bowl)
16. 2002 - Tennessee 41 - Arkansas 38 (6OT)
15. 2003 - Tennnessee 51 - Alabama 43 (5OT)
14. 2005 - Tennessee 30 - LSU 27 (OT)
13. 1995 - Tennessee 20 - Ohio State 14 (Citrus Bowl)
12. 2004 - Tennessee 19 - Georgia 14
11. 1998 - Tennessee 24 - Mississippi State 14 (SEC Championship)
10. 1992 - Tennessee 31 - Florida 14
09. 2004 - Tennessee 30 - Florida 28
08. 2001 - Tennessee 34 - Florida 32
07. 1997 - Tennessee 30 - Auburn 29 (SEC Championship)
06. 1996 - Tennessee 20 - Alabama 13
05. 1998 - Tennessee 28 - Arkansas 24
04. 1991 - Tennessee 35 - Notre Dame 34
03. 1995 - Tennessee 41 - Alabama 14
02. 1998 - Tennessee 20 - Florida 17 (OT)
01. 1998 - Tennessee 23 - Florida State 16 (National Championship)
In a related area, Tennessee's official website (utsports.com) has been running a "Greatest Offensive Plays of the Fulmer Era" fan poll all season long, which recently completed with James Wilhoit's 50 yard field goal to beat Florida in 2004 taking the crown. You can still see video clips from all 16 nominated plays - and many of these games - including commentary from Fulmer, by going to the direct link here.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Closing the book on the '06 Vols...
I'm not exactly sure what it is about Penn State, but they showed Monday - 13 years since we last met, but for the third consecutive meeting - that they play a brand of football that Tennessee struggles with. In the wake of the 20-10 Outback Bowl loss and the close of the 2006 season, some intro/retrospection...
First, you continue to see elements of oversaturation - which isn't a word I ever thought I'd use about football and especially the Vols, since this blog is a great example of it in the first place - but in reading Tuesday's Knoxville News-Sentinel, where you'll need almost three hands to count the number of articles about the game, it seems like people - both journalists and fans alike - are making things more complicated than they are. It's not that I don't enjoy reading a dozen articles about the Outback Bowl the morning after, but sometimes you don't have to dig any deeper than a backbreaking long fumble returned for a touchdown with ten minutes left. Yes, Penn State ran the ball straight at us with success, the same way that Arkansas and LSU did. Yes, Bret Smith's absence hurt. But the Vols lost, more than anything else, because of Arian Foster's fumble. Nothing about it that Foster should wear the expression he had on his face after it happened for too much longer, and he can still be a good back here in the future, but that's what it comes down to.
When I read that Tennessee was/is "overrated", or that the Vols weren't ready to play, or that things aren't much different than 2005, I struggle. I'll be the first to admit that I lean on the optimistic side of the fence by trade, but in trying to stay in the realistic realm, I don't think you can really go with any of those statements for the 2006 story, even though the bowl game tends to flavor the entire season. If Foster doesn't fumble and the Vols win ugly 13-10, those stories are about how Tennessee is gritty and found a way to win against an opponent whose only regular season losses were to BCS teams and Wisconsin. But he did, and such is life.
In trying to look beyond the Outback Bowl while still including it in the rhythm of the story for the entire season, you find a mixture of emotions. The California win, in that moment, was something special (and will find its place on the revised Top 50 games list along with a couple others from 2006 later this week). But the balance of the entire season felt like it was in jeopardy a couple of times. If Air Force gets a two point conversion, these are all entirely different conversations. But if the Vols get a first down instead of an intentional grounding penalty the next week, then they're different conversations too.
Remember the feeling when Georgia was ahead 24-7? Remember the way you felt a few hours later? Things. Change. Quickly.
A popular optimistic thought process in 2005 was "if we don't make two special teams mistakes at Florida, if we don't let Georgia run a punt back for a touchdown, if we don't fumble into the end zone against Bama and Spurrier, if we don't throw that late interception against Vanderbilt..." and you get the idea.
The reality is, even though we're in two completely different places and people who use phrases like "nothing's changed from 2005" should have a Coke and a smile, there's a fine line between this year and last year.
In the present day of college football, nothing is free and everything counts. When we use phrases like "yeah, but we're Tennessee", that means we're talented enough on paper to beat anyone we play. That part's still true. But reality is, so is everyone else. Not only is every game more important than ever before, but every play is. There are fewer and fewer teams you can get behind 21 points to and then simply out-talent or outcoach to victory in the fourth quarter. You need to be lucky and you need to be good.
