The Idiot's Guide to a College Football Playoff

Lots of times in life, you sit down and look at situations and you can clearly see and say, "this is the right thing to do, this is the best thing to do for all involved." And then you have to say "but in the real world..." and settle, compromise, or whatever word you want to put on it. A playoff in college football is the right thing to do, and it's the best thing for all involved. Even if you can think of one or two minorities in this equation who would not benefit from a playoff (small conference teams, or teams in tougher conferences - which we'll deal with in a minute), a playoff is still the needs of the many outweighing the needs of the few.

Now, in the real world, there are things like BCS contracts, university presidents, and other factors that get in the way. And sometimes, like last year, the current system does work. But you don't even have to have three undefeated teams, as in 2004, to cause controversy. Right now, there's going to be debate about whether Southern Cal, Florida, or even Michigan is most deserving of the #2 spot. And that debate is resolved by human pollsters and computer polls. And in any sport, the true and final outcome deserves to be decided on the field.

So this is the best I can do. Some of these ideas are going to stretch the boundaries of the current reality in college football, but I don't think any of them step outside of them. This isn't a perfect plan...but it's a good one.

WHAT THE PLAYOFF SYSTEM MUST DO:
1. Maintain the integrity of every game of the regular season
The common saying, which I use a lot, is that "the regular season is the playoffs." If you lose one game, you're in trouble and no longer in control of your own destiny. If you lose twice, you're out of the conversation unless there are truly unusual circumstances (2001 Colorado is the only two loss team in my memory that was in the title conversation). When you watch the NFL, when your team drops a game, it's unfortunate, but you know it's not the end of the world because 10-6 will usually make the playoffs. In college football, every Saturday can be armageddon. The playoffs must not turn the life-and-death reality of every Saturday into anything less. The playoffs must not allow the statement "oh well, we'll still make the playoffs" after a loss to enter into the college football vocabulary - this is most essential. Because of this, the playoffs shall include no more than eight teams. If you entertain the idea of a sixteen team playoff - no matter how awesome and exciting that would be - you invalidate the regular season. Tennessee is 9-3 right now, and people feel like we've had a good year. If there was a sixteen team playoff, the Vols would be on the bubble. You shouldn't get a chance to play for the national championship if you've just had a good year. The eight best teams in college football every year are all going to be great teams - no scrubs will sneak in. This year, you're talking about Ohio State, Michigan, Southern Cal, the winner of Florida/Arkansas, LSU, Louisville, Wisconsin, and then a whole bunch of bubble teams. All of those teams are great teams (shut up, Wisconsin is 11-1). And yes, there would be debates about why the #9 team got left out and why they should've been allowed in. But the reality is, the #9 team is probably going to be a two-game loser...and if you've lost twice, you've probably also lost your real ability to argue about why you're a great team. An eight team playoff would keep intact the intensity and necessity of winning every Saturday of the regular season.

2. Be as fair as possible
We'll get to selection rules in a minute, but an effort must be made to put everyone on an even playing field. This begins with having somebody man up and tell Notre Dame to face facts and get in a conference, or at the very least removing any contract that gives them any special rights or automatic bids. Rules also must be in place to make sure that small conference teams have at least a chance to make the playoffs. A rule would have to be written somehow that would ensure that 12-0 Boise State made the playoffs if they were in existence right now. The biggest issue with fair and balanced is with conference championship games. Simply put, it's terribly unfair that three major conferences have to play a championship game, while the other three don't. If a playoff was constructed, this issue must be handled. The issue of fairness is also what favors an eight team playoff over a sixteen team one, or a Final Four. A four team playoff would mean that at least two conference champions got left out - and in the interest of maintaining the integrity of college football, a conference champion should get a shot in any playoff format. There would also be much more heated debate about "who's #4?" than there would over "who's #8?". The issue of fairness also eliminates the idea of a "Plus-One" format - which would mean this year that Ohio State, if they beat Southern Cal, would then have to turn around and face the best team after the bowl games. If that system was in place, it would mean that the Buckeyes would have to beat Michigan, Southern Cal, and Michigan again to win it all - essentially, playing the #2 team three straight games in a gauntlet. In the playoffs, the #1 team would only have to play the #2 team once - the way it's supposed to be.

3. Schedule wisely
For all of the arguments about the season lasting too long, getting into finals, or anything else...the system must manage time well. The one system that seems to work best is playing the conference title games the first weekend of December, then taking a week off, then playing the Quarterfinals the third weekend of December (all games on Saturday to avoid the NFL) - then playing all of the bowl games for the non-qualifiers - and playing the Semifinals on January 1. That way, the National Championship could be played either January 8 or January 15, or on any Saturday that falls inbetween. The bowl system must remain for the remaining 111 teams that don't make the playoffs, and again, with an eight team playoff instead of a sixteen team, the bowls stay valuable. Right now, 10 teams make the BCS and are out of other bowl consideration. Eight teams out of bowl consideration wouldn't change the mix.

