Big Market Sports

Watching Mike & Mike this morning on ESPNEWS, recalling a conversation they had with David Stern about the concerns with the New York Knicks - arguably, at this moment in time, the worst professional franchise in any sport - and Stern, of course, said it wasn't that big of a deal. Is it? The Governator has been involved with movements to get an NFL team in Los Angeles. Would the league be much better off if someone was playing in LA?

If the money and the television ratings are truly in the big cities, would the respective commissioners want the biggest markets possible to make the playoffs each year? Would that instantly turn into the biggest ratings in each of the big three sports? Are the big market teams really in a better position to compete in the biggest sports? Here are the ficticious playoff scenarios for the NFL, NBA, and MLB involving the largest possible market teams seeded top to bottom - some interesting scenarios (each city gets only one team per playoffs):

Big Market NFL Playoffs
AFC
1. Houston Texans
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. New England Patriots
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC
1. New York Giants
2. Chicago Bears
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Carolina Panthers
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Dallas Cowboys

Big Market NFL Super Bowl: New York Giants vs. Houston Texans

Big Market NBA Playoffs
EAST
1. New York Knicks
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Detroit Pistons
6. Indiana Pacers
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. Boston Celtics

WEST
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Houston Rockets
3. Phoenix Suns
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Seattle Sonics
8. Denver Nuggets

Big Market NBA Finals: New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Big Market MLB Playoffs
AL
East - New York Yankees
Central - Detroit Tigers
West - Seattle Mariners
Wild Card - Baltimore Orioles

NL
East - Washington Nationals
Central - Chicago Cubs
West - Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card - Houston Astros

Big Market World Series: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

(US City Population numbers from www.infoplease.com)

What are we learning? The NFL seems to be the least affected by big markets, with some of the most popular teams based in small markets (Green Bay). The NFL is still affected by individual performances - though not like the NBA - so I think the NFL brass would rather see a Peyton Manning & Michael Vick Super Bowl than a New York team playing (remember when the Giants played the Ravens? Yuck.) The NFL also holds rich tradition across the board, so the front office also wouldn't mind seeing the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, or seeing the 49ers start winning again.

The NBA - although any NY-LA series, such as the Knicks-Lakers, would earn a few extra dollars - is built around individuals more than anything else. The front office in the NBA is pulling for a Miami-Cleveland Eastern Conference Finals in 2007 - two small market teams - harder than anything else, and then a Miami-LA Finals (and not because it's LA, because it's Shaq and Kobe). A team with no stars will suffer in the ratings no matter where they play in the NBA - the Pistons and Spurs weren't disliked because they were smaller markets, they were disliked because their superstars weren't exciting.

Major League Baseball appears to be the most affected by big markets, and that system bleeds into team salaries. And MLB is least affected by individual performances. A Yankees-Dodgers World Series would pull in the ratings. There's also an emphasis on tradition - the city of Boston, while lower on population numbers than some other cities, pulls in the TV ratings, and let's be honest, we all enjoy Yankees-Red Sox. By contrast, if this year's World Series is something like Detroit vs. Houston...well, you get the point.

It's clear then, that the most lucrative/most exciting playoffs/championships aren't based on just the biggest markets at all. You could make a similar argument about college football/basketball. So, what would be the best possible championship scenarios for the fans and the front office in sports? That's for another day...