What Tennessee did in 2006 was reaffirm that they're going to be in the conversation and they're going to be a factor. The day of the truly dominant, year-in year-out program is gone; the last two "dynasties" in college football played in the Pac-10 and the Big East. So the goal is less to become this giant, dominant force in the SEC and the nation, because that's simply unrealistic. The goal is to keep yourself in position to win, and then do it. The Vols' 2006 season proved that they'll be in that position in August 2007 (though that position would certainly be helped if Robert Meachem decides to stick around).
It will be no different next year. In 2007, the Vols will face a schedule full of opponents capable of trading blows with them, and while they do replace LSU with Mississippi State on the SEC slate, they'll play their toughest competition away from Neyland Stadium. Preseason polls are nice and good material for the newspapers and this blog, but Tennessee can answer all and none of the questions with their on-field performance alone. What's success around here these days? On the one hand, you won a huge game in your season opener, had a memorable comeback victory on the road against a team that had beaten you five of six, beat Alabama and beat Spurrier. On the other hand, you lost to Florida, got your quarterback hurt which helped cost you the LSU game, got run over by Arkansas and then lost the bowl game by ten points to leave a bad taste in your mouth by losing to everyone except Kentucky and Vanderbilt at the end.
If I had to choose some words to try and capture it, I'd say we had a good season with a bad aftertaste. But it's not one that won't go down quickly. The focus is immediately 2007.
It starts with Robert Meachem and carries through recruiting, spring ball and summer workouts. This Vol team knows how to work hard, because they learned it last offseason. Now it'll be remembering that makes the difference.
So as we close the book on a reaffirming, interesting and enjoyable 2006, we turn the page to 2007. Here's a very rough look at what's lining up for the Vols:
QB - Erik Ainge
RB - Arian Foster/Montario Hardesty/LaMarcus Coker
FB - David Holbert
WR - Robert Meachem (pretty please?)/Lucas Taylor/Austin Rogers/Josh Briscoe/Quentin Hancock/a freshman to be named later
TE - Chris Brown/Brad Cottam
OT - Eric Young/Steven Jones/Chris Scott/freshman or position change
OG - Jacques McClendon/Ramon Foster/Anthony Parker/Vladimir Richard
C - Josh McNeil
DE - Antonio Reynolds/Xavier Mitchell
DT - Demonte Bolden/JT Mapu (need depth here badly)
LB - Jerod Mayo/Ryan Karl/Rico McCoy (who plays in the middle?)
DB - Jonathan Hefney/Demetrice Morley/Roshaun Fellows (back from medical redshirt)/Antonio Gaines/Antonio Wardlow (what's the breakdown here?)
K - Daniel Lincoln/Chad Cunningham (both redshirted)/true freshman?
P - Britton Colquitt
These guys will be playing against this:
Sep 01 - at California
Sep 08 - vs Southern Miss
Sep 15 - at Florida
Sep 22 - vs Northern Illinois
Sep 29 - vs Central Florida
Oct 06 - vs Georgia
Oct 13 - at Mississippi State
Oct 20 - at Alabama
Oct 27 - vs South Carolina
Nov 03 - bye week
Nov 10 - vs Arkansas
Nov 17 - vs Vanderbilt
Nov 24 - at Kentucky
Is it August yet?
First, you continue to see elements of oversaturation - which isn't a word I ever thought I'd use about football and especially the Vols, since this blog is a great example of it in the first place - but in reading Tuesday's Knoxville News-Sentinel, where you'll need almost three hands to count the number of articles about the game, it seems like people - both journalists and fans alike - are making things more complicated than they are. It's not that I don't enjoy reading a dozen articles about the Outback Bowl the morning after, but sometimes you don't have to dig any deeper than a backbreaking long fumble returned for a touchdown with ten minutes left. Yes, Penn State ran the ball straight at us with success, the same way that Arkansas and LSU did. Yes, Bret Smith's absence hurt. But the Vols lost, more than anything else, because of Arian Foster's fumble. Nothing about it that Foster should wear the expression he had on his face after it happened for too much longer, and he can still be a good back here in the future, but that's what it comes down to.
When I read that Tennessee was/is "overrated", or that the Vols weren't ready to play, or that things aren't much different than 2005, I struggle. I'll be the first to admit that I lean on the optimistic side of the fence by trade, but in trying to stay in the realistic realm, I don't think you can really go with any of those statements for the 2006 story, even though the bowl game tends to flavor the entire season. If Foster doesn't fumble and the Vols win ugly 13-10, those stories are about how Tennessee is gritty and found a way to win against an opponent whose only regular season losses were to BCS teams and Wisconsin. But he did, and such is life.