4. Make money
Well, duh. Hello TV ratings and advertising, because as much as the die-hard football fan loves to watch the January 1 bowl games, more people would watch any playoff game, because they would matter more. The fact that this would make money is almost as obvious as the fact that the playoffs would...

5. Give the people what they want
Which means no more segments on ESPN GameDay about what's wrong with the BCS, no more time wasted talking about who's getting screwed and left out of the national title picture, and all the time spent focusing on the product on the field. No other sport has a championship system that's decided by anything other than on-field performance. Give the people what they want.

With these guidelines in mind, here's the layout for an eight team college football playoff:

A. Make all six major conferences 12 teams with a championship game
This seemed wholly unrealistic until the ACC simply went out and made this happen a few years ago. And now, it's suddenly not so difficult to see this working out in the Big 10, Pac-10, and Big East. What would need to happen here:

- Add four teams to the Big East. The league already went shopping once and picked up Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida to replace the ACC defections. Picking up an additional four schools would help give the league more respectability if they did it right. Now, here's where we get to talk about Notre Dame. The Irish play in the Big East in all other sports at the university. While the temptation would be for Notre Dame to jump to the Big 10, cooler heads may prevail there and see that the Irish might be a better fit - and find winning easier - in the Big East. Either way, the Irish are going to have to "lower" themselves and play the likes of UConn here or Illinois in the Big 10. They'd still have four non-conference games to go out and schedule the big opponents, they could keep the Michigan and Southern Cal rivalries and then play a softer conference schedule if they went to the Big East. For the sake of argument, in this scenario we're going to put the Irish in the Big East instead of the Big 10. Notre Dame doesn't want to go to a conference? This is where the NCAA needs to step in and make these rules official, and force the Irish hand. They might go kicking and screaming, but they'd go if it meant their shot at the National Championship.

Where else does the conference go? Raid Conference USA (again) is what they do. Marshall, thanks to their tradition and name, is an easy selection. From there, you've got some options for the other two schools, but based on their strength over the last decade, and the fact that in this conference, you're only talking about taking a school for football only, I'd go with East Carolina and Southern Miss. This would give you a definite north-south split in the Big East. The new conference:

The New Big East
North Division - Cincinnati, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
South Division - East Carolina, Louisville, Marshall, Southern Miss, South Florida, West Virginia

- Add one team to the Big 10
With Notre Dame off the table, you lose that one sure-fire add to the conference, and force them to make a tough decision. Remember, here you'd also be talking about adding all the other athletic programs, which means you especially have to consider basketball when looking at a team to add and the divisional breakdown. The conference could have its pick of the MAC litter, but there's just not one school there that would be an overwhelmingly positive addition in either football or basketball. So we stretch the boundaries here, and look west - the geography is going to be a factor here, but that didn't stop Miami in the Big East. The one small conference college football team in the general north/midwest area that's been consistently strong in this millenium? How about Boise State? Again, each conference needs 12 teams, and Notre Dame makes more sense in the Big East to give that conference more instant credibility. So it's Boise State (don't get hung up on this part and throw the whole scenario out of the window), though if you can pick one of those average MAC teams at random and throw them in it'll still work. The divisional breakdown would then look like this (again, also must make sense for basketball):

The New Big 10 (because having 11 teams didn't force a name change, why would 12?)
East Division - Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
West Division - Boise State, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin

- Add two teams to the Pac-10
Lots of options here - perhaps Boise State or Fresno State, or even Hawaii if you want a more exotic flavor. However, when you consider basketball and tradition as well, the best possible option by far is taking BYU and Utah. The Utes will be a nice addition to your basketball strength as well as being a solid program on the gridiron, while BYU is BYU. This makes for another easy divisional split:

The New PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference, anyone?)
North Division - California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
South Division - Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Southern Cal, UCLA, Utah

Now that we've got six leagues with 12 teams, here's how we set up the playoffs:

B. Conference champions get automatic playoff bids
This means that the goal of each team, every season, is win your division. If you win your division, you play in the conference title game, and that means you'll have a shot to play for the National Championship. This also means that, alongside the eight team playoff, you also get essentially another week of playoffs with the conference championship games. If you win your conference, you get to play for it all. Six conference champions, six playoff spots leaves room for two at-large selections. These two spots will help protect two teams in exceptionally strong divisions (like back in the day when Florida would go 12-0 and the Vols were 11-1), and also protect against a team that finished the regular season undefeated and then was upset in its conference title game, to not throw away the whole body of work in one week. The two at-large selections would be made using the BCS formula - two highest non-conference champions get in. Stipulations are also made for any undefeated conference champion from C-USA, MAC, MWC, and WAC leagues. To help keep this honest, during championship week, the champions of Conference USA and the MAC will play each other, and the champions of the Mountain West and WAC will play each other. No automatic bids for these leagues, but if a team (Boise State this year) goes undefeated, including the conference vs. conference title game during championship week, they get one of the at-large bids. No stipulations are made for Notre Dame or anyone else.

