14. West VirginiaYou can essentially start copying and pasting "these rankings represent where I think teams will finish, not how talented they are" at the top of each new entry from this point on. Without question, West Virginia is one of the five most talented college football teams, and one of the three most talented on offense. They play in the Big East, which is getting more competitive, but the league is projected to still come down to Louisville - who we've already seen in this countdown at 17 - and West Virginia, and that game is played in Morgantown this year. Advantage: Mountaineers.
So why isn't West Virginia ranked in the top five? That answer starts with defense and ends with inevitability. Last year, the Mountaineers finished 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in rushing offense (a sick 303 yards per game), and 5th in total offense. However, they finished 49th in scoring defense, 62nd in total defense, and while they were tough against the run (13th at 93.3 yards allowed per game), they ranked 109th against the pass. Their 3-3-5 defense does return every piece of that secondary, which will help, but they must replace four of the six starters up front. To play for the National Championship, West Virginia must finish undefeated, period. And even if they beat Louisville - which I think they will - I don't see this team and this defense running the entire table.
There is, of course, good news. Rich Rodriguez said no to Alabama to stay at West Virginia, 
which is not something you would've guessed as a possible outcome around three years ago. And yeah, you've got two Heisman candidates in your backfield in Pat White and Steve Slaton - plus bruising fullback Owen Schmitt - behind three returning starters on the offensive line. This team will score points with no doubts and no exceptions; even the very best defenses, who would make White beat them throwing the ball, which he didn't really have to do last year, would struggle to stop this unit. There's no one on the schedule who can shut them down - they scored 34 in the loss to Louisville, and were a little handcuffed by South Florida in scoring only 19 points. But once again, the non-conference schedule is highlighted by a trip to Maryland and a home date with Mississippi State, two of the least-feared teams in their respective power conferences. So West Virginia will again be shooting for around 35 points per game, which could be enough with the defense to keep them at the top of the Big East heap and in the National Championship conversation.
which is not something you would've guessed as a possible outcome around three years ago. And yeah, you've got two Heisman candidates in your backfield in Pat White and Steve Slaton - plus bruising fullback Owen Schmitt - behind three returning starters on the offensive line. This team will score points with no doubts and no exceptions; even the very best defenses, who would make White beat them throwing the ball, which he didn't really have to do last year, would struggle to stop this unit. There's no one on the schedule who can shut them down - they scored 34 in the loss to Louisville, and were a little handcuffed by South Florida in scoring only 19 points. But once again, the non-conference schedule is highlighted by a trip to Maryland and a home date with Mississippi State, two of the least-feared teams in their respective power conferences. So West Virginia will again be shooting for around 35 points per game, which could be enough with the defense to keep them at the top of the Big East heap and in the National Championship conversation.2007 West Virginia Schedule
09/01 - vs Western Michigan
09/08 - at Marshall
09/13 - at Maryland (Thurs)
09/22 - vs East Carolina
09/28 - at South Florida (Fri)
10/06 - at Syracuse
10/13 - off week
10/20 - vs Mississippi State
10/27 - at Rutgers
11/03 - off week
11/08 - vs Louisville (Thurs)
11/17 - at Cincinnati
11/24 - vs Connecticut
12/01 - vs Pittsburgh
Final Analysis
As stated, I'm giving them the win over Louisville, and I think Rutgers was more fantasy than reality, so I'm picking West Virginia to win the Big East and therefore make it to the BCS. However, I don't think they'll go undefeated. Somewhere in there, even if it's not against Louisville, the Mountaineers are going to falter. It happened with South Florida last year, and almost happened with Rutgers and Georgia Tech - don't be mistaken by thinking that West Virginia is invincible and unbeatable unless they're playing U of L. So I'm picking an upset along the way to knock them out of the National Championship picture. With the Big East title comes a trip to the Orange Bowl and a date with the ACC Champion - which, if that's Virginia Tech, would make fans of both programs incredibly happy - and I'm taking another West Virginia loss in the bowl. The Mountaineers don't command the same sort of respect from the polls as other more household-name teams, so even with two losses, you could see them drop this far if they lose their bowl game. And that's what I'm projecting - a Big East Championship, an upset that keeps them out of the BCS Championship Game, and an Orange Bowl loss. Still, a very good year for a very good team that will still potentially have all the talent, pieces, and schedule in place to run the table and go undefeated if they can avoid any landmines along the way. They can, I just don't think they will.
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