In trying to look beyond the Outback Bowl while still including it in the rhythm of the story for the entire season, you find a mixture of emotions. The California win, in that moment, was something special (and will find its place on the revised Top 50 games list along with a couple others from 2006 later this week). But the balance of the entire season felt like it was in jeopardy a couple of times. If Air Force gets a two point conversion, these are all entirely different conversations. But if the Vols get a first down instead of an intentional grounding penalty the next week, then they're different conversations too.
Remember the feeling when Georgia was ahead 24-7? Remember the way you felt a few hours later? Things. Change. Quickly.
A popular optimistic thought process in 2005 was "if we don't make two special teams mistakes at Florida, if we don't let Georgia run a punt back for a touchdown, if we don't fumble into the end zone against Bama and Spurrier, if we don't throw that late interception against Vanderbilt..." and you get the idea.
The reality is, even though we're in two completely different places and people who use phrases like "nothing's changed from 2005" should have a Coke and a smile, there's a fine line between this year and last year.
In the present day of college football, nothing is free and everything counts. When we use phrases like "yeah, but we're Tennessee", that means we're talented enough on paper to beat anyone we play. That part's still true. But reality is, so is everyone else. Not only is every game more important than ever before, but every play is. There are fewer and fewer teams you can get behind 21 points to and then simply out-talent or outcoach to victory in the fourth quarter. You need to be lucky and you need to be good.
What Tennessee did in 2006 was reaffirm that they're going to be in the conversation and they're going to be a factor. The day of the truly dominant, year-in year-out program is gone; the last two "dynasties" in college football played in the Pac-10 and the Big East. So the goal is less to become this giant, dominant force in the SEC and the nation, because that's simply unrealistic. The goal is to keep yourself in position to win, and then do it. The Vols' 2006 season proved that they'll be in that position in August 2007 (though that position would certainly be helped if Robert Meachem decides to stick around).
It will be no different next year. In 2007, the Vols will face a schedule full of opponents capable of trading blows with them, and while they do replace LSU with Mississippi State on the SEC slate, they'll play their toughest competition away from Neyland Stadium. Preseason polls are nice and good material for the newspapers and this blog, but Tennessee can answer all and none of the questions with their on-field performance alone. What's success around here these days? On the one hand, you won a huge game in your season opener, had a memorable comeback victory on the road against a team that had beaten you five of six, beat Alabama and beat Spurrier. On the other hand, you lost to Florida, got your quarterback hurt which helped cost you the LSU game, got run over by Arkansas and then lost the bowl game by ten points to leave a bad taste in your mouth by losing to everyone except Kentucky and Vanderbilt at the end.
If I had to choose some words to try and capture it, I'd say we had a good season with a bad aftertaste. But it's not one that won't go down quickly. The focus is immediately 2007.
It starts with Robert Meachem and carries through recruiting, spring ball and summer workouts. This Vol team knows how to work hard, because they learned it last offseason. Now it'll be remembering that makes the difference.
So as we close the book on a reaffirming, interesting and enjoyable 2006, we turn the page to 2007. Here's a very rough look at what's lining up for the Vols:
QB - Erik Ainge
RB - Arian Foster/Montario Hardesty/LaMarcus Coker
FB - David Holbert
WR - Robert Meachem (pretty please?)/Lucas Taylor/Austin Rogers/Josh Briscoe/Quentin Hancock/a freshman to be named later
TE - Chris Brown/Brad Cottam
OT - Eric Young/Steven Jones/Chris Scott/freshman or position change
OG - Jacques McClendon/Ramon Foster/Anthony Parker/Vladimir Richard
C - Josh McNeil
DE - Antonio Reynolds/Xavier Mitchell
DT - Demonte Bolden/JT Mapu (need depth here badly)
LB - Jerod Mayo/Ryan Karl/Rico McCoy (who plays in the middle?)
DB - Jonathan Hefney/Demetrice Morley/Roshaun Fellows (back from medical redshirt)/Antonio Gaines/Antonio Wardlow (what's the breakdown here?)
K - Daniel Lincoln/Chad Cunningham (both redshirted)/true freshman?
P - Britton Colquitt
These guys will be playing against this:
Sep 01 - at California
Sep 08 - vs Southern Miss
Sep 15 - at Florida
Sep 22 - vs Northern Illinois
Sep 29 - vs Central Florida
Oct 06 - vs Georgia
Oct 13 - at Mississippi State
Oct 20 - at Alabama
Oct 27 - vs South Carolina
Nov 03 - bye week
Nov 10 - vs Arkansas
Nov 17 - vs Vanderbilt
Nov 24 - at Kentucky
Is it August yet?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
.png)