C. Playoff seeding is determined using the BCS formula
Because it's gotta be good for something, right? The day after the conference title games (the first Sunday of December), the final BCS poll is released, selecting the two at-large teams and seeding all eight playoff teams. The bracket is then restructed to eliminate any regular-season rematches in the opening round. Quarterfinal games are played at the higher-ranked team's home field. Neutral sites are good and all, but it's way too much to ask the average fan to travel to a neutral site for the conference title game, then to as many as three straight other sites for the playoffs. The quarterfinals are played on the third Saturday in December. The seminfinal games will be played at two of the BCS bowl sites (Sugar, Orange, Rose or Fiesta) not being used for the National Championship Game. After the seedings are announced, the remaining bowls make their selections. The one BCS bowl that is not being used on a rotating basis for one of the three seminfinal/final games that year selects the two highest-ranked teams remaining in the BCS poll that did not make the playoffs (the #9 and #10 teams). The playoff Final Four semifinal games are played on January 1, along with all the usual bowls. The National Championship Game is played on the second Saturday following January 1 - the day before the AFC/NFC Championship Games - anywhere between January 9 and January 15.

How would this look in 2006?
(All of this part, of course, is in theory...)
ACC Championship: Wake Forest over Georgia Tech
Big East Championship: Notre Dame over Louisville
Big 10 Championship: Ohio State over Michigan (regular season game would need to be pushed back here)
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska
PAC Championship: USC over California
SEC Championship: Florida over Arkansas
At-Large Selections: LSU, Wisconsin (in theory, Michigan will have now lost twice to OSU)

Playoff Seeding:
1. Ohio State
2. Southern Cal
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Wisconsin
7. Wake Forest
8. Notre Dame

Playoff Bracket (Quarterfinals)
Notre Dame at Ohio State
Oklahoma at LSU
Wisconsin at Florida
Wake Forest at Southern Cal

I'll admit, this isn't the sexiest year for a playoff (though it would get more interesting in the Final Four)...but the potential year in, year out is outstanding. More than anything else, it just makes sense. Looking ahead to next year, if this was implemented, you could have Championshp Saturdays in December that look like this:

Mythical 2007 Championship Saturday
ACC Championship: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
Big East Championship: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
Big 10 Championship: Ohio State vs. Michigan
Big 12 Championship: Texas vs. Nebraska
PAC Championship: USC vs. California
SEC Championship: Auburn vs. Tennessee (hey, it's still my blog)

With playoff bids on the line in all of those games, and the ensuing matchups...you'd watch. Odds are if you're reading this, you're watching anyway...but especially in years where there are no undefeated teams, which will happen, this is the only way to go.

More than anything else, you would eliminate controversy and human opinion from the equation, where only the on-field results count as they should. Win your division, you get your shot. You would get a college football postseason that more people would talk about and watch, you would get three meaningful weekends of football alongside most of the currently-existing bowl games. The eight best teams would get their shot, and the best team would win at the end of the day. This is the way it's supposed to be.

College football needs a playoff. This is the best way I can come up with to do it, and realistically it's not impossible. The point of this isn't necessarily to talk about how realistic this or any other scenario is, but just to show what can be on the table. This could happen. We need it. College football is already the best sport in America - this is the only way I can imagine to actually make it better.

A man can dream...

The Last Run

Today marks the final run through the T for 20 Vol seniors when the Vols take on Kentucky. In a year where this class can complete a turnaround with a win today and leave with much to be proud of, including an Eastern Division Championship in 2004 and a chance to win two big bowl games, here's a look at what's on display for the last time at Neyland Stadium today, and what'll have to be replaced in 2007. Some of the names who've made an impact in Knoxville during their journey:

FB Corey Anderson
Anderson, sadly, may be best remembered for leaving the game at the one yard line and watching the ball go out of the end zone for a touchback at Alabama last year. However, Anderson - used more by Randy Sanders than David Cutcliffe - was and is a versatile, athletic fullback who may get a look from the combine, and was the starter at his position for more than two years as the pride of Austin-East.

DT Justin Harrell
Another who didn't get to reach his full potential, but for a different reason. Harrell spent two years reaping the benefits of the double teams that Jesse Maholena received, came into his own as the Defensive MVP of the Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M, and elected to stay for his senior season to anchor the defensive line. He had a big role in stuffing Cal and played his final game as a hero, putting off surgery to play one more week against Florida. His biggest impact in 2006 has been his absence, as the Vol D-line has struggled to slow the running games of LSU and Arkansas. Should get a shot in the NFL.

OG David Ligon
Asked to be versatile like most Vol offensive linemen, Ligon played and started at center last year before moving to guard in 2006, where he has started every game.

DT Turk McBride
Playing outside on end before Harrell's injury moved him back inside, McBride has been the best defensive tackle on the team this year and may also get a look in the NFL. Played well alongsie...

DT Matt McGlothlin
The good walk-on story who has been a mainstay at defensive tackle in 2006 with one of the biggest motors on the team.

LB Marvin Mitchell
Became the steady presence and middle linebacker in his first opportunity to start after playing in games since his true freshman season in 2002. Turned into a veteran leader for the young LB corps and now leads the team in tackles.

OT Arron Sears
The seemingly rare example of a five star prospect who turned into a five star player, Sears - a three year starter - is without question the best offensive lineman on this team and will be the senior most difficult to replace on offense.

WR Bret Smith
Made an instant impact against Florida as a true freshman, catching a long bomb in The Swamp to setup a touchdown. This year, has turned into the deadliest #3 receiver since Peerless Price lined up there ten years ago with Nash and Kent. Capable of turning the big play, made a great TD against Arkansas to go with clutch TD grabs against Georgia in 2004 and 2006.

SS Antwan Stewart
Was a freshman All-America before suffering an injury and moving from corner to strong safety, where he has held off younger players and maintained a starting role. Solid in the secondary his entire career.

WR Jayson Swain
At his best against Alabama but always there to make the clutch catch, has been a great combo with Robert Meachem to become the best WR tandem in the SEC in 2006. His leadership, route running and hands will definitely be missed in the WR corps.

CB Jonathan Wade
After two years of playing him at wide receiver and trying to find his niche, moved to corner and learned from Jason Allen before turning into a dynamic playmaker at the first corner spot since Allen's injury. Has helped shut down DeSean Jackson, Sidney Rice, and Earl Bennett in 2006, and has the flat out speed to play in the NFL.

K James Wilhoit
Will leave Tennessee as the most decorated kicker since Jeff Hall. Written in stone in Volunteer lore for beating Florida with a 50 yard field goal in 2004. Has been clutch this year and is arguably the best kicker in the SEC. Not easy to replace by any means, but I'm sure we've got a freshman on the way.

Here comes College Basketball...

(Deep breath...)

Tonight: out in Maui, #19 Georgia Tech and #11 Memphis collide at 7:00, and then at 9:30 you get #5 UCLA and #22 Kentucky in a huge chance for Tubby Smith to make some early noise. Out in Kansas City, in the CBE Classic, you can stay up late for #8 Duke and #17 Marquette. Today is the first real day of NCAA Basketball, the first chance you have to dive in to several big matchups and get a look at the best teams. I'll be watching for Thaddeus Young at GT going against future Tennessee opponent Memphis, and to see what Randolph Morris, Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford can do against UCLA. It's great to care about college basketball again.

And PS, if you haven't seen this yet...don't bring that stuff into Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood. I say Yao is faking the injury to try and excuse getting denied by someone who's almost two feet smaller than him. USA! USA!

Random Thoughts - The Weekend

Erik Ainge + David Cutcliffe = _____________
You can fill in the blank with the words you like best. Brilliance? Night and day turnaround? Potentially, the best non-Manning Tennessee quarterback ever? That last statement might be a bit much, but I know this: Ainge is the most talented passing quarterback the Vols have had besides Manning. He may lack Andy Kelly's leadership, Heath Shuler's athleticism, Tee Martin's speed, and Casey Clausen's 4th quarter presence...but when you look at him in his progressions and see what he sees and watch where he throws - especially with Meachem, Swain, and Smith - you see the passing game at its finest. It's a tremendous shame that he didn't get a crack at LSU or Arkansas, and it'll be tough in 07 without at least two of those receivers and probably all three...but watch him this week against Kentucky's defense, and then in the bowl game, and enjoy the ride while it lasts. David Cutcliffe and John Chavis are worth every dime.

Ohio State/Michigan or Auburn/Alabama?
Unintentionally, I found myself more enthralled with the Iron Bowl on Saturday than the #1 vs. #2 showdown. With both games on the line late, I was more interested and engaged with Bama/Auburn than the Buckeyes and Wolverines. Maybe that's just from living here in the south, but don't let anyone tell you that they do it any better than they do in the SEC. You can take the Vols, Gators, Dawgs, Tide and Auburn, and all of the rivalries that exist between all five of those teams would rival anything else that any game in America could throw at you. We simply do it better down here.

The Cowboys still hurt. When I was younger, like in middle school, I fell on the Cowboys side of the great Cowboys-49ers war of the early to mid 90s. I was a Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin man. I loved their two Super Bowl wins. And then the Cowboys became like the girl that you're in love with and the relationship can't be going any better, and then after awhile the scales fall from your eyes and you see her for what she is, and all of her faults...and enough is enough. So somewhere between Barry Switzer and Michael Irvin's felony of choice, I had enough of them Cowboys. Made the easy transition when the Oilers/Titans came to Tennessee. And over time, the became the ex that makes you clinch your jaw when you see them. But they were never important enough, or good enough really, to have a negative impact on me until today. Today they took down the undefeated Colts and roughed up my boy Manning. They did it after I was enjoying Mike Vanderjagt kick his way out of the NFL and into therapy. They did it with T.O. and Bill Parcells, and no one likes those guys. They're not good enough to get to the Super Bowl, but they're pretty high on the list of potential opponents I want to see for the Colts (being that the Titans are still coming along). I hate those guys.

It's great to be a Tennessee Vol...especially in the NFL this week.
In the aforementioned Colts-Cowboys game, Kevin Burnett runs an INT back for a TD and Jason Witten continues to benefit from Tony Romo. And even Manning, in the loss, was still Manning, doing that thing where the camera is in tight on him and he releases the ball at just the right moment, and you can't see downfield but you know somebody is open and that ball is on the money. How about Travis Henry (143 and a TD) and Jamal Lewis (91 yards, 3 TDs)? How about not being surprised when Al Wilson turns into one of the best defensive players in the entire league, still knocking heads with the permanently-furrowed brow in his eighth year in the league. And while we're at it, a continued hats off to ex-Vol assistant Lovie Smith and the Chicago Bears. Winning ugly is winning. And who doesn't want to see the Colts and the Bears in the Super Bowl? Best offense vs. best defense? And don't tell me you wouldn't get an extra kick out of Peyton Manning vs. Rex Grossman.

LaDanian Tomlinson should be the #1 pick in every fantasy draft until he retires.
Look, Larry Johnson is solid and I'm all for Peyton Manning. But I had this mug last year, and beat whole teams in my league with just his points in two separate weeks. I made the playoffs squarely on his shoulders. As I type this, late in the third quarter, he's scored all three San Diego touchdowns to this point at Denver. There's just no logical argument for taking anyone else #1 next year, or any year. He - like Manning - is a Super Bowl away from being in the "best of all time" discussion.

Steve Spurrier to Miami?
The Ballcoach says he's flattered but not going anywhere, but you never know. Other candidates to fill the Larry Coker void? Greg Schiano at Rutgers, who's an ex-Cane assistant...and I'm also reading Barry Alvarez's name out there, wouldn't that be a kick in the pants for Wisconsin seeing how he's still the AD there?

Alfonso Soriano to the Cubs
Give Chicago credit for opening the checkbook and trying to be competitive now, which sometimes works (Mets) and sometimes falls on its face (Orioles). Obviously, the excitement is an everyday thing in Chitown, and if the most snakebitten pitchers in modern history finally get healthy...who knows? Aren't we coming up on the 100 year anniversary of the goat? "This is our year!"

The Table is Set

Just when you think there's enough on your plate for Ohio State-Michigan, Bo Shcembechler dies, and now there's no threat of ESPN running out of ways to breakdown the game they've been working on for a solid month.

Often times you get the overhyped game (Florida State-Miami FULL CIRCLE anyone?) that can't meet expectations. Sometimes the networks are guilty of that, but sometimes the game creates itself like this one with 11-0 Ohio State and 11-0 Michigan. But even that doesn't guarantee greatness (USC-Oklahoma two years ago instantly comes to mind). And what's more, it seems like the college football karma is due to swing back the other way after providing exactly the classic everyone was looking for in last year's National Championship. Ohio State and Texas earlier this year didn't quite live up to the hype, because OSU was simply better.

In 1 vs. 2 or National Championship showdowns, the batting average is still less than .500. Of the BCS National Championship Games, only 02 Miami-Ohio State and 05 USC-Texas have lived up to their billing. In the regular season in the last few years, only a handful of "armageddon" games have lived up to it - one Nebraska-Oklahoma showdown, the 2001 Tennessee-Florida game, and last year's Ohio State/Texas and USC-Notre Dame games come to mind, but that's about it. For every one of those, there are double the anticipated, national attention grabbing showdowns that turn into letdowns, blowouts, or sloppy football. So now, the table is set for Ohio State and Michigan, with greater intangibles than any regular season matchup that I can ever, ever remember...will the game come through? Will it live up to the expectations?

Even for the Vols, the games that are mammothly hyped usually have a hard time living up to it. I've never seen something hyped the way the 96 UT-Florida game was, and remember what happened? 35-0 Gators in the second quarter. Those two schools have come through twice in our own version of "the game" - in 1999 and 2001 - but those two years seem to me to be the only example in recent memory where the Vols and an opponent lined it up in a Top 5, much anticipated, super-hyped showdown...and the game actually lived up to the billing.

So is it too much to ask tomorrow for a one possession game? Is it too much to ask for drama in the 4th quarter? I think it'll be close (the official predicition is Ohio State 21-20), but can college football produce the expected "Game of the Century" four times in fifteen months?

For me, I'm going to try not to worry about the expectations, hopefully enjoy watching the Vols earn revenge on the Dores earlier in the day, and then just try to watch and enjoy. Even if it's a letdown or blowout...it should still be good television.

A Look Ahead: SEC Quarterbacks in 2007

Something that I've had several conversations about and heard a couple different announcers talk about merited some research this evening during the breaks in the UT/UNCW game in the Preseason NIT (bonus points for the ESPNU commercial with the Texas A&M fan who refuses to say "Hook 'Em Horns" during a game of pictionary: "Paper. Taco meat." You'll have to see it to understand)...at the start of this season, there were only two senior quarterbacks starting in the SEC - Chris Leak and Joe Tereshinski - and neither Florida nor Georgia is going to be worried about the quarterback position in 2007. This doesn't need any extra analysis other than saying that all twelve quarterbacks who will go under center in August 2007 in the SEC will be experienced players with excited fan bases...take a look at this list:

(class (Jr/Sr etc) is what they'll be in 07)

Alabama - John Parker Wilson (Jr)
Arkansas - Mitch Mustain (So)
Auburn - Brandon Cox (Sr)
Florida - Tim Tebow (So)
Georgia - Matthew Stafford (So)
Kentucky - Andre' Woodson (Sr)
LSU - JaMarcus Russell (Sr)
Ole Miss - Brent Schaeffer (Sr)
Miss. State - Michael Henig (Jr)
South Carolina - Blake Mitchell (Sr)
Tennessee - Erik Ainge (Sr)
Vanderbilt - Chris Nickson (Jr)

Preseason All-SEC pick? The reality is, all twelve of these guys could end up earning a spot on the team. The Year of the Quarterback will be upon us in 2007.

Preseason NIT

The Vols tipoff tonight in Nashville in the 16 team Preseason NIT. The event is really headlined by five teams in four regions - the Vols being the draw in Nashville - with the hopes that without any upsets, you'll get a huge NIT Final Four at Madison Square Garden next Wednesday-Friday. But the road isn't all clear to NYC for any of the big dogs - #2 North Carolina will probably run into the same Winthrop team that gave the Vols all they wanted in last year's NCAA Tournament, while out west the Adam Morrison-less Gonzaga is in a bracket anyone could win with Baylor and Colorado State. There are two big draws in the midwest bracket, which should provide a Notre Dame vs. Indiana showdown if the Irish can get past Butler tonight. And for the Vols in Nashville, Fordham won't be a pushover, and should UT win tonight they'll get the winner of Belmont and UNC-Wilmington tomorrow night.

Despite the exhibitions and the 30 point win over MTSU, you still have no feel whatsoever for this Tennessee team. The contests with Fordham and Belmont/Wilmington will teach us a few things, but for the Vols to really figure out what they've got, they've got to get to New York. If they can do that, they'll catch the winner of the midwest bracket (probably Notre Dame or Indiana). If you get to NYC you're guaranteed two games, so even if they fall there they'll still play a consolation game. The big prize, and the big target, is of course #2 North Carolina, who on paper is the absolute favorite (the Vols at #24 are the next highest ranked team in the field, though Gonzaga is first on the also receiving votes list). It's important for the Vols to get to the finals just to play the Tar Heels in terms of RPI (which is really weird to be writing about those three letters at a time when we're usually more concerned with the other big three - BCS - around here in mid-November). The prize is out there for the Vols, but stumbling in Nashville over the next two days is also certainly possible. Getting to New York is the goal, and once there Tennessee would be the more talented team against whoever they faced in the semifinals. We'll see how far Bruce Pearl and the boys can take this...the fun starts tonight at 8:00 on ESPNU.

Preseason NIT Bracket

Where to next?

Darren McFadden is the real deal. Unless something totally shocking happens next week with Mississippi State, I can't wait to see what he does against LSU, and then against Florida. If Arkansas wins both of those games, they may still find themselves behind Texas (and should find themselves behind a one loss Southern Cal team no matter what)...but hats off to Houston Nutt, who was on his way out of town in August and now is on the threshold of something great, and for years to come.

Now, for the home team...where do we go from here? We're not assuming wins over Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but if the Vols manage that and finish 9-3 and ranked somewhere in the Top 20, can they crack January 1? Florida and Arkansas - who should meet in Atlanta - will find the winner landing in New Orleans or Glendale, and the loser playing in a big bowl (Florida would go to Orlando, Arkansas would be a huge draw in Dallas). Then you've got LSU and Auburn - LSU may not get to Atlanta, but would probably get in the BCS at-large if they beat Arkansas. That's the best case scenario for the Vols, which would free up another spot on January 1. If LSU loses to Arkansas, the Tigers will still find their way to January 1 easily, which leaves the Vols and Auburn in the hunt for the Outback Bowl. And despite the collapse against Georgia today, winning the Iron Bowl might make the Tigers a more attractive pick than the Vols (Jacksonville and the Outback Bowl hate the Vols - last time we were there was January 1, 1993).

(That was a nice play by Bret Smith to score a TD)

Now regardless of the fact that UGA plays an hour from the Georgia Dome, and even if they beat Georgia Tech, there should be no excuse for the Chik-fil-A (old Peach) Bowl to pick them over us. Potential opponent? The dreaded Tennessee-Virginia Tech matchup that will likely get me fired for either taunting after a win, or punching someone in the face should they beat us. Still a chance for 10 wins and a good season if you win the next two and win your bowl game.

This one tonight hurts - and is causing flashbacks to Nebraska 97 and Kansas State 00 - but the Vols will live and learn.

(That was also a great replay shot on what should be the next to last play of the Arkansas DB leading with his head, getting hit, and instantly checking to see if he had feeling in his hands.)

Let's also say this - whether it's Crompton or Ainge next week, and despite this loss - we need to get payback against Vanderbilt. Big time. Period.

Tennessee is getting no love and lots of disrespect

Live from Memphis - the crossroads of the Tennessee/Arkansas "rivalry" - and I'm seeing red. Arkansas, as documented below, is as much as a 6.5 point favorite. On CollegeFootballNews.com's staff picks, the Hogs swept the board (they even won the coin toss). Arkansas can run. Darren McFadden is the best player in the SEC. They play a physical game that no one else can play these days in the SEC. Erik Ainge is hurt and won't start. Tennessee had three players suspended. We're still heartbroken over LSU and being eliminated from Atlanta. And even the Casey Dick story is getting the friendly Razorback spin - he was hurt in August, wasn't an option in the USC loss, and is good enough, apparently, to warrant pulling the QB that won you eight straight after one series in Columbia. All signs point to Arkansas, right?

Am I missing something here? Am I so UT-biased that I can't see what an obvious favorite the Pigs are on Saturday to everyone else?

Do you know what I think can happen? I think the Vols can bust these guys. Now, we're using the word "can" and not "will", so let's not throw me under the orange-tinted bus just yet. But I can remember some situations in the past five or six years where the Vols were given no chance - at Georgia in 04, at Miami in 03, at Florida in 01 - against legitimate quality opponents. Is Arkansas 06 in the same breath as anything resembling those teams? Yes, they demolished Auburn when they caught them sleeping. But don't tell me that 50-14 is a throwaway number. Those are the same guys putting on their unis today. And don't tell me that if Vanderbilt and Alabama know how to close, that this isn't a 6-3 team that's thinking upset instead of an 8-1 "juggernaut" that everyone in the free world is picking to close out the Vols.

Even with Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee can bust these guys. I'll take 3-2, and I'll take 50-49 if it comes down to six overtimes again. And sure, Arkansas is a good football team playing at home with plenty of reasons to win. But throwing the Vols in the discard pile seems irrational, quick, and frankly I hope the boys in orange are paying attention to it this week. This isn't 2005. We're still Tennessee. Unleash the fury.

Random Thoughts - Monday Evening

Every play counts in the SEC. Now that Georgia has earned the dubious honor of pulling the Vanderbilt/Kentucky double (and almost earned the Mississippi State trifecta), it's safe to say with certainty that there's nothing free in this conference anymore. But what you saw on Saturday in Neyland Stadium was something that felt like a playoff baseball game, where every pitch, every out counted. Although the Vols came out on the losing end, that was one of those classic, hanging on every play ballgames that seems to come along only once or twice a year. If Tennessee wins what has become the most important game of the season at Arkansas next week - where the Vols are six point underdogs?! And the over/under is 47? Have you seen us stop the run all year? Have you seen anybody stop us passing? Seems like taking the Vols and the over is free money, but that's why they play the games... - if the Vols win, and win out, 2006 is going to feel a lot like 2001, with plenty of memorable victories, and the only two games you lost twist in your gut like a knife, because you were right there, and despite some glaring stats (like -12 yards rushing, or getting beat in time of possession by twenty-one minutes), you're one penalty and one 3rd down stop away from playing for the National Championship. Beating Arkansas - with ESPN College GameDay on hand again - is the difference between a good year and an average one.

Erik Ainge should be pissed...because God knows I am. In 2004, Erik Ainge gets hurt on a misfired shotgun snap at the end of the first half against Notre Dame. Are the Vols trying to score? Not really, because they ran a draw and didn't call timeout on the previous play. So why are we taking shotgun snaps? The result: Tennessee loses a game they shouldn't have lost and eventually falls out of the BCS. Two weeks ago at South Carolina, Erik Ainge gets hurt on a quarterback draw - which really needs no further analysis - and the result is another Tennessee loss that shouldn't have been the following week, and potentially missing out on the BCS. If you're keeping score, that's one for Randy Sanders, and one for David Cutcliffe. Not sure if he'll play/start this week or not, but I've never seen a more important player get hurt on a more frustrating play call and have it cost us so much. Twice.

The NFL is the $$$ version of the SEC. Need proof? The defending Super Bowl champs are 2-6. And despite the efforts of the lowly Titans to prove me wrong, all 32 teams are capable of beating anyone, every single week. It seems like there are 4 or 5 huge games every week featuring potential title contenders, and you've got a ton of teams (Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Panthers) who were thought to be Super Bowl contenders who are only .500. You've got a great story in New Orleans. This is the most entertaining NFL season I can remember, to this point.

Peyton Manning is a ring away from being in the "greatest quarterback of all time" discussion. The Denver defense - #1 in the league before eating 34 points from the Colts - was comparing him to Michael Jordan. He got the best of the Patriots again last night. Of the great quarterbacks of our generation, I remember Joe Montana being the surefire bet to win. I remember Dan Marino putting up insane numbers. I remember John Elway's drive and two Super Bowl performances. I remember Troy Aikman getting it done with immense talent around him. You can still check out, in limited quantity, Brett Favre's playmaking. But if/when Manning gets a ring (and as long as he does so without throwing 4 picks in a 7-6 game or something), you may not have a better combination of all of those things up there than what you get in Peyton. As a Vol fan, I try and take time to watch and enjoy him whenever I can (since he's about three dozen times more fun to watch than the Titans right now)...but you have to wonder if the general public is seeing the same thing. I remember watching Larry Bird, still my alltime sports hero, and thinking that if he missed a shot, that was a rarity. When the Colts have the ball and don't score a touchdown, you feel like the defense has really stepped it up. Manning is that good - and as my Colts-before-Titans father pointed out this weekend, well done on giving the money to Reggie Wayne and not Edgerrin James. Seriously, one ring away. Best quarterback of all time.

The money I spent on the Fox Sports Net package on DirecTV to catch the Celtics' games on Fox Sports New England was a poor investment. Let me try and paraphrase what one of the ex-Celtics (they all speak in a thick Boston accent that I don't readily understand, so I'm not sure if it was Cousy or someone else) said on the opening night telecast: "They're not playing any defense, and they can't score." Boston looks great in transition, and Paul Pierce is the only one looking great anywhere else. They're 0-3 out of the gate. Red is looking for his cigars and can't find them anywhere.

The Basketball Vols are ranked in both preseason polls. 24 in the Coaches, 25 in the AP, Year Two of Bruce Pearl officially begins on Friday night. You're going to see youth and you're going to see athleticism, but will it translate into wins? The SEC is, of course, deep (in the AP poll: Gators 1, LSU 5, Bama 11, Kentucky 22, Vols 25, and Arkansas is getting votes) and it'll be different this year than last...but anybody who hasn't put their faith in Bruce Pearl yet isn't paying attention. The simple fact that we're ranked and talking about the basketball team the week before the season opener means he's done a good job. As Mike Hamilton says, "expect to win."

What we're learning on Thursday Night...

As I type this, Louisville has just scored again and it's 44-27 with 10:19 to play. Before tonight, I said that the winner of this game deserved to play the winner of Ohio State/Michigan for the National Championship.

Now I'm not so sure.

This has been fun to watch, without question. But these guys can't stop anybody. I know West Virginia won the Sugar Bowl last year, and I know what Louisville did to Miami. But are either of these teams among the five best playing right now? Do they deserve it?

What really worries me about the BCS is the potential for an Ohio State/Michigan rematch. Because if that happens...what was the point of playing the first game?? I don't care what the computers say, you shouldn't lose to a team, and then turn right around and get to play them again for the whole ball of wax without someone else losing in front of you (a la Florida/FSU '96). To have the loser of the OSU/Michigan game land at #2 in the BCS the following week will undermine the regular season in ways the computers haven't quite figured out how to do yet...but it's knocking on the door.

The polls should generally be thrown out in this case anyway...let's talk about what's right.

- It's right for the winner of Ohio State and Michigan to be #1 and play for the National Championship. It's right for the loser to automatically be out of the conversation.

- It's right that the pecking order should be Auburn-Florida-Tennessee-California in any poll, period, among those four teams. It's right that if Arkansas wins out, they jump all of those teams. And it's right that if Southern Cal wins out, they're ahead of Arkansas.

- It's right to not automatically rank Texas as the highest team with one loss just because it came to Ohio State and they're the defending National Champions.

- It's right to want to punch Charlie Weis in the face and tell him to shut up, the BCS has done enough for Notre Dame already, thank you very much.

- It's right that if Texas, Southern Cal, California, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, or Tennessee finish with one loss...eh, I can't quite type "they should be ranked ahead of Louisville". I don't know. Seems unfair.

College football may be the greatest sport in the world, but it can make your head hurt. Imagine how much fun we'd be having talking about an eight team playoff right now.